An Israeli Assessment: Conventional Military Threats Have Diminished
Asked whether the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and other Arab countries might foster a supranational strain of radicalism in the Arab world, the official dismissed the scenario as extremely unlikely. “The Arabs are too divided among themselves for a unified Islamist movement to emerge. First, there is the Sunni-Shia split which probably will never be resolved. And within the Sunna, there are deep splits. The Muslim Brotherhood is at odds with the Salafists, for example; the Saudis are Salafist, and that is why the Saudis and the Egyptians are walking on eggshells when they talk to each other.”
As Jerusalem views the world, the official explained, two contradictory trends predominate. One is towards economic integration, and the other is toward geopolitical disintegration. “All through the Arab world the dialogue among intellectuals is about the dysfunction of their countries,” he said. The Arab world may be the most extreme example, he added, but it is not the only one: “Look at Scotland, or Catalonia. Who would have thought fifty years ago that the Scots might be voting on independence from England?”
Iran’s nuclear program remains the great danger, and April will be a pivotal month, the official added, both because of the rate of accumulation of highly enriched uranium, and because the campaign for Iran’s June presidential election will begin in that month. If Iran wants to avoid war, its political leaders will have to signal a change in policy to their own people in the lead-up to the elections.
Israel’s response to these trends is two-fold, the official said.
“The world has learned nothing two generations after the Holocaust,” citing the West’s failure to intervene to stop genocide in Rwanda and its belated response to massacres in southern Sudan. “That is why no-one can take away the right of the Jewish people to defend itself.”
Globalization, though, opens numerous opportunities for the Jewish state to distinguish itself through technology, business, and science. The world needs new energy technologies, more efficient agriculture, better water management, cost-effective medical diagnostics, and a range of other technologies where Israel excels. Israel aspires to a new image as the source of beneficial technologies and scientific achievements that improve the lives of people around the world.
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Image courtesy shutterstock / AHMAD FAIZAL YAHYA / Matteo Festi
Dear Spengler:
Thank you very much for the report. Those of us who love Israel are very concerned with its well being in the wake of the re-election of Hussein Obama. The question before the State of Israel is how should it respond to the certain knowledge that its most important ally is under control of a man whose only connection to the State of Israel is the campaign contributions of a number of Jews, and who otherwise seems to be far more desirous of pleasing the Iranian mullahs and the Muslim Brotherhood, than he is of protecting Israel.
First, your report makes a great deal of sense to me. Israel should not give up. It is surrounded by hostile Arab people, but as much as they hate Jews, they hate and fear each other even more. Israel must play on their divisions and not hesitate to arm both sides when they attack each other.
Second, I do not think that Israel has the military capability to attack Iran and destroy its nuclear weapons program more than temporarily. To do a permanent job would require forces that only the United states now posses, which Hussein Obama would never consent to be deployed against the ummah of his birth.
Therefor Israel should use every effort to pursue technical means of missile defense. But, even the best defense will not be one hundred percent effective. Therefore Israel should also make civil defense an immediate priority.
Every residence and commercial building in Israel should be equipped with underground shelters with 2 weeks of food and water. A nuclear attack is a devastating thing to absorb, but most of the people who will die in one, will die from radiation and fires that are the secondary effects of the blast. Most of those deaths can be prevented. Further, the Iranians are not so capable that they can be sure of hitting the center of their targets. An Iranian missile aimed at Tel Aviv has a decent chance of blowing up in the sea, but the clouds of radioactive steam that it would create could be deadly, but not to a protected population.
The Swiss created such a system during the Cold War: “La Place de la Concorde Suisse” by John McPhee:
– http://www.amazon.com/Place-Concorde-Suisse-John-McPhee/dp/0374519323/
Israel’s military is based on the Swiss example. Israel’s civil defense, should be based on the Swiss example also.
It would have the additional effect of blunting missile attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah.
Third, Israel needs make it clear to the Iranians that the Palestinians are hostages to their good behavior. This means that there will be no “peace process” as long as the Iranians pursue nuclear weapons. Israel would not intentionally harm Palestinians, but if there is a crisis in Israel caused by Iranian attack, all resources will devoted to saving Jewish lives. Damage to water and electricity supplies will hurt Palestinians deeply. Finally, that Mosque has a mortgage on it. Any Iranian missile that lands on Israel will damage it.
Fourth, The question of what to do about Jews who claim an exemption from military service because of their studies has been answered. Any Jew who cannot participate in the defense of Israel is a danger to the community. Every Jew in Israel should undergo military training immediately. Anyone who refuses should be escorted to the nearest border and kicked out. No exemptions should be given and no compromises should be made.
Walter Sobchak says “Every Jew in Israel should undergo military training immediately. Anyone who refuses should be escorted to the nearest border and kicked out. No exemptions should be given and no compromises should be made.”
I knew a guy in college who finished high school in the summer of ’73 and made aliyah. Guess what he was doing in October ’73. After the cease fire he went with his IDF buddies to Jerusalem, and one of the ultra-relgious spit on him for smoking on the Sabbath. He left Israel. His attitude was, why should a Canadian get shot at while ‘Torah scholars’ could sit in safety at the cost of Jewish blood lost by other Jews. My son is friends with an Israeli he met at church, a Hebrew speaking Catholic, who left Israel after doing his military service. The Israeli has a legally Jewish mother from Russia. The Catholic “Jew” put his body on the line for Israel.
I’m afraid I have to agree with Walter about the ultra-religious.
Where I disagree is his threat to Iran to have no ‘peace process’ with the Palestinians until Iran drops its nuclear program. I know many middle-easterers. The Jews in the Holy Land are the second most hated people in the middle east. Palestinians are the most hated. I once spoke with an Iraqi Shi’ite, who had nothing good to say about Jews. Among the perfidious things that Jews had done was, “They had a chance to kill all the Palestinians and they didn’t. “F***ing Jews”.
