Israel’s Options After America’s Foreign Policy Debacle (from Gatestone)
Blowback in Egypt
Egyptian President Morsi’s announcement that he will visit Tehran on Aug. 30 occurs a week after Morsi purged the military leadership. Qatar’s $2 billion loan to Egypt announced the morning of Aug. 12 preceded Morsi’s purge by hours. The Obama administration sought to portray Morsi’s new army chief, General el-Sissi, as an “an ideal compromise between the secular-minded military old guard and Mr. Morsi’s Brotherhood ,” as the Wall Street Journal wrote.
People with knowledge of the Egyptian military said Gen. Sissi has a broad reputation within military circles as a Muslim Brotherhood sympathizer, a rare trait in a military culture inured against Islamism. “Sissi is known inside the military for being a Muslim Brother in the closet,” said Zeinab Abul Magd, a professor at the American University in Cairo and an expert on Egypt’s military.
The notion of an “ideal compromise” is turning out to be absurd. The younger officers can’t reproduce the career path of their elders, who will be retiring to yachts in Monaco, because the Egyptian economy is sucked dry and there’s nothing more to loot. The old regime said in effect, Après moi le deluge. I can only imagine the apocalyptic stirrings among the younger officers. This has been brewing for some time; as the New York Times reported Aug. 16,
The chief of staff of Egypt’s armed forces argued in a paper that the American military presence in the Middle East and its “one sided” support of Israel were fueling hatred toward the United States and miring it in an unwinnable global war with Islamist militants. The paper, written seven years ago by the new chief of staff, Gen. Sedky Sobhi, offers an early and expansive look into the thinking of one member of the new generation of military officers stepping into power as part of a leadership shake-up under Egypt’s newly elected president, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In Ha’aretz, Avi Issacharoff adds:
The fears in Israel of a deterioration in relations with Egypt, following President Mohammed Morsi’s removal from office of the head of the Supreme Military Council, Hussein Tantawi, and armed forces chief Sami Anan, are both premature and exaggerated. ..[but] there there are some causes for concern.
…
The development that, more than any other, should set off warning bells in Jerusalem, is the unilateral action taken by the Egyptians in Sinai during the past few days. Israel had prior knowledge about, and consented to, the use of some of the military reinforcements that were sent into the peninsula as well as the warplanes that were employed. But Egypt took action above and beyond what both sides agreed the Egyptian military needed to do in order to operate throughout Sinai. It turns out that additional forces were sent in, almost without anyone noticing, and without Jerusalem’s agreement.
The Times account commented, “American officials said their confidence in Egypt was unshaken, while analysts argued that despite the changes in the nation’s military and civilian leadership, any realignment in relations with Washington could be slow — in part because of Egypt’s urgent need for assistance from the United States and the West.” That is an egregious error, because the most that Egypt can expect is enough assistance to allow the poorer half of its population to keep body and soul together (and with the rise in food prices, perhaps not even that). Cozying up to Iran does not suggest that Morsi will go hat in hand to the Saudis, but rather that he will try to blackmail them. It is a high-risk strategy, but the Egyptians really don’t have a lot to lose.
Severe economic distress benefits the Muslim Brotherhood. I wrote in the Asia Times April 11 under the headline “Muslim Brotherhood Chooses Chaos,” that the Brotherhood would use shortages of food and fuel to consolidate its power in the street:
As Egypt headed towards chaotic breakdown, Western observers asked how its economy might be stabilized. This appears to have been the wrong question to begin with, for the Muslim Brotherhood will not allow the West to stabilize Egypt’s financial position. The right question is: who will benefit from the chaos?
At this writing, the Muslim Brotherhood appears to be the winner by default, for no other actor has the courage and cold blood to exploit the emerging crisis. America, by contrast, is locked into the defense of a deteriorating fixed position. And Egypt’s military leaders are more concerned with feathering their nests in exile, like the Iranian generals in 1979.
The Brotherhood believes that widespread hunger will strengthen its political position, and is probably correct to believe this. As the central government’s corrupt and rickety system of subsidies collapses, local Islamist organizations will take control of food distribution and establish a virtual dictatorship on the streets. American analysts mistook the protestors of Tahrir Square for revolutionaries. The Muslim Brotherhood now reveals itself to be a revolutionary organization on the Leninist or Nazi model.
Wishful thinking blinded American analysts to the Muslim Brotherhood’s intent and methods. As late as Aug. 2, Fox News commentator Fouad Ajami still argued that “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi Arabia’s rulers bury their differences to fight the Shiite enemy,” adding, “An Egyptian alliance with Saudi Arabia is the beginning of wisdom — a necessary, though hardly sufficient, condition for Egypt finding a way out of its crippling past.”
On the contrary, the Muslim Brotherhood appears to believe that there is no way out of Egypt’s “crippling past” (45% illiteracy, 90% rate of female genital mutilation, 30% rate of consanguineous marriages, 50% dependency on imported food). Half of Egyptians live at the verge of starvation on $2 or less a day, dependent on the government bread subsidy, and the Brotherhood exploits their privation and fear to maintain political control in Orwellian fashion.
Washington, in sum, has helped to create a monster in the form of the Morsi government. The Israelis have to assume that Camp David is dead and that sooner rather than later, a new front will open against them in the South.
Iran’s Threats to Saudi Arabia
Morsi came back from his July visit to Saudi Arabia empty handed. The Saudis evidently did not want to fund a movement committed to the overthrow of the House of Saud. Morsi appears to have chosen to ally with Iran to threaten the Saudis. A report by the Indian journalist Saeed Naqvi suggests the thrust of Iranian policy: Threaten the Saudis with subversion in Eastern Province, perhaps via adjacent Bahrain, as well as assassination. Writes Naqvi:
To please some in the West, a possible result may already have been achieved in West Asia: quarreling Muslim Societies, too self-absorbed to worry about Israel or Palestine. But a prolonged sectarian strife may not be entirely to Saudi Arabia’s liking. It has its own oil rich Eastern province to worry about. Dammam, the centre of this province, is directly linked by a 37 km causeway to the troubled Kingdom of Bahrain with its 80 percent Shia population in revolt against the Sunni King. Bahrain is home to the United States 5th fleet and a holiday resort for the Saudis tired of their own institutionalized austerities.
And:
Since the death of successive Crown Princes Sultan bin Abdel Aziz in October 2011 and Naef bin Abdel Aziz in June 2012, intimations of mortality are knocking at the doors of a series of prospective successors. King Abdullah himself was in hospital in Europe when the Arab Spring disturbed his convalescence. In February 2011 he returned and took charge. He faces dissensions at home. There have been unconfirmed reports that Saudi Spy Chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan has been assassinated. In the absence of any official Saudi confirmation or denial, speculation and innuendo are rife. Former Chief of India’s External intelligence Agency and Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, Vikram Sood says: “What must have stunned the Saudi government into silence was not just that Bandar was killed but that the Syrians had the reach to strike deep in Saudi Arabia.”
Sanctions against Iran, meanwhile, are held in open contempt by a great deal of the world. Reuters Aug. 10:
Asia’s major crude buyers are finding ways around tough U.S. and EU sanctions to maintain imports from Iran, suggesting that, for now, the worst may be over for the OPEC producer that is losing more than $100 million a day in oil export revenues. China, India, Japan and South Korea buy most of the one million barrels per day of crude Iran is able to export despite financial, shipping and insurance sanctions aimed at curbing funds for its controversial nuclear programme. After a lull in imports in the middle of the year caused by Asian refineries reducing purchases as sanctions kicked in, analysts expect shipments to rise in August and September. But on average, imports are likely to remain steady until the end of the year, unless the United States and the European Union come up with fresh sanctions to curb Iran’s earnings.
“The drop in Iranian oil exports has leveled out over the past couple months at roughly 1 million barrels per day below 2011 levels,” said Trevor Houser, a partner at the New York-based Rhodium Group and a former State Department adviser.
The Saudi Gazette notes that with oil prices rising, “Tehran seems to be enjoying the unexpected windfall- despite the odds.”
Iraq is also helping Iran skirt financial sanctions, and continuing to do so in open contempt of American actions. President Obama personally announced in June that the U.S. was “cutting off” the Elaf Islamic Bank, “but the treatment the bank has received in Baghdad since it was named by Mr. Obama suggests that the Iraqi government is not only allowing companies and individuals to circumvent the sanctions but also not enforcing penalties for noncompliance” (New York Times). Iran is also trading currency and gold through Afghanistan. Again, the New York Times: “On its own, the rush of Iranian money to Afghanistan is unlikely to be enough to undercut the sanctions, which are the cornerstone of Western efforts to coerce Iran into abandoning its nuclear program. But it is clear that American officials are worried. … The Iranians are ‘in essence using our own money, and they’re getting around what we’re trying to enforce,’ one American official said.”
With inflation in the mid-20s, Iranians are buying local real estate, al-Arabiya reports:
With increased sanctions, the demand went up for gold, foreign currency and anything independent of the rial. In fact, the real estate market in Tehran has been growing over the last six months. It had slowed in previous years due to a housing crash just like everywhere else. People are even putting money into real estate in poorer neighborhoods, which means people are continuing to take money out of the banks and invest it in housing.
Iran’s economy is hurting but in no danger of collapse in the near future.
Regarding Turkey, I wrote in The Gate on July 31:
Turkey’s application to join the Sino-Russian Shanghai Cooperation Organization following Prime Minister Erdogan’s July 19 pilgrimage to Russia is a diplomatic humiliation for the United States, and of the first order. Just when Washington is demanding that Russia withdraw support for the Assad regime in Syria, and when Turkey is the linch-pin for American logistics in support of the Syrian opposition, Erdogan has proposed in effect to joint the Russian-Chinese club (without being compelled to hand in his NATO credentials).
What Would be the Consequences of an Israeli Strike Against Iran?
Israeli (and Western) views are sharply polarized. New York Times columnist Roger Cohen, reflecting briefings from the Israeli left, concluded:
But a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran today would be disastrous. It unites Iran in fury; locks in the Islamic Republic for a generation; gives a substantial boost to the wobbling Assad regime in Syria; radicalizes the Arab world at a moment of delicate transition; ignites Hezbollah on the Lebanese border; boosts Hamas; endangers U.S. troops in the region; sparks terrorism; propels oil skyward; rocks a vulnerable global economy; triggers a possible regional war; offers a lifeline to Iran just as sanctions are biting; adds a never-to-be-forgotten Persian vendetta to the Arab vendetta against Israel; and may at best set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions a couple of years or at worst accelerate its program by prompting it to rush for a bomb and throw out International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.
The counterargument is that all of these things, and worse, are happening in any case. Yoram Ettinger, a former senior Israeli diplomat, argued in Israel HaYom Aug. 17 that an Israeli initiative to strike Iran would benefit America’s world standing, even if the present administration opposed such a strike. He wrote:
On June 3, 1967, U.S. President Johnson pressured Prime Minister Eshkol against pre-empting the pro-Soviet Egypt-Syria-Jordan military axis, which threatened the survival of moderate Arab regimes (e.g., Saudi Arabia) and Israel’s existence. Johnson advised that “Israel will not be alone unless it decides to go alone. We cannot imagine that [Israel] will make this decision.”
Johnson warned that a unilateral Israeli military pre-emptive strike could trigger severe regional turmoil, transform Israel into a belligerent state, and preclude assistance by the U.S. Johnson refrained from implementing the 1957 unilateral and multilateral guarantees issued to Israel by Eisenhower. He insisted that Israel should rely on the diplomatic-multilateral option.
Eshkol defied Johnson. He pre-empted the anti-U.S., Arab axis; devastated a clear and present danger to vital Western interests; rescued the House of Saud from the wrath of Nasser; expedited the end of the pro-Soviet Nasser regime and the rise of the pro-U.S. Sadat regime in Egypt; dealt a major setback to Soviet interests; and demonstrated Israel’s capability to snatch the hottest chestnuts out of the fire, without a single U.S. boot on the ground. He transformed the image of Israel from a national security consumer (a client state) to a national security producer (a strategic ally).
Eshkol realized that a defiant national security policy — in defense of the Jewish state — yielded a short-term political and diplomatic spat with the U.S., but resulted in a long-term national security upgrade and dramatically enhanced strategic respect.
The Israeli government will make the difficult choice on its own, independent of what outside analysts might say. But the events of the past week surely strengthen the case that there is far less to lose by attacking Iran than the Obama administration believes.
I expected war by now – in fact last year. With the feckless and distracted 0bumbler admin with their sharia loving state dept in ‘charge’, I expect that Israel has no choice than attack Persia before Nov American elections. After Nov, 0bumbler win or lose will actually attack Israel on behalf of his Nazi allies
[The Arab/Muslim Nazi Connection
http://www.cdn-friends-icej.ca/medigest/may00/arabnazi.html.
To add to the mix, please read – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/07/12/a-global-conflagration-is-upon-usdespite-the-persistent-dreamers-in-our-midst-addendum-to-the-mother-of-all-wars-is-upon-us-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/,
and – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/07/07/the-mother-of-all-wars-is-knocking-at-our-door-wishful-thinking-is-not-an-option-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki-2/.
In this regard, it is infinitely clear – pre-emptive striking IS the only option left!!
The region’s “rain season” begins mid- to late- October and lasts until Spring, which would affect both aerial operations and missile defense systems. Something Israel’s military planners are no doubt taking into account.
Raymond, you are correct….moon patterns too…but see this ‘http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/08/21/the-mother-of-all-strikes-a-very-real-possibility-to-be-unleashed-against-iran-adina-kutnicki/.
We will wake up, one morning in the near future, hardly knowing what havoc was wrecked the night before…only to hear sirens blaring throughout the country…and, to those of us who have offspring in the army (2 Reservists of my own)…calls that they are off to protect our homeland.
It is what it is.
Prayers more than welcome!
USA won’t attack Iran because USA doesn’t know how to win a war anymore; the record speaks for itself. Israel is, as usual, abusing its position of influence in the run-up to the presidential election.
A general question -
What has happened to our top military brass, that they are abandoning their oath to
protect our country from enemies foreign and domestic and becoming sharia loving proislamists?
Career uber alles.
Oh that’s an easy one. The same thing that has happened to the U.S. Congress. They have all abdicated their constitutional obligations in favor of whatever Obama and his cronies favor, which to date has been a disaster. A disaster for the informed, but not for the sizable portion of our voting citizens who believe that the twin amateurs Obama and Clinton are two of the brightest and best that have ever been in the WH or at State.
I suspect that the leaders of Congress and the Military are huddled in some room whining and wringing their hands and chanting “What a world, What a world”.
Perfumed Princes.
The US Military command structure has never been very good. While the USA has produced some notable military leaders, those exceptions just make the run of the mill flag officer seem worse then they really are. The US government fears a military coup more then a military defeat. That is why for the first century of America’s existence we had more of a constabulary then an army. The early Army spent most of it’s time chasing outlaws, Indians and criminals. War was for the militia.
That changed during and after the War of Secession. The south had the Military leaders. The north had Grant, the factories and millions of farm boys. Time and again the south defeated the north. Time and again the north made good it’s loses, re-equipped it’s fresh draftees and attacked some more. That set the US Army on the path to attrition warfare.
When you are a continent that thinks it is a country, with a treasure trove of natural resources, a gifted, hard-working, innovative population, attrition warfare WORKS. Even better, it requires no leadership.
So after 200+ years, the USA has stupid, lazy generals. They advance by their bureaucratic skills. Military competence is frowned upon. They are dogs, trained to heel.
Fortunately, our weapons wizards produce the finest weapons there are. The people using them are intelligent, skilled and motivated. Good enough to win even with dumb and dumber leading them and Alfred E, Newman in overall high command.
An IAF airstrike is a high risk venture. The best it can do is put a temporary halt to the Iranian nuclear weapons program. It will take about half the IAF and their losses could be as high as 10%.
The USAF can shut down ALL of Iran and the US Navy can keep it shut as long as Congress wants it shut. Without losing more then 2 aircraft ( if that, I’m figuring 2 because some pilot will do something brave and stoopid and at least one Haji will get lucky).
Bush should have done it in 2004.
Celer, Silens, Mortalis.
“Perfumed Princes” – not a bad indictment, although given the political parameters w/in which they operate it is ultimately hard to tell.
“The south had the Military leaders. The north had Grant, the factories and millions of farm boys …” and Meade, and Sheridan and, of course, the indispensible Sherman.
“Time and again the south defeated the north. Time and again the north made good it’s loses, re-equipped it’s fresh draftees and attacked some more” … Yes, hard to say how many more cases where the “south defeated the north” in ‘brilliant’ invasions such as Antietam and Gettysburg, the CSA could have taken.
“That set the US Army on the path to attrition warfare”… a lot of truth there, but of course when he was writing his book on the great 19th century American practitioner of maneuver warfare Liddell Hart choose as his subject neither Lee, nor Jackson nor Stuart, but W.T. Sherman.
