Middle East Chaos Makes Israeli Iran Strike More Likely
Qatar is something of a wild card: it is ruled by an emir without even the checks and balances that arise from having a large family behind a monarchy, as in Saudi Arabia. The whimsical emir just bought the Italian firm of Valentino as a gift for his fashion-conscious second wife–not a dress, but the entire company. His support evidently emboldened the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to take on the military in the aftermath of the Sinai crisis. But that makes stability in Egypt less rather than more likely, because it gives the Saudis, the only funder capable of bailing out Egypt, reason to stand aside.
Here’s an extract from the transcript of the roundtable at the Gatestone Institute:
David Goldman: Returning to Egypt: Reuters says that Morsi consulted with the generals before forcing Tantawi’s retirement. But the Xinhua report suggests a constitutional shift. Any first responses?
Pepe Escobar: Constitutional shift. And once again; right after the visit by the Emir of Qatar. I bet a bottle of Margaux that some suggestions were made.
David Goldman: Regarding Pepe’s Qatar angle: Bloomberg News reports, “Egypt scrapped a sale of nine-month Treasury bills today, its first cancellation of a debt offering in more than three months, after Qatar agreed to deposit funds with the country’s central bank to boost foreign exchange reserves.” That’s pretty big: the Egyptians are saying we’ve got Qatar, we can suspend public funding.
David Samuels: Ehud Barak’s remaining standing in Israel seems to rest on being able to play the US card. But the American interlocutors I’ve talked to think he’s a weirdo. So Amos, do Israelis believe that Ehud Barak is a reliable interlocutor who is conveying an accurate sense of American intentions, and vice versa?
Amos Harel: David S., everybody finds him baffling. And still, compared to Avigdor Lieberman, he’s considered to be close to the Americans, whatever that means now.
David Samuels: Right now, the timing for an Israeli strike on Iran — which I thought of up until a few months ago as pure hot air — seems as favorable as it is ever likely to be. The Iranian bloc in Syria and Lebanon is coming apart at the seams. The Syrian Army is in tatters. Hezbollah is in a very weak place. Obama — who Netanyahu seems to see as a strategic enemy on a par with Iran– is at a weak point, the weakest he is likely to be in the next five years, presuming he is re-elected. Morsi isn’t dumb enough to order the Egyptian Army out of their barracks no matter what happens in any back and forth with Hamas in Gaza. Plus, the Gulfies are pushing for a strike, and they own Gaza AND Egypt now.
David Goldman: After the anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstration at the soldiers’ funeral this week, my prior was that the SCAF was the aggressor against Morsi. It may have been entirely the reverse. Morsi might have set up the Sinai incident and the protests at the funeral were a defensive response by the military (ultimately futile). That raises the questions: What are the Saudis thinking? Are they coordinating with the Qataris? Have they cut a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood? A related question is: Is Iran involved?
So a theme that bears investigation is Iran positioning for a post-Israeli strike response.
Pepe: The Saudis are not coordinating with Qataris at all; they are betting on different horses. Iran is not involved in anything in Egypt so far –apart from dragging Morsi or an underling to talks in Tehran during NAM.
David S.: Don’t you people agree that this feels like a uniquely fluid moment?
Amos Harel: David S, to continue with your line of thought: remember the date of “Cast Lead” — December 27, 2008, which fell in between Obama’s victory and inauguration. But as we were told when we were young IDF soldiers: “Every Saturday has a Saturday night”. Translation: Keep in mind there’s a price to pay later, for actions committed while you felt yourself untouchable (in the army, our commanders are not allowed to punish us during the weekend).
Pepe: I’m getting stuff from Tehran around the fact people care extremely worried about the concentration of power in Khamenei’s hands. He decides EVERYTHING — including the response in case of an attack.
Rotem Sella: It definitely seems that the confidence of Muslim Brothers is increasing, the fear of a coup is even less than it was a few days ago.
David S.: The moment things stabilize, they will stabilize in favor of Iran and against Israel. Right now, the Iranians are in trouble. And any major retaliation risks their remaining assets. Iran is weak, and everything they have from their nuclear program to their allies in the region is at risk right now is a way that may not be true a month from now, or two months from now.
Amos Harel: Keep in mind that everybody speaks of the autumn. Why not earlier? (I’m just theorizing here)
David G.: The threat is low everywhere except Egypt. Granting Pepe’s point that Iran’s direct reach into Egypt is de minimus, Qatar’s intervention to undermine SCAF definitely helps Iran — it removes an obstacle to attacks on Israel.
David S.: But if you imagine that the Salafists or the MB will control Egypt in the medium future, then this is the moment of least threat to Egypt from that direction, unless you imagine SCAF can regain solid control of the country under a new Mubarak.
David G.: David S., I agree with you: Tantawi’s departure is one more grain of sand on the scale on the side of an early strike.
David S.: If the MB is strong enough to cut Tantawi’s head off this morning, then SCAF isn’t going to be running Egypt tomorrow.
David, You and the round table forgot to mention that Israel is in this mess because they religiously follow America’s failed agenda.
I guess you experts just let that one slip ?
According to the report, Washington would provide Israel with a glow in the dark dog collar and a tight leash against the anticipated retaliation by Tehran and its proxies — notably Hezbollah — in the event of a strike.
We have been quite successful in duping the Jews with our false peace agenda and have successfully come to the rescue of Hezbollah in 2006 and Hamas in 2009 as our tight leash keeps Israel well restrained.
Our primary agenda is to save Arab face and keep those dirty Jews from ever defeating another Arab army ever again.
Why do you think we armed and trained the Egyptian army with out latest and best armaments.
‘You can trust us to betray our friends……every time’, the spokesman said.
the best line of ‘The Call’ this morning was “…the eastern province of Greater Kurdistan, the future autonomous national home of the Jewish people? …”
Here is a recent commentary from my blog on the issue – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/08/13/the-iranian-explosive-gets-closer-closer-less-than-weeks-away/
Yes, it is only a matter of a few short weeks.
If I didn’t know better(?), I’d say US foreign policy is formulated in Riyadh.
Try these hypotheticals on for size.
The Saudis are forcing Israel to take out Iranian pre-nukes because the Israelis are uptight about the Shia axis and Iran is nervous about losing Syria. Thus, we have an ever increasing cycle of threats. They (KSA) are accomplishing this by forcing everyone’s hand (West included) in Syria. So, Jerusalem gets even more nervous, ergo, “we have to strike”.
The Saudis, secure in the fact that their greatest regional rival(Iran) will be taken out by the “Little Satan”, quietly set things up,(using their Qatari underlings), for a confrontation between the MB boys in Egypt, (which also happen to be one of the KSA monarchy’s great threats), and Israel. Forcing the “Little Satan” to eventually whack them too.