RICanuck
I believe your story. But I think it needs some updating. The “blackhats” of Israel are not a monolith. A major development in the IDF in recent years is the number of Orthodox sects in Israel that have embraced military service. Quite a few of them are coming around and there are specifically “haredim” units in the army (punch it up on YouTube).
In fact, this phenomena has caused some disquiet among the beautiful people in Israel. The liberal smart set is starting to complain that the military is growing more and more religious and conservative and no longer representative of the general population…does that sound familiar?
Furthermore, the religious exemptions are back on the political table and quite a few Israelis are convinced its days are numbered.
As a Chareidi myself (I was too old when I came for service to even be an issue), there are two issues that will need to do a 180 first.
1. The destruction of religious freedom in the military, the betrayal of the special “Chareidi” units, and the emasculating of the Chaplaincy.
2. The women’s draft. The army spokesman actually brags that we are the only country in the world that forces its women into uniform. Half of the women take a religious exemption; some do a year of national service, some two, some none. From our end, the girls will go to jail before they will allow themselves to be drafted for anything, “even to say psalms”. Shall we draft the Druze girls also, when their men have lost more blood than any other group?
If you are going to draft all of the men then kill the stupid socialist-inspired women’s draft altogether.
Oh, and either draft all of the Arabs or admit before all of the world that we don’t trust 20% of our citizens with guns. No more games.
I said everybody, I meant everybody. Women too. Israel is 5 million Jews against 1.5 billion Muslims. Everybody must be part of the defense. In modern warfare there is a lot of tail for each tooth. There are plenty of roles for women that do not involve heavy lifting or dangerous high explosives.
A lot of the “beautiful people” have kids who no not serve; they cliam to be “unsuitable” or “conciencious objectors”.
Walter, in response to your analysis, you (and others) will be very interested in this…and it is from the master of all masters, in nuclear warfare doctrine!
Read it in full…and absorb its import – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/11/15/irans-wmd-genocidal-project-oxford-university-press-highlights-professor-louis-rene-beres-my-mentor-the-legal-basis-for-pre-emption-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/
Any questions, feel free to query at the ‘About’ tab at the blog.
Kutnick: Thank you for the essays. It’s a bit much for me to digest on screen, so I have printed them and will read them later.
However, my view remains that civil defense is cheap, easy, and fits into Israel’s model.
Walter Russel Mead believes that the current affair with Hamas is a terrific opportunity for Israel to market its technical weapons skills:
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/11/18/the-dawning-age-of-missile-defense/
Much better then the previous article David. Petraeus merely did what has been done in the middle east for decades. Passed out money to those that would otherwise do violence. In Iraq the Anbar Awakening was unique to Iraq. The Sunnis asked for US help to rid them of Al Qaeda. In Afghanistan there was nothing remotely similar.
Israel today attacks Gaza and Egypt can do nothing. But for things to turn out well Israel needs to vary aware of when to let up on the accelerator.
“All through the Arab world the dialogue among intellectuals is about the dysfunction of their countries,” he said. The Arab world may be the most extreme example, he added, but it is not the only one: ‘Look at Scotland, or Catalonia. Who would have thought fifty years ago that the Scots might be voting on independence from England?’”
Not to mention Texas, Louisiana, etc, etc. So for once the US is on the same page as the rest of the world. I hope our feckless political-media elites will find satisfaction in this.
I fear with respect to the secessionist talk, while it represents a minority of a minority (only a small group of people who fear an Obama unbound in his second term think breaking up the Union should even be contemplated)…it is useful for certain demonization purposes. That is to say for denouncing as neo-Confederates those who propose the Jeffersonian remedy of nullifying unConstitutional laws and the states WITHIN THE UNION acting as the last line of defense against an increasingly bankrupt and tyrannical Washington by acting to secure the monetary power which the states never ceded (check the post-Civil War Supreme Court rulings).
Jefferson after all wrote to Tennessee state officials at one point proposing that they nullify the Alien and Sedition Acts. That’s a far cry from South Carolina trying to nullify a tariff it resented as imposed by Northerners that Andrew Jackson ultimately threatened to uphold through force. The tariff was Constitutional though objectionable, the Alien and Sedition Acts were not Constitutional. Neither would a UN gun ban treaty that willfully trampled upon the basic Second Amendment right, however we may quibble about the types of arms it includes.
If you’ll notice there are a number of ‘petitions’ being sent to the White House proposing to deport and strip every person who signed in favor of peaceful secession of their U.S. citizenship. Problem, reaction, solution. The Hegelian dialect of control. See the notorious Small Wars Journal ‘what if we have to fight the Tea Party in South Carolina?’ article. Even those affiliated with the SWJ loosely don’t want to talk about it anymore.
The secession petitions are just a joke Mr. X. There are very few people signing them that are serious.
However I would like to see a petition asking Obama to prosecute for hate crimes, those demanding signers of the secession petitions be deported.
They will take the rest of us down with them; the Left will feed off the private sector host until they kill it. Then they’ll blame the victim for expiring. I wish divorce wasn’t necessary, but four decades living in California have convinced me they’re hopeless, and disastrous to what we value.
That is the way of the world my friend. People want guarantees for life. But alas such guarantees are very fleeting things at best.
Secession petitions…somehow I just don’t think that putting your name and address on one of them would be a very intelligent thing to do…
Tim, as against I am about obama and his plans for our country, I have thought it over and I agree with you about not signing a secession petition. To sigh one would only be symbolic at best, like to get ones resentments out. The internet has a long memory and the gov’t. keeps track of everything we do on it. Lets say, for example, that one of our grand children chose to serve in one of the branches of the military or got a chance to work in an important position in the gov’t. If the gov’t or military went into the family or close contacts memory bank and this fact came up, I think the higher advancement of the grand child (example), would be doomed. So this is a good reason for one to think before typing ones present resentments, disagreements with gov’t. or the military. We have our rights, but we also may be the downfall in the future of a loved one, grand child. So I am rethinking my habits of expression as of late.
