The Muslim Brotherhood Wants the Bakery, Not the Pita
As Matt Bradley wrote today in the Wall Street Journal, “Saturday’s flap comes during a precarious moment for Egypt’s economy”:
Egypt needs financial assurances from its wealthy Arab neighbors to both shore up its $11 billion budget deficit and to help underwrite a $3.2 billion loan Egypt is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF loan will be crucial to repairing the damaged perception of the Egyptian economy among foreign investors and forestalling a currency devaluation. If Egypt can gather the domestic and regional political support necessary to secure the loan in the next few months, economists expect the country can avoid a disorderly collapse of the Egyptian pound.
Egyptian financial authorities rejected the loan last summer, in part because of expectations that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer, would follow through on its commitment to lend Egypt $3.75 billion. Except for $500 million sent last summer, Egypt has yet to see the rest of the cash. But last week Saudi Arabia agreed to deposit $1 billion in aid with Egypt’s central bank.
The IMF repeatedly has said that Egypt will need “adequate external financing from Egypt’s international partners,” a phrase that economic analysts understand to mean in-kind loans from European, American and particularly Persian Gulf Arab donors who hold extensive business, political and cultural connections to Egypt.
In short, if the Saudis don’t underwrite the IMF loan, the whole house of cards will collapse, and Egypt will run out of cash to buy food. Its cash reserves have fallen by two-thirds since Hosni Mubarak was ousted and barely cover two months’ worth of imports. That’s not good for a country that imports half its caloric consumption. The difference between Egypt and a banana republic is, no bananas. Guess who will ration bread at street level? The Muslim Brotherhood. That’s how Leninists or Nazis take power.
The Muslim Brotherhood wants to blame the likely collapse of Egypt’s pound and ensuing economic chaos on the military and establish a totalitarian Islamist state. Its anthem will be: “Today Egypt, tomorrow, the Gulf.”
I repeat the recommendation I gave in this space April 18: “What should the United States do about it? The answer is: Make things worse. If the Brothers are taking power in Egypt because the military can’t rule, we should undertake to make it impossible for the Brothers to rule.”
UPDATE, April 29: Egypt’s Salafist party, the extreme Islamists, have withdrawn support from the Muslim Brotherhood presidential candidate and backed instead a more liberal ex-Brotherhood figure, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. Why would the Salafists break with the Brotherhood? Probably because they are funded by the Saudis, who are rightly alarmed by the Brotherhood. The Saudi Ambassador to Egypt has denied funding the Salafists. No-one believes him. Welcome to Arab politics.
Spengler,
I hear you, and you are most likely right, about the situation, what will happen and what we should do about it. However, if anything happened to the House of Saud I would find it hard to shed any tears. In fact, whatever the downside, I would probably consider it a positive.
Langenbahn,
I would not shed any tears for the House of Saud, either. But the order in which our enemies might fall is of great concern to us.
“The order in which our enemies fall …”
A perfect way to put it.
Your suggestion sounds like the perfect course of action, which means making it worse won’t happen. Maybe it’s just too counter-intuitive?
The deal is done between the US-AfPak and India moving forward.
We are not going to support any attack on Iran
Turkey is now the major player in the region-
-Turkey is the major NATO ally of the US-after the UK-we have the situation under control in relation to American fundamental interests.
Israel is in no peril-
-unless some factions in the IDF choose to do something stupid-
-in which case there will be civil war among the IDF
That is a low probability at this time– but possible
Yep “civil war among the IDF” is not very probable, is it?
There is a civil change happening now in Israel. Netanyahu government with a majority of voters backing is trying to overturn the Tal Law which grants exemptions to Arab and Haredi citizens from service. Non military options are available. I think this is long overdue.
Turkey has big issues on its southern border and has only taken tiimid steps to this point. The regional leader could settle the Syrian problem in a week or less. It could leverage that against Iran and initiate a regional stability which could last for decades.
Everyone awaits a Turkish role whereby all actors, including US, Euros, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestinians, and Israel retain secure relations and trade. Great, and the tooth fairy has a special computer to help keep track of all the teeth.