As if that wasn’t enough, they have got things set up in Syria so that once the Turks, (their last major regional rival), fall into the trap and intervene (Syria), they(Turks) will get sandbagged by the Kurds in Turkey Proper. Three birds(Shia Iran, Neo-Ottoman Turkey, MB Egypt) with one stone (Syria).
Of course the above is just a rough scenario.
Hypothetical end result? A regionally dominant Riyadh with all KSA’s main rivals weakened, quarreling and blaming each other..
There is also the very useful by-product of maintaining a hostile Egypt(with a discredited MB) against Israel.
It’s amazing what recycling petrodollars buys you these days.
Good point, jgets. In case the USA and Israel bust the Shia axis, the Saudis will ripe the apple. But actually they are the in the first row of the whole theater and should thus pay correspondingly for the ticket. This means they should at least cover the open flanks (like Egypt) of Israel, if not even participate with own troops.
The Israelis will strike Iran only if the KSA will give them overflight premission and help hide the attack from the Americans. Israel will not trust Obama not to leak details of the raid to the Iranians.I’m not sure that the KSA can do this.
Qatar is quite the spoiler. I did not hear of any Shia/Sunni unrest there as in the other gulf states. Is that because there are no Shia there or that Qatar paid off the Iranians?
Did you have some relatives in the senior establishment of the UK circa 1938 (http://ww2db.com/person_bio.php?person_id=234)? They were so perceptive to realize that the great and pressing threat was from the USSR. Of course that quaint little guy with the funny mustache was distracting, but they could “do business” with him.
IMHO, the biggest potential threat from KSA is that they’ll monopolize the world’s supply of Moldovan hookers and expensive scotch.
Also, concerning the posture of KSA to Egyptian MB, see our host’s latest: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3278/saudi-newspaper-warns-muslim-brotherhood.
Journalists [bless 'em] are merely working up ideas evolving from the partially-informed confines of their fraternity. They’re very, very good with words and ideas, no more…no less.
All of the various Israeli Governments however, polar opposites, are working with deadly daily realistic facts.
Journalists’ conjectures are good exercises, but isn’t it more realistic to see what actually happens…..rather than mull over chin-in-hand, partially informed conjecture?
We won’t know until observable results of Cabinet decisions happen in real time.
Regarding David S’ comment that “Right now, the Iranians are in trouble. And any major retaliation risks their remaining assets. Iran is weak, and everything they have from their nuclear program to their allies in the region is at risk right now is a way that may not be true a month from now, or two months from now”:
In case her nuclear sites would be struck by Israel, Iran’s most major and most secure means of reprisal is her ballistic missiles. Availability of that means of reprisal is not affected one way nor the other by events in Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, nor any other nearby country.
Iran’s significant arsenal (few hundreds) of locally-produced and precise (error probable on the order of 100 meters) ballistic missiles with High-Explosive warheads is THE major factor when discussing how Iran may retaliate.
For example, how many electricity stations does Israel have?
> Answer: 2 major coal-fired + 2 major gas-fired, the rest are small facilities
How much time to build them back, in case they were destroyed?
> Answer: Years
How does one run an advanced economy without electricity?
> Answer: That’s impossible
Destruction of these 4 power stations in Israel may be the most destructive way Iran could respond to Israeli attack.
Of course, Iran could retaliate at a lower level, if they were worried about possible Israeli nuclear reprisal in answer to destruction of Israeli economy: Air Force bases, nuclear station at Dimona, Navy base e.g. could be targets destructive enough to wound Israel, while not “over the top” to avoid the nuclear risk.
Israeli leaders are of course aware of ballistic reprisal possibilities. Talks about Israeli strike against Iranian suspected nuclear assets are but a bluff. Only the USA have got the practical ability to attack these purported assets without paying it with an arm and a leg.
Fear of Iranian missle has driven Israeli anti missile tech since the Iran/Iraq war of the cities. I think that the Israelis would not be as forthright with regard to their intentions, unless they wre confident in the Arrow, iron dome, popeye and other weapons designed with this threat in mind.
Mike of Mass,
Among the weapon systems you cited:
- Popeye is a cruise missile, not relevant to protection against ballistic missiles
- Iron Dome is a defensive system against short-range ballistic missiles, with Hizbullah rockets in mind. It has no capacity against medium range ballistics
- Arrow is the only system relevant to defense against ballistic missiles
About Arrow:
- 2 batteries are operational, status of a third projected one is unclear
- Each battery may include 24 to 48 interceptors, and its main radar can guide 30 simultaneous interceptions
Bottom line is that even in the most favourable case if all interceptions succeeded (irrealistic), and if 3 batteries are operational each with maximum number of interceptors, a ***theoretical*** maximum of 144 incoming missiles could be dealt with, 90 of them simultaneously. Given Iranian arsenal estimated more than 300 medium range ballistics (possibly more), the Arrow system can anyway be saturated by Iran.
This even without taking into account:
- realistic failure rate of interceptors
- possibility that Arrow is less efficient against real missiles, whose characteristics (such as evasive action) are not known in advance
- vulnerability of the Arrow system’s radar (Green Pine), e.g. to Special Forces action
Coordinating 200 or 300 simultaneous launches of Shahab-3s doesn’t look unfeasible at all, provided the pattern of targets is known in advance (fixed targets, such as power stations, radars, harbours, Dimona center, etc.)
If the US attacked Iran’s nuclear capacity, rather than Israel, does anyone believe that there would be any less retaliation against Israel?
In this case, of course there would be less Iranian attack against Israel, if any.
Iranian tally of ballistic missiles, extensive as it is, is not unlimited. If Teheran exerts reprisal against US military bases and Gulf oil infrastructures, it will have many less missiles left to attack Israel.
It may even renounce any attack given the “entry price” for successful attack: because of the Arrow antimissile system, a few dozens of missiles would probably be mostly stopped. Many dozens or over a hundred would be needed to effect extensive damage, and Iran will probably not have enough left after reprisal against US bases and oil infrastructures.
OK Alexis,
Let’s reverse your war plan. How about if the Israeli Air Force first takes out the Iranian electricity grid control center, then bombs the nuclear facilities. While they are turning out the lights in Iran (especially one place in Iran – Tehran) they can also take out the phone system and some of the computer networks. One would assume that they have that capability in their cyberwarfare unit.
Thus, the Iranians might be so discombobulated from loss of their communication capabilities and electricity that they would never get a retaliatory strike off. Meanwhile, as the eloquent Yitzhak Shamir used to say, “something will happen.” Who knows what types of sabotage will happen on the ground with special forces, helped along by cooperative Azeris, Kurds, Baluchis and other tribal malcontents?
