Looting the Egyptian Currency: Democracy in Action
Al Ahram adds that it will be hard for Egypt to obtain foreign aid under the circumstances:
Depleted reserves and the outflow of investments can only be compensated by international aid. Egypt turned down the offer of a $3.2 billion financing facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this summer, in a move that the then Minister of Finance Samir Radwan attributed to Egypt’s ruling military’s reservations about increasing foreign debt.
Hazem El-Beblawi, minister of finance in the now resigned cabinet, said last week that the country is reconsidering taking the loan. But CI Capital’s Mansour ruled out this possibility: “The IMF loan to Egypt may be muted on the back of such unrest and the reshuffling of the government — which will further undermine investors’ confidence.”
Cairo has so far received in-principle offers of aid totalling well over $10 billion from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, it did not get even half this sum so far in what analysts attribute to reservations many Gulf countries hold against the fact that former ally Mubarak is facing trial.
The Obama administration, the mainstream media, and the liberal punditeska sit insensate before this hideous spectacle like children at a matinee of “Peter Pan,” hoping that Tinkerbell will come back to life. “If you believe in the Arab Spring, clap your hands!”
It is frightening – a country of 80mm people, an hours flight from Europe is in rapid massive collapse and unless you read alternative media (or the Asia Times) you would be completely unaware of it.
David, I am praying your analysis proves wrong. The consequences of your being correct are just so horrific. That said, it looks like the only thing you got wrong is the timeline. It is happening even faster than you said.
what about other currencies beside dollar – why not rials or gold?
Huge amounts of dollar cash are in circulation precisely because it functions as a global store of value. The US $100 bill is the world’s standard black market instrument.
So much so that a 3% premium is placed on singles in order to make change, at least in some places. When the local currency goes bust, businessmen will give you a $100 bill for $97 in singles because they need to be able to make change for people who only have 100′s, or maybe 20′s.
Is it possible for a simple raft/boat to sail from Egypt to Crete/Cyprus ?
If it is Greece could soon have one more problem on its shoulders.
Desperate people will try desperate things, but it seems much easier to get to Israel. That would be interesting. If I were calling the shots in Israel, I would give them a few meals and move them on to Lebanon.
Well, if they go through Sinai that could solve some problems. Jews needed only 40 years, and they had the pillar of cloud and fire . In 2052. Israel could just be big enough to receive what is left of them.
The Israelites had Manna and water from the Rock to ensure their survival as a race (many, of course, fell to snakebites, were consumed by fire, or put to death as criminals, but the nation was never in danger of starvation or dying of thirst because God provided for them). The Copts have no such provision assured them.
The Copts only comprise 10% of the Egyptian population. It may even be less now.
Currency theft in Egypt will probably not mean much in the near future. Because the currency will most likely be inflated to Weimar levels, as seen by the high exchange rate per USD on the black market. Incidentally, it’s noteworthy that they want American dollars, not Euros- methinks they’ve already concluded that the EU is going into the same economic death spiral that Egypt is.
As for the theft of commodities by those in charge of them, since when is this news in the Third World? Or in socialist countries? I’d call it business as usual. It’s what happens when crooks run the government, anywhere.
What’s happened in Egypt is that the army is apparently no longer listening to the thugocracy that replaced Mubarak. In such a situation, the two most likely outcomes are (a) a military coup, followed by a military dictatorship, or (b) a complete breakdown, with the military going into “every man for himself” mode, just like everybody else.
In the Arab world, (b) type outcomes seem to outnumber (a) types, in recent years, so in Egypt, my money is on a (b).
Egypt is about to implode. Those who worshiped the “Arab Spring” are probably in shock, that the reality did not measure up to their fantasies.
Except of course for those who were hoping for what really did happen. Because chaos is a good thing, to some of our more delusional “enlightened ones”.
clear ether
eon
“Weimar levels?” This is based on what? What IS the black market rate? I was in Brazil in ’83 when the then Cruzeiro was devalued 30% in one day and nothing like that is happening in Egypt. Saying it WILL is not news, it is wishful thinking.
How do you know “they” want dollars and not Euros? Are you monitoring the foreign exchange houses and the black market? IS there a black market to speak of? I’ve been in places where it is so prominent that the black market price and official price are in the newspaper and black market stores operate openly; there is nothing like that in Cairo.
“The army is… no longer listening to the thugocracy that replaced Mubarak.” The army replaced Mubarak so they would be the thugocracy.
Based on such “facts” you say Egypt is going to breakdown.
Here’s the best part: You say “Except of course for those who were hoping for what really did happen. Because chaos is a good thing, to some of our more delusional ‘enlightened ones’”.
