Thank Obama for Russia’s Resurgence
Russia has a couple of other cards to play. The most important of these is Russian excellence in surface-to-air missile technology. Putin has played an on-again, off-again game with Iran about prospective delivery of the S-300 interceptor system. At the moment the deal is off. But who knows what concessions Putin extracted from other players for this demurral.
If we want to reduce Russian influence, we need to
1) Thwart rather than support the Muslim Brotherhood,
2) Stick by our allies (including the Gulf states as well as Israel) and undermine our enemies,
3) Neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons program right away and by any means necessary (a gun to the head might do it, but I would prefer an immediate bombing campaign, just to be on the safe side) and
4) leapfrog Russia’s SAM technology. That’s the hard part. Suppose, instead of spending some part of the $1 trillion we unwisely spent on the great nation-building folly in Iraq and Afghanistan, we had invested more in defense R&D with an emphasis on missile defense? It’s a fair bet that Russia’s S-300 (and even its reportedly hyper-advanced S-500) would look like yesterday’s junk by comparison.
5) Drill, drill, drill for hydrocarbons and build nuclear power plants at home to eliminate dependence on foreign oil.
Acting tough doesn’t help. Being tough does. The one area where it does not pay to tangle with Russia is in parts of what it calls the “near abroad” with very large Russian-speaking populations, notably Ukraine. Former Secretary of State Rice made a mess of things by backing the so-called Orange Revolution, as I discussed in a 2008 analysis. It didn’t take long for the Russians to regain the upper hand.
We should run rings around the Russians in energy and strategic defense, and make selective concessions on issues that Russia views as existential. Some of my Catholic friends will never agree to this, in light of the late Pope John Paul II’s special affection for the Ukrainian Uniate Church. But Ukraine is a dying country with catastrophic demographics. Before long there won’t be anything to quarrel about. If we restore American power, then some day, some Russians will take a chance and follow our example. To get there we need deeds rather than words.
****
Image courtesy shutterstock / gillmar
Condi Rice’s statement that a country that loses control of its finances loses control of its destiny seem to sum up the predicament facing the US. With Obama looking harder to defeat just now the debt looks like getting bigger, so I strongly agree that drastically upping hydrocarbon and nuclear energy production would be an excellent was to recover from the economic hole we have dug with corruption and overspending. I think Obama sees these issues through an ideological lens not a strategic one and that is just not going to work.
Lorenz,
Spengler is half right. The ‘Reset’ actually began during the Bush Administration when Paulson and co. were asking for more money from the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation, and Russian companies quietly bought up 10% of the U.S. steel industry while the logistics for Afghanistan became focused on Central Asia. Saying the Reset is solely the product of Obama’s urge to appease Moscow is ignoring the economic picture. You could say once Goldman Sachs reopened its office in Moscow that was a real turning point sometime in late 2006-early 2007. Government Sachs also had their big meetings in March 2008 at a Moscow hotel. Think the walls were listening then? I know for a fact certain Russian execs knew which Wall Street banks were going under long before the financial press knew in 2008.
But there’s no doubt Obama’s strategic stupidity and embrace of the Arab Spring has strengthened Russia’s credibility, both in Jerusalem and in other capitals of interest. The Asia Times reports that the Japanese are rushing to bury the hatchet over the islands captured at the end of WWII by the USSR in return for more cheaper LNG contracts. With their nuclear industry winding down, they have no other choice, and the urgency is compounded by the Chinese Navy breathing down their necks as a serious threat to cut their naval supply lines.
As I’ve been warning PJMers for a long time (but more for the Frank Gaffney D.C. neocon crowd in denial), Israel is also being pushed into the arms of Moscow, not only by Obama trying to block their plans to attack Iran (which country do you think controls Azeri air space after the FP had those complaints about Israel ‘buying an aircraft carrier called Azerbaijan’? Russia!) through leaks and perhaps even threats to shoot the IAF down en route. Do we have ships from 25 navies in the Persian Gulf to deter Iran, or Israel?
But there’s also the broader financial disaster awaiting the U.S. and the dollar. Israel cannot continue booking its foreign and especially technology trade in a currency that Bernanke is destroying. If Obama is reelected expect an ‘et tu, Jerusalem?’ moment when the bank of Israel joins in an alternate or commodity-backed currency for the German, Russian and Chinese central banks joined by the GCC. The Saudi pivot toward China is already well underway with Beijing selling Riyadh IRBMs, and China now having more workers in the country than any other foreign nation. The Chinese may not end up owning the KSA but they might as well since their people will be everywhere and run the place for the playboy royals.
Question: Could you explain in more detail your concern that “believing” (name only Catholics do not count) Catholics per se (and not just your Catholic friends) would object to a policy that reigns in Russia. The Russian Orthodox Church has laid claims (at least in the past) to the churches used by the “Uniates” and, indeed, if I remember during one visit to Russia awhile back, the Orthodox Church was claiming the “Uniates” for itself. Putin enjoys support in the Russian Orthodox Church, which or historical reasons is afraid of “democracy”. If the Urkaine is “dying” (why, in what timeframe, specific consequences?), I would bet that “The Putinian Union” would annexe the territory in one way or another in such a situation. The animonisty of Russian Orthodoxy to Roman Catholicism is quite bitter. Indeed, in Russia Catholicism is considered to be a “sect” (formally because of limited membership), officially speaking (unless things changed since my last visit). So I remain a bit confused by the concluding part of you analysis.
Seconded.
Slightly OT (or maybe not!), one quote from 1917 keeps rattling around in my head this week: “I shall come to ask for the consecration of Russia to my Immaculate Heart, and the Communion of reparation on the First Saturdays. If my requests are heeded, Russia will be converted, and there will be peace; if not, she will _spread her errors_ throughout the world, causing wars and persecutions of the Church.” (emphasis mine). The sleazebag Angelo Cardinal Sodano has assured us that it’s been done but it doesn’t really look like it to me, given the past 95 years, eh?