Your major players in the area are: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Syria, and Iran. Turkey dreams of its former glory but is in no position to try to re-attain it. It would use itself up in three months of war with anyone. Egypt is a hollow shell still dreaming of its “October Victory”. Militarily it would use itself up in one month of war. Saudi Arabia is more bluster than anything. Could win a war if it could throw money at its enemy. Its military ability would make it last about a week. This leaves the two really tough guys on the block. Syria is capable of fighting a very dirty extended war. Fortunately it has its own internal troubles which limit its resources. The last player on the block is Iran. Since the fall of Iraq, there is no effective counter balance to this threatening country. It has geared itself to be able to fight a long protracted war. Its fanatic leaders dream of uniting all of the Moslem world under their flag. Short of the type of war we waged in Iraq, it is a very difficult to contain or control. Any major attack on them no matter how successful will be seen only as a temporary set back.
I remember when Laurent Murawiec wrote that
Iraq is the Pivot
Saudi Arabia the strategic pivot
Egypt the prize
Has anything changed really…
I think that Daniel Yergin would say that the oil resources of the PG, Iraq and Central Asia are “The Prize (http://www.amazon.com/Prize-Epic-Quest-Money-Power/dp/1439110123/ref=pd_sim_b_1 )” and I agree with that, apparently along with China (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-cnpc-loads-first-oil-from-iraqs-al-ahdab-2011-12-29).
I read a few articles by the late Mr. Murawiec but am not acquainted with him having referred to Egypt as “The Prize” (I assume you agree?)? I’d like to know what he meant by that.
I’d say that Egypt is not the prize but the “booby prize”. The MoBo may think they can control Egypt through food but (along with Lina Inverse) I’m skeptical that they would be able to ride that tiger for long.
That Egyptian prize is called the Suez Canal, the crucial waterway between the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, which that very access drive the European, Middle Eastern, North African and the world economies and trading for centuries. Close the canal completely, everything comes crashing down in a rippling effect.
“The Egyptian prize is called the Suez Canal” … touché … that is an excellent point (which I am embarrassed to have ignored).
Still, I think the oil and natural gas resources of the PG and Central Asia have more significance.
That’s dated. The mega tankers and shippers don’t care about that little canal. Even the Panama canal is off limits to many of them. Egypt will have nothing but a pile of rocks when all is done.
I’ve read that apx. 30% of oil traffic and also western naval traffic utilize the Suez Canal so it does seem that such a disruption would be a problem.
Somalian pirates are in the news more than ever because big shipping now moves around Africa. The Suez is for the Middle East and Southern Europe, not the global economy.
This could get dangerous. How better to fire up the people for war: “Our neighbors have food and won’t give us any! here’s a gun, go take it!” In the past famines have led to war and mass migrations. Why wouldn’t it now?
“here’s a gun, go take it!” – I think the Egyptians will need a bit more preparation than that to make a go of it against the IDF deep in the Sinai desert. That would be a mobile armor/air/logistics/electronic battle in open terrain, the sort of warfare in which Israel excels.
The Egyptians did very well, all things considered, at the start of the 1973 war, but they had they benefit of many years to plan and train (with USSR help). Also the battle involved a relatively short penetration into the Sinai and then a fixed defense.
They mostly had the benefit of taking Israel by surprise. Israel won’t surprised by an Egyptian attack nowadays.
D.P.G.’s are the only columns I always make a point to read.
The Egyptian government is walking out on its gas contract with Israel which includes millions in infrastructure. How will investors react when contracts are not honored and a new government could nationalize entire industries?
Israeli will be fine. The pipelines are already destroyed. There are other suppliers and in a few years Israel will be a net exporter of gas. Only Egypt will suffer as a result. Israeli agricultural and water management technology could solve Egypts food issues but pathological hatred prevents them from acting rationally.
Good. I hope they irrationally think themselves to death.
The real Egypt was overrun and ruined by koranimals. I hope they all die before they can destroy all the real Egyptian historical treasures. And you know they will. It’s all they know how to do. Riot, destroy, rape, pillage and burn. They would not be missed, those vile, evil koranimals.
Some of the possible math and logistics here bothers me (ignoring how it might help our goals as outlined above).
Let’s accept the above stated goals of the MB (it is, after all, a tried and true method of controlling a populace: get on the wrong side of the rulers and you starve to death).
Will there be enough food they can seize from Egyptian farmers and import from abroad to keep all or enough of their supporters fed? Or might we be looking at something like North Korea where they can’t even keep the army fed? (They just lowered the physical requirements like height because of this.)
Plus a situation like the latter will require iron control over the people; are they in or will they be in a position to achieve that?
I guess one might ask if this will be akin to cargo cult science, where the MB might not understand all that’s required to achieve their goals. Of course, if they’re truly Leninist they wouldn’t mind starving to death a large fraction of the population to forge their New Muslim Man … I more wonder if they’ve got the level of organization to do this, especially in a culture that I assume is still clan and tribe oriented.
It is interesting to consider that the Botherhood (sp.) plans to fall back to using the same tactics employed by Egyptian pharohs – control the population with food.
The obvious solution- Egypt invades Saudi Arabia. Could anyone stop that? Would anyone stop that?
Obviously, the Red Sea will put paid to such gambits.
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The reality is that the Egyptian Army has ZERO expeditionary power.
M1A1 tanks are diesel pigs. Desert campaigns use, get this, five times as much fuel per mile as Europe/America/Russia.
Why? Effectively NO ROAD NET. A couple of main highways do not suffice.
There are only THREE viable routes for tank armies through the Sinai. So all of the hand wringing about the Egyptian Army defeating the IDF with a Sinai campaign is as fantastic as Rommel driving Montgomery into the English Channel: completely impossible.
And, lest we forget, the IDF would not hesitate to use tactical nukes out in the boonies — counter-force doctrine and all.
The Egyptian Army is a BUSINESS. Period. Stop.
It has lost its main reason for being: the Duck of Death — Daffy, himself.
America should wind down further tank exports: Egypt is ‘over-tanked.’
Instead, the money HAS to shift over to rice, corn, oils and whatnot. ASAP.
David – The last I heard about the IMF loan (from you column) Egypt had refused it, and I commented that the IMF should count itself lucky. Now, I hear from you that their still considering giving Egypt the loan. (Don’t these stupid people ever learn?) Given the size of Egtyp’t budget deficit, I don’t see how it could ever repay the loan. The IMF is simply throwing away good money. It should reconsider.
Also, the way things are going, Saudi Arabia might consider allying (or at least aligning) itself with Israel. At some point, it’s going to need a protector from Iran, and the US is weak reed, indeed.
They are already dancing together.
However, open alliance for the King is utterly impossible: he’d be murdered by his own.
So please stop running such a nostrum up the flag pole: it’s entirely counter-productive.
Instead, observe the wisdom of Sgt. Shultz.
make things worse = expedite their demise
Sheikh Youssef Qaradawi is 85 years old. Give the $11 billion to Berlusconi to relay to Qaradawi at a bunga bunga party. Ask DSK to take pictures.
“The Muslim Brotherhood hopes to use Egypt as a power base to replace the corrupt monarchies of the Persian Gulf with a modernized, quasi-Leninist breed of Islamic radicalism, and the Saudis have made public their alarm about the Muslim Brotherhood for months.”
Hmmm, funny how nobody in our own State Department, let alone the White House, could see this coming. Remember when Obama threw Mubarak under the bus? Everything was going to be sunshine and roses by supporting those thugs in the streets of Cairo. Well, welcome to the Middle East, Mr. President, where nothing is as it seems and where all of your plans for a nice arab future are turning into dust. This is an object lesson on why it’s dangerous having naive socialists in the White House. They really start believing their own propaganda about the world and then are suddenly dismayed when they are proven oh so wrong. Pathetic.
And don’t forget the craven media, without which the whole myth of an “Arab Spring” could never have been perpetrated. One of their own, Lara Logan, was gang raped by a mass of crazed revelers, in the midst of a televised report. Not a word was reported by the fraternity she swims with. And, strangely, to my way of thinking, she continues to swim with them. She must like the pay. And she certainly looks no worse for wear, horrible as it was, as if she does not hold it against them (“them” being the Moslem mob and also the despicable media elites she associates with).