This is why the chaotic mess in Syria IS instructive. The Assad (or more accurately Alawite) military was supposed to be one of the stronger ones in the Middle East, running a very efficient police state for 40 years. They are being fought to a draw by a collection of ragtag militias barely being supplied with much more than light weaponry. This is due to the fog of war, disruption of all sorts of supply lines and other utilities, defection of Sunni conscripts, etc. These things were never dreamed up by our armchair analysts who only a few months ago called the Syrian army a formidable fighting force. Really? Not by the results on the ground. Ditto for Iran.
Ellen – All very good points.
According to CRS, ethnic Persians comprise only 51% of the Iranian population. Also, the 2009 unrest in Tehran indicates that the mullahs are not too popular among many of that 51%.
Do not discount the fact that the Iranians/muslims are freaking barbarians. Stupid-low brow-and incompetent. I would be surprized if half their missils could even be launched. Like Saddaam, they bluff. The only operational missiles could be the ones they launched for show over the gulf.
Do not discount the fact that their troops will also defect quickly-just like Saddaam’s.
Isreal justhas tofight like it is a war!! Bomb the h*ll out of them for a month if possible-no limited strike. Take out all of their cell towers, power plants, and radar sites.
Ellens,
I recommend taking into account the views of Uzi Rubin, the “father” of the Israeli Arrow antimissile system. Refer to http://original.antiwar.com/porter/2012/03/29/israel-shields-public-from-risks-of-war-with-iran/
Extract:
”
But Uzi Rubin, who was in charge of Israel’s missile defence from 1991 to 1999 and presided over the development of the Arrow anti- missile system, has a much more sombre view of Iran’s capabilities.
The “bad news” for Israel, Rubin told IPS in an interview, is that the primary factor affecting Iran’s capability to retaliate is the rapidly declining cost of increased precision in ballistic missiles. Within a very short time, Iran has already improved the accuracy of its missiles from a few kilometers from the target to just a few meters, according to Rubin.
That improvement would give Iran the ability to hit key Israeli economic infrastructure and administrative targets, he said. “I’m asking my military friends how they feel about waging war without electricity,” said Rubin.
The consequences of Iranian missile strikes on administrative targets could be even more serious, Rubin believes. “If the civilian government collapses,” he said, “the military will find it difficult to wage a war.”
Rubin is even worried that, if the accuracy of Iranian missiles improves further, which he believes is “bound to happen,” Iran will be able to carry out pinpoint attacks on Israel’s air bases, which are concentrated in just a few places.
“
I used to think Pepe Escobar was an anti-semite. But quite honestly that is too narrow a brush. The guy is a nihilist, and at the top of the list of every nihilist is a hatred of Jews and Israel. And like all anti-semetic nihilists they WORSHIP at the trough of the self hating Jews like Chomsky etc.
David, i know u dont think of him as an anti-semite but he is. And from the MANY people I know all over the world, i can tell u the guy has Rock Star status amongst all the anti-semites of the world. And believe me, he panders to his audience and tosses the anti-semetic red meat out to them and they devour it.
Escobar is just a clever scumbag, making a living out of nihilism. Next time u see him can u ask him a single question for me? He is sooo preoccupied with the murderous Israelis stealing property from the poor Palestinains. Please ask him if we can count on his support in returning the stolen Jewish property in Arab nations to its rightful owners. Also, tell him to FOAD!
It may have been entirely the reverse. Morsi might have set up the Sinai incident
Heh, just what a group of us here thought a likely possibility.
Pure “taquiya” in the physical sense creating shahids for one section while conning the opposition/enemy.
Israel is going to bomb Iran? We’ve been hearing that for the past three years.
No choice, Israel is in a corner, Iran is out of control, Obama will do nothing,
nuclear mullahs will be the end of the world, and on, and on, and on.
So if it’s that bad, bomb ‘em already, and quit yakking about it.
Martin Owens,
I share your reaction. Indeed the Israeli bluff is becoming less and less believable as times goes by.
I recommend http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/04/israeli-experts-mum-on-iran-attack-to-support-bibis-bluff/
Extract:
”
Retired Brig. Gen. Uzi Rubin, the former head of Israel’s missile defence programme, recalls being on a television programme a few months ago with Ari Shavit, senior correspondent at Haaretz, on which Shavit declared, “Netanyahu is playing poker for all of us. We shouldn’t call out his cards.”
Shavit was suggesting that the success of the prime minister in the high stakes poker game requires that influential Israelis not question his claims about Israel’s willingness and capability to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.
That struck a Rubin as a significant factor in the politics surrounding Netanyahu’s policy. “People who think we shouldn’t attack Iran believe Netanyahu is playing poker,” said Rubin in an interview with IPS. “So they think they shouldn’t speak up.”
“Netanyahu speaks like he’s very convinced Iran has to be stopped by force,” said the former missile defence chief. “Does he mean it?” Rubin said he doesn’t know the answer.
Alpher agrees. He told IPS the reason high-profile expressions of dissent by Dagan and a few others have not provoked more lively debate on Iran policy among national security figures is that “they don’t want to spoil Bibi’s successful bluster.”
”
This is but a bluff. Successful until now.
Why bluff? The Iranians won’t back down, whatever Israel says. Is the “bluff” supposed to force the Americans to act first? Makes no sense to me.
- One reason for the bluff could be enticing America to do it in place of Israel: “If it’s going to be done no matter what, better that we do it right with our large bombing capabilities instead of Israel with its fairly limited ones”
See http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NH17Ak03.html
”
An interview given by a “senior official in Jerusalem” to Ynet News on Wednesday Israeli time makes the first explicit linkage between the unilateral Israeli option and the objective of securing the agreement of President Barack Obama to the Israeli position that Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapons “capability”.
In the Ynet News interview, the unnamed official is reported as explicitly offering a deal to the Obama administration: if Obama were to “toughen its stance” with regard to the Iranian nuclear program, Israel “may rule out a unilateral attack”.
”
- A lesser objective could be to press America and other countries to yet again stiffen economic warfare measures against Iran
When Israeli forces attacked nuclear research sites in the past (Iraq 1981, Syria 2008), these were “out of the blue” attacks with no warning sign whatsoever.
The Israeli pattern of behaviour as far as Iran nuclear program is concerned is very different.
It’s like a heavy brain fog.Everyone is ignoring the hard fact that Russia has promised numerous times not to sit this one out like they did with Libya,Iraq and Afghanistan.
There has to be a reason why all the experts and pundits ignore or are so forgetful about the Russia,China,Iran,Hugo,Cuba,North Korea,etc. axis ?
OOPS,duh, we plum forgot about Putin and the SCC gang.
If production or shipping of oil from the Gulf were to be disrupted either as part of an ongoing political upheaval or as the result of some military action, the value of Russia’s energy resources would be enormously increased. Redirecting some of the river of petrodollars that currently flow into Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Gulf nations into Russia would go a long way to helping Russia regain the position in the world that Putin believes is it is entitled to.
In this sense Russia’s interests and the interests of KSA are completely at odds.
Yep. And therein lies the whole root of the Israel-Russia repproachment most PJMers dare not see, lest it undermine their determination that Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia…or Eastasia.
David, I love this, in my opinion you are the most reliable source of accurate information on these things. It may be my ignorance, I have a very hard time finding information comparable to this piece and the comments on it. Thank you very much. I wonder what effect a strike on Iran would have on the situation in Syria? I would hope that it would simply stir it up, hate to see it unite those people against the “satans”, not that they need a lot of incentive. Why are “our” politicians so uninformed, is it willful ignorance? I seem to have more knowledge than they do, its pathetic.
Alexis
Israel will strike first. The Iranians will only react afterwards. If Israel explodes an EMP over Iran as part of several simultaneous rocket strikes Iran’s economy will be instantly ruined and its ability to strike back will be almost crippled. An EMP will stop all unhardened equipment dead in its tracks. All cars, trucks, planes, water wells, communications equipment, computers, electric transformers and everything else that operates using electricity will be broken. The strike could use a conventional nuke on Qom to get rid of the theocrats and the Guards. Fordow could be hit with a one-two punch consisting of a neutron bomb to kill everybody in the bunker and a powerful dirty bomb that might crush the bunker, but definitely render the site radioactively unapproachable for a millennium. Food will run out in a matter of weeks and there will be no way to transport it or anything else. Israel would be in a position to demand unconditional surrender by threatening to nuke the ports preventing the world from undertaking food rescue. You can’t feed 80 million people by off loading food into rowboats. The smaller nuclear facilities can be taken out with small nukes and a small nuke could scatter all their enriched uranium over several hundred square kilometers. They would have to start all over again. There is nothing intrinsically immoral about using nuclear weapons when your survival is threatened, although there is tremendous pressure not to be the first user. Once you use one you might as well use as many as necessary. The world will be angry when the first goes off, ten more won’t increase the anger very much. If the world won’t love Israel then it needs to fear it. There’s a reason people leave rattlesnakes alone.
. . . with your plan.
Israel will never get ‘recognition’ from the genocidal savages calling themselves ‘palestinian’.
is Israel’s existence, not the genocidal savages’ “recognition”
nuke the genocidal savages, that’s how to recognize THEM
But witnessing Israeli determination to ‘ghost’ a mortal enemy might serve as a salutary lesson, nicht wahr? Which way do the prevailing winds blow in Gaza and the West Bank?
The only times in the last 1300+ years that dar al islam have played nice with dar al harb have been when they ruled all they surveyed, or were thoroughly cowed. Allowing them to rule all they survey is a non-starter, p’raps it’s time to remind them of plan B?
Nobody really knows what an EMP weapon will actually do in real life. In all likelihood, it isn’t anywhere near as destructive as some claim it is.
Carry on…
Faboutlaws,
Isreal unquestionably has the ability to strike Iran with nuclear weapons. If the intent is to slaughter as many Iranians as possible, nuclear strikes could be devised to kill many millions of them.
Some of the details of your proposed genocide plans are unworkable, such as:
- EMP nuclear strike would ruin Iran’s economy, but would probably not stop a reprisal, since critical military hardware is generally built to survive EMP
- Nuclear strike on Qom may not result in less radical views among Shia Muslims elsewhere: would a strike on Jerusalem deliver less radical Jews worldwide, or more furious ones? Would a nuclear strike on Rome convince Catholics to be more friendly towards other religions, or less?
- Regarding Fordow, it is to be noted that neutron bombs do NOT kill people protected by thick layers of soil
- Finally, nuking Iran’s harbours would probably prevent imports to Iran by sea, but in your plan of isolating Iran so as to genocide its population, you forgot Russia which could supply Iran from the North. Except if you’re also proposing Israeli nuclear strikes on FSU territory, that is…
That being said, the general point remains: Israel COULD kill millions in Iran.
It’s just that the Israeli leadership is not criminally insane and won’t follow your sensible advices.
A ‘neutron’ bomb of kilo/megatonnage “X” kills just as many folk protected by ‘thick layers of soil’ as a non-neutron bomb of same capacity. With additional casualty-causing effect due to enhanced radiation effects. The goal was to possibly reduce the combat effectiveness of targeted Warsaw Pact forces over a protracted time (radiation doesn’t kill instantly, for the most part) while possibly not reducing Dresden, again, to quite so much rubble. In other words, the post war Marshall Plan might not cost so much this time round. I’mna thinking no one is going to care about the Persians, thorn in the side of Western Civ that they’ve been for millenia.
Alexis, I like many of your points but one is incorrect. After the fall of the Soviet Union we learned from documents and testimony that they had developed EMP nukes that cannot be protected against (in any practical sense). I’m reasonably sure if the Soviets accomplished that a couple of decades ago, other countries, the US and Israel to name two, have done the same since; if not at that time as well.
ChiefEOD,
You said:
“After the fall of the Soviet Union we learned from documents and testimony that they had developed EMP nukes that cannot be protected against (in any practical sense)”
I find it surprising that protection against some EMP flashes would be practically impossible. Faraday cages create constraints, but they are nothing new.
Do you have a link with details about these “no-protection EMP nukes”?
Thanks,
Alexis
Alexis. I believe you are overestimating the power of a ‘few hundred’ HE warheads. At best they are 500kg units, more likely much smaller. (Remember, nukes are small and light weight weapons). With a CEP of 100 meters, that means that 1/2 fall OUTSIDE the 100 meter ring. Air and Naval bases, especially Air bases, are mostly large empty parking lots. Aircraft are/ will be spread out, at least 100 meters apart, prior to any raid.
Any nation, and especially Israel, knows the physics of conventional weapons.
And, all of this assumes no electronic defense or anti-missile activity.
Could there be hits? Absolutely. Worth the risk? Most probably.
ta
Cluster bomb units and runway denial munitions for the airfields. I suspect even commando units going in ahead of the strike package to take down ground installations, AAA, radar and other vital ground targets. I’m just speculating. The IDF is small, but they have a lot of, I believe the term is, “force-multipliers” on their side.
Michael,
Single warheads are most useful for relatively hard targets, such as high-value industrial sites (power stations, Dimona nuclear research center…), administrative centers, fixed radars.
For spread-out soft targets such as air bases, cluster warheads are advisable. Iran is reported to have such.
Depending on precision performance, it might be possible, or not, to target individual bunkers protecting military aircraft. That is the most demanding mission, since it involves pinpoint few meters precision for a single warhead.
Alexis,
You sound like a broken record. What do you suggest Israelis do: sit and wait till Iranian fanatics pass a small nuclear device to Hezbollah or Hamas and smuggle it into Israels property? Then what? survives – if there will be any hit the airwaves and claim that Iran did it??? There are 6 million Jewish people in Israel, and about a million of ungrateful, good for nothing Palestinian Arabs. We already know that mu-slims don’t give a DAMN about their brothers and sisters in Israel. But no way Israel can delegate it’s survival to ANYONE but Israel itself.