Yeltsin-era theft correlates exactly to Democrat New Party machinations since 1990.
Get in power to rob the country blind. At least the Republicans don’t want to kill the golden goose.
Best summary, good plan, well done.
I see the Red-Green alliance working very hard nit just to stay, but to win.
I believe we are very much in a global Cold War.
alzaebo, you hit the nail on its head!
Does anyone, in their right, left, sane, rational mind, believe that the implosions in the Middle East, plus the resurgence of Russia – under the reign of Barack HUSSEIN Obama – are happenstance?
Do pigs fly?
Therefore, facts on the ground report in one direction, regardless of media spin – the morphing of the RED/GREEN alliance on steroids, under the Islamist/Radical-in-Chief!
Therefore, I focus on this issue at my blog, proving ‘six ways to Sunday’ that this is the case.
Just as one illustration – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/07/14/the-redgreen-alliance-the-ties-that-bind-hillary-clinton-huma-abedin-compromise-us-national-security-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki-36/
Their road map is clear, except to the willfully blind.
I still don’t know why an ad with the audio clip of Medvedev saying “I Will Transmit This Message To Vladimir” has not yet been released.
It would scare independents.
Here’s an excerpt from JR Nyquist’s current column Trivial Causes
Meanwhile, in southern Russia, a military buildup is underway which Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer predicted some months back, alleging that Russia planned to occupy Georgia in order to “de-block its military base in Armenia.” Back in 2008 the Russian Army invaded Georgia. Even though the invasion was halted by the pleas of then French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Russia still controls strategically sensitive chunks of Georgian territory which would facilitate the reintegration of Georgia into the Empire. According to the Turkish Weekly for Sept. 15, Russia is planning “military exercises” (Kavkaz 2012) in its Southern Military District. Georgian officials say the exercises pose a threat to their sovereignty and NATO General Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen agrees. On Sept. 6, during a visit to Georgia, Rasmussen praised Georgia’s contribution to NATO’s war effort in Afghanistan (as the Georgians are sending two battalions of troops).
Voicing concern about NATO’s support for Georgia, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich warned that NATO has “failed to learn its lessons from the tragic events that took place in the South Caucasus in 2008, and continues to encourage Tblisi.” Lukashevich doesn’t see how Georgia’s membership in NATO would promote anyone’s security. The Georgians want revenge on Russia, he hinted darkly, and are manipulating NATO.
As it happens, Georgia is not the only country threatened by Moscow’s buildup. In the ongoing territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, things are heating up. Last June U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that a “much broader conflict” could occur if Azerbaijan renewed the war with Russian-supported Armenia. Already the Turks have closed their border with Armenia in support of their ethnic compatriots in Azerbaijan. At the same time Russia continues to operate a military base at Gyumri, Armenia, and is ready to defend Armenian sovereignty. According to a June 19 report from RIA Novosti, Russia intends to double the number of contract military personnel at its Gyumri base by the end of 2012. At present the Gyumri base is home to S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and MiG-29 fighters that can reach Iranian airspace.
Since Russian military intelligence enjoys a great reputation, there is reason to suspect increased Russian deployments to Armenia and Dagestan have more to do with an impending Israeli strike on Iran. The destabilization of Iran might require a large-scale south-bound Russian military move. Such a move would require Georgian and Azerbaijani compliance. And Russia appears to be preparing for such a move.
The Russians probably have access to Israeli plans. They know the Israelis are seriously contemplating a strike.
(close excerpt, see link for more)
buddy larsen, another PJM poster foresaw Gazprom united with a Muslim Bro OPEC-
the return of the Nasserite generals to complete the Meditteranean Union
Breaking: US to give Egypt $130 million / month in aid:
Flexibility!
(forgive me, Spengler audience)
Is Russia using Iran as Stalin once used Israel?
As a means to unite the Arab Mideast under Moscow’s banner?
Alzeabo, actually no, Moscow had not welcomed the Arab Spring and has been resolutely against it. A NYT article recently summed up Russian analysts views after the lynching of the U.S. Ambassador to Libya as ‘we told you so. These were the people you armed to fight Gaddafi’. The primary foreign power that has bankrolled the Caucasian jihadists besides the GCC countries has been Turkey.
But I would agree with Nyquist that Russia knows Israel is planning a strike. Irony of ironies many trolls online have accused the Israeli VP Lieberman who was born in the USSR of being an SVR plant. I think this is a lie but it’s interesting to see deliberate disinfo thrown online designed to produce discord between Moscow and Jerusalem. Someone clearly does not like that emerging strategic partnership that’s based on common enemies (Turkey, Muslim Brotherhood, and the Soros-transnationalist propaganda machine) and interests (Leviathian, Greece, and an Israeli strike on Iran sending oil prices skyrocketing).
Nothing is so simple. Russia is keeping all its options open and trawling for advantages.
Russia’s relationship with the Middle East is complex and sometimes contradictory.
Turkey is not an enemy of Russia; Russia hopes Turkey’s Islamist government will help control jihadi elements in the Russian Caucusus. There are over 10 million Turkish or Turkic people in Russia as guest workers as well. The trouble is that with the Syrian mess, Erdogan’s control is slipping.
Russia wants a good relationship with Israel for many reasons including military technology (most of the scientists that designed its most advanced systems now reside in Israel. Russia also wants some say in the marketing of Israeli gas. There are some reports that Russia is using the issue of the S-300′s for Iran to blackmail Israel.
Russia wants to project influence into Central Asia. The best chronicler of this is M.K. Bhadrakumar, here:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/
And Russia also wants to keep its hand in the game and will act as a spoiler in a number of areas.
Russian and Turkey. Didn’t they hold a joint military excercise at the ‘rat convention?
EOT for me: Ann Barnhardt quotes some first century Jewish wisdom, which suggests (in the spirit of protesters holding signs saying, ‘Who Would Jesus Bomb?’) that Bernanke should be worried about more than just a backlclash from Congress against the Fed’s vaunted independence:
from Repost: “Jesus Rejects ZIRP. It’s in the Bible.” 2
Posted by Ann Barnhardt – September 18, AD 2012 7:35 PM MST
“Drill, drill, drill for hydrocarbons and build nuclear power plants at home to eliminate dependence on foreign oil.”