We only know what happened to her because the elite media no longer hold a monopoly. Mark Steyn wrote about Lara’s horendous victimization, and called out her craven employers, even while she was still hospitalized. Others in the REAL press followed his lead, so lots of us did learn about it, CBS and the rest of them notwithstanding.
Yet the broader American public to this day knows nothing of the true nature of last year’s events in the Moslem world. Just as they know nothing of the impending starvation in Egypt, and the many nightmares sure to follow.
Thank God for the internet.
Obama threw every secular leader in the middle east under the bus. He has Muslim Brotherhood in his own administration and I would not be surprised if the apple didn’t fall too far from the tree. Israel had better not relay on America until this joker is out.
The difference between Egypt and a banana republic is, no bananas. Guess who will ration bread at street level?
Pretty much tells the story about Egypt without its dictator.,P.
Sort of reminds me of Haiti without its dictator. Seems both countries are doomed to repeat history.
Meanwhile, the Saudi sheiks with infinite money(courtesy of US enviros) and a philosophy that says we can buy anyone and everyone. They are all for sale! Has let that sage of wisdom Mohammed,still stuck in a well by the way, takeover things in his country and is now ready to export his infinite wisdom to the rest of the world.Meanwhile the Sheiks,obviously not too impressed with the wisdom of the well dweller, rest in the back seat of their Rolls watching porn on the sat TV.
If it sounds strange you may be right.
The Saudis are reaping what they have sown for years. Unfortunately, that puts us all in danger.
When you look at Islam’s economic track record — in other words, its long term historical ability of the Moslem Man living in Dar al-Islam to put food on his family’s table — the picture is bleak. This subject is seldom discussed, and when it is you usually get a Marxian brush off with something about imperialism or whatever.
The irony is, it’s always the Western Infidel who gets stuck with the dinner tab. If we’re gonna continue this course, why shouldn’t the Chinese step to the register and help pay? After all, they’re the ones loaning all the money. Or what about the oil-rich Moslems like the Sauds or the Persians or that dude in Brunei? Why is it us who always pays for dinner?
The Russians under Tsar Putin may be the slickest of all when it comes to handling the mad muzzies.
They pretend to be on their side but instead use them to do dirty work all over the globe.They side with them in syria, iran and all the hot bed areas of the globe hoping to stop the muzzie takeover of mother russia.A massive country which has 27 time zones and at least one person for every square mile.
Alas, even Pootie forgot that in the end he’s still an infidel and given the chance they whacked out mooslims will still mount his head on their mantel right next to the picture of that old well dweller.Mack Mohammed.
So there is a choice. The Muslim Brotherhood, the Military who has a history of whipping up hatred of all things Israeli and the Saudi supported Salafists. Change is good. May it be long lasting and continuous.
You have to reap what you had sowed, Saudis, you created, nurtured, and funded a ruthless monster for decades. Now that monster is going to bite you on the butts.
Correct. Most people are unaware that in the 50s and 60s countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon were quite civilized, with men and women attending Universities together, wearing pants and dresses, openly drinking and going to the soda fountains or record and magazine stores that were common. The hajib was virtually unknown in these countries, a quaint style from the savages that ruled Saudi Arabia.
“Most people are unaware that in the 50s and 60s countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon were quite civilized, with men and women attending Universities together, wearing pants and dresses, openly drinking and going to the soda fountains or record and magazine stores” – With respect to Afghanistan, that is still partly true in Kabul and a few other urban locations. The provinces and rural areas are much more traditional. It is also common that cosmopolitan Afghans will dress in western fashion in large urban areas and traditionally if they visit a rural area.
Rob – “You have to reap what you had sowed, Saudis” … yes but if Radical Islamists take over KSA and the Arabian peninsula it will not be pleasant for us either.