You’re right, you’re hoping for the worst but stand aside as if your nuanced views of Egypt somehow don’t qualify you for the same spanking and so consist of dispassionate “reason” based on “facts.” Your comments are the perfect example of “delusional” enlightenment.
Brazil is a major food exporter. Egypt imports half its food. The difference between Egypt and a banana republic is the bananas.
Indeed.
David, you are a wise man.
Also, pretty funny (in a gallows kinda way).
Wise? I still don’t get it. Bolivia in ’83 had 20 pesos to the dollar, in ’85 350, in 88 one million. How many bananas did they have? There is nothing approaching this in Egypt so why the alarm bells? South America survived, so will Egypt.
Unless you’re dumb enough to believe Egyptians will march on hated Israel with torches like Frankenstein’s castle. Sure, that’s really, really likely.
This incredibly stupid idea that in the midst of this crisis Egypt is thinking about Jews says more about people who are wilfully self-centered than about anything happening in Egypt.
Writers already picked out 7 signs out of 10,000 and tried to make a case for Jew hatred in Tahrir – epic fail.
Bolivia is a net food exporter. Egypt imports HALF its caloric consumption.
Egyptian unemployment has gone from 9 to 12%; that’s a long way from the collapse of an economy. And how does Egypt’s borrowing and bonds stack up against the unprecedented interest rates of the Eurozone era?
Spain has 22% unemployment and they have neither collapsed nor gone feral.
I guess all of Europe will be marching on Israel since so many people are convinced entire countries obsess about Jews.
How about people who gloat every time an Arab takes it on the chin? What’s that called? I understand the middle east is a problem factory but why the delight?
Do your homework, or:
see my recent essay “Cairo Egypt and Cairo Illinois.”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MI20Ak01.html
Only half of the 51 million Egyptians between the ages of 15 and 64 are counted in the government’s measure of the labor force, which is why the official unemployment rate stands at only 11%. America’s labor force of 153 million, by contrast, comprises three-quarters of the population aged 15 to 64. If Egypt’s labor force were counted in the same way as America’s, the unemployment rate would be 40%. The effective unemployment rate is even higher, for three-fifths of Egyptians live on the land, while the country imports half its caloric consumption. Agriculture productivity in Egypt is so poor that most farm labor must be considered disguised unemployment. 30% of Egyptians of the relevant age, moreover, attend university, while only half graduate, and of those, few find employment. Perhaps an additional 3 million Egyptian unemployed are warehoused in the university system.
More than half of Egypt’s population has nothing to do, and lives on one form or another of public subsidy. The world economy does not want them. With a 45% rate of effective illiteracy, Egyptians are unfit for modern factory work, and the products of the university system mostly are unqualified for engineering or administrative jobs. As Egypt’s state finances disintegrate under conditions of unrest, the position of the redundant half of the country’s people is becoming desperate. It is hard to see how a catastrophe can be avoided now that Egypt’s tourism industry has dried up.
There’s no doubt Egypt’s greatest problem is 85 million people trying to live on a single river. I was just trying to figure out how the Egyptian pound going from 5.65 to 6 in a year is some disaster and Bolivia’s going from 20 to a million is not; it needs a little more than just saying they grow their own food.
Even a largely agricultural America couldn’t manufacture its way out of the Great Depression and if rich people are sending out Bolivia’s food to more lucrative markets how does that translate into an absolute equivalent where everyone in Bolivia will then be happily fed?
The West and Gulf is not going to let Egypt starve; it just won’t happen. You’ll see Nigeria go long before Egypt because they’re even more useless outside their country than Egyptians. Egyptians do in fact have to stop having kids or they will eventually face a series of near collapses.
Not let Egypt starve? How? Once civil society breaks down, as in Somali, how do you actually get food to hungry people? Even if the West and the Gulf States were willing to pick up a $10 to $20 billion annual tab, which I doubt, the social breakdown we see now will be a picnic compared to what happens, for example, when the military leadership flees the country.
I concede the point: I just don’t think the scenario likely. Having food in a country is not a de facto guarantee the people will get it anyway and so cannot be a measuring stick. If this were not so Haitians wouldn’t be eating mud cookies.
Army, Islamists or revolutionaries, Egypt will still have enough credibility to have compassion from outside Egypt fill granaries according to each sphere’s agenda. No one gives a flying frick about Somalia relatively speaking.
Could Egypt devolve into civil war? Sure but it’s extremely unlikely. The army in Egypt wants to hold onto power but are looking at Syria and Yemen and others and quite frankly don’t know what to do.
I concede conceding the point. Ahem…
I worked for a major bank through 4 changes of currency; from Cruzeiro to Cruzado to Cruzado (novo) to Cruzeiro saw 6 digits lopped off and the value of our mid-eighties currency dropped to a millionth of the value of the 1990s one.