This would help us in SO many ways, not the least of which creating JOBS for some of the unemployed who are sitting on their Obamas now. But no, we gotta worship at the feet of some phony god of “green energy” which provides no energy but does manage to consume billions of bucks before going bankrupt. In the meantime, the government uses stimulus money to buy solar panels from Chinese companies to put on federal buildings.
This is a small part of the craziness of the Obama years. A sane person who just woke up after being in a coma for 20 years would be sure that the country would be united in getting rid of this fool, but yet the media and the DemOcrat Party (and at least 40% of the voters) are fighting like mad to give him another four years to continue his stupidity. It’s beyond bizarre, it’s surreal.
Buck’O: It’s beyond bizarre, it’s surreal. Amen to that!
It’s the “Palin-ization” of Romney/Ryan. In 2008, I had friends who wanted to vote for McCain but could not bring themselves to vote for Sarah Palin.
Now they’re convinced if they vote for Romney, Roe vs Wade will be repealed, Gay Marriage will bite the dust, children will be starving in the streets, etc.
Beyond the skewed polls, there is still a huge disconnect. Romney is essentially promising “Hope and Change”; fiscally responsible graduated change. Americans are terrified of change! They can not see the forest thru the trees.
As a nuclear engineer I ought to write a piece illustrating Obama’s war on nuclear power in this country. They have certainly brought our new nuclear construction program to almost a halt with road block after road block.
Yes, more nuclear power plants would help the US but the electricity they offer is otherwise provided by domestic coal and natural gas. We’re in a price trough on gas right now where the price is below the cost of new production – some big gas producers are losing money right now. Hence, gas prices will rebound and nuclear will again be economically competitive in many areas once again.
Looking to Japan, they’ve just signed additional contracts with the Russians for LNG from Siberia, their only alternative to Japanese nuclear plants. Wanna bet some Japanese politicians are getting nice checks from Gazprom and the FSB for their anti-nuclear agitation?
As an addition to Mr. Goldman’s five points, the US should make sure they don’t follow Russia and Ukraine down the demographic disaster.
As the Economist reports (link below) in August, the fertility rate of the US has been falling since 2007 and fell 2010 below the TFR of France.
http://www.economist.com/node/21560266
There’s only one way to fix that. How many do YOU have?
What’s your proposed solution–impose production quotas?
“Suppose, instead of spending some part of the $1 trillion we unwisely spent on the great nation-building folly in Iraq and Afghanistan, we had invested more in defense R&D with an emphasis on missile defense?”
Ah, good ‘ol George “Islam is a Great Religion of Peace” Bush and his idiot advisers like Clueless Condi.
“But Ukraine is a dying country with catastrophic demographics.”
Russia is in the same boat David. Not to mentioned the diaspora of many Russians who left for greener pastures. The oligarchs, and the security apparatuses around them, live well, but they will end up ruling a wasteland if the current trend continues.
At a fifty-year horizon Russia is cooked, although there has been a small improvement in Russian fertility of late. But Russia and Ukraine are quite different stories. Russia already has a manpower shortage alleviated by more than 10 million guest workers from Turkey and the ‘stans. Given the drift of American policy in the Middle East it stands to rise as a power on the strength of its hydrocarbon exports. At a ten- or twenty-year horizon, Russia (unless American policy changes) will become more powerful. So will Iran, despite its demographic descent, if it gets nuclear weapons.
The fertility rate only improved due to the amount of immigrants from the ‘stans who come to work there. Russians themselves decrease. They have a lot more problems just beneath the surface, but I’m sure you are well aware of that.
“Given the drift of American policy in the Middle East it stands to rise as a power on the strength of its hydrocarbon exports. At a ten- or twenty-year horizon, Russia (unless American policy changes) will become more powerful.”
As an engery exporter, its a given they will increase their power economically though it only benefits a few. The living standards, crime, corruption is driving their best and brightest abroad and they are not coming back.
I enjoy your insights. All the best.
Spengler (for those who don’t know, Mr. Goldman’s nomdy ploom) in the Asia Times –instalanched yesterday –
http://atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/NI18Aa01.html
The comments appear to’ve suffered some sort of coordinated attack –apparently many object to even voicing the notion that tiny Israel might indeed –at great cost to herself of course –save the old bumbling schizophrenic Alzheimer’s patient Uncle Sam.
Mr X –long time no see –hope you are well. Pleasantly surprised to see you’re reading Barnhardt, and the selection, if i may say, is right in line with the Orthodox admiration of Mr X of old. Hey, that is one serious woman, that Ann Barnhardt!
Also Nyquist –a glance at the titles in that archive, and any ordinary politics junkie is thinking, if the guy uses quatrains he’s the new Nostradamus. But actually it’s pretty prosaic magic –interviews scholars and expats, writes ‘em up in brief essays and supplies the links to the vitally important and utterly obscure. The column a few weeks ago on east European commerce contained this crazy story about the Velvet Revolution. Can it be true? If it is, well, i’m dumbstruck, and will have to let this child of the Velvet Revolution speak for me.
Yes. Yes. The security industry knows the politicals are criminal buffoons, and will replace them with itself- covertly, keeping the assets intact. Thats what they do.
Larsen;
I’m also impressed w/ Mr. X; very erudite. The term ‘Velvet R.’ never was part of Gorby’s glasnost/perestroika; Gorby himself is a KGB, btw. The term VR is from Czechoslovakia of November 1989. I visited Prague in 1991 after 21 years split btw Switzerland & the US & could see through the sham right off the bat. Just like Russia, the CZ has been plundered blind during the so-called privatization and it’s still going on; the hyenas are fighting over the crumbs. My closest friends (all non-commies) were mad at me then and apologized to me a few years later. Being raised in a truly dissident (The Chart 77 of V. Havel was a smokescreen full of CZ KGB types) & persecuted family, we always connected the dots & knew what’s going on.