It’s my impression that aid from various Saudis to radical Sunnis increased dramatically post 1980 so that they could remain a player in the Muslim world after the emergence of the Khomeini regime in Iran. This analysis argues that the radical regime in Iran is the main driver of Middle East instability.
Vastly underpopulated but oil rich Libya is an obvious target for Egypt. I would encourage them to go for it, and fight to the last man to get it.
Ho, but that’s what they’ve already done.
While ‘civil war among the IDF’ is about as likely as pigs flying, there are some undercurrents to Israeli politics that would suggest that perhaps some elder Israeli statesmen are getting nervous about America’s long term financial health and consequent ability to project power/maintain a vast military industrial complex. One might view the feelers put out to the BRICs as a kind of very limited insurance policy. Just don’t tell anyone in D.C. about those UAV crates the Russian army got with Hebrew lettering on it, it would spoil Mittens’ Romney (or hell for that matter, Center for Security Policy and Heritage’s) narrative of enemy number one dealing with our BFFs.
BRICs
UAV crates
BFFs
Speak English, Mr. X, please.
BRIC = developing economic powers Brazil, Russia, India, China = B-R-I-C
UAV = unmanned air vehicle, at which Israel excells
BFF = Best Friends Forever, a Paris Hilton-endorsed acronym
Flying pigs are not Kosher — making them entirely inappropriate in a Middle Eastern context.
Egypt will simply starve the remaining Copts to death thereby reducing its population by 10%. That will still leave them with a 40% deficit in food production. The question is are they ready to sacrifice 40% of their population in wars around them. If they feel that they have nothing to lose, there is no question about their decision.
Egypt will simply starve the remaining Copts to death thereby reducing its population by 10%. That will still leave them with a 40% deficit in food production. The question is are they ready to sacrifice 40% of their population in wars around them. If they feel that they have nothing to lose, there is no question about their decision.
Well ,some GBU-28s falling on the Aswan dam might weaken their warlike resolves …………..
Im really getting fed up waiting for Egypt to burn to the ground. When will this happen already? I have a $100 bet on the line and I’m getting tired of waiting! Is this gonna happen or not? We r going on 2 years now. Tired of waititing.
All together now…..
“Burn baby burn…Egyptian inferno”
#22 is right, Dear DPG: when do we get the promised mass starvation of Egypt already??
We;re getting spot shortages of bread already. At present rates, Egypt is out of money by the summer. We’ll see.
There will be no starvation. Basic food is cheap. The UN is feeding one million Syrians and millions of North Koreans. The western infidel hated Christians will feed the Egyptians as well. This is not the Ukraine under Stalin. We will pay for their calories. We will pay for their calories even as they attack out interests, if not attack us directly. Had WWII been fought today there would be, no blockade of Nazi Germany, only food shipments. After all, why should the people suffer on account of wicked rulers. And how wicked can they really be, if they oppose the US and Israel? That is the real world.
That’s a bit different from 80 million Egyptians.
The resulting unrest is quite likely going to take the form of an exodus to Libya.
FYI, Cyrenaica in ancient times was considered the western wing of classical Egypt.
Tripolitania was politically linked to either Carthage or, later, Rome.
And right in between lived the Duck of Death’s tribe. (!)
This is the primary reason why Libya is such an odd, cobbled together ‘nation.’
The territorial vacuum in the center ( thinking coastally ) is vast. That’s why Rommel and Mony whipped back and forth in WWII — and the Revolution repeated the exact same pit stops. (!)
In the fullness of time, Libya may yet split.
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Meanwhile, figure on many an adaptive Egyptian to move west to earn a paycheck.
( The Egyptian Army is half into real estate development — owning the largest ‘private’ contractors in that nation. Somehow, I figure that reconstruction in Libya is going to require their services. )
The point is if the people of Egypt, whatever their faith, will allow the MB government to starve them. Indeed, a reduction of the 40% of the population in few years would be interesting. Pol Pot did it in three years in Cambodia, IIRC.
