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Spengler

The Dead’s Envy for the Living

November 26th, 2013 - 4:24 am
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The difference, to be sure, is that Germany’s decline was by no means inevitable in 1938, while Iran’s decline cannot be reversed. Iran’s leaders know this quite well. Its universities have competent demographers who helped frame the first studies of Iran’s fertility decline, and its leaders have inveighed for years against the failure of Iranian women to bear children. Persian-language websites warn of the tidal wave of elderly dependents who will swamp Iran’s economy. For all the public anguish the situation gets worse by the year. Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute is doing the definitive work on this.

Why should Iran’s fertility decline so drastically? In my 2011 book How Civilizations Die (and How Islam is Dying, Too), I observed that Muslim countries jump from infancy to senescence without passing through adulthood. Wherever Muslim countries have wrenched their people out of traditional society into the modern world, a demographic transition has ensued, compressing the slow decline of fertility of the West during the past two centuries into a couple of decades. Literacy (and female literacy in particular) is the best predictor of fertility in Muslim countries: the best educated among them, namely Tunisia, Algeria, and Turkey, also have fallen below replacement fertility. Iran’s fertility fell the fastest in part because the deposed shah set in motion a crash literacy program.

Hitler only hallucinated the exhaustion of a mythical Aryan race: Iran’s leaders live with the certainty that their civilization has barely a generation left before it collapses. Even a modest increase in fertility from present levels would do nothing to avert the coming train wreck, and the problem is getting worse by the year.

What is the “national interest” of a dying country? In the case of Hungary, for example, with a Magyar fertility rate of less than 0.9, it is to ease the transition into oblivion by selling the country to foreigners and turning its capital into a theme park for tourists. One thousand and 100 years ago the Magyars were feared conquerors who threatened the fragile recovery of newly Christianized Europe; today they are a relic. Iran is not so ready to go gently into that demographic night, however. It lashes out against enemies real and imagined, and the enemies it imagines in its worst nightmares are the Jews.

Why the Iranians, and why the Jews? Jew-hatred is rampant in the Muslim world, to be sure, but that did not prevent Egypt and Jordan from keeping the peace with Israel for 30 years. Nor does it prevent Saudi Arabia, where Arabic editions of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion line bookstore shelves, from making a tactical alliance with Israel. Except for Iran no Muslim regime trumpets its intention to “annihilate the Zionist” regime in routine utterances.

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Top Rated Comments   
David,

Wonderful article, but there is a larger story right now I believe.

Please enjoy this very special occasion of Chanukah falling on Thanksgiving...
Nothing else I can think of could so symbolically represents two cultures, ever intertwined on the side of “Light” and “Thanks”, in the face of so much Darkness and Envy.

It is a moment I hope all here and in Israel will savor, and remember forever!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
There will never be another Holocaust for the Jews. The miraculous re-establishment of Jewish sovereignty was not solely through the hand of Man. Israel today is a superpower in every way. Militarily, economically, and spiritually.
We have been a nuclear nation since 1955. We have had the bomb since 1961. No nation in the world has greater facility in this area. The Iranian regime exists today only because we are loathe to use the technology we have. However, if it becomes a matter of life or death it is the Iranians who will be left without a nation.
Obama, the self-absorbed pimp, wants only to delay the inevitable. Grasping at straws to pretend victory once again. Thinking no further than re-electing his cronies and so desperate for a victory to trumpet even a sham one will do. He sees no further than the next election cycle. After that the worlds problems belong to next President.
We in Israel appreciate the support of the many who wish us well and stand beside us. We are here to stay.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
David,

This was an excellent article. Combined with Caroline Glick's article today, it lays out the reasons we have to be very, very scared. You correctly identify that no matter what evidence Israel presents, Obama's heart will not be moved. That is something that some of us - thanks to your 2008 article - have understood for a long, long time. The shame that I see is when Democratic Senators say nothing. The Schumer's and Durbin's of the world are absolutely useless and they are moral cowards. Many of the Republicans (outside of Cruz, Palin, Santorum and Bachmann) are just stupid. And AIPAC - Obama played them like fools over the Syria episode and has made them, along with other American Jews, who correctly understand Obama's hostility, appear to be warmongers acting against American interests. This is long term damage that Obama is causing to American Jews. Meanwhile it is Obama who is actively opposed to American interests: He has sided with a totalitarian, supremacist enemy of the U.S., and has lost of course not just American ally Israel, but the Sunni Arab allies too. Also, Obama, the anti-nuclear weapons guy, has made it much more likely that there will be an arms race in the Middle East. But then, Obama wasn't really against nuclear weapons per se. He was against the U.S. and Israel having advantages over the Muslim Street based on this nuclear weapons advantage.