That movie is right on & the comment re: Soviets creating the Islam terror in the ’60s is also true. Many of the early Muslim terrorists from the USSR in the ’60s were trained in CZ. Here’s the clincher as I’ve stated before. Russia/USSR is historically anti-Semitic (Pogrom is a Russian word!) Russia’s ‘allegiance’ w/ Israel is but a subterfuge serving Putin’s, et al, purposes. One among many being the control recapture of the C-Asia. I’m sure the Israelis know that.
Lastly, for you history buffs out there. Yeltsin ordered in 1977 (then a regional KGB capo) the ruins of the house in Yekaterinburg where the Czar’s family was executed in 1918 to be bulldozed & razed. The blood and the bullet holes were still visible. A church stands there today. My great-uncle was a colonel w/ the Czech Legion (real history is rarely in books):
On 16 July 1918 forces of the Czech legion were closing on Yekaterinburg (900 miles E from Moscow), not realizing that Russia’s royal family was being held under house arrest there. The Bolsheviks, believing that the Czechs were on a mission to rescue the Russian royals, panicked and executed their wards. The real reason for the Czechs being in Yekaterinburg was to protect the Trans-Siberian Railway, of which they had total control. Circumstance played a large part in the execution of the Russian royal family. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_the_Romanov_family
http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/nicholas.htm
Welcome back, Bear. We’ve been waiting for you
Since the middle 1990′s I have been warning my friends that we are facing terrible trouble from the Russians, much worse than during the Soviet era. Clinton and Bush II didn’t help matters any by acting against Serbia. Time will tell.
Personally I think our problems with Russia stem from the infamous ‘reset button’ idea. Trying to impress a bunch of tough guys with a stunt that might impress Swedish diplomats is a show of weakness.
“Acting tough doesn’t help. Being tough does. The one area where it does not pay to tangle with Russia is in parts of what it calls the “near abroad” with very large Russian-speaking populations, notably Ukraine. Former Secretary of State Rice made a mess of things by backing the so-called Orange Revolution, as I discussed in a 2008 analysis. It didn’t take long for the Russians to regain the upper hand.
We should run rings around the Russians in energy and strategic defense, and make selective concessions on issues that Russia views as existential. Some of my Catholic friends will never agree to this, in light of the late Pope John Paul II’s special affection for the Ukrainian Uniate Church. But Ukraine is a dying country with catastrophic demographics. Before long there won’t be anything to quarrel about. If we restore American power, then some day, some Russians will take a chance and follow our example. To get there we need deeds rather than words.”
Your article is interesting and worth reading, but what amazes me again and again is a total ignorance about the context (the above quotation is just one more sad example). I would recommend you to abstain from writing about the subjects you have no even basic knowledge about.
Из Росии с любовью. Cheers!
Anything in particular you disagree with?
The term “dying country” in demographics could be easily apply to Russia as well.
Colin Powell and Condi Rise did a superb job preventing blood bath in Ukraine in November 2004.
Any concession to Russia only makes that country more aggressive. The closest example is the Sudetten Land in 1938, or 2008 South Osetia.
Michael McFall maybe a good scholar (for US colleges), but he failed miserably in his “resetting” relationships with Russia because of lack of understanding of the “context” of Putin’s regime.
And finally, the church – take some additional reading on Russian Orthodoxy and its role in today’s post-Soviet space.
Cheers.
The condition of demographically ”dying” is likely to make the military threat all the greater, not correspondingly lesser, i would think. Subdue all threats now while you can.
Russia continues to reach for control of its former Central Asian provinces. This little bit from STRATFOR is worth noting. You probably won’t see it on the evening news.
Russia: Military Bases Will Ensure Stability In Central Asia – Putin
September 20, 2012 | 1404 GMT
Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will ensure stability in Central Asia after NATO withdraws from Afghanistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said while visiting Kyrgyzstan, RIA Novosti reported Sept. 20. Putin also said that Russia and Kyrgyzstan invited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to participate in hydropower projects in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is an important foothold for Russia in Central Asia, and one of Moscow’s goals is to increase its military presence in the country.
So much wrong with this article.
I should think that the cause of democracy in Russia was none of our business, and certainly no reason for Russia and us to be enemies. A mere distaste for the way another people chooses its leaders has never been a sufficient reason for hostility between states.
I should think that, if the “potential leaders” of Russian democracy have, as the author says, packed up and left for America and Israel, then Russia is better off without such unpatriotic “leaders.” Whether such people would actually have any chance in Russian politics if Russia were more democratic is also doubtful, given their unpopular views and often their unpopular ethnic backgrounds.
I should think that preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons was a worthy purpose in itself, whose justification is not made stronger when one brings Russia, which is not a natural enemy of America, into the argument.
As for the Russian people, it’s possible that they have not “stood up for their rights” — in other words, have not chosen to risk life and limb or plunge their country into yet another serious disorder for uncertain ends — because the Russians do not feel excruciating oppression under Putin. After all, the standard of living in Russia is perhaps higher today than it has ever been before; the state of science is at the level of Europe, America, and Japan (which is to say, superior to anything in the non-white world except Japan, including China); freedom of expression is also greater than it has ever been in the country’s history.
This senseless disdain and hostility towards Russia is preventing our improving our relations, which would be in the interest of both countries.
I certainly think the US should make gestures of support to democrats like Garry Kasparov. Pussy Riot is a tougher sell. But we should be aware that these are symbolic gestures. Putin knows that he’s a hard-fisted dictator and doesn’t expect us to view him any other way. He’s not going to be insulted. We don’t have to pretend that we like him. But we’re not going to get rid of him, so we have to deal with him. The question is: will it be from weakness or strength?
Nothing has changed. Russia is still the Evil Empire. It still stifles dissent and free speech. It is the main source of nuclear technology for Iran, and the ultimate nuclear enabler of Iran’s effort to develop the bomb. It sells conventional weapons, including sophsticated anti-aircraft missles to Iran. It flagrantly violates the boycott of Iran and supports the Assad regime in Syria.