We got by, by investing in the “overnight” (money in the current account would be loaned to the govt., from 16:30 to 08:30 the next morning for anything from 20 to 23% a night, at the time) to stretch out one’s salary to pay one’s debts.
People with commodities such as aluminium for window frames would only sell enough to pay for their monthly expenses and then only as the need arose, so one could spend a month trying to fill an order to make a frame or two.
The army is the dominant portion of the thugocracy in Egypt.
I wonder how the intellectual elite will react as tens of thousands of Egyptians begin to starve. Will they take more tax dollars from the infidels to help (I wonder how much islamic money will flow in to save the day)? Worse, as the starving look for food, will they see Israel as ripe for the plucking? And what will Israel have to do to save itself?
Way to go Barack and the rest of you socialist pukes….
David W. asked: “will they see Israel as ripe for the plucking?”
To quote a tough guy who didn’t get plucked:
“Hitler and his Nazi gang have sown the wind: let them reap the whirlwind…….When I warned them (the French) that Britain would fight on alone whatever they did their generals told their Prime Minister and his divided Cabinet, ‘In three weeks England would have her neck wrung like a chicken.’ Some chicken! Some Neck.”
Canadian Parliament 30 December 1941
http://www.winstonchurchillcanada.ca/ac_FamousQuotes.php.
Are there actual pictures of re armord car roberies?
The banks may just be makeing excuses for not wanting to give out cash.
One can’t rule out the possibility that bank managers are simply reporting the armored cars missing, and taking the money themselves.
The FBI is the lead investigating agency for armored car robberies in the U.S. and provides advanced criminal investigations training and assistance all over the world. There is undoubtedly a large FBI Legal Attaché (LEGAT) office in Cairo. It would not be surprising if the FBI Cairo LEGAT offered assistance (analysts, classes, access to forensics labs, etc.) to the Egyptian MOI in this matter. Of course, if these are not genuine robberies (senior bank and government officials are behind them), then the relevant MOI assistant minister would likely just keep the LEGAT in his office and offer Turkish coffee, sweets and “circle talk”.
I was writing a comment on another thread that applies here too: the totalitarians’ way of waging war against Freedom is a series of phases, chaos is their goal, because in chaos it becomes very difficult to rally the Patriots.
This administration of totalitarians is happy to be spreading chaos all over north Africa and the Middle East, it will make the future immensely more difficult for Israel and the West.
It’s the same subversion they are promoting here in the States, simply easier (for them.)
I’m just waiting for someone in the army or the Interior Ministry to decide he has the right to try to sell the Sphinx and the Pyramids. I’d love to see Branson, Trump, an al-Saud or 2 and some random Russian oligarchs get into a bidding war.
Eric J.,
Just noticed your post here as I was reading upwards from my #13.
Noooobody wants to touch this Pandora’s Box.
The box has already been sold. If you want to open it you’ll have to go George Soros’s house which may explain a few things.
I don t know egyptian legal system, but if entry into possession is needed maybe it would not be so bad if Soros buys them. Pyramids have traps I believe.
Obama’s plan is working perfectly. Mubarek prevented chaos. Now the people bent on eliminating freedom in the western world have a free hand in another country and hence another thorn in the side of stability. Another job well done by the world’s community organizer. Let’s review:
- blocked missle protection in Poland
- isolated Israel
- tacitly supported the Iranian mullahs
- chaos in Libya
- chaos in Egypt
- withdrawing from Iraq. Chaos scheduled.
- withdrawing from Afghanistan. Chaos scheduled.
- blockage of energy development in the US
- European financial chaos
- anarchy in Greece…soon to spread elsewhere in Europe
- US downgraded. Economic collapse abetted by 5 trillion in $ flushed down the toilet
- refusal to even consider addressing financial situation in the US/
- breakdown of the rule of law in the US…too many examples to cite
- OWS
- many other fractures in the US social fabric
- open borders
Could it be going any better for little lenin? Big Lenin may have to take second chair in another year or two.
But UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES should any conservative vote for Romney or Gingrich. Even if the entire world collapses, we simply cannot give into rinos. Who knows what they will do, including giveing 25+ year illegal residents a path to citizenship. Can’t have that. Much better to commit societal suicide than let the rinos win.
so this is how it ends ! amazing how a handful of sh!theads in washington are destroying the civilized world.
…and to what end? what is their upside? …the wages of envy and greed and hate.
it isn’t just the rino’s all of congress and senate with woefully few exceptions are the same.
Well, if you’re going to go and make a big, long list, it makes it seem bad, somehow…
Oh! That’s right!