Your comments remind me of an old Jewish joke, from the time of German death camps, when one group advocated an escape plan and the other argued, that if caught, it can be worth.
I would say, that there are no “light wait” professionals in Israeli army. Their political leadership is also well attuned to al sources of information. They will make the best decision for Israel.
Skydiver,
Sorry if you don’t like the facts that I recall. Not all facts are loveable. They stand nonetheless, and are ignored only at risk.
The bottom line to these unpleasant facts is that Iran will not be deprived of its “nuclear weaponization option” by anything less than full scale war by the USA (improbable, no matter who is in the White House) or nuclear bombing by Israel (won’t happen: as I said to Faboutlaws, the Israeli leadership is not criminally insane)
Iran is not the only country having such an option: Japan, Germany, Sweden, Brazil… It’s the only country that has both that option, and a leadership claiming eternal enmity to Israel.
Israel is well protected by its independent nuclear deterrent giving it ability to kill up to several tens of millions Iranians. If (that’s an IF) Iran in the future uses its nuclear weaponization option, her relationship with Israel will be mutual deterrence: similar to India/Pakistan, India/China, America/Russia, etc.
Everybody is entitled to not liking that outcome. But if (IF) Iran exercizes its option, that outcome will just be the only game in town.
As to what would happen if, say Russian nihilists took hold of a nuclear device and detonated it in the USA, or if Pakistanese AlQaedists did the same against India… you know the answer to that question. That answer is the reason why Russia, Pakistan and everybody else NEVER lost control of any device.
Same question regarding loss of control by Iran over one of its (future) devices… same answer. Same reason why it won’t happen.
Alexis,
You did not read my comment, apparently. It is not the Iranian Nuclear program Israel is worked-up about. And it’s not the fact that “future loss of control over the device”. It’s willing participation of Iranian regime with it’s surrogates, namely, Hezbola and Hamas and some others death worshipers. It’s very hard on international arena, defend penalization of Iranian proper for something “others” did. I’m sorry if you not understanding that MAD concept is not working here. One side abides by the rules and the other does not. Never worked that way. Read the history.
Regards.
Skydiver,
I fully read and answered your post. Obviously, when speaking of “Russian nihilists” or “Pakistanese AlQaedists”, I was referring to surrogates of Russia (resp. Pakistan) as well as to a real incident of device loss of control. Nobody would believe a State claiming to have lost control of a nuclear device… What would ensue I will express fully: extensive nuclear retaliation against the perpetrator State.
The concern of difficulty to “defend penalization of Iranian proper for something “others” did” is entirely misplaced. If an Iranian nuclear weapon exploded on Israeli (resp. US / French / Russian / etc.) territory, the stricken State would extert reprisal without needing to “defend” nor justify that option in front of whoever, except its own public opinion, which might not be so difficult!
Mutual Assured Destruction does not exactly apply in the “Iranian nuclear terrorism in Israel” scenario that’s true, but not for the reason you think: given that Iran could not build more than fission bombs, an act of Iranian nuclear terrorism however destructive would not mean the end of the State of Israel. While Israel with hundred(s?) of warheads, probably including fusion devices, would have the option to terminate the State of Iran.
It’s precisely the lesson of history that this kind of threat stops in its tracks even the most deadly dictators. Or do you think Stalin and Mao were more “good guys” than Ahmadinejad and Khamenei
?
I’ve never said anything about loving the fact that Iran cannot realistically be deprived of its “nuclearization option”, by the way (personally, I don’t like it). It’s just that a fact has to be recognized for what it is, and dealt with. In this case, the solution is clear, simple and time-honored: good old nuclear deterrence.
Best regards.
They weren’t born to walk on water
They weren’t born to sack and slaughter
But on their soul, they weren’t born
To stoop and knuckle under
They can again learn to steal some thunder
They can again learn to work some wonder
And when the gauntlet’s down,
It’s time to rise and climb the sky
And soon the moon will smoulder
And the winds will drive
Yes, Israel grows older but it’s soul remains alive
All those tremulous stars still glitter
They will survive
Let their hearts grow colder and as bitter as a falcon in the dive
There was a dream, a dying ember
There was a dream, they may not yet remember
But they will resurrect that dream
Though rivers stream and hills grow steeper
For in the Middle East where life gets cheaper
Oh, here in this Hell the blood runs deeper
And when the final duel is near
They will lift their spear and fly
Piercing into the sky and higher
And the strong will thrive
Yes, the weak will cower while the fittest will survive
If they wait for the darkest hour
Till they spring alive
Then with claws of molten fire, they will devour like a falcon in the dive!
Nice poem.
OK? I read this extract from the transcript of the roundtable at the Gatestone Institute 3 times?
I get the feeling even with all the information, none of you were able to make any meaningful conclusions…..
Laurie,
The meaningful conclusions are two: Israel WILL bomb Iran, along with a lot of other nonbomb-like operations, including cyberwarfare. The most significant hits will be the nonbomb operations, like shutting down their computer networks with another stuxnet virus.
Secondly, Iran will not come out with a military or strategic victory. It may end up looking more like Syria.
What is questionable to me is whether the attack on Iran will finally dislodge the demented regime that runs that country. Sadly, it may not.
But, then again, there’s always another day for round two. As Scarlett O’Hara used to say, “I’ll think about that, tomorrow.”
Obviously – and justly – Israel must do what it has to do when it has to. I am fearful that in striking before the election, it gives Obama a boost in the polls (if he intercedes on Israel’s behalf). On the flip side, if Israel strikes after the election and Obama loses (please G-d) then he’ll obviously not lift a finger to help Israel, perhaps (G-d forbid) even if he wins.
This thing is really scaring the crap out of me, on every level. Some insights anyone?
Israeli news outlets are also full of speculation related to Obama vs. Romney and a strike. True, it’s a factor but the ultimate factor is existential – will Israeli leaders (Netanyahu or another) choose to defend the survival of the nation against such a genocidal threat, and given Jewish history – or will they just cave and let the Third Temple fall.
So, the concern and consideration regarding Obama is real, but it does not show adequate respect for the very determined mindset that, ultimately, all Israeli security types posses (or most all of them).
If Netanyahu decides it is ’round midnight’ and the US/Obama will not act or support us…
Spengler seems believe that the Saudis are unified.
i believe that two factions contest, and that the anti-Western faction is dominant.
Just as Mullah Omar’s Taliban is a puppet of the Pakistani ISI- they pretend to fight and we pay them both-
I feel that the MB is actually a deniable puppet of the anti-Western Saudis. Obama is in cahoots with that faction.