It is the enemy of all freedom loving people in the world. Jews, in particular, has a legitimate ax to grind when it comes to Russia. Unfortunately, they cared and mustered more protest when it came to freeing Soviets Jews from Russian oppression. Today, the Jewish Community, in spite of the threat posed by Iran and its Russian backer, is consumed by apathy and self-interest. They’ll vote for Obama and feel smugly self-satisfied.
“Nothing has changed. Russia is still the Evil Empire.”
Maybe from where you are sitting, but the times have changed in Russia and Eastern Europe. They are just dealing with the present day realities in the world. I’de wish we Americans would as well, but I think reality is about to catch up with us. It won’t be a pleasant meeting.
I don’t agree. As an old Cold Warrior, I remember when Russia scared the pants off us, and rightly so. We nearly had a nuclear war once or twice. A few journalists and opposition types have fallen out of windows under this regime, to be sure, and I don’t condone Putin’s method. But to compare that to the days of the Gulag is senseless.
Indeed.
This is part of what I was getting at with my comment. The Russians arent global revolutionary ideologues anymore. Culturally at base they are typical East European Christians. They may have a bit too authoritarian government for our liking, and certainly still have regional imperialist interests and economic interests, but these are much less threatening to us or the entire world.
A prosperous Russia is good for geopolitics, and perhaps they can move towards a more open system with a stronger rule of law, gradually, moving to alliance with the West, and out of alliances with rogue and Anti-American states.
And I thought I was “out there”. It’s a comfort to know that there are “others” who think that sometimes a threat is intolerable.
Can’t you just leave Russia alone ?
There is more real freedom and liberty over there than over here. Travel, meet the real people and you will see.
Can’t you see that there is no real “democracy” in the west anymore ? The system is now firmly in the hands of “liberals”, wether of the left or of the right, all of them basically cultural marxists (even if they have never heard the name). They control everything: education, academia, the mainstream media, entertainment, publishing… even science! think Global Warming…
Why do you think they hate Putin and New Russia so much ?
Russians have suffered enough brainwashing for 75 years, they know what it is, they see what is happening to us and don’t want any (more) of it.
How could it be otherwise? No one has explained the Molotov/von Ribbentrop pact yet, and that would be the start point of true mutual trust.
The Chief Culprit, by Russian historian Viktor Suvorov, has an explanation for that pact. He sees it as one of several steps by Stalin toward the eventual Soviet conquest of Europe, using Hitler as an unwitting dupe to clear the way for him. Suvorov marshals an enormous amount of evidence in support of his thesis.
I read Suvorov’s book. He doesn’t exactly call Hitler an “unwitting dupe,” but he does show convincingly that Stalin hoped that the Allies and the Germans would bleed each other dry so that he could move in (just as the allies hoped that Germany and Russia would do the same).
So basically, until Hitler’s surprise attack, Stalin was an Axis man, alongside der fuhrer, Tojo, and Il Duce (and the Balkan princes, etc). That’s quite an item for the trust issue, being still in living memory as it is.
Yea, yea “the Western democracy is bad”, but the alternative is even worse.
Does anyone want to try the Soviet “collective farm” to understand the difference?
Can’t you understand that there are no more “collective farms” in Russia today and that we in the west are a lot closer to colectivism than they are ?
You are stuck in the past. Please open your eyes and identify your real ennemies correctly.
Putin, Medvedev and most Russians are closer to you and your family than Soros,Clinton (Hillary), Ayers, Alinski, Kerry, Pelosi, Blair and the rest of them will ever be.
“…most Russians are closer to you and your family than Soros,Clinton (Hillary), Ayers, Alinski, Kerry, Pelosi, Blair and the rest of them will ever be.”
Speaking only for myself, that is completely true.
Yep –because at least the foreigners are working ‘for’ rather than ‘against’ their own countrymen.
Well, it wasn’t helpful that Obama threw away our trump card for central Europe, which was our anti-ballistic missile shield. By throwing Europe under the bus, not only did Obama undermine our NATO allies, but he threw away a huge bargaining chip with the Russians without getting anything in return. Not only was that stupid, it was dangerous too, at least for the Europeans. If Romney gets elected, he should try to re-install the missile shield in Europe, although he will have an almost impossible selling job to make to the Europeans. After all, they were burned by Obama, so why should they trust the United States again? No matter what the cost, Romney should go for the new missile shield in Europe. THAT will send a direct message to Putin and it will make him think twice before threatening Europe.
Escape Velocity,
I’m tired of racist comments of this kind. There’s free speech in America, but not on my comments page. Be so kind as to post somewhere else.
I didnt think it was racist at all. Probably culturalist. Maybe I phrased it poorly.
The underlying culture is Christian and European and that is why Im less concerned about it long term, it actually has the makings of a workable civil society as we can see from the largely peaceful protestors.
Evangelical Christianity spreading in China is good news on the geo-political front.
Sorry, if I rubbed you the wrong way. It wasnt meant in a racist manner, but rather a cultural manner.
actually I think putin is in power because 63% of russians voted for him at the last election. how is that undemocratic? in America you can’t get elected unless you have the backing of goldman sachs.
I think a lot of the hostility towards Russia in the media (including here at PJ Media) comes from folks who would prefer they behave like an American satrapy.
Considering various American provocations; the Orange revolution, the provocations of our “pro-democracy” organizations in Russia, the “advice” our economists gave them in the 90s which allowed the Oligarchy to come to power, the dumb missile batteries on their borders, arming the loon in Georgia, bombing Serbia, the overheated rhetoric of McCain and Romney, etc, it is kind of amazing they are as friendly as they are. They’re allowing military overflights for our efforts in Afghanistan; a fact I find mind-boggling.