I pray that Bibi can do something about this. While Bibi has never really acted upon his great words, perhaps he has it in him to defy the American Pharaoh. Perhaps.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (73)
All Comments   (73)
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I often think of the experimental work of Dr. Calhoun and his rats. He found in the 1960s that colonies of rats, if enclosed and provided infinate food, shelter, etc., would self regulate their population, even if there was no physical contraint except space for doing so. Unfortunately the way they regulated their population was...pretty awful. Populations fell into the behavioral sink - males groomed excessively, or faught needlessly. Females failed to give birth, and when they did, treated their young poorly. Stress, alienation, hostility, sexual perversion, parental incompetence, and rabid violence become the norm. Sound familiar?

Islam will die if we PREVENT their conquest of new territory. They must conquer to survive. Containment will destroy them - we will never have to attack them if we behave wisely. Unfortunately we too are falling into the behavioral sink. The end of history is also the end of us. The only question is which survives - Isalm or the west. We started failing first, but they are failing faster.

Calhoun himself saw the fate of the population of mice as a metaphor for the potential fate of man. He characterized the social breakdown as a “spiritual death”, with reference to bodily death as the “second death” mentioned in the Biblical book of Revelation 2:11.

Spirtual uplift can forstall the spiritual death, for it provides us with the infinate space of heaven to expand into. Alternately we need a space program that is vigorous and focused on colinization, not robtoics.

1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Spengler,

Can you write an article with a US perspective on the lessons/advice contained in this article ? [http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=378067&sn=Detail&pid=71616]

I love reading your work.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
The demography-based insight is a profound one. I believe that there is something especially dangerous in Shiite Islam, by the combination of circumstances that saw Persia become Muslim and its Islam intertwined with the Shia rebellion against the Sunni. While many claim that Iranians are not really a Muslim people, and only wait for the moment to throw off Islam, the evidence says otherwise. That their brand of Islam is interwoven with competition with the Arabs - most of whom are Sunni - makes it all the more combustible. It can not be ignored that the US, which essentially had war declared on it by Khomeini 15 or so years before anyone heard of of OBL, has adopted a haphazard policy towards revolutionary Iran ever since. It may be ironic that the invasion/liberation of Iraq resulted in strengthening the regime in Tehran, but it is also a fact. We see in Khamenei's statements, particularly against Jews and Israel, after this junky agreement, that they are merely emboldened.

The agreement is terrible. It leaves them the basis for the bomb, it leaves them a huge number of centrifuges. Now they will be soaked with money - much of which they will use to finish the program. And, almost certainly, they will be importing critical materials with that money. Obama and Kerry have made war a certainty.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
My bible study is reading the book of judges. remarkably the pattern there looks very muc like the tytler cycle Here is the cycle
Bondage
Spiritual Faith
Courage
Liberty
Abundance
Selfishness
Complacency
Apathy
Dependence
Then starting over with Bondage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Fraser_Tytler
http://www.commonsensegovernment.com/article-03-14-09.html

The period of judges ended with the election of saul against the advice of the prophet samuel. his words of caution against kings is worth re reading.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
Chamberlain and Obama were actually in two different situations:

Chamberlain was on the losing end. While he was definitely a fool for trying to negotiate with Hitler, Britain was basically on the losing edge of the delegations between Germany and the UK, outranking them in pretty much everything (armaments, land, negotiations, you name it).