‘As Amos Harel observed in yesterday’s roundtable of Gatestone analysts, Israel already faces rocket attacks in parts of the country previously considered immune’
This and all the other ‘situations’ that Israel now faces are the ‘peace dividends’ now bearing their fruit.
Israel’s religious devotion to the U.S. led Road Map is now being rewarded,full bloom.
What I don’t hear any ex-spurts and talking heads mentioning is how U.S. policy is directly responsible for weakening and restraining Israel and emboldening her neighbors far and wide.
It was President Bush who twisted P.M. Sharon’s arm to ethnically cleanse every living and dead Jew from Gaza as well as coming to the rescue of Hezbollah and Hamas to embolden Iran.
What a discouraged Iran we would have today if Israel had not been bullied into retreating by the President who loved to hold hands with his Saudi counterpart.
The U.S. policy where Israel has been forced to appeases and reward bad behavior,goodwill gestures and the like will have severe blow back on the U.S.,the originator of this nefarious.phony peace scheme hatched in hell.
You can bank on divine payback for our dirty deed that Israel must dig out of now all by themselves.
After this war Israel will have learned a painful lesson; America is not Israel’s God.
Without defending the policies of various US administrations to restrain Israel, one must concede that every time the Israeli jets cross international boundaries the potential for a general conflagration of the Middle East arises. That would interrupt the world’s supply of crude oil, not just for days or weeks but perhaps for years. Such an interruption would not be a mere inconvenience; western economies would be strangled, millions of jobs lost, perhaps there would be civil unrest, even open conflict in some other areas as nations scrambled to secure the remaining supplies. So far, it hasn’t happened, but it could. Hence the almost pathetic efforts to constrain Israel, and others as well, from military actions in the Middle East.
All the more reason to drill and use our own limitless oil in Alaska and the Dakotas. Secure our energy I dependence and back Israel’s play. I’ll fight for them.
Considering the looming bankruptcy of Egypt, I have been amazed at the news the last few weeks. I am not a fan of conspiracy theories generally, but I have to wonder if we are not watching a grand conspiracy unfold.
Consider:
The military knows the nation is bankrupt and that there is no way the country can avoid a massive economic catastrophe. They don’t have a way out and don’t want to be blamed. So they hand off to the Brotherhood. But the Brotherhood DID NOT HAVE to take the handoff. They could easily have let the military retain control, get blamed for the disaster, and then assert control after the fact. Instead, they deliberately insert themselves into the political power structure. Since it is difficult to believe they don’t know about the looming cash crunch, they are clearly thinking they can survive the coming storm.
So what is the plan and where is this headed? Most importantly, who is going to eat when the food runs out?
I don’t see how this is resolved in any reasonable scenario. I think we are looking at a massive humanitarian disaster, followed by several (hopefully brief) wars.
I think the scapegoats are going to take all of the blame, once they are identified. Israel and the Coptic Christian community are obvious targets, but they will likely not be the only ones. There is going to be a lot of pain and suffering going around and human nature says someone is going to have to pay for that.
Re:”who is going to eat when the food runs out?”
Answer: most of the important ones. Food will never run out, it will always be supplied by the hated US. Just look at NorK for an example on how it works.
There will be no cash crunch in Egypt. A billion or two from Qatar and support from Iran and other unnamed sources will keep the Egyptian people fed and clothed. The US will beg the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to take money and arms from them. Why will this be the inevitable course of events? Because a famine in Egypt will, as it should, cause massive migration to Europe, the US and other areas including South America. No one wishes to be directly responsible for such threat to local hegemonies. Better to pay up front.
Support for the Muslim Brotherhood also reduces Israel’s ability to live in peace, a goal of most everyone nowadays. That Egyptians will be slaughtered in the Sinai is just fine with those in the West. As long as the Israelis are prevented from dominating world commerce, media, and industry, then almost any price is worth it. A million dead Egyptians is not too high a price to pay. Such is the world view of the European and Muslim Antisemites.
Of course, the proper response to chaos in Egypt by the US and Europe should be the strengthening of ties between Israel and Egypt. The logic of supporting local industry with Israeli industrial partners is too positive a role to play since Israel will be strengthened, when the goal is to weaken it.
In my personal thinking, until now I have never ascribed to the prophetic view that quotes the strange promise of God to Abraham in Genesis: Those who bless Israel will be blessed and those who curse Israel shall be cursed. How strange to see this ancient view played out in most venues of conflict that includes the Jews. I cannot see these crises as anything but the absolute triumph of irrationality among diverse groups of humans.
How do you figure the numbers? $3 bn monthly trade deficit, minus $4 or $5 billion from the Suez Canal, maybe $5 to %7 in tourism, and something in remittances — I guesstimate an annual financing requirement in the $22 to $25 bn range. That’s about Qatar’s total foreign exchange reserves.
Tourism? I’m thinking that is a pretty bad idea at least in the near term. If someone wants to walk into an ongoing conflict that includes individuals who think blowing up the pyramids would be a good thing THEN have a nice time and don’t ask me for hostage money directly or through taxes. It’s like feeling sorry for someone wandering around the inner city of Detroit at midnight on any given night of the year and assuming nothing could go wrong. No thanks.
We have an Administration that has a massive recto-cranial inversion. Thus it leads from (its) behind.
Israel will make the decisions that need to be made by herself, for herself, which might well be to “grab the bull by the horns”, as the French like to say. There is no way the pentagon does not undestand that, and did not propose, and get approved, suitable contingency plans for a “surprise” Israeli initiative.
Leading from behind is a rather exotic specialty, but some equally exotic operators have demonstrated fluency in this exquisite art form. If the president is cornered into having to support Israel (against his superior judgment, of course), he will, because that will be his only “option”! He may in fact welcome someone else taking the blame for setting things in motion.
Fluidity, What a concept!
Did you mean Quixotic Specialty? Just wondering, seems more the norm these days.
#2: “What has happened to our top military brass …”?
I’d say the blame falls on the voters. This is true not only in presidential elections, but right now, w/respect to every member of Congress. Every congressman is potentially open to influence from constituents to take a stand against Iran. For example, Congress could pass a limited use of force resolution giving the president authority to act against the Iranian nuclear program and associated targets with military force should he see it as necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons production capability. This would be a dramatic sign to both the administration and to Iran that there is credible and broad based support in the U.S. to act w/military force.
W/respect to U.S. Orthodox Jews, a group w/which I identify, this failure is especially painful. One wonders what might have been accomplished if, in addition to 90,000 plus Orthodox Jews attending the recent Siyum HaShas (completion of the 7.5 year daily Talmud study cycle) festivities at Met Life Stadium in NJ, the attendees had spent the day in DC walking the halls of Congress and creating media opportunities. How is this not a case of pikuach nefesh (the commandment to cease all other activities and act as best one can to prevent a significant risk to life)?
#2: “What has happened to our top military brass …”? … w/respect to the common American soldier, many gave and continue to give their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan for wars that were supposed to be about not allowing “the world’s worst leaders to blackmail, threaten, hold freedom-loving nations hostage with the world’s worst weapons. (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/weapons.html#8lsWIMvl2VK5fGaD.99)”.
There is an unavoidable response to the great wickedness,violence,corruption and Sodomite values which the US has been at the forefront in leading by example.
Not even Torah study can erase the stain of the perverse gay parades here and in Jerusalem.
Judgment day is here upon the nations and nothing and no one can stop it,not even Mitten’s Romney.
http://www.injesus.com/messages/content/414964
Whoa, steady Marcel … IMHO, it’s not quite the Day of Judgment. It’s a serious political problem with a serious political solution still possible.
Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, “biblical”?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria!
Mayor: All right, all right! I get the point!
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0)
Jack, Spindok and ShaulieH – Thanks for responses.
Spindok – I didn’t write that they shouldn’t have gone to the SHS, just that it is sad that a similar effort was not made to lobby Congress. I am certainly not qualified to engage in homiletics, but I’d say that I’m only advocating that we humbly follow in the example of our father Jacob/Israel, with a strategy combing prayer with the political techniques of building friendships and being prepared to struggle (engage in politics, in the US context). I’m not suggesting that we “trust in princes”, but that we do what we can to urge them to adopt a wise (for the U.S., Israel and the whole world) course of action. I have been especially inspired by the analysis of Yoram Hazony of Mordechai’s political activism fortified by an ultimate faith in Gd’s goodness and justice (http://yoramhazony.org/books/the-dawn). I could also cite Shemot/Exodus 14:15. Finally, I’d say we are not permitted to rely in miracles.