I was against bombing Serbia, and (as I made clear) against getting involved in Ukraine (Poland’s a different story. They’re Western and our friend and ally). As for the economists in the early 90s: I was there. I was one of them. We had nothing to do with it. Russians looted Russia blind while we attended conferences.
I agree about Serbia, but disagree about Ukraine. Ukraine desperately needed US support, and it got it partially.
Russian-Ukrainian relations are too complicated to discuss, but for Russia’s imperial ambitions – to control Ukraine is a death and life question. Giving up on Ukraine (no matter how bizarre Ukraine may look politically) simply means to give Putin’s gang a huge advantage in Europe and to some extent – in world politics.
Ukraine does not need or want US “support” except for the population in and around Lvov. Everyone else, whether ethnically Ukrainian and Orthodox Christian, or, ethnically Ukrainian Orthodox Christian and Russian speaking, or ethnically Russian Orthodox Christian and Russian speaking, considers themselves part of Russia.
Credit where it is due on Serbia and Ukraine. I believe there were many well intentioned people at work in Russia in those days. No doubt you and your friends weren’t personally involved in the looting of Russia, but Andrei Shleifer and Larry Summers certainly were. When they returned to the US, both were rewarded. People talk a lot about “Russian paranoia,” but viewed from their perspective, it’s “Russian gullibility.”
The missile base in Poland … well, the Poles don’t really feel a great danger from “Iran.” Neither do the Czechs, whose voting public also doesn’t want it. I thought Bush missed a great opportunity to get access to Azerbaijani radar installations back in 2007. The whole affair seems to be designed to rub the Rooskie nose in it, which serves no useful purpose.
But it does serve a useful purpose. .. for the folks that have made their careers (and continue to profit from) perpetuating a hitherto non-existent cold war..
No Spengler, thank the Russians for Russia’s resurgence.
leapfrog Russia’s SAM technology. That’s the hard part.
Sort of, but we’ve already done it or are doing it. While on the one hand we’ve abandoned the Wild Weasel approach of taking them out on the ground (requires specialized aircraft which we didn’t build after the F-4 (!)), two other obvious methods are “don’t be seen” and “don’t care so much if you get hit”. The former was addressed by the F-22 (pity we were too cheap to build enough) and might be by the F-35 if the latter doesn’t turn out to be this era’s TFX debacle.
Or use unmanned drones to (initially) penetrate heavily defended areas.
Actually, we already have leapfrogged their missile technology. The US Navy’s SM3 family of interceptors is proof of this, and they just keep getting better with each new upgrade.
As far as Wild Weasel aircraft goes, the Navy and Marines still maintain a fleet of electronic jammers capable of filling the SEAD role. The F-16 has also been modified to take over from the ole Rhino.
AS far as upcoming developments goes, the EA-18G is probably the plane to which others will be compared (used to be the EA-6B). The Next Generation Jammer the Navy is currently working on, will be able to actually infect an adversary’s systems with malware, among other things. Then there’s the CHAMP which is a small cruise missile which can be deployed by just about any of our tactical aircraft or bombers and uses directed microwaves to selectively knock out an adversary’s systems (computer or otherwise).
The Bear does not scare me. He’s not really a very big bear and he can’t really hurt me. He DOES eat islamists however so I kinda like the bear. He has a lot of material resources too and we need some of them and we can make a buck helping the bear get them out of the g round.
He does not eat Islamists. 40% of Russia’s population are Muslims.
That’s 14% not 40%
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47883
–anyone trying to get into the territory topic, try the wikis on Moldova (on the Carpathian watershed Dnieper) and Nagorno-Karabach. Both places contain Stalin-installed (no doubt for just the reason given here) Russian-speaking (and passport-carrying, a la South Ossetia and Abkhazia) populations which could, in South Ossetia fashion, call for relief from whatever civil unrest might for any reason form up around them. Putin speaks of them as the “frozen conflicts” left over from the USSR dissolution. Relief for either population (actually in the NK case a military base with dependents) would require an overland crossing of Ukraine (in Moldova’s case) and Azerbaijan (capital Baku the central terminus of entire Caspian pipeline export industry). The Azeris are friendly with Turkey and the west, and the conflict is with Russia-friendly and Turkey-hating (recall the Armenian Genocide issue) Armenia.
IOW, just as the South Ossetia end of the Roki Tunnel unbottled Russian armies from impassable-winters behind the Caucasus mountain range (South Ossetia debouches more-or-less onto the road to the Persian Gulf, and Mecca, for that matter) and we-the-people here in USA learned too late the huge strategic significance of, the exact same dynamic occurs and repeats in both the Moldova and the NK ‘frozen conflicts’. Putin means to say, what is frozen can be thawed.
Indeed, during the 2008 Russo/Goergia War, a well-known Russian radio DJ with a very large audience was on the air calling for the armed forces to roll right on through Tbilisi and then just keep driving south “…until someone stops us”.
PS, please note that the ‘aggressive west’ theme given here in this thread as well as world-wide counterbalance to Putin’s bellicosity, is about 100% the doing of the same new-left wing of the USA Democratic party, starting with George Soros, the NGOs, and the plethora of Carter admin foreign policy retreads hanging out in Tbilisi egging on Georgia and her Harvard president to insult the warlord across the mountain.
This bunch, in order to serve the needs of Putin either accidentally or on purpose, could hardly have been more active. Indeed, they could not have done more than to heap atop a collapsed Red Army the Bosnian War and the NATO expansion eastward, to bring Mr Putin and the anti-west St. Petersburg faction of the KGB to power. What better way to elect a nationalist patriot, and forget about that old-fashioned KGB business, than to join Napoleon and Hitler and send western armies into (or over) the Slavic lands to kill Slavs?
One of the main braintrusters writing these policies for the Clintons, is also the man most effective in shielding Fannie Mae from congressional interruption during the critical couple years when she was committing the irreparable damage to the USA. His name is Tom Donilon, and he is your National Security Adviser.