IT IS BAD!
Please don’t tell Obama. It might make him miss his putt. Besides, I’ll have to report you to ATTACKWATCH!
If either Romney or Gingrich win the Republican nomination, I will be at the polls voting for either/or. Don’t expect me to stay home and allow another 4 years of Obama and the Democrats without voting. I will vote for Daffy Duck if necessary to get Obama out.
Obama’s plan is working perfectly. Mubarek prevented chaos.
Not really. Mubarak’s blatant corruption and brutality
destabilized Egypt. The Islamists penetrated Egypt on
his watch, and with his tacit consent. (If he cracked
down on the Moslem Brotherhood, he allowed lots of other
Islamist activity: the persecution of Naguib Mahfouz,
harassment of Coptic recruits in the army.) His policy
was to sabotage all non-Islamist opposition so that he
would be the lesser evil – and could continue looting.
Now the people bent on eliminating freedom in the western
world have a free hand in another country and hence another
thorn in the side of stability. Another job well done by the
world’s community organizer. Let’s review:
- blocked missle protection in Poland
- isolated Israel
That’s been going on for many years. Obama has
moved the US somewhat onto the bandwagon.
- tacitly supported the Iranian mullahs
That’s a bit strong, but Obama has been far too
accomodating to the mullahcracy.
- chaos in Libya
Qaddafi bought that himself. And he was thoroughly
corrupt, venomously hostile to the U.S. and complicit
in the murders of U.S. citizens. Obama’s contribution
to this mess was to dither for weeks when immediate
U.S. intervention could have been instantly decisive.
- chaos in Egypt
See above. Mubarak baked this cake.
- withdrawing from Iraq. Chaos scheduled.
Obama completely bungled negotiations with the
Iraqi government.
- withdrawing from Afghanistan. Chaos scheduled.
At least he didn’t run away immediately. We’ve
come much farther in Afghanistan than I thought
was possible under Obama. Again, his dithering
before he finally agreed to surge additional
forces was destructive – though not as bad as in
Libya.
- blockage of energy development in the US
Oh, come now. Don’t you understand that oil, natural
gas, and coal are obsolete, and that solar cells and
windmills will solve all our energy needs right away?
Let’s all chant like good sheep: “Green energy good,
fossil energy bad.”
- European financial chaos
Not his fault. There were many people who prophesied
that the Euro would end very badly. And Ireland’s
insane property bubble, Spain’s huge “green energy”
boondoggle, Greece’s profligacy, and Italy’s being,
well, Italy, all began long before he took office.
- anarchy in Greece… soon to spread elsewhere in Europe
See above.
- US downgraded. Economic collapse abetted by 5 trillion in $ flushed down the toilet
Obama faced a bad situation when he took office.
He then moved to make it much, much worse.
- refusal to even consider addressing financial situation in the US/
He thinks he has. The Fed and the Treasury
have done some pretty big things in that
area – though not, IMO, the right things.
But they can’t be accused of inactivity.
- breakdown of the rule of law in the US…too many examples to cite
- OWS
He’s been stupid about this. The OWSers are the usual
suspects – the floating far-left fringe. Mildly destructive,
useless, pointless. If Obama had come out and stated
flatly that there is no justification for mob action
and pseudo-civil-disobedience, and denounced the OWSers
as they deserve, and encouraged cities to clear them
away, he would have gained considerable status with
moderate and even conservative Americans. But his far-
left sympathies are in control here.
(“pseudo-civil disobedience”: Gandhi and King freely
accepted that they were breaking the laws and that the
authorities could arrest them. By making the authorities
explicitly enforce unjust laws, they won public support
for repeal of those laws and removal of unjust officials.
The OWSers assert the right to break the law and _not_
be arrested because they are _so_ _right_.)
- many other fractures in the US social fabric
- open borders
He didn’t start that. And we don’t have “open borders”,
just “very, very leaky borders”.
So, you only agree with proreason about 80%?
Mr. Goldman:
The Jerusalem Post had an article yesterday quoting Netanyahu that he has been making new contacts with various unnamed Arab countries, prompted almost certainly by their mutual concern about Iran. Do you think this concern, coupled with Israel’s strength and prosperity relative to the Arab countries, could lead to some kind of rapprochement? I’ve often wondered what would happen if a wide president (should we ever get one), through his Secretary of State, were to visit a certain Arab countries, to include Saudi Arabia, and proposed that they all appear, together, on a stage with Israel and declare open relations among them.
I’ve also wondered about the more practical – and Islamic – tactic of the relevant Arab countries declaring a hudna (the ten-year-maximum truce sanctioned by the Koran) during which time Israel and the relevant countries work together to deal with Iran, Syria and perhaps the Shiite militias, such as Hezbollah?