ShaulieH – I’d say there are many ways to have an effect beyond raw numbers and piles of cash (although those are good). In my experience members of Congress are interested in meeting with open-minded groups of constituents, are often concerned or willing to learn about important issues, and respond to small gestures (ex. a small local Jewish PAC taking out an ad in a Jewish paper to endorse a particular candidate because of certain policies). By way of personal example, several months ago I was part of a small group that met with a U.S. representative concerning Iran. At our urging he co-sponsored HR4137, the Iran Energy Sector and Proliferation Act (subsequently passed and signed). It’s not blowing up the Deathstar with one shot, but as you know, real life activism is the process of small steps.
Jack – There is an Orthodox Jew of my acquaintance (BTW, he’s a Shayner Yid) with a “Keep the Golan in Israel!” bumper sticker on one side of his car and Obama 2008 and 2012 (!) stickers on the other side. Go figure.
Chazak V’ematz—be strong and of good courage
Marc,
interesting times
http://www.trunews.com/Audio/8_20_12_monday_trunews2.mp3
MarcH – Excellent points. Also, I don’t understand why any Jew, let alone an Orthodox Jew would vote for Obama, but I know plenty of the latter who will, much to my deep disappointment.
I believe the answer is fairly simple and will disappoint you even more – assimilation in the US is so deep and broad that the ‘national’ part of Jewish identity has disappeared for most. This includes at least half of the Orthodox, probably more.
I have a nephew who was at the Siyum. Maybe better what they did than engage in politics.
Psalm 118
ט טוֹב, לַחֲסוֹת בַּיהוָה– מִבְּטֹחַ, בִּנְדִיבִים. 9 It is better to take refuge in the LORD than to trust in princes.
Do we mean that? Or is it just poetry? I do not know but these days a little faith is a good thing if you can find it.
RE Orthodox Jews, with whom I also identify, I am sorry, but they are too small a constituency to really have much of an effect yet. 90K people filling a stadium to celebrate a religious milestone is news – 250K people marching in DC is just another Sunday. Frankly, the media find it easy to ignore and undercount rallies of over 1mm people in Washington DC while playing up much smaller rallies by groups like Occupy Wall Street. The Orthodox community does not yet have the numbers to make a dent on things like this. Worse yet, it is concentrated mostly in a single state (NY) that is not really even a player when it comes to Presidential politics. (Too solid blue to matter.)
Q: What possibility is there that Egypt will attempt to annex Libya, and if so what would we do?
Q: If Israel responds to continued provocation by attacking Iran, what is the likelihood that CBW –somebody must have Saddam’s leftovers, plus other homemade stuff– will be used against Israel, and if so, could she even survive such an attack? If such weapons are used, does that draw us in more actively? Jeepers, there is no telling where this situation is headed, is there?
NO chance of Egypt invading Libya. They don’t have the fuel for one thing. The Abrams is a bad-a$$ MBT, but it gets lousy mileage. That doesn’t matter to the US army, which has the world best logistics support and lots of money for fuel. It really sucks for 3rd world mudholes that can’t afford a pot to piss in.
The EU would NOT allow Egypt to control their OIL supply. It would be Egypt’s several dozen F-16′s against Hundreds of Typhoons, Rafales, and a few Eurofighters. Once the F-16′s were shot down, the Tornado GR4s would turn those pretty MBT’S INTO SCRAP METAL.
“Israel responds to continued provocation by attacking Iran, what is the likelihood that CBW”
Zero. If terrorists had access to WMD, they would have already used it. The best thing about Nukes is they have long shelf lives. 10- to 20 years, depending on design factors and how good your chemists are. Mustard gas stores the longest of the chemical weapons. The shelf life of things like Sarin and VX is measured in months. The Sarin transferred from Iraq in ’03 has long been inert. By the time any Syrian chemical weapons make it to the black market and change hands, it will not be potent.
Liberals use WMD like your nanny used the boogie man. Something to keep you from crawling under the bed when they were coming to spank you.
You are supposed to tremble in fear and believe the fookin liberals when they start wetting their panties about WMD. Instead, you should laugh and offer to suck it up with a straw.
You have nothing to fear but fear itself.
I still do not think Israel has the capability of attacking Iran in a way that would do real damage to Iran’s military capabilities for any substantial length of time. Only USAF/USN has that kind of fire power.
If the US would join Israel to make an attack, I think it has sufficient causes belli. But, there is no way that President Hussein would launch an attack on a Muslim nation. That being the case. Israel must adopt another course, and the US must help.
The US must build an airbase in the Negev, with a couple of armored brigades as guards, and a large contingent of missile defense and advanced radars, and it must also use Haifa as a home port for a squadron of Aegis ships. The base in the Negev would provide tangible evidence of the commitment of the United States to Israel’s security, and Israel’s position under the US’ nuclear umbrella, just as bases in Western Europe did during the Cold War. The armored brigades on the base would deter the Egyptians from adventurism, although it is clear that the Brotherhood ruled country will have enormous problems just feeding itself, and will not have the resources to do anything.
2. Israel should instal advanced anti-missile radars on Mt. Hermon. Make it clear that an Iranian nuclear weapon is the absolute end of any idea of returning the Golan to Syria. There is a price to pay, and Syria will have to pay it on behalf of its protector.
3. Israel must embark on a major civil defense program, to equip every residence and commercial building in Israel with underground shelters with 2 weeks of food and water. A nuclear attack is a devastating thing to absorb, but most of the people who will die in one, will die from radiation and fires that are the secondary effects of the blast. Most of those deaths can be prevented. Further, the Iranians are not so capable that they can be sure of hitting the center of their targets. An Iranian missile aimed at Tel Aviv has a decent chance of blowing up in the sea, but the clouds of radioactive steam that it would create could be deadly, but not to a protected population.
The Swiss created such a system during the Cold War: “La Place de la Concorde Suisse” by John McPhee:
– http://www.amazon.com/Place-Concorde-Suisse-John-McPhee/dp/0374519323/
Israel’s military is based on the Swiss example. Israel’s civil defense, should be based on the Swiss example also.
It would have the additional effect of blunting missile attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah.
4. Israel must make it clear to Iran and the Palestinians, that the Palestinians are hostages for Iran’s good behavior. An attack on Israel will lead to the expulsion of all Palestinians from the land between the Jordan River and The Mediterranean Sea. And that Mosque, it has been mortgaged.
5. The Keystone Pipeline must be approved immediately, ans all restrictions on oil drilling in coastal waters of the US must be permanently removed. The foreign policy of the US cannot be dictated by shell collectors.
Israel must defend itself, by itself.
No American troops in Israel.
That we be the death of israeli independance.
Not going to happen.
The opposite is needed. Israel must move out from vassal status to an unreliable patron.
A successful independant Israeli action would signal the shift into israel’s status as more than just a regional power.
Much better, thanks.
Walter,
There is a volume of thought that went into your post, as there is as well in Goldman’s insightful article.
Can you actuallly see Obama basing an air force wing in Negeev? It would take months to establish a base. Although I can certainly see the strategic signifigance of establishing a base as a trip wire shield, the long term consequences could be disasterous for the US. It is far easier to add a carrier to the gulf fleet, and far less diplomatically toxic to do it.
One thing is certain, Goldman has his finger on the dynamics that are driving the calculations in Israel. The alliance between Morsi and the Iranians is proof that US policy under the “piano legged wench” has been a complete disaster. Assad only needed a hard shove to go into the ash bin and Obumbles had a chance to attrit the Iranian mullahs badly in 2009 and couldn’t stomach the thought. He is the opposite of intelligent.
Instead, his “spring” has assembled an additional threat to Israel and created a new Axis alliance of evil.
Israel is going to have to act. It is going to be interesting to see how they play their cards.
It just goes to show how clueless Odumdum and his Sec of State actually are.
Weak argument. Apply the same logic to American defense and you’d be a liberal. Don’t stand for your allies = don’t stand for yourself.
Walter,
I have heard that solution proposed before. It would make Israel somewhat analagous to South Korea – American trooops are there basically as a political tripwire against the nuclear wackos of North Korea.
The only problem is that the Iranians are far more crazy and filled with hate. They have no problems with their people dying by the tens of millions if it means exterminating the Jews, and some GIs with it.
The mullahs making those plans have deep bunkers underground, and while they will happily make martyrs of 70+ million Iranians, they will not be among them.
None of the comments above mentioned Israel’s Nuclear Weapons.
Israel must make it clear that it’s not hamstrung any longer
by US and will use them if the need arises.It must increase
production and find innovative ways of hiding and protecting.