Whatever damage he has done to his country –and it is pretty extensive imho –is mirrored on the other side of the ledger by serendipities he has presented to Mr Putin, not the least of which is the astounding good luck of the Donilon-client Fannie Mae’s handiwork, the 2008 financial crash (especially the war-contemporaneous Aug-Sept bank panic) –which all allowed Mr Putin to almost hide what should’ve been a major international incident of the gravest nature –that is, the setting up the pretexts and conditions and then the invasion and occupation of a tiny neighbor, the cutting up of the territory into pieces, the annexing of two of the pieces (a third of the country) for military bases which lay open the approach to the Europe-critical BTC pipeline –and the warm waters of the global fuel-tank beyond.
But folks can search Donilon and draw their own conclusions. Or Bill Clinton’s angel and sponsor Senator William Fulbright’s Kremlin contacts that so bedeviled LBJ when he was trying to fight a war in SE Asia, and the senate foreign relations committee chairman Fulbright was reporting meeting minutes to the Russians.
Here’s something you won’t see everyday, tho. From 2009, it fills in a little more on NSA Donilon, for years in the 90s and 2000s and up to the very last meeting before the financial crisis began to unfold among the various guests of the committee, one of two members of the Bilderberg steering committee, the other being one Peter Sutherland, then head of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Goldman Sachs/Europe, British Petroleum board of directors, founding member of the World Bank, financial advisor to the Vatican, and 32nd degree Freemason.
…and now, our National Security Adviser. Nope, you could not put it into a novel and expect a publisher to read it. And it is far from over, i’m deeply afraid.
I’m having trouble with this whole “strategic resurgence” thing. Is there *any* area in which Russia can said to actually be stronger since Putin took over?
One can believe in “strategic resurgence” of Russia only taking Putin’s bluff at a face value. Most of these grand projects he announced are just Potemkin villages, carton facades with no real stuff behind. In military industry projects more than 80% of money assigned simply disappear into pockets of participants. Theft of government money became national pastime. The country is ungovernable, and this get worse with every passing month. This regime is doomed and will unravel faster than anybody can guess. And all western Kremlinologists will be surprised again as they were by sudden collapse of USSR.
The LNG and gas pipelines aren’t Potemkin villages. That’s the real McCoy. The big LNG deal in Vladivostok for the Japanese is a breakthrough; I was talking to a national security type at lunch today who was shaking his head about it. The Japanese had made a point for years of avoiding dependency on Russian energy, and now they are coming out with their hands up. Bad stuff. But it’s all Washington’s fault. Putin’s just doing what he does best.
Wrong again Spengler. This is good news, because eventually Russia and the US are on the same wavelength. Your problem is that you’ve been excluded from turning a buck on it.
Gee, let’s see now. Egypt should have been bankrupt, according to you they should have been starving (that didn’t quite pan out). Ah yes, you equated Egypt with Greece (and other European countries not of your eclectic tastes) “the people are the problem” that didn’t quite pan out either. So, I guess we can blame it all on the Russkies eh Spengler? Of course it couldn’t have anything to do with our shortsightedness now could it?
–i think, beginning with the titling of the essay, the author is trying to say that it could “…have (some)thing to do with our shortsightedness….”
David;
Most of your article is right on the money. However, Putin is a KGB but he loves Mother Russia (unlike the current occupant in the WH who doesn’t love the US as it was founded) & wants to restore at least part of the old Empire. Russia holds W-EU hostage w/ its crude & gas. They’re trying to balance power btw us, China & Islam parts of Asia. Long term, it ain’t gonna happen. Read Mark Steyn’s book “America alone.” One cannot argue w/ demographics; Russia, Ukraine, E-EU are dying 2:1. By 2030-50 EU-Russia & EU itself are going to be majority Muslim.
I’m re-posting my earlier comment so that Larsen can read it:
Larsen:
I’m also impressed w/ Mr. X; very erudite. The term ‘Velvet R.’ never was part of Gorby’s glasnost/perestroika; Gorby himself is a KGB, btw. The term VR is from Czechoslovakia of November 1989. I visited Prague in 1991 after 21 years split btw Switzerland & the US & could see through the sham right off the bat. Just like Russia, the CZ has been plundered blind during the so-called privatization and it’s still going on; the hyenas are fighting over the crumbs. My closest friends (all non-commies) were mad at me then and apologized to me a few years later. Being raised in a truly dissident (The Chart 77 of V. Havel was a smokescreen full of CZ KGB types) & persecuted family, we always connected the dots & knew what’s going on.
That movie is right on & the comment re: Soviets creating the Islam terror in the ’60s is also true. Many of the early Muslim terrorists from the USSR in the ’60s were trained in CZ. Here’s the clincher as I’ve stated before. Russia/USSR is historically anti-Semitic (Pogrom is a Russian word!) Russia’s ‘allegiance’ w/ Israel is but a subterfuge serving Putin’s, et al, purposes. One among many being the control recapture of the C-Asia. I’m sure the Israelis know that.
Lastly, for you history buffs out there. Yeltsin ordered in 1977 (then a regional KGB capo) the ruins of the house in Yekaterinburg where the Czar’s family was executed in 1918 to be bulldozed & razed. The blood and the bullet holes were still visible. A church stands there today. My great-uncle was a colonel w/ the Czech Legion (real history is rarely in books):
On 16 July 1918 forces of the Czech legion were closing on Yekaterinburg (900 miles E from Moscow), not realizing that Russia’s royal family was being held under house arrest there. The Bolsheviks, believing that the Czechs were on a mission to rescue the Russian royals, panicked and executed their wards. The real reason for the Czechs being in Yekaterinburg was to protect the Trans-Siberian Railway, of which they had total control. Circumstance played a large part in the execution of the Russian royal family. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_the_Romanov_family
http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/nicholas.htm
Robert, if your assertion that “By 2030-50 EU-Russia & EU itself are going to be majority Muslim” reflects the quality of your thinking, then there is not much point reading you.
One thing is crystal clear to me: western europe and (historic) Russia are not going muslim anytime soon. Actually I believe they never will. That does not mean that we are not going to face very hard times. But the end-result is not in doubt. Don’t underestimate the potential for violence at the heart of most indigenous european populations.