And of course, when the hudna expires, “hostilities” could return for, say, 24 hours, and then a new hudna reestablished for another ten years – repeat as often as necessary.
This presumes the leadership of those countries and the actual populace of those countries have similar opinions about the Jews vs. those other Muslims. They don’t. As Spengler’s book points out, every time democratic elections have been held in the Middle East, they always elect a a figure or movement that is either religiously motivated to hate Jews and America, or…well, that’s pretty much it. Our “allies” in the area are the few secular strongmen still in power, and as the years go on, they’re falling, one by one. The Shah was one of them, Mubarak as another, and the Saudis still hold to us in the hopes of control of their own country.
The fact of the matter is, democracy or no, people will only live for so long with a leader who represents them falsely (either in a traditional society or a modern one; the standard-bearer cannot dance to his own tune); the situation you describe would be unbearable to the people of the Middle East, and would only hasten the overthrow of any leader who chose that strategy.
Maybe Netanyahu just needs Saudi airports to bomb Iran and go safely home. Saudis would not mind blowing Iran up, Netanayhu would not mind blowing Iran up so there is only a question how to cover up eventual cooperation so that Saudis dont look bad after Iran is blown up.
Israeli pilots could use appropriate soundtrack during the hit and run, Beach Boys feat McCain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg
The Dollar is going to get stronger in the short term, not only is the Egyptian Pound falling, but the Euro is also crashing with awful bond auctions in Germany and Italy. There is a massive movement of capital into the relative safety of the US from the EU, China, and the turbulent Arab spring nations, as well as others. We can expect world commodity prices to fall in dollar terms, as the dollar appreciates, and world economic activity slows.
The increased available capital in the fuel tank of job creating investment capital in the US, should help offset the voracious Government Monopoly’s sucking of it dry, to the tune of $2 Trillion a year at the Federal, State, and Local levels. We will still continue to suffer from leftistmismanagementt, just not as badly as it could have been.
We are watching a train wreck in progress.
We are watching a slow motion apocalypse.
We are watching a pale horse and its rider.
The Bitter End has arrived. He wears a red mask. Kindly take his hat and coat, and lead him to the drawing room to meet the other guests assembled for the party.
My earlier suggestion that Messrs. Buffett, Zuckerberg, and Gates(i.e.Bill) step up and buy Egypt was a bad one, as Mr Goldman suggested. Not even the ever-alert Chinese are wanting to touch this one. Not one Russian billionaire
reported sniffing around.
ZeroHedge reports that Russia just added 19.5 tons of gold in October alone, and Venezuela’s central bank took delivery of a ton (no word on where are the other ten tons that were stored in British banks, maybe a failure to deliver?).
Many people seem to think that the dollar is worth more when it is reported as being stronger but that is almost always in comparison to other fiat currencies.That is a useful and accurate idea but the better measure for the long term is measuring the dollar against several commodities like gold, silver copper and oil.For example how many dollars buys a gram of gold, an ounce of silver, a pound of copper, a barrel of oil. Most of the governments around the world are printing money at a high rate in competitive in unofficial devaluations.Even the rich have limited ability to escape the plunder of government created inflation.The poor often can not even buy food.
There is not, nor ever was a thing called an Arab spring. There is Chaos is the Arab world supported by NATO/global government to futher the Muslim Brotherhood. In return for what?
Order? A decrease in population? Keeping terrorism out of Europe, and America? An Arab economic region with one coin? Or, all the above? I don’t know, but it sure is turning out just as a lot of us thought it would. In bloodshed.
This is a problem in perception: South America has entire swaths of cultural depravity and economic malfeasance and they’re not Muslims. The number of murders in some cities is incredible including the 20 grand a year in America itself.
I don’t get it: if 100 people die by terrorism that’s worse than 1,000 by crime? Go to Sao Paulo with a hundred dollar bill taped to your forehead and then Gaza and see which one gets you shot quicker.
The difference is in goals, not in methods – one organization is dedicated to destroying us and our way of life, the other only looks for personal enrichment.
Well the personal enrichment folks are killing a helluva lot more people than Muslims. In Mexico alone the drug war is responsible for 45,000 deaths in the last 5 years. Can you show worse than that? Even the Turks have only killed about 25,000 Kurds in the last quarter century.
But okay, I’ll die with a smile knowing it was for common robbery and not just ideological stupidity.
there is a lot of thanks owed to obama and clowns.
this is probably a bigger success for them then anticipated. I am sure they thought that it would be harder then this to destroy civilization.
it must take a lot of hate and envy to want to do so much harm.