I had a bright young man added to my 4th platoon in the fall of 1967 (Vietnam). We were the heavy weapons platoon, but we shared all the responsibilities of the riffle platoons also, so we did double time! This young man was from the New England States and like me he was drafted. He was highly intelligent and had been schooled in journalism in college, but had ran out of money to stay in school. He was writing stories about what he was experiencing in the war from a combat advantage point for his hometown newspaper. We became good friends. I asked how he ended up in Vietnam in an infantry M.O. ( military occupation, we were 11-C/ mortar, 11-B/ riffle trained, we were both)? He said his Father had gone to some communist party meeting when his Father was young and because of that record, verbal or written (?), my friend, fellow patriot was denied any national security clearance. So the infantry was his suit. I was wounded at Lock Nin in Nov. of 67 when our Battalion was air lifted in, to take back the special forces camp, that had been over-run by the NVA. I was medi-vaced out the next day. So I was out of the bush until after the beginning of the Tet Offensive of 1968, because of my injuries. One day during this period of time, word came to me that my friend from New England had been killed by a bullet in the head while in combat. So he will always be my hero. I will have to go to the BLACK WALL in Washington, D.C. and hope I can recall his name from the approx. date. I spent most of the rest of my life trying to forget as much as I could about my year in Vietnam. Much of it I can not I can not get out of my head and still spend late nights sleepless. I like many Vets have PTSD and have never been treated for it. My friend was a great loss to our country, as I believe he would have gone far with his talent and had a bright future. I don’t want to take the chance that any of my future off-springs fall into the same misfortune as my friend did, so this day I will start to think more carful about what I put on the internet, because of what I fear it could mean to them and their futures. My future is over, theirs are yet to be ventured. I love my country, I just feel sad about what I see happening to it from on high. I feel I must have hope for the future of our country, for to give up on it, would be to die while still alive.
“The clout of the Arab League is falling, and Arab oil is becoming less important.”
Really? Is the Chevy Volt selling by the millions now?
I think HG the Israeli source is saying that shale oil and even more crude from places like Russia, Canada, and parts of South America are making the Middle East less vital to global oil output. That’s not to say Saudi Arabia will imminently go bankrupt, only that they face an erosion of oil revenues at a time when they’re trying to bribe their people at an ever higher pace and keep their jobless young men doing busy work as opposed to rioting over their lack of prospects and inability to do jobs Saudi Aramco must hire foreigners to do. Russia unlike the Saudis has a far better educated population and also timber, metals/mining and the grain belt of Eurasia together with Ukraine, Belarus and Kazahkstan to fall back on should oil prices tumble.
Brent looks close to 110 while much of Europe is in a full blown deep depression. Peak oil looks very real from that part of the world.
Saudi Arabia is going to matter for a very long time.
Peak Oil is a cinch when you refuse to drill frackable methane.
Is it any wonder that OPEC is funding ecology-barbarian agitprop — and having big government shut down even trial exploration of gas reservoirs able to sustain Europe for a century?
There is no peak oil. Crude is an abiotic substance, as the Russian and Ukrainian geologists have demonstrated and any astronomer who knows Saturn’s Moon Titan is brimming with hydrocarbons can tell you. But I’ll grant we might be looking at the end of cheap oil thanks to global demand and fracking being more cost intensive than earlier exploration efforts.
Instead we’re facing peak government, peak debt, peak derivatives, and perhaps not too long from now peak government dependency/zombiefication without an even more horrifying drop in living standards, until millions are content to live in a FEMA provided bunk-hovel somewhere where New Jersey used to be.
Actually, while the Middle East accounts for less than half of world’s oil production, it contains about two thirds of conventional oil remaining reserves.
Which means that within the next few decades, geopolitical weight of the ME will increase even more, as a larger part of world’s conventional oil production comes from that region.
Regarding shale oil, not only is the picture on its future potential far from clear as of yet, even if the optimistic assessment that it can compensate the future decline in conventional oil production (resulting in delaying Peak Oil at the same time as Peak Conventional Oil happens) turns out to be correct, it remains that its production is much more costly than conventional oil.
In that optimistic case, consequence will be that as oil price remains high (but not astronomically high), the PROFIT MARGIN for ME oil will remain very high.
This second factor will further enhance Middle-East geopolitical weight during the next decades.
Forty-years ago, Arab populations were much smaller. Their lifestyle expectations were low. The autocrat could shut off oil exports and endure the lost ‘mining rent.’
Today, the petro-autocracies have ramping populations with ramping expectations. So, oil export embargoes are not politically tolerable anymore. Even Tehran is all bark and no bite.
Further, trade is mostly balanced. The ability of despots to accumulate vast assets in the West has passed. (mostly) Indeed, even KSA needs to receive approximately $85/bbl just to cover its ‘nut.’ This hurdle is due entirely to social spending by the Royal Family. They have to keep spending large just to stay on the throne.
So, even though their lifting costs are astonishingly low, their all-up cost for their exports holds an embedded (social) export tax causing it to trade $80-$99/bbl.
The ramping exponential growth in Saudi entitlements is THE one undiscussed economic factor that ought to be front and center. Soon, the magic kingdom’s population is going to reach the edge of the Petri dish. The rose is going to go off the bloom.
Between traditional oil, fracking, shale oil, etc., the U.S. has more oil than Saudi Arabia. Even with Obama reelected, we will be energy-independent within a few years and will not need Arabian oil. Indeed, we will be a net exporter, which means, with the U.S. as a supplier, other countries will be less dependent on, perhaps even independent of, Arabian oil.