The submarines should only be one of the ways.
Any assault from Gaza or Lebanon must be met with a devastating reply,
even if that means huge civilian population casualties.
The Arab world must be made to understand that Armageddon may
well be their future.
litvac120
I think it depends on the intelligence, just like in the bombing of the Iraq and Syrian nuclear facilities. If the intelligence comes back and says they are this close, and no one else is doing anything, then I think Israel will act. It may just slow them down, but that buys time. The question has been if hitting Iraq drives them into another war with Lebanon since Hezbollah might want to respond. The difference between this Lebanon war and the former is that last time they tried to limit attacks to Hezbollah; this time all of Lebanon will hit, their entire infrastructure will be destroyed. You got to do what you got to do.
Israel needs to immediately respond to any Egyptian provocation by reoccupying the Sinai. Any further provocation by Morsi should result in the closing of the Suez canal.
The humiliation of the islamist and international pressure to reopen the canal should take care of the rest. However, Israel should not withdraw from the Sinai until a new. less irrational Egyptian government is in place, stable, and reparations are paid for the inevitable loss of life precipitated by their moronic actions. Of course one should expect such behavior from the medieval mindset that only responds to the boot on the neck. Sad really.
Please. The next time Sinai is taken, it must be forever. Actions have consequences.
Why must the game board always be reset when the cheaters and haters lose?
We have a saying here, ” Those that talk don’t know and those that know don’t talk. ”
We will do what we have to do when we have to do it.
MBY Yerushalayim
Just don’t wait too long as you may not get a second chance.
I trust our leadership to make the right choice and more importantly I trust The Almighty.
‘We will do what we have to do when we have to do it.’
After the poodle Netanyahu and the lap dog Barak get their green light from their pimp in Washington ?
Secular rule in Israel has failed miserably as the god of Netanyahu and Barak,America, has turned into a millstone around Israel’s neck.
Old Shimon ‘shimmy’ Peres that foreign agent is paying Obama the destroyer for that freedom medal he got last month.
At 89, Peres sees himself as the “irresponsible adult who brought so much suffering to Israel with his cursed and failed Oslo debacle” and he feels he should continue to bring more pain and suffering to Israel before he checks out ,you have to remember that he’s got to pay for that medal that he got from the destroyer Obama in Washington,and we all know whose interests he serves, Gelber surmised.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/did-shimon-we-cant-go-it-alone-on-iran-peres-shatter-the-precedents-of-presidents/
Most politicians stink. No one takes Peres seriously any more. Barak is the classic case of great soldier/lousy politician. Netanyahu has done an outstanding job both at home and abroad.
Israel is an island of stability and freedom in a neighborhood filled with dictatorships and religious oppression.
And, not to be overlooked,we may be the only country in the area where Dempsey can land his plane safely.
10-4, good buddy.
“Severe economic distress benefits the Muslim Brotherhood. I wrote in the Asia Times April 11 under the headline “Muslim Brotherhood Chooses Chaos,” that the Brotherhood would use shortages of food and fuel to consolidate its power in the street:”
It occurred to me that the current administration under Obama is also hoping to “consolidate power” by “severe economic distress”; after all, the MB in the WH and the MB in Egypt are one and the same. Obama has bad advisers; MB advisers who’s influence seems obvious to me. I’m not holding my breath regarding Obama, but I know that Yahweh is merciful and kind and that he will give Obama every opportunity to wholeheartedly embrace His Israel. Obama’s “waterloo” is closer than he thinks; I hope and pray that he “blesses” Israel so that he himself (and the U.S.A.) will receive blessing.
My great fear is that Israel has already waited too long for a strike against Iran’s nuclear-development facilities alone.
The ayatollahs don’t have a perfect grip on Iran, but an assault from outside would more likely strengthen than weaken them…unless it were to remove them as well. Iran has 75 million subjects to Israel’s 8 million, and political, military, and economic allies all around it; a protracted war would not be in Israel’s favor. However, a regime-decapitation expedition would be far more complex than a counterforce strike. It might require more “boots on the ground” than Israel could safely commit to the enterprise.
I hope Israel’s planners and analysts have the best available information, and that their decisions are both accurate and timely. A big mistake, even in fully justified self-defense, could be the end of their nation.
The Iranian underground nuclear facilities are probably more vulnerable than anybody will admit.
They all have entrances: Bomb and collapse the mountains over the entrances and go back and do it again when they get close to digging out. No boots on ground required.
Destroy their ability to generate electricity and plunge the entire country into darkness. They can’t do anything without electricity-no nation can.Once again, no boots on ground required.
So they’re getting around the sanctions?- destroy their oil export terminals.
In short order what’s left of their economy goes south really fast. Again no boots.
Worried about collateral damages to so called “innocent civilians”. Well none of them are innocent. They all hate with equal fervor and as far as I’m concerned they’re all equally guilty, just not wearing uniforms is all.
This is a “street fight” writ large. If you get into one and manage to knock your opponent down by whatever means-if you want to live you never let him get up off the ground, period!
If Israel can attack Iranian nuclear facilities with air raids one day, she might also attack other Iranian assets the next days, you’re right. Such repeated raids could become costly in terms of downed fighter aircrafts, but the Israeli leadership may order them nonetheless if they believe the stakes to be high enough. The issue for such follow-on raids, as well for the very first ones in fact, is that Iran too may strike economic assets in Israel so as to collapse her economy.
From the moral point of view Iranian leaders would probably be ready. Your sentences that “none of (enemy civilians) are innocent” and that “they’re all equally guilty, just not wearing uniforms is all” they would probably approve.
More important, they seem to have the ability to attack enough critical economic assets to collapse e.g. Israeli power generation. Israel has only 4 major electricity stations. Iranian leadership would use their significant arsenal of precise indigenously-produced medium range ballistic missiles, armed with HE warheads or with submunitions, striking from Iranian territory in too large numbers for the “Arrow” Israeli antimissile system to cope.
More details in my post #46 here (third point) http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/02/17/logistics-of-an-israeli-strike-on-iran-an-informed-view-from-germany/
and in post #5 and follow-ups here
http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/08/13/middle-east-chaos-makes-israeli-iran-strike-more-likely/#comments
Arnold,
Tactically and logistically I think boots will need to be on the ground.
IDF special forces will likely provide real time intelligence near targeted facilities. They will likely laser designate the targets for precise accuracy. Israel has a limited number of GBU deep penetration bombs, accuracy will count. They will probably attempt to disrupt anti aircraft capability, as well. I would expect that they will also be present for rescue efforts if pilots are shot down.
In the event the IDF attempts to decapitate their opponent they will need special forces for that direct action mission.
My bet is there will have to be boots on the ground. It will enhance the likelyhood of success.
1) Israel carries through an attack on Iran’s nuclear resources.
2) Iran responds through proxies but also closes Strait of Hormuz.
3) US Navy and Iran commence military operations in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman
4) Enough US casualties and loses occur to draw a larger US response with political cover similar to Gulf of Tonkin.
5) Obama becomes a war president quite possibly with full red, white and blue MSM support.
6) It would be betting the pot, timing would be critical. The effect might resemble the 2007 financial collapse and the ongoing 2007 elections, but there was no incumbent at that time.
My observation is that politicians are risk adverse. They seldom make big bets when they can exert leverage in small increments.
You assume we are willing to limit targets and restrict the use of our own available weaponry.
One doesn’t bring a knife to a gunfight nor does one have to resort to conventional weapons when threatened with nuclear attacks. The Iranians have made the biggest mistake of all- their threats are completely unambiguous.
No one can doubt they will use a nuclear device on Israel if they get one. Therefore Israel has every legal and moral right to attack Iran with nuclear weapons.
If I were Prime Minister I would order an attack an Iranian nuke site and then demand an immediate surrender. If not forthcoming I would use a nuclear weapon on Teheran. There would be every moral and legal right to do so.
A war is fought without restrictions unless you are the United States that values it’s soldiers less than favourable optics. My sympathy goes out to Israel in having an ally as fickle, uncommitted and unreliable as the United States. An ally that freely sacrifices it’s own to please a world that laughs in it’s face. Shame on a once great Country.
Israel, melt your enemies into the sand while you have the chance, next week the world will be more concerned about the next iphone.
Nope. President Jarrett (D-Iran) diddles. Maybe the Brits act.
“President Jarrett (D-Iran)” … nice
Viator…Your words sound rooted in wisdom, Sir
It comes down to the Saudis. How scared are they of the Shia Iranians? Will they give the Israelis overflight permission to enable the success of ta strike against Iran? Will they keep the operational secrecy (from Obama)?