Mr. X @ 14: They are breaking the gold shipments to Venezuela down into increments and not announcing delivery until they have made it “safe” in Venezuela. If one shipment get’s “lost” then the insurance payout on the shipment won’t break the insurance company.
One of the more amusing comments over at Zerohedge was about the photo’s of Putin et al holding the gold bullion bars and announcing the purchase of the 18.5 tons of gold to re-enforce the currency, it was, “I’m writing in Putin for President of the US.” Now there is a real gold bug.
If Egypt is near chaos, can someone please explain how the USS George HW Bush carrier group transited the Suez Canal into the Med maybe a week ago? Total news blackout, but, it did happen. Someone in Egypt’s military is still at work?
Still think Egypt’s military should seize the eastern Libyan oil fields. And, all the Copts Occupy Sinai.
Cognitive dissonance from the msm has Tahrir protesters simultaneously calling to cancel Monday’s elections AND for the military to step aside.
More Jew hatred in Egypt, this time openly orchestrated by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Obama’s new buddies (old buddies?):
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4153207,00.html
‘Cairo rally: One day we’ll kill all Jews
Muslim Brotherhood holds venomous anti-Israel rally in Cairo mosque Friday; Islamic activists chant: Tel Aviv, judgment day has come’
Obama’s old buddies, through Rashid Khalidi.
I thought David would find it interesting that Stanislav Mishin, aka ‘Mat Rodina’ or an Orthodox Christian Russian nationalist, believes Russia should try to use its oil money to copy Israel’s model for people who make aliya (sp?). Of course, I think he vastly overstates the Russian diaspora as 100 million when it’s more like 10 million, perhaps 1.5 million of which are Russian speakers in Israel with the rest largely divided among the Anglosphere countries and France.
http://mat-rodina.blogspot.com/2011/11/russias-vapid-and-misguided-immigration.html
And perhaps Mishin understates the degree to which some Western professionals, particularly the Greeks, Spanish and Irish, ain’t going back home once they settle into Moscow or St. Petersburg in the next few years. That should be in the short term a source of stimulus for the Russian economy and provide a badly needed talent infusion — though the Greeks don’t speak the language, at least the share the alphabet and religion.
Medium term of course Russia’s economy rises or falls with exports to Europe and China, and if those zones implode watch out. If Putin had left office in 2012 I think he would be hailed as a kind of global statesman within ten years, ala Gorby, but better liked back home. Now that he’s hanging on until 2018 the cracks are starting to appear, judging by his reception at that MMA fight the other nigth by Moscow’s upper-middle class aspiring elitny.
Mishin even wants a ‘Birthright Russia’ trip shamelessly copied from the Birthright Israel trips. I think he’d get more mileage out of offering foreigners on work visas free weekend Russian classes, which would in turn increase the likelihood of their sticking around, marrying Russian women (and increasingly, females marrying Russian men) and making Russian babies. Either that, or Russians better get used to most of the non-CIS foreigners they see speaking Russian being either Indian or Chinese grads of Russian universities, by the shape of things I see in Moscow.
Obama, the democrats, the MSM minus Lara Logan and all good liberals worldwide have such a vested interest in the success of the Arab Spring since they hung their own hats on it. Just as they spin their nonsense in our own country in an attempt to convince that all is well, they will ignore reality in Egypt. Then when all else fails and Egypt collapses, they’ll just blame it on the Jews.
Nattering Nabobs all.
This is the result of invading Iraq, which H. Bush knew well would happen and why he refused in 1992, ignoring PNAC intellectual garbage.
The entire premise of invading Iraq was to trigger a ” tide of democracy” in the middle east, according to W. Bush and his advisers in PNAC.
In fact, the PNAC Algonquin round table never understood geopolitics, preferring to maintain their misunderstanding in gilded ivory towers. As their carefully crafted blueprint for the middle east has blown up in their faces, they quietly disband and cover their tracks.
http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqmiddleeast2000-1997.htm
There are no shortage of idiots in Washington, GOP and DEMO alike.
What a funny post. The discussion is about a Muslim-flavored government which is being formed after toppling a Muslim-flavored government is in for an economics lesson grounded in reality. So, GWB’s fault for encouraging demcracy in Iraq is the prime mover for this new domino theory? Not even plausible. Moreover, it begs the question of the comment writer about any dedication to democracy in the first place. Can Egyptians much less Muslims as a whole deal with democracy and freedom? If you think so, then the “Iraq war” trigger for all this is bogus. If you think not, then you indict an entire religion and its billion plus adherents. What, pray tell, is so wrong with “liberation” when it actually might liberate? Nothing. And what is wrong with “liberation” which ends in totalitarianism. Everything. This is about totalitarians and capital fleeing their influence as best it may. It is the same story as in Argentina trying to “repatriate” capital, Greece now looking at “repatriating” capital and the other stories like it. Capital and liberty like each other; totalitarian instincts hate the liberty which allows capital to flee. Iraq under Hussein was not free, but the “boss” had plenty of capital. So Egypt’s problem is really just the same old problem, this time in one place. Last time in another, and next time too.