Finally someone passing good information. The US will be the world’s LARGEST exporter of oil in 5 to 7 years. With the Arab world more and more divided one can predict that the Saudis will feed oil mostly to China, Russia will feed oil to Europe and the US will have cheap energy again. Paying the mostly internal national debt will be possible. Our mission now is to endure the implosion of the Progressives as they implement their policies within the next few years and become the target of popular anger. At this juncture if the US can survive as a union not only of states but of citizens of all kinds, if we abandon all the divisive ideas of the American Left (race division, class division, etc.) this country has a bright future. But … we must walk the valley of shadows first.
It’s a big stretch from projecting the US will be the largest *producer* to a fantasy that we’ll be the largest exporter. In fact, we’ll be *consuming* almost every drop we extract. There will be some exports of course – of natural gas certainly and refined products – as well as some quantities of oil from regions where it’s more profitable to ship to Asian consumers, for example, balanced by imports in other regions. That’s the best we can look forward to.
Are you under the impression that the US does not currently export petroleum products? If so, you may want to revisit your opinion.
This is not to say that the US will or will not be ‘energy independent,’ but there are facts that make your reasoning problematic.
The picture is much less clear, and much less rosy, than reported.
You may find this analysis informative:
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/11/13/iea-oil-forecast-unrealistically-high-misses-diminishing-returns/
Predictions about US becoming energy-independent recall predictions about Internet stocks prices always increasing up to the sky…
Thank God for some good news as we get stuck with Obama for four more years. I hope this is true for Israel. Iran is a another factor. It wants to make the Sunni states into Shiite states. It wants to dictate oil prices and output. With nukes it is in a better position too. It gets seen by Muslims as the strongest, boldest Muslim nation. One to look up to and be obeyed. Even imitate by converting to Shiite Islam
Soetoro ONLY four more years?
One can only hope.
The fact is that once the Chicago Machine is up and running it is never displaced — and its ambit never deviates from parasitism.
———-
If the election was stolen, a reasonable assumption, then we’ve been Hugo Chavez’d — and will never see the end of presidential selections. Chavez, still alive, still in office, has lasted way, way beyond his constitutional ‘pull date.’
Soetoro = The Pope of DC.
Shale oil may be slightly overhyped, but I doubt by too much. European shale gas we all recall cerca 2007 was supposed to doom Gazprom but didn’t quite pan out, particularly in Hungary and Poland where fracking bans (unlike France) were not in the cards.
However shale oil, including from Russia’s gigantic Bazhenov field (which is anywhere from 10 to 50 times the size of the Bakken/Three Forks in North Dakota/Montana/Saskachetwan over a larger landmass in Western Siberia), is going to be very very important over the next fifty years.
Who knows? If Saudi Arabia’s supergiant fields continue to get drained Iraq might take over as the top Mideast producer, led by the fields in Kurdistan.
That’s an OLD prediction of mine.
It’s a cinch to be true: Iraq has plenty of fresh water, which permits much higher recoveries during secondary flood operations.
That, and, because of Saddam’s repellent policies, Iraq has far more attractive virgin prospects. The CIA fact sheet on Iraq was amended after 21st century prospecting. It is now regarded as having more reserve potential than KSA. Unlike KSA, Iraq has viable prospects just about all over the countryside. It’s amazing.
One elephant is astride the Kuwaiti border. Politics has kept it untapped. It’s practically astride the Persian Gulf. It has to be the cheapest oil to lift and embark on the planet.
Down the road, I expect that Iraqi exports will cause some variation on the LOOP terminal to be built outside the mouth of the Persian Gulf. It’s the only practical way for Iraq to ramp up exports. As it is, the strait is jammed with tankers.
To make an obvious point overlooked by the Jerusalem expert, the future belongs to those who have the most children.
No. Demographic bombs don’t detonate; population projections last no more than one generation. There are too many variables covering the size of families for it to be less than a truly chaotic system, which cannot be predicted in the long term.
Economics gives us a better view. And the big winners in the near future will probably be China, South-East Asia and South America. Other than oil, the Arab worl has nothing to offer.
Only with all other factors being equal. Israel’s demographic vitality is, to a great extent, driven by the ultra-Orthodox sector (and to a lesser extent by the Arab and especially Bedouin sector). OECD reports continue to show low rates of economic participation by ultra-Orthodox males and Arab females. Which means they don’t work and don’t pay taxes, yet drain state resources. The end result is that Jerusalem, for example, not only has a non-Zionist majority but is also economically the poorest city in Israel.
Now, that is something to be worried about. No nation, no civilization, really, can handle too high a percentage of drones, i.e. totally non-productive individuals. (It should be noted that homemakers and children are not drones – they contribute to the well being of the nation in one case and grow up to become productive in the other.) The precise percentage varies with economic strength, population size, cultural factors – but the simple reality is that a big country can tolerate more than a small country can. And Israel, ultimately, is a small country.
I’m not sure what you mean “totally non-productive”. (I assume we apply the same rule to all people engaged in non-scientific study at our heavily subsudised universities.) Generally one partner, at least, is working.
Furthermore, there is a lot of foreign exchange brought in because of the tremendoues number of Americans who come to study at the yeshivot and women’s “seminaries”, not to mention that most religious articles and books come from Israel.
Back to work. I pay 50% taxes at the margin, by the way.
Well, as a Chareidi computer programmer, according to the “official statistics” we are 50% unemployed, since I support my wife. The setup here seems to be designed to force women out of the home.
In fact, the more “extreme”, the Chasidim, are those with the highest employment levels for the men; many of the Rebbes insist the men go out to work after a couple of years of study. The women tend to stay home largely because there are not many workplaces where they feel it would be proper for them to work in. (There are more in the US.) With the more moderate “Lithuanians” the women tend to support their hunsband’s studies, until the situation getts too difficult and the husband finds some sort of employment.
those are exactly the ones without future
Thanks for reporting this, Mr Goldman.
A very interesting and realistic report.
This remark is especially perceptive and important :
<<>>
For Israel to try to reinforce its international image by trying to be an even-better source of much-needed energy, medical or agriculture technologies is an astute and forward-looking policy. Security is based on military power, but not only.
May they be blessed if they really attempt such policy.
Here is the part I was pointing to above:
two contradictory trends predominate. One is towards economic integration, and the other is toward geopolitical disintegration. “All through the Arab world the dialogue among intellectuals is about the dysfunction of their countries,” he said. The Arab world may be the most extreme example, he added, but it is not the only one: “Look at Scotland, or Catalonia. Who would have thought fifty years ago that the Scots might be voting on independence from England?”
Catalonia is a joke. They are the most pathetic collection of parasites dreaming a grandiose past that never existed. They should go back to Africa where they came from.
Here is the remark I was pointing to:
two contradictory trends predominate. One is towards economic integration, and the other is toward geopolitical disintegration. “All through the Arab world the dialogue among intellectuals is about the dysfunction of their countries,” he said. The Arab world may be the most extreme example, he added, but it is not the only one: “Look at Scotland, or Catalonia. Who would have thought fifty years ago that the Scots might be voting on independence from England?”
““The Arabs are too divided among themselves for a unified Islamist movement to emerge. First, there is the Sunni-Shia split which probably will never be resolved. And within the Sunna, there are deep splits. The Muslim Brotherhood is at odds with the Salafists, for example; the Saudis are Salafist, and that is why the Saudis and the Egyptians are walking on eggshells when they talk to each other.””
Yes — and beyond that is Muslem (as opposed to “Arab”) division. The concurrent battle for supremacy is Ottoman vs. Persian vs. Arab. Busy, busy. busy…
Also, I find myself surprised at the full-throated support of the Obama administration, at least so far. Maybe a little credit where credit is due?
Even the Brits are supporting Israel. Hamas went off the deep end and has no allies. Points up the robustness of the Israeli assessment.
Hamas has always been off the deep end. All one has to do is read their early manifestos to know that.
Hamas went off the deep end and has no allies.
Except for CNN?
From that one could conclude that cnn never read their early manifestos.
CNN: “Egypt and Turkey put the onus on Israel to end the fighting around Gaza as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Cairo a day after Washington urged
the two governments to pressure the Palestinians.”
No one is listening to “Washington” Israel is on its own.
Obama failed the test. After speaking to Morsi and Erdogan, both of them turned against Israel. There should be much more outrage about this!!!!
Candidates for political independence from an existing nation:
Kurdistan from Iraq (almost complete), Syria (underway), Turkey and Iran.
Catalonia from Spain
Basque Country (Euskal Herria) from Spain
Corsica from France
Sicily from Italy
Independence Republic of Sardinia from Italy
Venice (Veneto) and surrounding area from Italy
Padania (northern Italy, Lega Nord) from Italy
Scotland from the UK
Belgium into independent Flemish and Walloon nations
Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan (complete)
The various independent states underway presently in old Yugoslavia
State of Cyrenaica from Libya
Azawad from Mali (underway)
Western Sahara from Morocco
Puntland from Somalia (complete)
Somaliland from Somalia (complete)
Canary Islands from Spain
Darfur from Sudan (underway)
Greenland from Denmark
Only a partial list of the most well known movements for independence.
“the right to self-determination is the cardinal principle in modern international law principles of international law (jus cogens), binding, as such, on the United Nations as authoritative interpretation of the Charter’s norms. It states that nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and fair equality of opportunity have the right to freely choose their sovereignty and international political status with no external compulsion or interference which can be traced back to the Atlantic Charter, signed on 14 August 1941, by Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, and Winston Churchill.
Of course it boils down to who has the power and who has lost power which will mean a great deal in Europe as traditional nation states fail. In the Scottish case “Politicians in both the Scottish and British parliaments have endorsed the right of the Scottish people to self-determination.”
I expect these movements will succeed in proportion to the failure of the nation states they are presently a part of.
You missed Texas and Wyoming. Although they aren’t muslim. /sarc.
Right on the money though, the way to defeat silam is to pit the various factions against each other. Divide and conquer.
And South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which is poised for a post Sochi property boom after Russians get tired of paying through the nose and Sochi real estate crashes-post Olympics. There might even be natural gas in Abkhaz waters of the Black Sea.
We in Israel should start recognizing them.
Vive le Quebec Libre!
But what if the Obama administration is supplying arms to Syria in order to “encourage” a war between Syria and Israel? This would take the attention off Iran surely? This would help Obama get rid of Assad and insert the Muslim Brotherhood.
Am I the only one who sees an analogy between the Palestinians and the Hostess union?
“The Muslim Brotherhood is at odds with the Salafists, for example; the Saudis are Salafist, and that is why the Saudis and the Egyptians are walking on eggshells when they talk to each other.”
Maybe.
But so called doctrinal differences might be simply a smokescreen for the intense political distrust.
Do all these labels, these shades of Islam, matter that much anymore in is a world where Shiite Iran aids and abets Sunni Gaza, their shared hatred for Israel overriding alleged doctrinal differences?
That’s a confused quote.
The MB are a Salafist crowd — and are repeatedly referred to as such by the Egyptian press.
The Royal House of KSA is also Salafist — but Wahhabism is miles away from the MB. The Saudis believe that THEY should be the Salafists in charge — and Wahhabism should be the Way.
Our President was indoctrinated by a Wahhabist imam while in Indonesia. The whole set-up was financed by the Saudi king.
One by one, each king, in turn, has financed such schools to the tune of $ 200,000,000,000 at last tally. Indeed, all mosques anywhere, of the Wahhabist school are totally funded by the sitting Saudi king; even if he has to use obscure cut-outs and non-profit fronts.