End result: Anti-West, anti-capitalists remain in control of both our banks and the world’s oil markets.
ok, so I know Morsi fired some high ups in the military, but who controls the triggers to the guns.? Has the Egyptian Military pledged their allegiance to MB?
Why did the Egpytian military cave in to the MB? It may be that they were met with a Morsi ultimatum: give in or face bloody civil war. The generals being more attached to humane values than the rabid MB, they caved. I know that is a strange thing to write given the military’s past abuses – but civil war is several orders of magnitude greater than routine torture of suspects, etc. The MB want to dismantle the institutions that Gamal Nassar set in place after the last successful Egyptian revolution and replace them with MB institutions. So they are willing to destroy Egypt in order to remake it. This cowed the generals. They would rather go into a peaceful fade-away, than an apocalyptic battle. Nassar’s era is completely over with Morsi’s weekend decision.
Qatar cannot have endeared KSA to it with this recent action. Right now the KSA seems off-balance: First, Prince Bandar’s assassination goes unconfirmed, but also unchallenged – did it happen or not? Second, the Arab League’s ministers meeting on Syria was postponed because of a minor operation on Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal – is Syria that small of a concern that a minor operation nixes the only meeting called for the Arab League concerning it? This meeting was called as an emergency meeting after all. Third, Qatar undercuts the Saudi policy toward Egypt. Things don’t seem to be going well for the Kingdom. What will come of this conflict of interests in Egypt remains to be seen. But if the KSA allows the MB to establish itself in both Egypt and Syria it is signing its own death warrant. It has to act as a counter force soon or lose the game.
Israel will never go nuclear first. They won’t because the Jewish state has Jewish ideals and will not use those kind of indiscriminate weapons. When they do attack, it will not be anything less than definitive. They cannot risk an ineffective attack.
“If I didn’t know better(?), I’d say US foreign policy is formulated in Riyadh”
This seems to escape the talking heads attention either by design or default. Saudi Arabian interests have been playing both sides of world affairs long before USA existed as a Nation, they will continue playing long after.
Why President Nixon (with wilful ignorants sitting by and watched him do so) installed the Saudi Linked petro-dollar system in 1971 is beyond reasonable examination, advantage to Saudi Arabia in every measure.
There is no way out of this for the USA, we have hitched our star to Saudi Arabia and will once again send our soldiers to leave their lives and limbs on Middle Eastern deserts no matter which way this falls. If Israel attacks we will defend any fallout against Saudi Arabia. If Iran Attacks we will defend Saudi Interests, if Russia or China get involved we will be all in.
If we cross Saudi Political and Economic interests, the disruption to Petro Dollar system will eviscerate US economy overnight and result in U.S. economic collapse.
Maybe this is why the rest of the world is quickly moving away from US dollar to settle international trade contracts..they already see inevitable outcome and example set by USA of Choosing partners poorly.
How refreshing to read a “comment outside the box”.
correction:
If we cross Saudi Political and Economic interests, the disruption to Petro Dollar system will eviscerate Chinese owned and subsidized US economy overnight and result in U.S. economic collapse.
Why worry about a Russian EMP when you have Russian Akita class killer subs patrolling around in the Gulf of Mexico for a month without being detected ?
http://freebeacon.com/silent-running/
Being an Occam’s Razor believer, did the military brass just do a “take the money and run” act here?
Anticipating reprisal, might Israel not whack Iran’s entire military to mitigate the iranian response? If they could substantially take out the essential command and control, who would organize a counter attack?
Throughout the OT we see God commanding His people to totally destroy their enemies-”kill each and every one”. Saul lost his kingdom for failing to do so.
And Israel has been fighting with Hamites for 3500 years because of failure to obey those commands. Even now, 20% of israelis are arabs- so the problem will never go away.
Have I been banned or is the cookie monster eating my posts?
“Israel will not trust Obama not to leak details of the raid to the Iranians.”
NO need to. Radar signatures are unique. The F-16I has a different signature then other models of the F-16. Now the F-15′s are not as different as the Israeli F-16′s but a good operator will know they are F-15′s and they are not from the KSA. The KSA has F-15′s but have different radars, which give a different return. No, Iran will know exactly who bombed them. As will the gulf States and KSA. Both have radars that can pick up IAF aircraft taking off and following them all the way to their target.
It is a high risk, high return mission for the IAF. For the USAF, it’s a milk run. The IAF F-16′s can only carry 1,000 lbs (2-500 lb JDAM’s) of bombs on that long a mission. The B-2 can carry 80,000 (40 2,000lb JDAM’s) lbs anywhere in the world. On a SEAD profile the B-2 carries 48 AARM’s. I doubt that Iran has 48 Sam Batteries. That means the B2 can kill the Iranian SAM’s before they know they have been engaged. 4 B-2′s can deliver more bombs then the entire IAF.
That is why Israel has been hoping we would do the deed.
Go Manteo GO!
Israel doesn’t care if the detail of the raid leak after the fact. I suspect that they are more worried that Obama will betray the mission thereby setting it up for failure and massive causulties.
Obama needs the press so I wouldn’t put it past him to start something to take the heat off and divert attention from his dismal record as president. What’s a few lives here and there if he can get himself re-elected.
Supposedly, KSA will allow the IAF to fly over it in order to hit Iran. But what if they lied and shoot down the IAF planes?
Mecca and Medina might become glass lined craters as a result of such treachery.
KSA doesn’t have to shoot down IAF planes. It could just warn Iran that Israeli planes were on the way.
Remember, even though Israel was at war w/KSA a few times, it never bombed any oil wells. Iran has threatened KSA that if it gets attacked, its missiles will take out Saudi oil fields. The KSA might not like Iran, but it certainly likes its own oil wells.
There is no need for anybody to bomb Saudi oil wells. Take out the Ras Tanura and Yanbu oil loading terminals and it doesn’t matter whether the oil is pumped out of the ground or not. It will not be loaded onto any ships.
It seems that the leadership of KSA is desperate to maintain stability in order to protect their privileged position. KSA leaders seem to see both Iran and the MB as threats to that stability and also to any KSA pretensions to guide the Muslim world. Given the KSA world view, it is hard to think of any realistic scenario where KSA would do anything but (discreetly) cheer an IAF strike.
Don’t see immediate action at all against Iran.
Israel will wait out Obama; with a different administration will come favorable policy changes and more US support.
Iran is up to its neck in problems already. Better to keep the pot boiling. Declaring much less using a nuke will only make their problems worst and energize it rivals.
Egypt either has a military coup or a degraded military. Either way, it will lose power projection and fade into further weakness.
Two problems:
1. Israel may assess that a second Obama administration will be even less supportive than the first and consequently chose to act during the election cycle when BHO must please the voters.