I doubt the Saudis are the decisive factor. As Hans Ruehl observed here:
http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/02/17/logistics-of-an-israeli-strike-on-iran-an-informed-view-from-germany/
taking out protected facilities requires placing a second or third bunker-buster directly into the crater left by the first or second ones. Smart bombs have that capacity in theory, but the operational challenges to this kind of precision are daunting.
Ultimately, we must assume one of two things:
1 – the Israeli’s do not believe they really have the capacity to inflict substantial damage on the Iranian nuclear program.
or
2 – the Israeli’s believe they have such capacity.
If 1 is true, than everything we here out of Israel is merely a feint attempting to influence the world to increase sanctions or act in other ways. If 2 is true, than they logically would be ready to attack once the risk / reward profile became most positive.
At this point, it is hard to believe in option 1. That would mean the Israeli’s are bluffing. There is too much going on and the government is in too much turmoil for this to be merely an elaborate show. Israeli government is not disciplined enough to keep such a policy secret either. It seems clear that they believe they have at least some capability here. If so, the only question regarding Israeli intentions regards how they view the risk / reward calculations of a strike. This has even gone far enough for the government to seek support within the influential Sephardic Rabbinate. That implies a political contest to rally support for an imminent action. Believing that they will fail in their attempt does not enter into that equation. Of the potential negatives of a strike, pretty much all of them are realized as soon as a strike is attempted, regardless of its success or failure, so it would seem that we should be preparing for those negatives, or doing our best to change the risk / reward calculus of the Israeli government so that they do not attempt one. Debating how successful a strike might be seems to be beside the point.
What is left to discuss about this is the after effects. Assuming they don’t really have the abilities that they think they have, what would be the medium and long term effect of an Israeli strike that does NOT succeed? Those are questions worth discussing. Hopefully the answers prove not to be necessary, but we should be planning for them just in case. Just don’t expect our doubts to have any effect on the Israeli’s willingness to proceed.
I think the picture from publicly available information is too foggy to get a reasonably trustful idea of the feasability of successful Israeli-only attacks against Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
On the one hand, the picture by Hand Rühl which David Goldman pointed at is guardedly optimistic.
On the other hand, Russian electronic intelligence assets in Syria and Iranian Russian-produced “Tor M1″ air defense systems could create enough further problems to tip the balance in favour of Iranian defense. See the two first points in comment 46 here: http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/02/17/logistics-of-an-israeli-strike-on-iran-an-informed-view-from-germany/
Then of course, Israelis might have prepared tactical surprises to negate Tor M1 or Russian assets.
As Menachem Ben Yakov wrote, those that talk don’t know and those that know don’t talk…
I agree that the picture is unclear and that we can’t really know what they will be able to accomplish. My point was that what we do or don’t know does not matter at this point. What matters is what Israel is or is not going to do, which is dependent on how they see things, not on how we can or can’t see them.
We can form an opinion of what the Israeli’s think, based on their current actions, independent of our ability or lack thereof to determine their potential success or failure. It looks increasingly likely that Israel is going to attack Iran. It is time to stop debating about the likelihood of them doing so based on their ability to be successful, since that does not seem to be something they are worrying about with regard to their decision.
To the extent that we suspect they may fail, we can make preparations based on our beliefs about their capabilities, but we can’t at this point, believe they will hold off simply because our assessment is that they will not succeed.
You’re right of course. The Israeli leadership will make this call, and they alone. Like I said before, I’m convinced they are merely bluffing, but then I might be wrong. So preparing for the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran is a good idea anyway.
On a practical matter, what should those preparations be? Depends on where one is living:
- If in Israel, then you want to prepare for an economic disaster, such as would result from destruction of power stations, or less extreme strikes like on harbours and airports. Depending on personal wealth and patriotism, you might choose to emigrate during a few years until prosperity is restored or to tough it out and remain part of the team. If the latter, organize yourself in anticipation of severe hardships during months / years
- If in Iran, do much of the same, except wealth and already existing restrictions make for a much bleaker picture. Consider temporary emigration if you have a chance at it
- If elsewhere, then you need to prepare in anticipation of energy crisis if the war spills over to the Gulf (not a certainty, but definitly a risk). Organize in anticipation of large increases in fuel price, at worst issues in fuel availability, combined with recession the world over
Note that none of these preparations should be new
Google “peak oil” if you don’t understand why…
Mr. Goldman,
The issue seems to be the danger to the region, and Israel in particular, of Iran possessing a small number of nuclear devices. This presumably frees Iran to pursue its frequently stated promise to annihilate Israel without threat of retaliation. Were I an Israeli politician/soldier I might fleetingly consider the implications of detonating a modest nuclear device on a reasonably isolated facility in Iran.
Your thoughts, sir.
Best,
Roy
I think there is only one option that will work. The Iranians have been working for years to build their facilities to be attack resistant. That option is a four letter word, figuratively and realistically.
Mr. Goldman,
Firstly, compliments on “How Civilizations Die” which I purchased and read last month. It explains so much about the present and what is to come.
Second, compliments for your work and analysis as Spengler. It is pieces like this one that educate us about our probable future.
It looks like Israel is just about out of options regarding the existential threat from Iran. The Iranians have little to lose, given that their society is in the process of atrophy and their leaders have suicidal tendencies, at least that is what they apparently believe. They are exceedingly dangerous, as you point out in “How Civilizations Die”. Sanctions have proven to be what sanctions usually are, worthless.
It is going to be an interesting fall. Our President and his hapless Sec of State have done much to set the table for the events that are about to unfold. They have strengthened Israel’s foes with their misguided notions about democracy and its application to the Muslims who inhabit the middle east. I trust the Israeli’s are better informed and more grounded in reality.
Nominee Romney would do well to point out what the past four years have produced in terms of an enhanced threat in the Arab world. It isn’t just the economy that counts.
The Obama administration in its divine wisdom will probably assist
Israel if it attacks Iran and at the same time keep giving Egypt
the couple of billion a year, the object being to stay friends
with everyone. The compliant media will rave over this foreign
policy masterpiece. Hillary will take the customary bows.
A unilateral Israeli air strike, without American (or covertly Russian) approval, on Iranian targets that have not been clearly identified/verified as nuclear “weapons” production facilities, will have the most dire of consequences for region, and beyond. The first thing the Iranians will do is leave the NPT. That guarantees that Iran will eventually be armed with nuclear weapons, five, ten years down the line. This is not the case today. Secondly Iran will retaliate, if not immediately, when circumstances permit it. Third, it will solidify support for theocracy and add yet another episode to the regime’s narrative of external meddling in Iranian affairs. I won’t even begin to touch upon what the Russian reaction would be.
Israel’s policy should be to look towards securing and improving the situation on her immediate borders and working for favorable political outcomes in her neighboring States.
Decisive strategic strikes (if it comes to that) on hypothetical nuclear weapons facilities is (properly) the domain of superpowers. They and only they can deal with the consequences of such a decision. If Iran violates the NPT, my assessment is that both the USA and Russia, possibly China as well will come down on them.
President Peres and General Dempsey are correct in their assessments. They should be listened to.
The Israeli government could choose to neglect probable consequences internal to Iran (such as support for current regime) and to prepare for future continuation strikes years later if Iran is making progress towards nuclear weaponry.
On the other hand, what is difficult to neglect is the possibility of very destructive Iranian retaliation, aiming at critical economic assets so as to inflict catastrophic damage on Israeli economy. Such as e.g. taking out power plants which take years to rebuild.
It all comes down to whether the Israeli leadership really believes that the Iranian leadership would be ready to suffer losing maybe half its population (Israeli nuclear arsenal numbers in the hundreds and may include fusion devices), resulting obviously in replacement of Iranian regime, if for that price they can strike Israeli cities with several fission devices.
- If Israeli leaders believe that, when push comes to shove they will choose to attack, even if the price is an economic catastrophe at home costing hundreds of billions in lost revenue and thousands of lives (economic catastrophes result in drops of living standards with attendant health issues, look up Greece now or Argentina ten years ago to get an idea). That kind of price is a bargain to avoid destruction of the centers of several cities with attendant hundreds of thousands if not million of fatalities
- If Israeli leaders do not believe that, but are merely pretending, they won’t attack. Choosing an economic catastrophe if you got an alternative would be bonkers
Jgets,
I think you are making assumptions about Israeli military capabilities that underestimate their ability to seriously damage Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel has the neccessary air assets for a strike and can probably handle a multiple sortie mission, if neccessary. Israel is a world leader in drone capability and innovation. You can bet drones will be part of a strike. Additionally, Israel has some of the very best special forces on the planet. They have had years to game this out and prepare.