Unlike Temple or Church, mosque attendees are not really pressed for big contributions to sustain things; not if they’re in a Wahhabist institution. It’s an ill kept secret that the Saudis will back-stop everything.
Otherwise, no-one could expand the constellation of mosques at the tempo now known.
Of course, the infidels are deceived by illusions of local funding. It’s but a fraud.
It’s invasion by the ‘mind snatchers.’
A rare disappointment from Spengler. This source has the futurist air of DebkaFiles and a PJ Media colleague, who, like Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Dick Morris and Karl Rove, ensure the gullible that they have access to secret sources and oracles enabling them to predict the future. This act has grown old.
The predictions of increased security for Israel will come as a welcome relief for the families that have lost members in the last few days and for the hundreds of thousands under bombardment. As to the imminent breakup of various Arab states, I’ll believe it when I see it. England is unlikely to initiate a genocidal war against Scotland to maintain the union. Iraq has no such scruples regarding Kurdistan.
I saw a lot of Kurdish flags flying at “Iraqi” police stations around Kirkuk in 2007/08 and that was on the “Arab” side of the KRG/Iraq border. Like to take a guess at how many Iraqi flags are flying inside the KRG or how many Arab staffed military or police units you’ll actually find inside the KRG?
How do you explain the existence of the Asayesh (Iraqi-Kurdish secret police)?
I’d say the Iraqi Kurds have as much independence as they want, for now. When they need more they may well take it, perhaps with Turkish help.
On one hand the arab world is deeply divided by sunii/ shiite contest, on the other hand the new islamist regimes are ten times more agressive each on their own, against israel.Egypt is clearly a potential agressor and will give a helping hand to Hamas, Jordan might be toppled by islamists, Syria of Assad will not fall so quickly,Hizbollah is well entrenched in Lebanon.So the overall landscape is NOT positive.the big and immediate threat is Iran, and it can be stopped only at the price of a preemptive action from israel..So the coming year is the year of all dangers coming together.Long term planning (oil output etc..) and eventual “modernist evolution” are not considered realistic in the Mideast.The danger is everywhere and can spill its venom very quickly, so mr Goldman assessment is rather academic or even out of touch withthe current convulsions.
Que nenni, Philippe.
Being aggressive verbally does not mean being able to physically cause harm, at least not significantly. Al-Jazeera is a non-conventional weapon, as is the “Palestinian Authority” bureau of propaganda, fully funded by Western taxpayers’ money.
In this kind of warfare, a long-term view is an asset when it’s used inter alia to shape short- to mid- term objectives and policies.
Even if Arab states did unite, how would they coordinate mismatched and outmatched weapons systems and who would be the enemy? Israel? Israel has nukes. No Arab polity in their right mind will risk all to attack Israel.
Despite the low favor in which some in the West hold the Arab Spring, the presence of even Islamist parliaments would have to agree to war, something far more difficult to do than the will of a single dictator.
Islam’s greatest weapon against the West, and Israel, is immigration. Islam is winning that war.
Missing here is that Islam is about to strangle on its excess young unproductive population.
You see they area has a moral hazard as they survive on sufferance.
I wonder what things will look like when Lucy pulls the football away….
“Globalization, though, opens numerous opportunities for the Jewish state to distinguish itself through technology, business, and science. The world needs new energy technologies, more efficient agriculture, better water management, cost-effective medical diagnostics, and a range of other technologies where Israel excels. Israel aspires to a new image as the source of beneficial technologies and scientific achievements that improve the lives of people around the world”
So true – what Israel needs to do is to invest in education at all levels and
Research and Development and then we can be a “light to the nations” In order
to do so – we need new leadership -not corrupt politicians, we need to see that
ultra-Orthodox children receive a modern education and that Ultra-Orthodox men
join the work force.
I posted this comment over at Belmont Club and it bears reposting for all Spengler fans to chew on — there appears to be an Egyptian oil grab in the cards. Without getting at least a cut of eastern Libya’s oil revenues Morsi’s government is doomed to subsist on handouts from Qatar, the EU and the U.S. that won’t last forever. Feeding a million Gazans on UN handouts is one thing, feeding 80 million Egyptians when Russia and Ukraine are cutting grain exports (and the U.S. is running the risk of having to ship all Mississippi valley grain to the Port of Louisiana by RAIL thanks to the Obama Army Corps of Engineers) is quite another:
6. Mr. X
Bingo Wretchard, you’ve hit the nail on the head (the only addendum I would contribute is that Obama, being a grandson of CIA officers per Angelo Codevilla, views covert/proxy wars as the only way to do business after the debacle of Bush’s wars). Plus covert actions/drones and even the occasional black site torture spot allow the One to maintain the pretense of being the Nobel Peace Prize winner while waging proxy wars on a scale even Bush’s people never contemplated.
In that spirit what was happening in Benghazi was likely Fast and Furious po Arabski — massively funnelling guns, rockets, mortars and even SA-7 MANPADs from the Duck of Death’s former arsenals to the Syria rebels. The neocons of course who see the Syria conflict solely in terms of unseating a Russian/Iranian ally in Assad refuse to see this, or even wink at it (I’m talking about Max Boot and others here who will get their way and get Israelis on the Golan Heights killed). The end goal of course is a Muslim Brotherhood state in Damascus allied with the one in Egypt, and one that Obama and Jarrett foolishly think they can ‘moderate’ because the Egyptian MBO and Morsi desperately need Western food aid and loans. But they cannot, anymore than they could prevent Ansar Al Shariah thugs who’d promised to provide security for the consulate from turning double agent, either working directly for the Quds force or for Al-Qaeda and killing our Ambassador after taking U.S. money to fight Assad!