The problem to starve and kill so much people is interesting. The main problem is to starve the right people so to keep the society functional. If they starve too many peasants, the food production will suffer, reducing the carrying capacity of Egypt. But starving people in cities will be much more difficult without open clashes and riots. Then, the starving would prevent people from having children. One, two at most. They would delay childrearing for many years. The demography would collapse. This would be an enduring hit to the Islamists, needing decades to be undone. Decades where Islam will be unable to expand. What would be of all the Da’Wa in Europa and US and other parts of the world if the M.E. is plunged in chaos, famine and war?
Using external wars to kill so many people is dangerous, because the external enemy(es) will not be interested in maintaining the MB in power. This is because dictators rarely become expansionists; they must damage their Armed Forces to be able to keep them under control, and this make them unsuitable for external expansion. The Army is good to repress unarmed peasants not armed soldiers.
Anyway, a reduction of the 50% of the Egyptian population, with the following emigration of people to avoid starving will be something will shock all the M.E. It would be a very big reshuffle of the cards. And the Islamists would be verily weakened by this.
Curious, in your “Horror and the Pita” of May first in the Asia Times, you seem to take the implied position that making it worse only makes it worse? What gives? Having second thoughts on a Muslim Brotherhood vanguard spilling through the Middle East for the next seventy years, like the old Bolsheviks of the Soviet Union?
“Although the Salafists propose an even more extreme version of the Muslim Brotherhood’s program, oil is thicker than blood in the region; the Salafists get a reported $50 million annual subsidy from the Saudis, and presumably are acting under Saudi orders.”
Saudi orders to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh seem like a good alternative.
the reason Turkey hasnt intervened in Syria, is because Syria and Hezbollah could whip Turkey’s ass.
No, it’s the Kurds that weigh in.
AND, the political leadership of Ankara is gutting their own military in a slow-motion civil war.
In the last year and a half just about everyman who was anything in the Turkish military has been ejected from their service.
So, Turkey has no offensive capability at this time. Further purges are certainly in the wings. The islamist faction does not want the army to throw them out onto the street: the old habit.
If you know how to read Nostradamus, you can see that in 30 years from now, China (and possibly India) will rule over the oil-producing fields in Iran, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula. Their gigantic requirements for cheap energy and their low esteem for political-correctness will allow them to wipe off every petty muslim thug that now rules these corrupt theocracies and replace them with oriental puppets. The Russian army, which by then will be a muslim-majority army, will be forced to engage the Chinese and thus will be unable to support their remaining muslim clients. Thus, the rest of the muslim rulers maintained until now by the undeserved saudi wealth will fall like a house of cards, Egypt included. The UK’s muslim prime minister will have to send several million of his British-born pakistanis and somalis to fight the orientals and the US will be entangled in legal nonsense sorting out the sharia courts in their midst which forbid their muslim soldiers to be served non-Halal meals not approved by the FDA-CAIR. In spite of all the support and all the demonstrations in Eurabia and Muslim-America by every muslim-loving leftist and by the descendants of the riff-raff imported since Obama, the muslims will be vanquished by the Chinese, who won’t give a damn for these backward muhammad-loving savages. Thus the Rule of Terror, which radiated from Saudia Arabia and its cohorts and kept the Western world at bay from the 1970′s until the 2040′s, will come to an end.
Your crystal ball is cracked: Peak Islam is already at hand.
Fracking is doing it in.
It is already acknowledged by China and the US Geological Survey that she has more shale natural gas than America. (!)
This new reality is entirely destroying the economics of long distance methane transport. It’s also certain to increase the concentration of motor vehicles using Compressed Natural Gas ( CNG ) rather drastically.
Currently, the number one nation, by percentage, using CNG is PAKISTAN. (!) They’ve got a tremendous deposit in Baluchistan that permits them to power most of their cars.
And, of course, Red China already has their Beijing taxi fleet running on CNG.
Current NG pricing in America is down around $ 2/ Mcf vs $ 16/ Mcf in Japan or Korea.
Russia exports NG to Europe priced with reference to crude oil. ( OPEC )
Yet Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, London all sit in the middle of a vast, vast shale deposit covering Norther Europe.
So, dead ahead, every major European economy is going to shift over to self-production of NG.
Well, at least the Israelis can sell their surplus NG to Southern Europe.