I think you have some pretty smart comments in there, especially about a thoroughly already Muslim gov’t and society somehow thirsting after more Islam.
One thing is for sure: there are no Jeffersonians in Egypt, no matter how much freedom they want. They are coming from a different place entirely. Those groups closest to the American paradigm are in fact a long ways apart from us.
Seriously, an appalling prospect is just what’s to fill the looming vacuums in M.E.N.A. as those artificially bordered (remember Colonialism?) Islamic areas called countries assume a porridge like uniformity of youth-riots and tear gas reactions? They know nothing of “Democracy”. Forget that. Armed militias will be cannibalizing each other.
Because the best organized and the most surreptitious and subversive elements in this vast arena are Islamist-trained, and eventualy mobilized from their “cells” of madrassa-trained die-hards, we Westerners indeed run the risk of an Islamic Caliphate, just as they themselves have advertized. Amsterdamistan, Londonistan…..and Dearbornistan are well established. Then,add to this a nuclear Iran…..
We must be pessimistic and realistic here, right now, and actively prepare ourselves for a one-hundred-year war against Islam. We Westerners must drop this insidious “politically correct” B.S. and all of it’s remote applications, and draw upon our lengthy Cold War experiences against the Soviets as the precedent for us to follow.
I really believe this; and it transcends Administrations and Parties. We must mobilize just like 1942, and enter into this coming election season with hard pragmatism. No “charisma” permitted.
Given the hallowed tradition of “….All the news that’s print to fit….”, NYT and WaPo previous patterns of concealment, and the inevitably alluring scale of the impending events, we may confidently expect a continuation of immaculate outer edges of newsrooms while the new horrors will be joining Lenin’s, Stalin’s, and Mao’s under the bulging Pentagon-sized rug of three monkey MSM journalism. Starving WWI victims had some saviors, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover#Humanitarian , and as the “All In The Family” line [ slightly twisted ] reminded us, we’re gonna need a guy like Herbie Hoover again. GBUSA
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/6/KJStWuU1gfU
Sarkozy wants a ‘humanitarian corridor’ in Syria — aka Libya part deux
Your taxpayer dollars at work while we’re worried about what Assad is up to. Notice the pool of blood spilling out of the demonstrator. Those weren’t rubber bullets these guys were firing. They won’t show this on U.S TV.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/44/oa2Cm9dqUqY
I am glad the MSM is ignoring Egypt in the name of solidarity and compassion. When it blows, people will be so surprised that no real action can take place.
Some of the comments are inane but fun. How would all those Egyptians attack Israel? On foot? The most you would see is a massive health hazard caused by defunct Egyptians. As to going to Europe, well there is a transport bottleneck, and I suspect that the Europeans might react strongly if the numbers were big enough.
Never forget that Egypt is Egypt because it is filled with Egyptians: whatever their fate, we must remember that there is a degree of contributory negligence on their part.
Cairo has so far received in-principle offers of aid totalling well over $10 billion from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Good to see the rich Arabs contributing something. Better than usual, if they actually deliver.
This brings up the spectre of Egypt raising the tax on crude oil passing through the Suez canal if they are really in such dire straits and this can mean even higher oil prices and an acceleration of the global recession.
Apologies to those who posted in the last 24 hours — I am the sole moderator of the forum and observe the Sabbath, so just got back to work.
David,
Does it not seem as though Egypt had long ago adjusted to 45 percent unemployment as its reality. Is this not the way things are in the Arab world in general – too many people, too few jobs. Will the West, in particular the United States, have to adjust to a similar circumstance – high chronic unemployment? Except in times of war, there have never been sufficient salaried position to cover the entire population of any country, even where some people were paid to dig holes and others were paid to fill them.
That’s just the point: Egypt “adjusted” by keeping agriculture unproductive and labor-intensive, and by packing ambitious young people into state-run diploma mills. Adjust in this fashion long enough, and you die.
Tax can’t be collected…
Vast bulk of OPEC crude does not transit the Suez Canal…
It’s too shallow for VLCCs…
So they float the long way round.
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And in other news: natural gas export income has dried up.
The pipeline across the Sinai keeps getting blown up.
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The latest generation of container ships is now too big for the Suez, too.
The China-Europe trade just can’t benefit from the canal.