2. Iran may assess that it is facing a deteriorating situation (growing Sunni threat, tightening sanctions) and decide its best to covertly rush to test a nuclear device early in the hope that this will break up the sanctions regime and provide it with a boast to its regional prestige.
Meanwhile the possibility of a hefty increase in food prices due to drought in the USA and increased demands by the US government for more ethanol from corn is increasing. This will put even more demand on Egypt’s finances. If a war breaks out in the Med and the Gulf you can watch shipping insurance rates shoot through the roof.
You know I get the feeling sometimes David has his own inner Pepe Escobar which just wants to flip the bird to the D.C. foreign policy establishment, but David as a former banker just can’t quite do that. ‘Putin for President’ though was definitely giving the anti-Russia lobby that confuses eternal Cold War with actual U.S. national interests a poke. That two Asia Times contributors who are 180 degrees apart on the wisdom of an Israeli strike on Iran can cooperate gives me some hope.
“NO need to. Radar signatures are unique. The F-16I has a different signature then other models of the F-16. Now the F-15′s are not as different as the Israeli F-16′s but a good operator will know they are F-15′s and they are not from the KSA. The KSA has F-15′s but have different radars, which give a different return. No, Iran will know exactly who bombed them. As will the gulf States and KSA. Both have radars that can pick up IAF aircraft taking off and following them all the way to their target.”
Our dear Stoch there happens to be one country that borders Iran with Soviet-built radars. You may have heard of it. Foreign Policy published an article based on leaks from the Obama Administration complaining that ‘Israel has bought an aircraft carrier, it’s called Azerbaijan’. Of course Israel can tell folks like you for public consumption that the IAF’s F-16s jammed the Russian operated Gabala radar so they didn’t see nothin’ if the blow to the Iranian facilities near Mashad comes from the North. Naturally this will spare yourself and many dedicated Cold Warriors the cognitive dissonance of knowing that ‘U.S. geopolitical enemy no. 1′ was denouncing an Israeli attack on Iran all the way to the bank and turning a blind eye to IAF passing through air space that is basically Russian controlled in Azerbaijan. Just a heads up to spare you that, Spengler already seems to be ready for that possibility, what with the Russian air force flying Israeli drones nowadays.
Oh yes and since it seems to be your refrain nowadays Stoch, ‘free P—y Riot’ too while they’re at it. Perhaps they can go play anti-Mohammed songs in mosques or obscene lyrics denouncing the ultra-Orthodox separating genders at worship in Israel, as Putin suggested the other day. Why apparently smart ‘conservatives’ get sucked in by the most infantile, ludicrous propaganda so long as the apparent target is the Kremlin is beyond me.
Mr. X, the keystone of freedom is the freedom of speech. The message isn’t important. Allowing idiots to say idiotic things is. I don’t agree with Pussy Riot but I think their right to say and do stupid stuff is critical to the future of Russia. That makes it important to America.
If Russia had freedom of speech, they wouldn’t be stuck with Pootie. 138 million Russians and the best you can do is Pootie! I don’t believe it. I spent half my life studying the Soviet Union. Russia. Russians are clever, talented, industrious, serious people.
That doesn’t matter when the tyrant has his boot on your neck.
Russia and America should be allies. Instead, Russia is starting Cold War II.
Sorry Stoch, criminal trespass is criminal trespass (since my earlier reply to you at PJM regarding the latest Soros-bot ‘outrage’ anti-Putin talking points got deleted). Regardless of which country you’re in. And it’s actually 142 million Russians, again. And if you’re going to call Russia a s—h— as you did in another thread, you better compare Moscow to D.C. and New York first. And go on rambling about how a single JDAM dropped on the Roki Tunnel would’ve stopped ‘Pootie Poot’ in his tracks rather than start WWIII over the proxy war launched by a tie-eating Soros protege. Russia didn’t start Cold War Two, your boys Cheney and Brezinski did. In fact for them Cold War One never ended.
I leave Spengler fans with this quote from Stratfor (despite the crony goofy intel ‘analysts’ that they do have on staff who make up ‘secret meetings’ with prosecutor General Yury Chaika, I know David respects their CEO):
http://darussophile.com/2012/08/08/its-a-culture-war-stupid/
“I know David respects their (Stratfor’s) CEO”
From where do you “know” that? Here’s DPG taking down Strafor: http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/25811/mcstrategy
The changing Middle East world and indefinite US position can prevent the resourceful Jewish mind from the finite fatal decision.
I agree with people believing there will not be any Israeli strike, not under the currently know conditions. Israel would be unable to destroy the Iranian nuclear program alone and the political fallout would damage its political and economic interests.
For the people talking about nuclear attacks from Iran or from Hezbollah or smuggling nuclear bombs around, I think it is not so easy and it is not so secure for the bomb builder.
The fundamental thing is Iran need to test an A-Bomb before it try to use them in war. If the test is done, Israel will have a nice warning.
First, the builder must be sure the bomb explode where it was intended to explode and not elsewhere. Just think a bomb to be smuggled in Israel (not an easy task with the wall) exploding in Europe or in the US or somewhere else. it would not be pretty for the source.
Second, Iran would need to give the bomb to Hezbollah (and the leadership of Hezbollah is criminal and insane but never was suicidal). Hezbollah need to move the bomb secretly and securely inside Lebanon. This is tough. Too much risk something go wrong and someone leak something to someone else. And more secure is the movement less secret will be. How many people would know the bomb is on its way to Israel? Tens, hundreds?
It would be much, much worse if the bomb would be delivered by Hamas or some al-Qaida types. Iran could not be sure where it would explode.
Third, in smuggled inside Israel, there is the big chances it will not explode where the damage would be significant; it could be intercepted and explode at the border or in some deserted area. At ground level. This would significantly reduce the power of the blast. Remember Hiroshima and Nagasaki where selected to maximize the damage because the terrain conformation and the blast was timed at a specific altitude. If it boom at ground level, half or more of the energy of the blast will be absorbed by the ground.
Forth, any nuclear blast against Israel would be recognized as an existential threat against any other government and population in the Western World (and many more outside). The US population would, correctly, foresight the next target: themselves. They would clamor to take out Iran quickly, whatever be the cost or the means. The Europeans would, also correctly, think the same.
Bush could justify Iraq invasion with the WMD Saddam had (because he used it against Kurds) even 15 years after the fact. Now they can not justify Iran invasion with WMDs without proof. But, when the proof is out (real or not – be Iran fault or Pakistan fault), the public opinion in the Western World will accept the need to take out the risk (potential or actual it would not matter).
The current economical and political landscape make waiting a possible strategy. Iran and Egypt (hell, all the Middle East) have painted themselves in a corner. Their economies are sclerotic like the USSR before the fall. The fall in oil consumption, the increasing of oil produced in the US and North America, the commodity inflation due to QE, LTRO and like central banks CTRL-P policies, the reduction of food production because of the drought, the bio-ethanol, bio-diesel, etc. production, the Chinese and the Chinese’s pigs are all out-competing the Middle East population out of the food market.