Obama and us in America, however, outclass the Iranians technologically and logistics/supplies wise. His actions are closer to trying to bring us and Israel down. I'm not sure he cares all that much for Islam. After all, he seems to take after his birth father more and is closer to a Marxist, willing to use Muslims if it ensures the spread of Marxist revolution, but otherwise would kill them solely for their religion. Spreading atheism. We must wipe out any and all Marxists, Rousseauists, Leninists, Stalinists, Trotskyists, Maoists, Mihnists, Cheists, and any form of atheistic beliefs if Christianity and Judaism is to survive. The Atheists wanted to have a fight to the death on us since the Enlightenment and kill us Christians and Jewish people off? Well, they're going to get a fight all right.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
"Wipe Out"? I dunno. That is an admission you have nothing to offer.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
More an admission that you've got something truly creepy to offer. I'm a thoroughgoing theist myself, but haven't any use for "allies" like the above.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
At this point, considering how we've got nearly the entire population supporting the legalization of Gay Marriage despite it being against God's laws (HuffPo's stats and other news outlets, not to mention all but three people (those three people including myself) in my "Family" class (which I only took because it was one of the few classes available for the Fall Semester for my American Studies degree), and at least one of my relatives supporting Gay Marriage despite her being a Christian herself), the fact that our mediums are promoting immorality thanks to "freedom of speech and the press", the education system basically teaching things like how all we Christians were monsters, and how all Americans were bad during Vietnam, or how most of Europe, possibly here in America, are losing their Christianity every day due to secularization, even after the fall of the USSR, and worse, Communism seems to actually be increasing, and religion is falling, what exactly am I supposed to do? Especially when Jesus's statement that we should turn the other cheek, or if we go by example, his literally surrendering himself and being abused and killed out of love for humanity (his dying on the Cross) has resulted in several of us being killed wholesale. Don't believe me? Just look at how many Christians were massacred during the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, the Cuban Revolution, the Cultural Revolution, the Korean Revolution, the Vietnam War/Revolution, the Cambodian Revolution, within the USSR, and in various South American revolutions. They are still getting a lot of popular support. Heck, one of my history professors was unapologetically supportive of the French Revolution, and has proven himself to be quite hateful of Catholics. Even worse, we've got "Christian Socialists" (an oxymoron if there ever was one) like Cornel West who are actively sabotaging Christianity from within. Heck, Antonio Gramsci even laid out the groundwork for infiltrating the Church, so no, I can't even trust conversions anymore. Yes, I'm beginning to sound like an absolute nut, but at this point, I'm not even sure if it matters anymore. If Jesus's teachings did not save us from being massacred at high percentages by the Soviets, the Jacobins, the Nazis (yes, they massacred Christians as well), and various Communists/atheists of all stripes, how exactly is surrendering and allowing ourselves to be killed going to even ensure our survival.
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1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
>>"Obama’s commitment to rapprochement with Iran arises from deep personal identification with the supposed victims of imperialism."

And hatred of the Jews. Let's not over think this.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
there is a manor difference between hitler and the iranians: there is a State of Israel now, which there was not at the time of Hitler. Israel has an air force and good weapons and good information. i do not know why it did not attack Iran soon after it was discovered that it is working on developing nuclear weapons. they missed a great opportunity, even though the world would have screamed bloody murder.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
This video says it all:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFu-UU2V2g

A few other observations:
1) The article assumes that what is occurring to day in Iran will continue. In all likelihood it will get or get worse until the current government falls. That may take another 50 years.
2) Populations sky rocketed in the 20th century because of improved high care amount populations that were accustomed to breeding their farm labor. Now that children are seen as a monetary burden people will stop having them. There is no need to search for moral issues to explain the population drop.
3) My guess is that eventually populations will reach a static level without significant loss or gain as the excess produced by an agricultural societies mindset adjust to new economic realities.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
And Rahm Emmanuel and David Axelrod are the Josephus's of our time.
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
David,

Wonderful article, but there is a larger story right now I believe.

Please enjoy this very special occasion of Chanukah falling on Thanksgiving...
Nothing else I can think of could so symbolically represents two cultures, ever intertwined on the side of “Light” and “Thanks”, in the face of so much Darkness and Envy.

It is a moment I hope all here and in Israel will savor, and remember forever!
1 year ago
1 year ago Link To Comment
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