Israel also possesses a very robust nuclear capability and I would not be at all surprised if they don’t also have a tactical component to it. In an existential threat situation I would not be surprised if it were deployed to ensure the destruction of known facilities.
You can also be quite certain that Israel has vastly superior intelligence to what is speculated upon in public.
I would expect a 1967 premptive style effort that would seek to neutralize multiple threats posed by Iran and its proxie forces in Syria, Lebanon, the West bank, and now, Egypt. Israel is not going to enter into an operation related to its continued existence without full preparation to minimize the blows that will come from the proxies. The proxies can’t land effective punches if their land is swept from underneath them and they are running for cover.
If this operation goes forward Beirut and south, the West Bank and the Sinai may be ground which Israeli forces occupy as a preventative measure and to draw out opponents so they can be destroyed in detail. It will be quite an operation and it may be temporarily destabilizing.
Pity Obumbler and his dopey Secretary of State couldn’t read the tea leaves a bit more cogently in 2009 when the Mullahs stole the election. Couple their inaction that with the inevitabilities associated with the Arab “Spring” and you get the accumulating threat Israel is faced with now. The fact that the MSM thinks these two clowns are worthy foreign policy players is a tribute to their collective ideological blindness, lack of curiosity and feeble understanding of strategic doctrine.
Israels existence is threatened. Their reaction to that threat is foretold if one has the ability to put aside biases and analyze the macro picture. At some point, Israel is going to react and take the initiative. When they do rest assured it will be swift, robust, and very violent.
The NPT is no longer relevent. Iran has been openly dismissing any kind of significant control or inspection for decades. You are living a fantasy if you think that matters anymore.
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/2012/prn201216.html
Oh sure Israel should secure its “existing borders” as if nothing has happened. Part of the probem now is ongoing resource devoted to every border with Sinai now hot and Egypt…Syria, now spilling over to Jordon, Saudis, Gulf States, Lebanon…can we add more? Sure we can; Turkey, Cyprus, Russia, and the gas fields in the Med. Do not forget the Palestinians.
So where is the “existing border” of Israel to be drawn by Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood, et al? Then we can all sit down and have a nice coffee.
If Israel decides to defend itself, there must be no lack of determination in the strike. This is the real war and no “half-war” (like the last in Lebanon) will do.
In the proper order, the mullahs must find themselves without airports, missiles, surface to air defenses, air force, navy, oil fields, gas, pipe lines, communications, internet, refinery(ies), water, electricity. Then the destruction of the nuclear sites will proceed. Any significant base of the revolutionary guard must disappear too. The same must be true for any front: the plan must include destructive force for Gaza, Lebanon, the Sinai, the Syrian border and any terrorist attack.
And of course there must be a reserve force at all times.
And the mad mullahs must disappear from history.
If the whole strategic equilibrium of the whole Middle-East will not be subverted by the strike, it is better not to strike now.
Sherab Zangpo,
You said:
“In the proper order, the mullahs must find themselves without airports, missiles, surface to air defenses, air force, navy, oil fields, gas, pipe lines, communications, internet, refinery(ies), water, electricity. Then the destruction of the nuclear sites will proceed. Any significant base of the revolutionary guard must disappear too. The same must be true for any front: the plan must include destructive force for Gaza, Lebanon, the Sinai, the Syrian border and any terrorist attack.
And of course there must be a reserve force at all times.”
The logical consequence of this assertion is that Israel “must” have a military about as large as the United States.
Of course I accept your objection.
But…
But the key was in the clause “in the proper order”.
It is the same in any fighting: if I have to face a 300 pounds enemy, but I cut his tendons… the fight has more chances to end good for me…
I still think bombing Iran would be counterproductive. There is no guarantee that Israel will destroy all of the Iranian targets, especially with only one wave of bombings, and an Israeli attack on Iran really will set the Middle East, and possibly the world, on fire. The attack would also send oil prices skyrocketing and inflation could go through the roof. So if what you want to do is eliminate the Iranian nuclear program, just trying to bomb them may not work. At least not totally.
Our best bet would be to continue massiver covert operations against the Iranians. Do Stuxnet on steroids. Try and destabilize the Iranian government as much as possible, which means giving opposition groups in Iran the money, weapons, training, and supplies they would need to overthrow the mullahs. Do a full-court press with everything we and the Israelis have in terms of covert operations and black ops to destabilize the regime in Iran and, if we get lucky, we could stir up an uprising like the one Obama refused to support in 2009. We could probably overthrow the mullahs without having to bomb anybody AND you would have the added benefit of the Iranian people doing the heavy lifting of overthrowing the government.
Bombing has enormous risks attached to it. It should only be used if literally every other option has failed. As far as I can see, we have NOT exhuasted all of our covert operations options. Outright war could be a disaster for the world. But if Iran can enable Hezbollah to take over Lebanon, why can’t we encourage angry Iranians to overthrow their own government?
Libertyship46,
You seem to assume that Israeli (and US) efforts to hinder Iranian progress through cover means have been half-hearted. You propose the same “on steroids”. But what makes you think that these efforts are not already to the max?
Answering your last question: “But if Iran can enable Hezbollah to take over Lebanon, why can’t we encourage angry Iranians to overthrow their own government?”
Well that’s because Lebanon was struck during 15 years by a sectarian civil war killing up to 5% of population, meaning Lebanese Shias had much less loyalty towards the Lebanese State than towards Shias at large, of whom the largest and most powerful component is Iran. Hezbollah arose and gained its power from these circumstances.
By contrast, Iran has not undergone any significant civil war recently. What separatist and other sectarian organizations exist there are feeble and weakly motivated. And it’s not in Israel’s nor in US power to create a powerful and highly motivated separatist organization where there is none.
Alexis:
I can tell that we are not using our fullest resources in terms of black ops because, if we had, there would be much more evidence of both sabotage and civil unrest than we’re seeing today. We would be seeing many more attacks on Iranian oil pipelines or oil terminals, more assasinations of Iranian scientists and possibly Revolutionary Guards leaders, and many more public demostrations in the streets.
You also said, “What separatist and other sectarian organizations exist there are feeble and weakly motivated.” That certainly was not the case in 2009, when Iran was nearly overthrown by riots in the streets. Had we had a president with some backbone and vision, he would have thrown his full support into these demonstrations and overthrown the Iranian government. Remember, many people were imprisoned and executed after these riots, and Iranians (like all Middle Easterners) have very long memories and hold grudges for generations. You have a well-motivated base of people who hate the current government and, with the Iranian economy near collapse, not much incentive here for people to support the current regime. All they need is help from the right clandestine services who know how to stir up civil unrest to topple a government. The CIA used to be experts at this before Congress decided to take the “moral high ground” when it came to regime change and stopped them from doing what they do best, which was overthrow countries hostile to the United States. Time to enable the Iranian people to support a government they want rather than the one the mullahs want for them. It’s at least worth a try.
Liberty,
Obumbler was presented with that exact “toppling” scenario in the spring of 2009 and twiddled his thumbs. Add that and the Arab “spring” together and you get the current state of affairs.
If black ops would accomplish the goal it is obvious they would be tried in advance of a military strike. Stuxnet was used and slowed things down, but didn’t end the threat. Now some very dim members of the executive branch think that sanctions are going to work.
No, when you “Neville Chamberlain” your foriegn policy and don’t take out the threat in 1938, or 2009 as is our present case, you get the inevitable. Obama ignored the fact the the Iranians have been killing Americans for years. He thought he could reason with them. It’s sad how stupid this guy really is.
My bet is that Israel is going to have to act with decisive military force. Had we been a more effective actor when we were presented with the chance, we all might not be engaging in this conversation right now.
Just wait America, wait until you experience the consequences of not drilling in your own lands and using your own resources to be independent. Wait until you learn the consequences of a romantic application of foreign policy based upon fancy.
Elections have consequences.
Seems we all live in a dream world.
Firstly, if you are right too soon you are wrong. The time is simply not right to do what is necessary. There certainly is not the will nor the immediacy to act in an appropriate degree.
Secondly, the center of gravity is the mullahs corrupt and vicious all. The key is to get them out of the way. The nucs are just a side show.
Thirdly the talk of a general conflagation
There are no good options left. I think the window of opportunity has already closed.
Yup.