If you’re Morsi and your increasingly Islamist government can only subsist on humiliating handouts from the U.S., EU and IMF loans that will soon run dry, the ‘solution’ is obvious: an oil grab in Cyrenica, eastern Libya, right across the border. Oh sure the Egyptians won’t formally annex eastern Libya, anymore than Russia officially claimed South Ossetia and Abkhazia as Russian territory (I know this because I know someone who tried to get a visa through a Russian consulate in the U.S. to Abkhazia and was told he could only apply through the Abhaz interests section at the Russian Embassy in D.C.). No the Egyptians will simply send (U.S./Obama funded!) tanks and guns to the ‘strongest tribe’ in Cyrenica who will rule Benghazi as Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood puppets in return for military protection, mercenaries and a cut of the oil wealth. This is the grand design of the Muslim Brotherhood friendly Jarrett Administration.
There won’t be any war with Iran unless — ironically as hell — Russia decides to wink at the Israelis using Azeri bases to refuel and rearm en route to hitting Iran, without the U.S. But Obama may be so brazen at this point that he would warn Bibi that IAF jets might get shot down by the USAF out of Qatar.
Conventional military threats have been handled by Israel since 1948.
So the major threats now include: nuclear attack by Iran and maybe others with a Pakistani weapon or even Russian, a barrage of tens of thousands of rockets from all sides, political isolation and strangulation by the world powers in thrall to Islamic pressure and political correctness (read: antisemitism), random terrorist acts using who knows what and quite possibly Syrian (ex-Iraqi) chemical and biological weapons.
Well, I suppose at least notching down the conventional threat *is* good news, as far as it goes.
As usual, the Jews are sanguine and misguided on the Arabs disintegrating. They’re united more strongly than people of any other belief system by the Koran’s call for the conquest of all others. This imperative is also in the Hadiths, the sacralized histories, and the Sharia. It’s held them together for 1,400 years now, and isn’t soon to break.
To: David Goldman;
As usual from you a great article, but this time I must respectfully disagree.
During times of turmoil, esp. when nations appear to be on the road to disintegration, those groups most organized, most persistent and the most willing to use terror and deadly force have a very good chance of prevailing amongst the chaos.
In the Arab lands, this would be the Muslim Brotherhood and their allies.
And what better way to unite all Arabs than to proclaim – and then act upon it – a jihad against Israel.
As for the various disagreements amongst the Arabs,they will set aside their differences to fight their most hated enemy; esp. if you die in battle will result in a all-expense-paid trip to heaven to hang with 7 (70? 700?) virgins.
(Who possibly could have thought that Stalin and Hitler would strike a deal so both could invade Poland?)
I have heard before that Arabs hate Palestinians. Fine. This hate will be put on hold if need be if they all decide to attack Israel.
Instability brings far more uncertainty than stability, and instability leads to results that are simply unpredictable. If I were an Israeli, I would not be so sure that the disintegration of Arabia would increase the security of Israel.
I think it would decrease it.
The blind optimism of Israeli Jews was at hand when they gave away Gaza, allowed the Palestinian territory. This was also the case when they conceded the Sinai, which they sure could use now that Egypt has fallen in with the Cause.
Hopefully, though, the stupid call for giving Syria back the Golan is ended. That would not have worked out. Not at all. Especially given that Syria too is set to go all “Islamist” (a polite misnomer for Moslems who have decided to act on the commands in the Koran and Hadiths, in other words, the Cause).
Ariel Sharon was nobody’s fool….
I commented, even before the Israeli withdrawal, that he was playing a deep game.
Since muslims can never not fail to tackle opportunity…
Sharon had to figure that if given enough rope that the Gaza crew would hang themselves in the court of public opinion.
I’d say that time has come.
I also opined that Gaza would have to be shut down by moving the toothpaste out of the tube: that Gazan Arabs would have to be displaced into Egypt — which was where their forefathers hailed from.
(Go back and study the pre-1947 populations. The Gazan crowd came almost entirely from Egypt. Gaza was only ever established as a ‘temporary’ zone after the hudna terminating the War of Israel’s Existence/Independence. It held, by today’s standards, very few people. It was after the conflict that additional Arabs moved in [from Egypt] to provide sexual balance. Its original inhabitants were overwhelmingly military aged males; that is, the remnants of the Egyptian forces on jihad, to destroy Israel. They’d fallen back to Gaza because it had at least some water. It’s pitiful ‘resources’ were so scarce that many expected the boys to up stakes and leave to go home. Instead, the Egyptian government played the pity angle — it certainly didn’t need the boys back in the Nile Valley.)
I’d like to see a demographic study of population shifts during the early part of the 20th century. I’m told by some that, once returning Jews started buying up land in Palestine from absentee Arab landlords to pursue their Zionist dream, that the then underpopulated area started to fill up with Arabs, who went there knowing that with Jews there now there would be industry and progress, and they could enjoy the tide of Jew-impelled economic progress that was sure to follow.
One wonders if there is such a study. I could never find it, and assume that if such records do exist they’re locked away in a steel vault never to be seen.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053804/http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053804/In the immediate post WWII war era the British made no bones about resolving the Jewish question based upon a fresh census — that who, and how many, lived where would be hugely determinative for any Zionist negotiations — particularly in line with the Balfour Declaration.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balfour_Declaration
The word got out. Every muslim despot within hearing displaced as many Arab souls as possible towards Palestine as quickly as possible. This was, itself, considered jihad.
And, not surprisingly, many, many Jews arrived — particularly the survivors of the Shoah.
See “Exodus”, 1960.
So, rather than being a gradual thing, the population of 1947 Israel and its co-adjacent neighbors was ramping up fast.
I don’t have the links, but you can google around for what the Zionists originally were willing to settle for — pre-independence. In a nutshell: it was merely the northern half of modern Israel — with practically nothing south of Tel Aviv. (!!!)