Yes you are right on the UlCC’s and also the Vlcc’s which carry 200 Ton+ can’t use the canal but still 4 Million barrels go through Suez every day by mid size tankers and diverting them all though the cape of good hope could be cheaper or more expensive depending on the bunker fuel and a typical voyage from saudi arabia to rotherdam would take an additional 20 days. I wonder if the egyptians will play the Suez card if desperate.
“Transferring dollars between banks and exchange companies has become worrying more than ever.”
Can’t they just hire some Palestinians to dig some tunnels for them?
blert, the Suez canal also faces another source of competition if sea ice continues to retreat in the Arctic — the rail-serviced ports of Murmansk and Bodo for Chinese goods to EUrope and vice versa. It’s often forgotten but I saw a recent video that reminded me the flight time from Anchorage or Fairbanks is roughly equal to LAX, Tokyo, and Oslo, hence FedEx and UPS setting up hubs up there. The last bit is the part most Americans wouldn’t remember even if they conceive of Alaska as an energy-rich place. And then of course there’s the possibility of the Saint Herman of Alaska Eurasia-Americas bridge to Chuhotka forty or fifty years down the road…
Wouldn’t the northwest passage be cumbersome for shipping given the Canadians’ position that they own it and every ship that has to pass through has to pay a tax and the fact that they are getting belligerent about it? Also half the season the ships have to be escorted by a ice breaker and wouldn’t these two restrictions make it unprofitable to use the northwest passage?
when Zimbabwe fell apart, one tenth the population took off for South Africa to get jobs to send money home to their families.
So where will the Egyptians flee to find jobs?
This was a great post and essential reading for making sense of the news.
But, what made this one for the ages was the concluding picture of BHO and his advisors and media/academic cheerleaders, that smug and self-anointed set of practitioners and theoreticians of Smart Power, R2P, and Overseas Contingency Operations, watching the Middle East and clapping ‘like children at a matinee of “Peter Pan,” hoping that Tinkerbell (Arab Spring) will come back to life’ should be preserved for quotation by some future Gibbon.
I meant to add that Obama is a codfish.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfFQi4HVvbo&feature=related
Coptic hymn “Lord have mercy” (Gospodi pomiliu) Kyrie elieson
This is truly heartbreaking, on more than one level. There’s the obvious one, the inevitability that millions of egyptians will be starving to death perhaps by the end of the year. But what’s strange, and far more heartbreaking to me, is the odd commenter here who feels inspired to argue strenuously that this horrifying fact is not true.
Gary North wrote a fabulous piece about the impending collapse of the entitlement state America has constructed in the last forty years, in which he forges a new metaphor to describe the impending doom: the “yellow fever economy”:(http://lewrockwell.com/north/north1014.html)
He argues that “slow-motion train wreck” and “car without brakes” don’t describe it, because we know exactly what’s coming and how long it will take before the catastrophe strikes. He settles upon the yellow fever epidemic of 1878, which moved up the Mississippi at the rate of mosquito breeding. People in Memphis knew exactly what was going to befall them, but the city was largely unwilling to do anything about it. They died in droves, completely unnecessarily. They could have done something. They didn’t.
I don’t know if anything can be done to forestall the nightmare that is about to unfold in Egypt (I suspect the answer is exactly nothing). But I do know something about comfortable people in the West, who hold romantic notions about exotic countries. Arabists and people who are weirdly attached to the idea that Islam is somehow a good thing tend to react in knee-jerk fashion against truths such as the ones Dave Goldman forces us to face–and that has been made evident in this thread.
That is to say, the Egyptians, and even the West–unlike the residents of Memphis in 1878–might have no action available to them to forestall the impending nightmare. But at least we can admit it is indeed impending. And there’s no excuse for accusing the messenger of making it up. The mosquitoes are breeding, and yellow fever is making its way up the river. It’s striking town after town. Soon it will decimate Memphis. As Marty Peretz so aptly put it, “Arab Spring, My ass.”
Spengler it sounding the klaxon. There may be nothing we can do to stop the disaster, but the least we can do is not deny it.
“…the inevitability that millions of egyptians will be starving to death perhaps by the end of the year. But what’s strange, and far more heartbreaking to me, is the odd commenter here who feels inspired to argue strenuously that this horrifying fact is not true.”
It is not a fact and it is not true. How many of your relatives are buried alive? Yeesh.
The foolish and prideful joy in the west over the fall of Mubarak’s government has struck me as similar to the joy felt in democracies when the Czarist government fell. Hopefully there will not be a similar century of terror as a result.
Can’t protect the armored cars, but their drivers and guards are a-O.K?
Tell Egypt that they start getting aid as soon as over 50 percent of its population publicly forswears Islam.
And don’t give them one penny or one grain of wheat until then.