Robert, your comment sets off a dozen trains of thought –for me that often results in no answer at all as in the thread comment form the topic so quickly overwhelms.
So before i sigh and surrender, let me point you to this:
http://www.financialsense.com/user/164
I’ve mentioned this body of work several times this thread, but haven’t really described its value and allure. All of these essays concern the largest forces struggling to create the destiny of the planet, yet none are over a 3 to 5-minute read commenting on links to items otherwise obscure but very telling and fraught with import. The author is clearly bending every effort to conform to internet attention spans and classic stagecraft (‘always leave ‘em wanting more’).
The allure is just that, the framing –the most urgently-avoided topics can be downed in a quick gulp. Meaning these essays are what you can send to folks that you wish understood more of what is happening and how it has happened, and who is doing what.
As you’ll see (i hope!), the archive goes back to just before the WTC attack 09/11/2001, and having glanced over it with an eye to recommending some particular passage that (your comment indicates) may especially interest you, let me point to the columns from January and February of 2011.
===
As Severa Gjurin sings in her Bob Dylan cover, “It’s Not Dark Yet, But It’s Getting There.”
The author of this post on West Nile Virus makes the point that Russia seems to be way ahead of the US w/respect to bio-security – http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2012/09/16/cdc-us-health-system-bungles-wnv-biosecurity-belongs-to-the-military/.
If true, the post further illustrates the point that a decadent US establishment can’t focus on the essentials.
“…a decadent US establishment can’t focus on the essentials” –a note for that file:
http://www.bing.com/search?q=andrew+stern+smallpox&form=IE8SRC&src=IE-SearchBox
Thanks Buddy. I could laugh at it but it only makes me want to cry for our country. I guess Stern will insure that contributions are properly bundled to BHO.
Prior to enacting the author’s recommended steps to reduce Russian influence, one other measure is necessary: first & foremost replace the current US administration.
Larsen;
Tnx for your reply & the link. My post wasn’t up till the 23rd (I ‘czeched’ on the 22nd), so, I just read your comment & finished the article by JRN ‘The Science of Subversion.’ I knew about that stuff as a kid just eavesdropping on the adults including the massacred millions under ‘batuschka Stalin.’
The Cheka, NKVD, GRU, KGB, at al, perfected the psycho-terror long time ago. After all, they trained the Gestapo. The NKVD/CZ-KGB had the then Secretary of State Jan Masaryk executed in 1948; he was a great statesman. They made it look like a suicide but didn’t do a good job. Recently, it has been forensically proven that he was pushed out of his bathroom window at the Czernin Palace behind the Royal Castle in Prague. Btw, he dated non other than Marcia Davenport, now obscure but very good NYC Jewish writer originally from Russia or the Ukraine.
Take it from me, some families won’t cooperate at any cost; the ‘mot du jour’ is defiance & contempt. We paid the price for it but no regrets.
Few humans cannot be fooled even as kids. For bragging rights, as a four-year-old toddler, I had to go in the early ’50s to the red-bro run daycare, even though my mother was a homemaker. Always after propaganda, snack, play or lunchtime, the commie teachers (all female) were trying to get us squeal, snitch & snoop on our families, asking ‘innocently’, do your parents love the USSR, etc.? Most kids did. I clearly remember being filled w/ anger & rage; I knew then that such a thing is evil despite being clueless re: politics. I solved my dilemma quickly & efficiently. I’ve wreaked such havoc there that they kicked me out. I went happily back to my mom, who let me play the way I wanted it. Grandma said it tellingly: “Robert, you were born w/ a flame in your butt.” There you have it, I’m the ‘original rocketeer.’
Robert of Prague,
In fairness I should fill you in on my ongoing debates with ole’ Buddy Larsen dating back to 2008, when many commenters at the Belmont Club blog here at PJM were absolutely certain that anyone suggesting that the Georgian government of Mikhail Sakashvili screwed up royally was denounced as a Lubyanka/SVR plant (the SVR actually isn’t in the old Lubyanka dept. store, that would be the domestically focused/FBI equivalent FSB, but oh well).
I have long suggested, and Buddy seems amenable to this, that U.S.-Russia policy from the 1990s on after Reagan/Bush 41 successfully handled the transition from Communism without WWIII was ‘hijacked’ by a globalist/transnationalist faction — one that sees both the U.S. and Russia as mere vehicles to be manipulated or husks to be plucked.
While our host Spengler insists it was Russians who did most of the looting of their own country during that low dishonest decade, and he would be correct, it’s also true that Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Boris Berezovsky did not acquire the capital to buy the choicest parts of the Soviet carcass in corrupt loans for shares auctions from thin air, nor from their early efforts at Komsomol capitalism selling jeans off the backs of pick up trucks at Gorkiy Park in 1988-89. The money came from abroad, which partly explains why Putin felt such urgency to step up and rebuild the State Security apparatus pronto upon taking office in 1999. He understood that if the State did not fight back Russia would find its largest and most lucrative assets entirely in the hands of foreigners and the State would never be able to even pay the most minimal of pensions or salaries to ensure social stability.
And as Exhibit A in the evidence that the oligarchs had foreign ‘kryshes’ or ‘roofs’ in the Russian slang, let me direct you to Moscow-based Aussie reporter John Helmer’s blog posts about David Rothschild and Oleg Deripaska’s shall we say, recent odd behavior around Lord Rothschild, including actions that appear to be that of an employee toward an employer on their Siberian junket, that was the subject of a libel suit Rothschild lost in British courts. Now again this has absolutely zero to do with anti-Semitism or ludicrous theories that the Rothschilds run the world because of their genes or a kosher cabal, it is merely pointing out that they may be more than an old European family of historically signifigance but nothing more. In fact in terms of the Bible and knowledge of Judaism I daresay this American gentile who’s lived and worked in Moscow might be more Jewish than Msr. Rothschild, at least in Sunday school knowledge of the OT.