Lebanon stayed out of the fighting. In almost all other directions, the Arabs lost wholesale. It was after the hudna, ending the War for Independence, that Gaza — as we think of it today — even existed on the map as an identifiable entity. At the time it was almost entirely a tent-city grab bag of defeated jihadis. The Israelis left them there to their own devices precisely because it was deemed a hellhole swamp adjacent to the sea.
Obviously, if any Israeli had known that that worthless strip of sand would fester into a decades long wound events would’ve taken a different turn.
Gaza, per se, has absolutely zero significance to the Arabs — outside of its proximity to Tel Aviv and their ability to sell victim-hood. Of course, their real tormentor is Hamas.
It’s already run off Fatah — murdering most and torturing the rest.
Though, nominally a Suni operation, Hamas was ‘stood up’ by Hezbollah — the Iranian front. Up until recently, there was no daylight between Hamas and Hezbollah. But things change.
KSA, ever the rival to Tehran, has stepped up to financially back Hamas — as has 0bama. The last time I looked, Barry Soetoro has gifted Hamas more than any other recent sponsor. (!)
He just loves Salafists.
All of modern Washington is still stuck on the crazed idea that Hamas or Fatah will co-exist with Israel. If anyone read their charter, they’d know that’s impossible.
The Israelis have figured it out: at some point they’re going to have to eject Hamas and Fatah/ PLA from proximity. They’re just not in a hurry, like some dictators of history.
========
I suspect that we’re looking at the teeth of Peak islamism. Exponentially ramping numbers of lay-abouts — living in a desert — means that all of the Arab overseas capital is likely to be consumed within two generations — at the outside.
They will look like Greece on steroids — and with more grit.
This was, itself, considered jihad.
Thx for the lead, blert. Unfortunately, the first link doesn’t work.
In any case, what we’re talking here is demographic Jihad, a form of aggression long practiced by Moslems, who over their 1,400 year history have always been expansionist.
Several years ago the historian Hugh Fitzgerald, now with New England Review, did a piece on the early 20th century period, extending from about 1900 up to 1949. That’s the sum of what I’ve seen on the subject of pre-Israel Palestine. Compare that content to an hour long segment done by the great agitprop purveyor Oprah, and you get a contrast. She portrayed pre-Israel as a happy land of Bedouin Arabs who’d lived there for centuries, and whose productive and peaceful homes and lands were ripped from them by greedy Jews.
Oprah teared up during the segment. I wondered whether that was because of what was done to the innocent Arabs, or from guilt at the fake history she and here crew was laying down. Either way, it worked to inculcate millions of viewers on the moral superiority of Arabs over the Jews.
Still, we can’t assume anything. Remember the overconfidence before the 1973 war?
no, I don’t remember any overconfidence, and neither do you
I do.
a senior Israeli official said that the threat of conventional war against Israel had fallen sharply due to instability in the Arab world.
But he left out the Persian world, which may bode worse.
Worth reading:
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/11/18/america-israel-gaza-the-world/
“War is not a sport: from the link
Look at Jesus . He created fish for the poor to eat not from the air but as Creator . He calmed the storm at sea God of the air. He walked on water God of the oceans.
Then he become the first suicide bomb when the mob pick Barabas and they put the authority in charge all put him to death creating earthquake. What can be worse than and earthquake bomb?
Pray that in your delusion you are not fighting against the Almighty God because not only is war not a sport but To Almighty God war is a religion
Exodus 15:3-18
Douay-Rheims 1899 American Edition (DRA)
3 The Lord is as a man of war, Almighty is his name.
4 Pharao’s chariots and his army he hath cast into the sea: his chosen captains are drowned in the Red Sea.
5 The depths have covered them, they are sunk to the bottom like a stone.
6 Thy right hand, O Lord, is magnified in strength: thy right hand, O Lord, hath slain the enemy.
7 And in the multitude of they glory thou hast put down thy adversaries: thou hast sent thy wrath, which hath devoured them like stubble.
8 And with the blast of thy anger the waters were gathered together: the flowing water stood, the depth were gathered together in the midst of the sea.
9 The enemy said: I will pursue and overtake, I will divide the spoils, my soul shall have its fill: I will draw my sword, my hand shall slay them.
10 Thy wind blew and the sea covered them: they sunk as lead in the mighty waters.
11 Who is like to thee, among the strong, O Lord? who is like to thee, glorious in holiness, terrible and praiseworthy, doing wonders?
12 Thou stretchedst forth thy hand, and the earth swallowed them.
13 In thy mercy thou hast been a leader to the people which thou hast redeemed: and in thy strength thou hast carried them to thy holy habitation.
14 Nations rose up, and were angry: sorrows took hold on the inhabitants of Philisthiim.
15 Then were the princes of Edom troubled, trembling seized on the stout men of Moab: all the inhabitants of Chanaan became stiff.
16 Let fear and dread fall upon them, in the greatness of thy arm: let them become unmoveable as a stone, until thy people, O Lord, pass by: until this thy people pass by, which thou hast possessed.
17 Thou shalt bring them in, and plant them in the mountain of thy inheritance, in thy most firm habitation which thou hast made, O Lord; thy sanctuary, O Lord, which thy hands have established.
18 The Lord shall reign for ever and ever.
( Jesus say:” My kingdom is no part of this world if it was…. I believe God wants to unite the three Abraham faiths not the mob who would vote in enemy of God because their only concern is economic paradise the same as Pharaoh not God’s morality
yes/no? )
I think Mohammed Morsi is itching for a pretext for Egypt to invade Israel.
Speaking at a news conference in Cairo with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton minutes ago, Egypt’s foreign minister minister, Mohammed Kamel Amr, just announced that Hamas and Israel have agreed to a cease-fire, scheduled to begin in about 90 minutes, at 9 p.m. local time, which is 2 p.m. Eastern time.
Barak Ravid, a Haaretz correspondent, reports on Twitter that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Obama that he has agreed to give the Egyptian-brokered cease-fire a chance to succeed.