The M.E. regime need to cower people to rule them, but you can cower people only if their belly is full enough. There is no way to keep people under control when they are ravenous for food.
Marc H,
I thought David was respectul of George Friedman in spite of, not because of his bizarre theories about Poland and Japan rising as the great powers of the latter 21st century (Canada and Russia seem more plausible given climate change and petropower, see darussophile.com). What David was rightly lamenting was that despite the exposure of many of its staff as blowhards (I haven’t met them but I’ve been around a couple) and its strategic reports as grossly inferior to the FREE Asia Times in terms of quality and insight, dozens of government agencies and Fortune 500 multinationals apparently are willing to subscribe to this rubbish every year. And now they’re trying, according to RT, to get dialed in to a global surveillance system in some way. I predict they’ll fall on their butts if they continue down that path just as they have in paying sources in the past or when they cannot be produced in Moscow, quietly keeping employees who make them up Steven Glass style.
Stratfor’s had plenty of banal observations before about Eastern Europe being ‘good tank country’ etc etc, even if their Russian history on the whole isn’t so off base. But the Russian press recently outed one of George’s female employees as a fraud. But in George’s defense, it’s possible she put one over on the old man for a while until forced to verify her sources. The young lady from Austin, Texas claimed to have had super secret meetings with Yury Chaika, then the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation, in the middle of Moscow, during a period when I know for a fact from Moscow contacts Chaika was actually in and out of hospitals with heart problems (not saying there weren’t other stressors in Chaika’s life at that point, but I’m fairly certain meetings with a chubby American girl from Texas were not one of them).
Mr. X,
That’s all interesting stuff, especially the dish about “a chubby American girl from Texas”, but the bottom line is that (contra your post above) DPG does not seem to be an admirer of political analysis by STRATFOR or its CEO.
I recently had the chance to speak with the CSO of a large US chemical company about his sources of information and he mentioned STRATFOR subscription services as important to him. Whether he and his peers are spending their money wisely or are lemmings is an interesting question, but if they put money on Turkey and Poland becoming major powers in the 21st century they may be a bit embarrassed.
Marc H,
I only meant chubby by Moscow standards. You should go over if you’re single and have a look. For all the crap hurled at Russia and Russians in general here at PJM you’d think D.C. had the most gorgeous women on Earth instead of a bunch of 7s who think they’re 10s because they’re in Hollywood for ugly people.
All I’m saying is if Stratfor is the gold standard for private intel to the Fortune 500 no wonder our elites no so little about the world.
married with several kids … will have to leave those assessments and comparisons to others
Oh and Stoch, since PJM’s software chews up my replies at Wretchard’s thread (he tends to do that to Senor Equis, while you whine that Spengler is intolerant, I don’t even see Richard enforcing the 4 posts limit for you), here’s my reply to you regarding your worship of ‘Vagina Riot’, if you prefer to euphemize the translation.
http://rt.com/news/femen-cross-pussy-riot-930/
In ‘solidarity’ with these hooligans the group ‘FEMEN’ is now chainsawing Russian Orthodox crosses in Kiev. This is of course the kinda of thing the Bolsheviks used to do in the name of freedom from outdated dogmas, but you can’t see the historic irony that in the name of attacking ‘Putin’s KGB Church’ you are endorsing Soros-funded Bolshevism in a ‘trendy, milder’ form. Your and Subotai’s logic now being that since the Russian Orthodox Church is simply an arm of the ‘KGB/FSB State’ (a lie, but a lie that one cobble together some rumors and public events where the Church was included enough to support, like saying Israel is now a total theocracy because some ultra-Orthodox have gone too far or thrown stones at people who drive on the Sabbath). By this logic the ROC is fair game for provocations, criminal trespass, and even perhaps destruction of private Church property. How very Bolshevik of you. What a mirror image of the Obamanoids logic that once the Roman Catholic Bishops rediscovered that they are men and took a stand against abortion supporting politicians, they became an arm of the Republican Party!
But it goes to show just how deep the lies and manipulation of the Globalists (who merely use Commies as their dupes) run, that in the name of anti-Communism and kneejerk Russophobia they can get otherwise rational conservatives to endorse Bolshevik/Alinsky-type actions.
Woe to those who call evil good and good evil. If there are posers among the Russian Orthodox clergy they will be found out on the day of judgement. In the meantime once America is under a Soviet-style regime let your pastor who preaches Romans 13 be the first to cast a stone against whatever Kirill may have done in the past.
” He stood still on the sands of the sea”
The book of Revelation
So what if you call me crazy for looking for understanding on our present mess by turning to God’s word the Bible
Remember The True God chose Nebuchadnezzar from Babylon to tame the world. why you may ask?
This can be explain by what happen beginning in 1914 when Christian “Israel went wacko and began offering all their children to the God Molech and this spirit of Nebuchadnezzar became King of this world by 1945 with the great great fire test the world has never seen on Japan and the birth of the nation of Israel took place the next year and the 70 years of being slave to the King of Babylon ends in 2016 with the coming of the great great spirit of Cyrus when holy returns to Jerusalem so we see how the God Molech has become very frisky in the Middle East and the spirit King of Babylon has lost the ability to keep Molech in the sea so it seems so wacko seems to be coming to a movie screen near you
Get out the popcorn while there is still time
or start to prayer fervently
The Mouth of Sauron travels (apparently from Dol Guldur) with three other Nazgul, meeting up with Goblin forces in the outskirts of Lorien. From there, they prepare a mighty Goblin army by creating Goblin Caves and Fissures. From these wretched places come numerous warriors, archers, and Cave Trolls. The Mouth and the Nazgul lead this mighty army to inner Lorien, where they destroy the Elven structures and kill all in their path. Haldir is slain during the first part of the assault. While invading Lothlorien, the Mouth orders his Goblins to release Mountain Giants trapped by the Elves, providing additional firepower to the assault. At the very heart of Lorien, the Goblins assault the mighty structures and all those that seek to defend them. Galadriel manages to escape the assault, but Celeborn is killed.
The Goblins finish the job by destroying Lorien’s massive Tree Palace, where Galadriel and Celeborn lived. This signals the complete Fall of Lorien. Galadriel is seen fleeing while the Mouth and his Goblins celebrate triumphantly. The Mouth then looks into the Mirror of Galadriel, eagerly viewing and planning the next stages of the Fall of the North.
The Mouth of Sauron is a high demon. Anyone of use human beings can become demon possessed. The demon’s aim is to steal your faith in the True God and bring curse upon your lands
Cutting off the head of the demon may mean you win a battle but not the war because the head grows back just as sure as spring turns into summer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FfRRpRAHI0