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Without massive fresh revenue, islam will slump back into the desert, whence it came.
Other than liquid energy, the ummah has absolutely nothing that the West wants to trade for.
Thank you pictionary, I apologize for the heavy acronyms. Amity Schlaes had a good piece today for Bloomberg on how fiat fanatics marginalize advocates of a return to a gold standard, hard or soft, with the word ‘nuts’ and false history (although Ron Paul was WRONG about the Byzantines, they fought lotsa nasty wars and experienced numerus assassinations/revolutions, he was right about their gold standard up until the last few years before the Turks sacked them).
Treating the status quo since Nixon took us off the gold standard in 71′ as some sort of eternal condition of mankind that all sensible people recognize as the only sane way to define the money supply is a classic parlor/debator’s trick, akin to 1960s liberals wondering how anyone could ever take Goldwater seriously at all or even wondering where he came from. Unfortunately when it comes to Paul all sound, elegant argument at which David and other PJMers tend to excel goes out the window.
But the total Fiat Age (since admittedly there was plenty of fudging about gold after WWI got the debasement ball rolling) represents one iota (or to use the Gospel of Matthew phrase of Jesus, one jot) of human economic history.
Seems Bloomberg has developed a grudging respect for goldbugs of all stripes from Jim Rogers to Marc Faber to Jim Grant. That’s not to say the boss hizzonah the Mayor likes goldbuggery as without the central bank bailouts of their biggest terminal subscribers, it’s hard to say if Bloomberg would be riding as high today. They certainly would still be around, however.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-02/gold-standard-for-all-from-nuts-to-paul-krugman.html
And finally, yes Virginia, there’s evidence both the Chinese and David’s more familiar race the Germans are stockpiling gold against Der Tag when the euro if not the dollar crumble and a quasi-gold backed EuroMark is rolled out for what the geographer Joel Koetkin calls ‘New Hansa’ (Germany, Benelux, Baltic states, Scandinavia if not including France). The Bundesbank (NOT the ECB which is a bunch of IOUs) does not have a $100 billion stockpile of bulleon for nothing.
And in response to blert’s point, shale gas has proven to be a major disappointment so far in Hungary and Poland, with wells drilled by some of the best — that being Exxon Mobil and small U.S.-based exploration companies that have formed EU subsidiaries. You could try to explain that one with a conspiracy theory that XOM values Russia’s Arctic more than EU shale gas, but I don’t think any oil company thinks that far ahead in time horizons unless they’re under serious political pressure.
That’s not to say shale gas has no future on the Continent. In fact, the Ukrainians who’ve long had their run ins with Gazprom (though there was some gas stealing years ago on the Ukrainian side) are opening tenders on drilling both offshore Black Sea and onshore wells. So it may turn out that despite all the hype about Poland or even the UK that Ukraine becomes the rising competitor to Gazprom in Europe, rather than those NATO stalwarts. As for Gazprom, they’ll likely just shift to more oil output from Gazpromneft while cutting natural gas production and hope for the best.
So there, I criticized Ron Paul – the good doctor has obviously never read Edward Luttwak’s History of the Byzantine Empire, nor all that much Spengler about Cardinal Richileau’s ruthless ‘management’ style.
End of thread for me.
Mr. X…
XOM is a laggard in the art.
She’d LOVE to buy out the cutting edge minors in the US — but the politics makes it impossible.
( For starters, the minors have a more favorable tax treatment that evaporates upon capture by Big Oil. )
It’s less a case of the technology as the Talent + the Technology. There’s a lot of art involved. In new strata, a lot of stumbling and bumbling is certain to happen.
AND the BIG story is the Chinese realization that the best natural gas comes from home. It’s drastically changing their thinking WRT Middle Eastern investments.
Iran being the number one casualty — India has already entirely given up on running any natural gas through Pakistan. Rightly, they figure they’ll have a ‘Sinai experience.’
As for Israel: her economy is about to benefit from oceanic natural gas. Amazing things are about to happen.
Egypt is about to become a banana-peel republic: falling down just about every time a foot is planted.