A bankrupt America cannot afford another war, explaining our logical foreign policy. Israel is armed with 100′s of nukes (much of it from nuclear materials stolen from the U.S. – read up on NUMEC), and no one is going to attack it except in retaliation. I might point out that Nuremberg declared that aggressive war is a crime against humanity. Perhaps Sheldon Adelson would be willing to pay the tab for U.S. military operations against Iran, and then stand in the docket at Nuremberg? Some say an attack would be to force the Rothschild banking system on Iran. We need to be concerned with freeing ourselves from the banking criminals who are looting America. Perhaps Sharia no-interest banking is the ticket. Fractional reserve usury banking based on debt is a Ponzi scheme, which is about to take down the world economy. Obama is just another globalist puppet, like Bush II (who was relegated to reading “My Pet Goat” while Cheney and his neo-con gangsters pulled off 9-11). See any Wall Street bankers prosecuted? Madoff was allowed to plead guilty and locked up, without serious investigation, to silence him and avoid exposing the money trail. Corzine walks after stealing customer funds (which will probably fund Obama’s campaign). When the U.S. can no longer provision it’s overseas military, Israel will be alone and surrounded by those it has taught to hate it. Delusions of grandeur, of an Eretz Israel that never existed, will lead to destruction. The young men of the IDF are already poisoned with the DU weapons they have used on their neighbors. An attack on Iran might galvanize Islam to unity, as opposed to 1500 years of sectarian Shia-Sunni slaughter. The globalist stooges running Saudi Arabia, with a substantial Shia population, might find themselves exiled to Tel Aviv.
I just read several histories of the U.S. and Japanese navies in WWII. Hubris was a disease that afflicted both, resulting in disasters for each such as in the naval battles off Guadalcanal. If I lived in a nation only twice the size of L.A. County, I would treat the subject of a war of aggression a little more seriously. If America collapses from a war too many, Israel will evaporate with the morning dew.
A parting thought: the national treasures spent on war could have long ago bought peace in the Mideast. But then, financing war is the most profitable of business, as Rothschild learned financing the Hessians who fought Washington at Trenton (he stole the money for their winter uniforms, giving Washington a victory). And no, I am not a pacifist. I was once attacked in a parking lot, and one of the two aggressors made the obits. But I was taught by my father, a warrior who could kill with his arms, that avoiding conflict is always the best recourse. You never know when your victim is your master, and your hubris will be your destruction.
“I just read several histories of the U.S. and Japanese navies in WWII”
I suggest that you try reading the history of European diplomacy in the 1930s … but first, lay off those Ron Paul/Alex Jones comic books.
http://debka.com/article/22293/Iranian-leaders-in-Israel’s-sights-after-calling-for-its-destruction
Israel will not attack because it can’t attack. Its hilarious to see all this war mongering and fear mongering from the right wing when in reality everyone knows that the little satan won’t do a thing without the big satan’s orders.
Its time for Israel to stand alone. all the years of weapons, money, support, UN vetoes and international backing…its time for Israel to leave the nest.
If you want to attack? go ahead and see what happens…I get the feeling alot of jews will be moving back to the States from Tel Aviv.
If Israel goes, I can assure you that she is taking most of the world down with her. And she will have every right to.
My biggest concern is that Assad’s chemical weapons are in Hezbollah’s hands and are launched against Israel. With gas chambers being created on Israeli soil by those rockets, Israel then is forced to use nuclear weapons, and likely the entire world economy collapses. The retaliation would almost certainly be against the entire Arab/Persian world and its oil fields.
Now, if it comes to that, I believe it is Israel’s duty to obliterate these Islamofascists, but make no mistake, the world will fall into a depression worse than the 1930s.
Just curious about a report (likely very “rumorous” and speculative) I saw this morning and wondered if anyone had any more knowledge. Is Israel actually considering an immenent non-conventonal strike on Iran in the form of an EMP blast? I know the Israelis are justifiably feeling very threatened, but does anybody see any wisdom in such an attack?
Not sure about an EMP blast. But rumor has it that right before Israel struck the Syrian nuclear sites, cell phones went dead in Syria and Lebanon.
IMHO, the assumption that an Israeli airstrike must produce immediately obvious decisive results is incorrect. As the insightful Israeli strategist, IAF Lt. Col (res.) Ron Tira, points out, an Israeli airstrike can cause a dramatic re-assessment of all sides of the credibility of use of force threats and thereby shift the correlation of forces to one which will prevent the current Iranian regime from acquiring nuclear weapons capability (http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1903
ROger Cohen is Irans representative to the New York Times. Even during the Green Revolution, he was a fervent supporter of Iran. His goal is for Israel to get nuked by Iran so he can hold the moral high ground at the expense of other Jews.
Israel, strike at the head of the snake. A suitable bomb at mullah-central could take out the leaders. I am betting on a first strike during Friday prayers. Go with God.
Don’t forget that it isn’t necessary to destroy the underground installations in Iran. Simply destroy their entrances/exits.
Israel has no choice but to attack now…Obama cares as much about the Jews( ie Israel) as his friends and mentors: Rashid Khalidi, Rev Wright and Frank Marshall Davis(…by the way let’s not forget how Frank Marshall Davis card carrying Communist friend Paul Robeson remained silent while Stalin was executing hundreds of his Jewish “friends”)….Oh yes…Israel has to attack now …or sooner!
First use of nuclear weapons by Israel would be a frightful thing. The argument in favor is that if Israel’s enemies have nuclear weapons they will use them against Israel without caring about world opinion or diplomatic consequences (only fear of massive retaliation would dissuade them, and perhaps not even that). In that sense Israel has less to lose than might appear. The arguments against are
1) Israel would suffer horrendous diplomatic isolation and be declared a rogue state by most of the world, and
2) the apocalyptic despair of its enemies would be heightened, leading them to more desperate risk-taking.
I am not Israeli and I will not tell them what to do; I can only analyze the publicly available data. But it seems obvious that the use of nuclear weapons is a measure that should be avoided in all but the most extreme of circumstances.
“… the use of nuclear weapons is a measure that should be avoided in all but the most extreme of circumstances.”
The United States is still criticized for using nuclear bombs in WW2, even though it was estimated that a ground invasion of Japan would’ve cost about a half-million American lives.
So many Purple Hearts were minted in anticipation of invading Japan, that they are still in use today.
I would guess that that opinion is shared by Israeli leadership and that is why every available option is being explored and an attack postponed until the last second. However, under the circumstances Israel will have no choice. A conventional attack followed by the offering of ” unconditional surrender ” to Iran is the way to go. If that opportunity is rebuffed than their would be no other choice.
Rather than throw the region into ” risk taking ” I think it would calm the waters. Our Arab enemies have known we have nuclear capabilities and have become comfortable with the fact that we are responsible enough to handle them. In fact it is Iran with a nuke they worry about , not Israeli nukes.Removing the Iranian threat would obviate the need for nuclear development in a dozen counties.
“First use of nuclear weapons by Israel would be a frightful thing” … Agreed, and, IMHO, probably unnecessary.
Given that the US is apparently unwilling to act given the current correlation of forces, I’d say it is up to Israel “shuffle the cards” through a package of actions, including military force.
As IAF Lt. Col Tira urges, “Challenge the Iran equilibrium (http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1903)”!
P.S. I don’t mean to keep quoting Tira but he seems to me to be the best analyst of contemporary military activity at the strategic-operational level.
Awkward mistake by DLG: “China is hosting a summit of the Non-Aligned Movement at which Iran will assume the organization’s three-year rotating chairmanship. Egyptian President Morsi will visit Tehran on Aug. 25 on his way back from the summit.”
Actually, the summit is in Tehran itself, hosted by Iran and attended by 30 heads of state and the UN Secretary. Nobody seems to have point out what a depraved display this will be, with all these countries effectively endorsing through their participation Iran’s incitement to genocide (and stolen elections, its global terrorism and assorted other evil deeds).
PS: “by DPG”, meant.
I believe you are wrong about Iran and helping to bring about real catastrophy.
The islamic republic is awful of course. Everybody knows it; so do lots of Iranians themselves. But it is probably better than the regime of many other (sunni)muslim countries.
This regime is also divided and even if they had nuclear weapons (which they won’t have for many years to come)they would not use them against Israel.
Iran is certainly not the worst and most dangerous enemy of Israel. Iranians hate the arabs a lot more than they do Jews.
Real question is why the system wants to brainwash us into believing the opposite.
“Iranians hate the arabs a lot more than they do Jews.”
Wrong BBC breath. Of course, you wouldn’t know how wrong you are because your own media is so ridiculously biased in favor of Arabs.