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Monthly Archives: November 2011

The subject is Italy.

The Arab Demographic Collapse

November 2nd, 2011 - 11:40 pm

Discover Magazine’s blog reports on the collapse of the fertility rate in Arab countries, a major theme of my new book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Too)

In the post below I stumbled upon a weird datum.  Kuwait’s total fertility is now below 3. The average estimates seem to be ~2.5 or so. This surprised me, as my impression was that Gulf Arab petroleum based states tended to encourage pro-natalism. This was both a matter of ideology, and also because the small and wealthy native populations lived off rents, and had not had to modify their neo-medieval ideologies to foster productivity driven economic growth. But perhaps Kuwait is an anomaly? Well, it turns out that the Saudi fertility rate is now below 3 as well. Again, depending on which numbers you trust a value of ~2.5 seems plausible. In 1980, at the peak of OPEC’s power and a period when Saudi Arabia was flush with incredible per capita wealth the fertility rate was north of 7.0. But even in the mid-1990s Saudi Arabia’s fertility remained a robust 5.0. Obviously one has to account for the fact that some of the “Arab” nations are not very Arab. The UAE has huge South Asian and Persian populations, not to mention all other sorts. So its fertility of 1.80 can be chalked up to its unique demographics. But would you have guessed that Lebanon’s fertility rate is now the same as Finland’s?

The blog features an animated graphic that shows fertility collapse over time.

Stereotypes die slowly. The demographic decline of the Muslim world has been apparent since the mid-2000s, when I first began to write about the topic. But we are so attuned to the Muslim takeover-by-birthrate narrative that we do not consider something quite as scary: a chaotic breakdown engulfing a billion people, some of whom have nuclear weapons and others who are trying to get them.

Impressive Romney

November 2nd, 2011 - 7:11 pm

Along with enough people to fill the Grand Hyatt Ballroom to black-hole-of-Calcutta density, I heard Mitt Romney do his campaign thing in New York this morning. There were three classes of people: the VIP donors, the proletarians like me, and the Occupy Wall Street demonstrators chanting outside. To squeeze into a smaller room so packed that you couldn’t get to the coffee, the VIPs paid $2,500 apiece; the proles paid a measly $500 to stand sardine-fashion in the ballroom to hear Romney speak. I’m told that the OWS types outside had to kick in $50 each to the campaign to demonstrate against him, but that might be an exaggeration.

First, Romney didn’t look nearly as plasticized in person as in the TV debates. In front of a sympathetic crowd, and without notes, he sounded a lot more genuine, enthusiastic, and Reaganesque than the carefully-coiffed figure we hear on the tube. Second, he addressed the tough issue up front: Obama, he said, would beat on him for being wealthy. And in return, Romney would beat up Obama for his lousy economic track record. There’s no hint of defensiveness on the class war issues, and that’s a good thing. All in all, I was reassured about the man’s electability after seeing him in person.

Afterwards I went to hear a famous political consultant speak at a think-tank meeting. Famous Consultant was asked whether Romney might suffer from a low turnout among evangelicals. No way, FC replied: the evangelicals may think that Romney’s Mormon faith is a cult, but they hate Obama so much that they will come out to vote for him. Obama won, FC continued, by eliciting a huge turnout from three groups: 1) Blacks, 2) Latinos, and 3) younger voters.  No more: Obama’s approval ratings among Latinos and the young are down to 44%, about the same as his rating in the general population. African-Americans know better than anyone else how badly the economy has done on Obama’s watch. They will still vote for him, but they won’t turn out with the same energy.

That’s encouraging, for a change. I’m not endorsing Romney, first of all, because analysts should stand above the fray, and secondly because I am equally happy with Romney, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum. Whoever can beat Obama has my blessing.

And I’m also scheduled to be on Blog Talk Radio at 8:15 p.m. with Rick Moran.

Subject: Greece and the Financial Crisis

And here’s the link to the video: