Egypt and Turkey: Middle East Basket Cases
No wonder the country is blowing up. An out-of-control kleptocracy is frantically trying to close on townhouses in Chelsea and apartments in the 16th arrondissement before the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves run out. What will ensue, will be horrifying.
Turkey is in no danger of starvation, to be sure, but it faces a severe economic setback: Tayyip Erdogan, the country’s Islamist prime minister, spurred the country’s banks to lend huge amounts to consumers in advance of last June’s national elections. Bank lending rose by 40% in 2010 and by another 40% in 2011, and Turks bought consumer goods from abroad, running up a balance of payments deficit exceeding 10% of GDP (the same level as Greece). Most of that is financed by short-term debt. Turkey won’t go bankrupt — it’s overall debt levels are manageable — but its economy will have to shrink by a good 5% to staunch the bleeding. That will deflate the neo-Ottoman balloon that Erdogan has been floating, and make it much harder to suppress Turkish grievances in the impoverished Eastern corner of the country.
There is no center of power, no reorientation, no neo-Ottoman empire, no Shi’ite crescent, no Arab Spring, no coherent description of what is occurring in the Middle East. There is only catastrophic social breakdown, civil unrest, despair and violence. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, they will be used. We cannot fix the Middle East. We can only protect ourselves from the fallout, starting with acquisition of WMD by a terrorist state. The last sentence of my book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Too) quotes Virgil’s warning to Dante in Canto III of the Inferno: Non ragionam da lor, ma guarda e pasa. Nothing to see here, folks. Keep moving.
If we could remove anything sharper than a butter knife From Mauritania across to Iran, we would have he uxury of sitting back, and letting them, and Allah, sort out their own problems.
MM – Your comment was short but gets right to the heart of the problem.
The fact that an almost failed state such as Pakistan can field a nuclear arsenal shows that we can’t sit back like it’s 1900 behind our Great White Fleet. In coming decades advances in technology (biotech, nanotech) will allow groups in even shatter-belt countries to threaten us with serious hurt using off the shelf-technology. As Spengler drives home in HCD, they don’t make what we would consider to be rational calculations (David – If I may say so, a few paragraphs in HCD on how emerging technologies could empower desperate groups in failed states would have made your argument even stronger).
IMHO, this is not a threat that can be addressed only with local proxy forces, drones or high altitude/cruise missile bombardment. It will sometimes take boots on the ground for a protracted period.
MarcH, point well taken. But I don’t think we need American boots on the ground in Iran. This is a fragile economy and political structure that can be disrupted by an intensive and prolonged air campaign.
David,
Thanks for your reply.
I agree that “boots on the ground” seem to be uncalled for in Iran at this time. I don’t know nearly enough to have a strong opinion about whether the solution there is bombing/SOF (as you advocate) or political/subversion (as M. Ledeen advocates), but as time passes w/o resolution I lean to your POV.
My call for “boots on the ground (sometimes)” partly just tracks the (classic) Spengler Red Harvest column from AT. As you pointed out, sometimes the best way to find out what’s going on somewhere is to be there and mix it up.
Pakistan is a scary place. God knows what will come out of there. I used to be somewhat involved in looking into counterfeit pharmaceuticals. I was floored as I leaned about the extent of the Pakistan based generic and counterfeit pharmaceuticals industry and thought a bit about how it might evolve and be put to more nefarious purposes in a few decades. This is, at least, another argument for not letting Iran erect a nuclear umbrella.
Yes, “Red Harvest” — the great American novel (maybe with the “Glass Key”) that no Hollywood director dare put on screen unmodified because it tells us too much truth about ourselves. If only we had the Continental Op in Iraq… there were a number of guys I knew from the Reagan era who fit that bill but none them has been active for a long time.
“We will eat grass, but we will have nuclear weapons.”
How come it is taking Iran so long? Too many prayer breaks?
In the midst of this darkness sits an oasis of light and calm, but the Arabs would like to do to it what they are doing to themselves. Then they can yell, Allah Akhbar (which, David, if you know Hebrew, is actually quite funny).
For the uninitiated, “Akhbar” (spelled with an ayin rather than an aleph) means “mouse” in Hebrew. We don’t like to talk about it, but that’s the real source of the Middle East conflict. That’s right — Hebrew speakers can’t keep a straight face when they hear Allah hu-Akhbar! And that’s why we secretly promote mouse cartoons as part of our global conspiracy:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HD04Ak02.html
David – Very good, I had a good laugh at how you explained that. Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving!
The Byzantines beg to differ. As an aged emperor once explained, “I’ve been fighting these Saracens for forty years, and I know a thing or two. In battle, they shout not ‘Allahu Akbar’, but ‘Allahu wa-Kubar’. ‘Allah’ means ‘God’. ‘Wa’ means ‘and’. Who is ‘Kubar’? This is, of course, Aphrodite, their deity’s consort. God of war … goddess of love … any questions?’
(Interesting article, too. Thanks.)
What is also overlooked by moonbats is that Allahu akbar, does NOT mean “God is great.” In Arabic, “God” = Allah and “great” = kabeer.
Allahu means “My/Our God” and akbar means “greater.”
Allahu akbar, therefore, means “My/Our God is greater [than yours].”
When a Muslim gunman shouts this, he is being very clear about his motive: jihad, the holy struggle to defend Islam by killing infidels. So apart from confirming that the Terrorist Acts are Mohammedan in nature it also exposes the reality of Islam because if THEIR god is greatest then there must be perforce other ‘lesser’ Gods. This reveals Islams Polytheistic roots and it also reveals the confrontational and supremacist nature of Islam. Needless to say Mohammedans are very happy that the moronic moonbats and the Islamophile, antisemitic Lame Stream EneMedia continue to mistranslate it as “God is Great” as this also gives them the opportunity to say that their God allah is the same as your God which is patently and clearly insane. The Mohammedan God is an evil , self contradictory, illogical, violent,misogynistic, vengeful , antisemitic, Arab supremacist God (its all in the Koran) totally unlike the Christian and Jewish God.
Pragmatist, as is said in Hebrew in Israel-B’diyuk-EXACTLY!!
thank you..it gives new depth and meaning…:)
Arabic 101a
==========
Just a small linguistic correction here: the correct term (in English transliteration) is ALLAHU A-K-B-A-R, not A-KH-B-A-R. The “K” and the “KH” are 2 separate and distinct letters in Arabic.
A_K_B_A_R in Arabic means “the greatest”. A_KH_B_A_R means “the news”.
Therefore, if you say ALLAHU AKHBAR, you’re really saying “God is the News” which has no meaning and is certainly not humorous.
If you change the “A” of “AKBAR” to “3″ (ayin), then it doesn’t mean anything at all since the word “3KBAR” does not exist in Arabic.
I’m always amazed how many Hebrew speakers know so little of Arabic. Not only are the 2 languages related linguistically, but you would think every Israeli would have an existential need and desire to become as fluent in Arabic as he possibly could. But this doesn’t seem to be the case. (Of course, the obverse is also true….the number of native Arabic speakers who know or study Hebrew is insignificant).
Allah isn’t God so who cares? In a decade or two all the oil will be gone and no one civilized will know of Arabic.
@gary gulrud
That’s what they said about POLIO and TUBERCULOSIS a few decades ago……how wrong they were!
“A_K_B_A_R in Arabic means “the greatest”. A_KH_B_A_R means “the news”.”
Not true! A_KH_B_A_R translated to English Means N_U_T_B_A_R!
@Fred Oliver:
“Not true! A_KH_B_A_R translated to English Means N_U_T_B_A_R!”
Well, yes. But another, more widespread meaning is —> A_C_H_T_U_N_G
And to think all this time that the Mid-East situation was so complicated. What was I thinking.
“What will ensue, will be horrifying.”
Spengler, I hate to sound like a broken record on this point, but I think it will be especially horrifying for Israel. Millions of desperate starving Egyptians, brainwashed for 60 years with Nazi hatred and under the control of the Muslim Brotherhood, with nothing to lose, will think nothing of trying to gain martyrdom either by advancing across Egypt in a desperate military move, or by marching MILLIONS of fanatic, suicidal Egyptians to march unarmed on the Israeli frontier.
The object of it would be to force Israel to kill tens of thousands of Arabs and raise the hatred to such a level that all restraint will be lost and Arab armies, missiles, chemical weapons, and even nukes (Pakistan, anyone?) pour into Israel to wipe out every last Jew. They will no longer care at that point about 200 million Muslims dying in an Israeli retaliation. It will not even require waiting for an Iranian bomb.
That’s about as childish a view as it is possible to make about Egypt. The average Egyptian doesn’t give a squat about Israel and are certainly not going to make a suicidal advance as their own culture bites the dust which it won’t.
Ever hear of the IMF?
“The average Egyptian doesn’t give a squat about Israel”
Polls in Egypt show that you are wrong, there is nothing that unites Egyptians more than their desire to see Jews wiped off the face of the earth.
” and are certainly not going to make a suicidal advance as their own culture bites the dust”
You must be blind to see the fanaticism with which thousands of Jihadists have sacrificed themselves to exterminate infidels. Where have you been the last 20 years? If just 2% of the Egyptian population is starving to death and fanatic enough to march on Israel – just 2% – that would be 1.7 million people. And unless Israel nuked them in the desert, most would survive the Israeli defensive efforts.
“which it won’t.”
So, who is going to pay to bail out Egypt for decades when the rest of the world is broke?
You must be nuts to envision millions of Egyptian civilians marching across the Suez Canal, the Sinai, to attack Israel.
And what polls are you referring to? Name them, source them. There are almost 85 million people in Egypt and they are a long way from fanatics, especially about Israel.
I find these ignorant generalizations absurd and the best reason why people hate each other and not the other way around. They said this type of things about Jews in Europe off and on for a thousand years and more. Demonize away and see what it gets you.
The Egyptian military should march into Libya and seize the eastern oil fields and water pipelines – both problems solved. Libya has the oil money to feed everyone and could use something like a professional military).
Even Obama/NATO/China will not allow chaos anywhere near the Suez Canal.
Not to be outdone, Lebanon is set for yet another crisis. Hezbolla is threatening to take over the rest of Beirut if Assad falls. He will and they will use a nonexistant Israeli threat to take over the rest of the country.
Meanwhile the PA has orchestrated yet another epic failure. Even Abbas is admitting now that there is no such thing as a peace process and it has nothing to do with ‘settlements’.
Appeciate Jack’s comments. News from Israel is almost boring these days which is a great achievement in the midst of the chaos.
spindok – Thanks
If Assad falls Hizbollah is cut off at the knees. There will be no shi’ite take over of Lebanon. In fact, look at the list of victims and see who’s next:
Hussein, Gaddafi and Bin Laden are dead. Next are Assad and the leaders of the shi’ites in Lebanon and Iraq. Last will come Iran.
America believed words kill and they are setting out to decimate those with the biggest mouths.
sh sh sh – we’ll do iran
israel
ps sh sh already doing
Cutting to the chase. The wheels are coming off everywhere, including MENA. In MENA there is the added danger of Islamic derangement. Iran most surely will try to incinerate Tel Aviv with the first or second post test nuke they are able to produce. Heck, they may even try to do the first test from atop a missile aimed at Israel.
Since we are teetering on the abyss ourselves our ability to take advantage of the situation a la Reagan and the Evil Empire is limited. That makes our biggest problem the need to stay out, (but for supporting Israel, a divine directive) even when the starving and inter-Islamic killing really gets going…keeping our powder dry so to speak. For as sure as the sun rise, the aftermath will be very, very messy and dangerous.
Another loose historic example. The Southern Radicals who started the Civil War (i.e. fired the first shot) believed that King Cotton would keep Britain at their side to the point of intervention. Suddenly Egyptian long fiber cotton got a shot at English textile mills…Oil is no longer King. As economies deteriorate natural usage decreases; as MENA heats up sources and trade routes become less tenable; local, and reliable sources become more viable just as proven reserves in other parts of the world come on line.
Were I a Saudi Prince with a real education (NOT from Ivy or LSE, but in something hard, like an ME degree from Georgia Tech, a Military Academy, NC State, etc) I would be sending the guest workers home, converting everything out of oil economy as fast as possible and batting down the hatches.
We can, and will, speculate at length what the mess and aftermath look like, for ourselves, our friends, our enemies and all the others. I don’t know either. As they say in stormy waters, hang on for heavy seas.
ta
“…batting down the hatches…”
= battening.
You’re welcome.
The Zionist neocon Goldman is at it again. Always writing about the coming collapse of the Arab and Muslim countries. Lies! Zionist propaganda! You are a filthy lying hasbaRAT Zionist propagandist! All your efforts are for naught…
You and your fellow Zionists are just mad that the Ummah is overthrowing the pro-Western and pro-Zionist illegitimate stooges that the Great Satan and the Little Satan installed and propped up over the last few decades to suppress us. It bought the Zionist occupiers some time, but now we are undoing everything the Zionist occupiers accomplished in the last 30+ years.
We are overthrowing the pro-Western and pro-Zionist puppets, one after another. And in their place we are establishing Islamic states ruled by the Sharia, from Egypt to Yemen, from Turkey to Libya, from Syria to Tunisia, from The Land of the Two Holy Mosques to Gaza, from Jordan to Lebanon, and many other places (and one day in Europe, and eventually in America).
Our numbers are growing rapidly, and you decadent infidels are aging and declining. You decadent infidels are in retreat. You decadent infidels are dying. Your societies are crumbling. Your economy is on the verge of collapsing.
America is on it’s way out of the Middle East. When the Americans leave the Middle East, the Zionist entity will disappear from the map shortly thereafter, Insha’Allah. We are 300+ million in the Middle East surrounding the tiny Zionist state of less than 6 million Jews. In the Middle East you are outnumbered by more than 50 to 1. Demography is destiny. We will swallow you Zionists up and spit you out into the sea. The end of the fake illegitimate Zionist regime is near. We will liberate Al-Quds from the Zionist occupier. The pathetic Zionist entity is drowning in the sea of the Islamic Great Awakening.
Allah is on our side. Our victory is inevitable. The Jihad and the Sharia are unstoppable! Allahu Akbar!
Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Koran is our law. Jihad [holy war] is our way. Dying for the sake of Allah is our highest hope.
Jihad is our path, Prophet Mohamed is our leader, and the Quran our constitution.
This guy is hilarious, great parody of the wack-job Islamist crazies.
Of course, to really appreciate this BS, you have to hear it in Arabic.
If you go to MEMRI, they have video clips of assorted lunatics & Imams frothing at the mouth like little Hitler-clones, ranting & raving like the madmen they are.
Get out of Palestine! Go back to Germany! Go back to Poland! You don’t belong in the Middle East! Go back to where you came from!
The Zionist entity will soon be destroyed, Insha’Allah. It will happen, one way or another. The destruction of the Zionist entity is assured. The weakening Americans are on their way out of the Middle East. The Zionist occupiers are unable to defend themselves from the Ummah that is surrounding them. We are 300+ million in the Middle East surrounding the tiny Zionist state of less than 6 million Jews. In the Middle East you are outnumbered by more than 50 to 1. Demography is destiny. We will swallow you Zionists up and spit you out into the sea. The end of the fake illegitimate Zionist regime is near. We will liberate Al-Quds from the Zionist occupier. The pathetic Zionist entity is drowning in the sea of the Islamic Great Awakening.
Allah is on our side. Our victory is inevitable. The Jihad and the Sharia are unstoppable! Allahu Akbar! Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Koran is our law. Jihad [holy war] is our way. Dying for the sake of Allah is our highest hope. Jihad is our path, Prophet Mohamed is our leader, and the Quran our constitution.
Lovely Earth on the drone again.
Islamist in Londonistan: “Go back to Germany! Go back to Poland! You don’t belong in the Middle East! Go back to where you came from!”
Then how is it that YOU belong in London?
It must suck to wake up every day being you, a hate filled stupid bigoted little worm worshiping a medieval demonic cult while the western world continues to enjoy life. Let’s see 300 million Arabs, 6 million Jews….target acquisition shouldn’t be to difficult.
Maybe he doesn’t “wake up” each day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOXCAKL9ESc&feature=fvst
“We are 300+ million in the Middle East surrounding the tiny Zionist state of less than 6 million Jews. In the Middle East you are outnumbered by more than 50 to 1.”
Considering past dust-ups, those are pretty good odds . . . for the Israelis.
I get it. You’re Helen Thomas, right?
Helen Thomas, is that you?
I’d take you more seriously if your syntax wasn’t so British.
You obviously are a white leftist college educated provacateur.
We’ve traced his Internet connection to a coffin in Forest Lawn Cemetery. He’s Zeppo Marx.
Hey, it’s Bagdad Bob back from the insane asylum! How was it Bro?
This is, of course, our old buddy, “LaRaza,” under a different guise.
all my life in s africa I was told to come here. now that i am here where do you now want me to go – the crematoriums (oop i forgot they never existed)
MOSSAD MOSSAD OR SAYERET MATKAL -> GET THAT MAN!!!!!
israeli living in the upper galili under the shadows 45000 missiles – waiting for the calming sound of the secondary blasts
He is great entertainment and reminds me of this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Sheik.
Soon as I see “islamist”, I skip to the next entry.
What a stupid schmuck!
And mist = shit in German.
Islamist in London,
Us Zionists are planning on removing the nukes from Pakistan (and stopping the program in Iran, of course).
I assume if you are an Islamist and are in Londonistan, that you might be from Pakistan, or have many Pakistan friends.
Can you advise on the bet method to extract the nukes from Pakistan with the least collateral damage?
The last time the red bearded angry guy showed up on TV, my kids had nightmares for a week, so we want to keep Redbeard calm.
One way or another, the nukes are leaving Pakistan. We would like to make it as painless as possible for all concerned, even though we know you love death as we love life. Its just the way us Zionists and Neocons roll . . .
If you Zionists are foolish enough to attack Iran, it will result in the destruction of Israel. Iran has 75 million people. The illegitimate Zionist state has less than 6 million Jews. The Zionist entity has no strategic depth. If you are foolish enough to start a war, Israel will quickly be destroyed. Any attack on Iran, and you infidels will be paying $200-$300 for a barrel of oil; and your economy will collapse.
If you attempt to remove the nukes from Pakistan, you will have Iraq and Afghanistan times ten. Pakistan has 180 million people. If you try to invade Pakistan, our Holy Warriors will decimate your forces. You already have a $15 Trillion National Debt; if you invade Pakistan you will go bankrupt, completely. Your Dollar will become worthless. Your stock market and economy will crash etc.
If you’re a Zionist, why are you living in America? Answer: Because you know that the Zionist entity will soon be destroyed. Well you’re correct.
Allah is on our side. Our victory is inevitable. The Jihad and the Sharia are unstoppable! Allahu Akbar! Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Koran is our law. Jihad [holy war] is our way. Dying for the sake of Allah is our highest hope. Jihad is our path, Prophet Mohamed is our leader, and the Quran our constitution.
I know this is an auto-troll, but what the heck…
“Allah is on our side”
Allah is not the Arab word for God.
Allah is the name of an ancient Arabic Moon Goddess of Fertility. The sexual deviancy displayed in the Quran is based on the odd practices of the priests and practitioners of this pagan sect.
I do not know if God is on our side or not…but he sure as hell ain’t on your side.
ta
michael hoskins – I don’t think you should speak for God. He is, as always, His silent, inscrutable Self. Note, the 6 million (or more) incinerated Jews in Europe.
Zeppo, it’s good to have you back. You can’t fool me. There ain’t no Sanity Clause.
Goldman the dirty Zionist, even you know that the Zionist entity will soon be destroyed. Why would a Zionist like yourself be living in America? Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is and join the Zionist occupiers in Palestine? Answer: Because you know that the Zionist entity will soon be destroyed…and you don’t want to put your body on the line. Smart move.
Allah is on our side. Our victory is inevitable. The Jihad and the Sharia are unstoppable! Allahu Akbar! Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Koran is our law. Jihad [holy war] is our way. Dying for the sake of Allah is our highest hope. Jihad is our path, Prophet Mohamed is our leader, and the Quran our constitution.
And about my humility, you say nothing?
Why would we want to invade Pakistan? A small special forces operation, and poof! The nukes are gone, forever! Then, all you folks can bluster and play to your heart’s content, while our drones, some of them Israeli made, controlled by pilots sitting in strip malls in Georgia and Vermont, patrol and bring death from above to anyone who misbehaves. Then, they go out for a beer at the stripper clubs next door.
Life is good, here in the West, my friend!
Indeed. You DO know of course that the secret bridge to cross the canal in 73 broke. I agree with you. but be careful very careful!!!!
la de da – we’ll see what will see – dont hold your breath. on the other hand you wont be surprised – you would see it coming.
wont see it coming
Israeli – living on the n. border
Did someone mention broken records?
“Allah is on our side. Our victory is inevitable. The Jihad and the Sharia are unstoppable! Allahu Akbar!”
When Population and Agriculture Collide: http://themeanoldinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/01/when-population-and-agriculture-collide.html
Good luck feeding your jihad.
Is this even funny on 4chan?……….
You have Allah on your side? My commiserations as he’s just been found guilty of non-existence and can’t even help himself. Shame! The God of Israel, on the other hand, has fulfilled His promise made more than two thousand years ago to bring the Jewish People back from exile. Game, set and match, I believe.
Don’t get to cocky Kibbitzer. Did you know their god’s a mouse?
I’ll say it again; this guy is AllahPundit circa 2003. Any chance of posting a new Dean-O photoshop essay for us? Come-on, you KNOW you want to do it!
Nice, CR.
It’s good to read someone who remembers the classic Allahpundit of 2003-4.
As a Bostonian my favorites AP shop spread was
“B!+ch$l@p in Beantown”, posted during the Crimson Jihad/Great Satan…uh, Red Sox vs. Yankees playoff series that year.
Allah the Mouse. Ha-ha-ha-ha-ah
Oi Londonstan bob that is your name aint it.
You said,
Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Koran is our law. Jihad [holy war] is our way. Dying for the sake of Allah is our highest hope.
When you ment to say,
Allah is objective. The prophet is a paedo.The koran is a bore. Jihad Jane makes your day, and dying in the sick of Allah is your highest dope.
You and people like you are just living in the past. People in the west can read. We may have been slow to get off the mark but we,re getting up to speed and islam will fail. Along with all your out dated rhetoric.
Save your ranting for the finchley mosque, and the dole office.
DO U FEEL BETTER NOW? IF NOT PLS TAKE YOUR MEDS
David, I know you did not intend for this site to be a comedy central sort of thing.
Too bad “Londonistan Looney” won’t expand his act…he is getting boringly repetitive; and thereby limiting our chances to be creatively sarcastic (and deliberately snarky). Oh well, I believe you said something about sanity…
ta
Jack just up the road in Silver Spring.
Sometimes just trying to increase the rate of boiling, for the fun of it…
You are, of course, entirely correct…
Michael – Thanks.
I must confess enjoying the banter and the merriment peppering the comments so far, but what about the main thrust of the article, the economic drama and its plausible tragic ramifications in the Islamic nations of the Middle East?
In the first place, what do you make of the cause-and-effect relation between financial turmoil in the West and economic crisis in the Middle East? For all their bombast, the Arabs have been dependent on the success of the western economies for their prosperity. The chain of causation is not a big mystery: We sputter, they suffer! If we learn how to use our own energy resources, and why not?, they will be challenged to produce goods. How about it? What is the path to such a felicitous outcome?
Sophomoric cross-language punning aside, “kabeer” (or “k’beer” in certain usages) means “great” or “big”, in Hebrew.
E.g., “…kabeer hu…” (“great is He”—referring to God) in the Passover Hagadah.
Same root as “Akbar” in Arabic.
File under: Sigh.
Indeed, many arabic words are derived from Hebrew, like many other things of theirs(muslims), they are not original but copied!
One perfect example is the word “Barak”, which Hussein Obama proudly says means “blessed” in arabic. The truth is, it is derived from the word Baruch, which means, what else, “blessed” . . . . and is used continuously in Hebrew prayers.
AFTER THE TRIP ACROSS SINAI STUTTERING MOSES SAID TO AARON TTAKE TH THE CH CH CHILDREN OF ISRAEL TO CA CA CA AND DIED. AARON LOOKED ON HIS MAP AND SAW CANAAN – SO WE ARE HERE ——-HE MEANT CANADA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Egypt is again facing years of famine but this time they don t have Joseph, son of Jacob, to help them mitigate their problems. Maybe once again they will have to look to Jews for help . After all, the only stable economy around is Israel,they could provide food for egyptians for a reasonable fee.. Suez, maybe?
One would think mass starvation and possible annihilation would call for a greater fall in the stock market than a 5% shrink in the economy. Was much of the doom already priced in for Egypt? I know markets are efficient, but that’s impressive.
1. Egypt will not starve for the same reason Somalia does not starve: the West (labeled as “the UN”) will not let it starve. And really we don’t want Egypt to starve because before Muslim Egypt starves they will take the bread from the Copts. Before Muslim Egypt starves, there will be genocide.
2. Turkey may not go bankrupt but it will go even more Islamic. Then the cycle will begin. Downturn, followed by more Islam. followed by more capital flight and economic failure, followed by more downturn, followed by more Islam as the “solution”. Until you hit the natural bottom where the whole muslim world lies. Islam cannot take failure and the solution is always more Islam, which leads to more failure.
Sounds like that SNL “More Cow Bell” sequence.
@13 “2. Turkey may not go bankrupt but it will go even more Islamic. Then the cycle will begin. Downturn, followed by more Islam. followed by more capital flight and economic failure, followed by more downturn, followed by more Islam as the “solution”. Until you hit the natural bottom where the whole muslim world lies. Islam cannot take failure and the solution is always more Islam, which leads to more failure.”
Notice a pattern? Islam’s apologists frequently run out the tired old rubric “Islam created…(fill in the blank)”. They forget what I call the cultural flywheel. If someone invades Spain, forces Spanish Artist, Artisans and Craftsmen to build a beautiful palace, then forces them to change their names, Islam has not created anything. The native skills are passed down a few generations or so, to sons and grandsons with Islamic names, but fades after three or four generations. Who? Byzantines, Persian, Egyptians, Albanians, on and on.
David — sounds like Isaiah chapter 19 — but at least the ending is hopeful, with the Egyptians and Assyrians worshipping the God of Israel. I’m praying for the Copts and Orthodox Christians in both Egypt and Syria. The overthrow of baby Assad is not going to be good for the Antiochians, and particularly Christian women who like to drive without wearing a burka in Damascus. But alas, one man’s Muslim Brotherhood jihadist thug is another man’s ‘freedom fighter’ — including some neocons! God help us.
The drying up of water seems symbolic of famine in the land, like the famine Joseph dealt with, while 19:2 has already been fulfilled:
Isaiah 19:2-9
but there’s hope:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvUUBg4Xmho
A bold witness for Christ — Coptic priest acts as Good Samaritan saves Muslim soldier from angry mob
Dear Mr. Goldman,
You’ve previously argued that some part of the Middle East’s problem is that they’re being outbid for food by the Chinese, etc. If China’s economy collapses, won’t that lessen the Chinese demand on world food reserves, and provide the Middle East a relative respite?
“Too bad “Londonistan Looney” won’t expand his act…he is getting boringly repetitive; and thereby limiting our chances to be creatively sarcastic (and deliberately snarky). Oh well, I believe you said something about sanity…
ta” Yeah Mr. Londonistan (and that’s Londongrad to you, chump) reminds me of Mr. La Raza Reconquista or some such who used to come around PJM forums. He shut up when I wrote back in Spanish to tell him if Mexico’s so great, why doesn’t the rest of Latin America want to go there, and how would he like it if 20 million Chinese showed up in Mexico demanding bilingual education in Mandarin?
“Mr. Londonistan (and that’s Londongrad to you, chump) reminds me of Mr. La Raza Reconquista or some such who used to come around PJM forums.”
Maybe Mr. Londonistan and Mr. La Raza are the same person.
The next Turkish action flick: ‘Valley of the Wolves: Syria’ in which five plucky Turkish special forces operatives (one with a hot Russian girlfriend he’s visiting in Antalya in the opening montage before getting the call to duty) simultaneously stop Assad from kiilling people while kicking out all Zionist agents pretending to be Muslim Brotherhood jihadis from Damascus. Peace restored, a new Erdogan friendly president takes power in Syria as the Americans and Zionists can only fume.
Notice how the Muslim Brotherhood is just hanging out? They are waiting patiently as the most organized political entity. They know they are going to dominate soon. It will be interesting to see how they try to solve the country’s problems.
For all of the challenges we face here in the States, I am grateful I don’t live in the Arab world. It is about to get much more complicated and much bloodier. The more they seek to submit, the more difficult it becomes to prosper.
But I thought getting rid of Mubarak was the greatest thing since sliced bread? Obama and Hillary Clinton said so and they both threw Mubarak under the bus. So why hasn’t everything in Egypt turned out in sunshine and roses? Because the Muslim Brotherhood is about to take over that country and, when it does, you will have Iran but without the oil. This is a disaster not in the making, but has already happened, and Egypt’s dire future can be placed right on the doorstep of Obama and Clinto. Why? Because you never get rid of a government unless you know what is going to replace it. Same thing happened with the Shah and Iran. The pro-western faction in Egypt (such as it is), is small and not well organized, certainly not as well organized when compared to the Muslim Brotherhood. So what did Obama and Clinton think would happen? And when Egypt does finally collapse, what are Obama and Clinton going to say, “Ooooops?”
Libertyship46 – Spot-on, but you omitted some on the Right who were also cheering on the overthrow of Mubarak, in particular, William Kristol. (There were probably other neo-cons do the same, but his name comes to mind first.) I wonder what he is thinking these days.
Nice false equivalence, Jack. William Kristol does not hold any office of authority. Barry and Hillary occupy the most powerful positions in the Free World. The blowback goes on them exclusively, not on some opinion-mongers sitting in the press box.
He isn’t thinking anything. He made up his mind a long time ago, has been proben wrong again and again, and is impervious to cognitive dissonance. In other words, he just repeats the same dogma over and over again, without a care as to whether it matches anything in the real world.
Thanks for repeating all the stupid stereotypes about Egypt since the revolution that people make who know nothing about the country but insist on making assertive and authoritative comments about always make.
Yeah, it’s the next Iran. Wow, nuanced to the gills.
The only ones who don’t seem to realize that Egypt’s problems, and by the way Syria’s, stem from the high price of food and high unemployment are the American State Department and President Barack Obama. What is worse is that the Obama administration seems to believe that a new “democratic” government will be better for Egypt than the former Mubarak one, and an improvement on the present military one.
I for one am not sure if anarchy in the Arab world wouldn’t be a better outcome than a new series of radical Islamic regimes modeled on Iran.
gevalt – du binst gerecht – but who will be holding the button – a mulla? I think they should get a bit of order
Israel ( a linker)
Do you guys not think it was inevitable that Mubarak was not going to fall anyway? The army had already turned against him when he tried to anoint his son the next prince.
It is actually funny that the Nasser revolution which ultimately made Mubarak has ended almost exacly like the reign of King Farouk. The difference is that then Nasser had a wealthy benefactor propping him up; the USSR. That is definitely not going to be the case for the MB.
In 2010 it was reported that Mubarak had cancer and would die soon. He indeed would have fallen away soon anyway, then.
But there is something to work out about governments and populations. In Iran we now hear that the population is getting more & more anti-Islamic and pro-American en -Democracy. The government is firmly pro-Islamic and anti-American and anti-Democratic. And it is dictatorial, it must rely only on a minority, which is oppressing and exploiting the majority of Iranians.
Thus in Iran the situation in a way is better than the situation in Egypt under Mubarak, because there the government also was dictatorial, brutal, oppressing and exploiting, while relying on a minority. But the majority of Egyptians perceived Mubarak not as enemy of America/ the West, but as ally, accomplice of them. And as they hated the government, they hated America and the West too.
In view of this; it could be an improvement if the MUBRO’s (Muslim Brotherhood) took over power and became in a short while an oppressive, exploitative, corrupt government, hating the West but hated by more & more Egyptians over time. Who then would reconsider their opinion about the West over time. Who then also would become more & more disillusioned with Islam, just as so many Iranians now.
And it could be that the Mubro’s understand this, and understand how desperate Egypt’s situation really is and that therefore they prefer to remain in the opposition. After all, the whole world can see what a mess the ayatollahs made in Iran.
The general statement that Egyptians hate America and the West is absurd. Go there before asserting such things.
I agree that the statement is absurd. There are 85 million Egyptians, including a lot of extremely talented people; one meets plenty of Egyptians with doctorates in the United States who are happy to be in the US, and one has to assume that for every 1 who had the opportunity to come here, there are 100 who were qualified. There are also many Egyptians who hate the US, and a majority who really hate Israel. None of that matters. Like or dislike, good, bad, and indifferent, Egypt is dissolving into chaos.
I respectfully question the efficacy of an air campaign. I’ve read that the Iranian population is on the brink of revolt and has a higher opinion of the American people than does the Obama Administration. If we attack, they will, like any population, rally ’round the flag.
I think it’s a race: Can we delay, through targeted attacks, assassinations, cyberwar, and economic sanctions, the day nuclear weapons become available? Presumably the chaos surrounding a widespread revolt would allow us to kill scientists and break stuff, so that the successor government (which will probably be worse) is unable to complete the program?
The Iranian population doesn’t like the regime, but they seem pretty despondent and prone to extreme social malaise. They don’t seem likely to do much of anything. Iran’s economy has one earner, namely hydrocarbons, and the mullahs control all the money, which is to say, all the guns. If subversion, etc. were a viable option, of course I would support it. But I have doubts that it would work under optimal circumstances (years of infiltration, training of prospective rebels, and so forth), and I doubt that our intelligence services have the assets in place. Hope I’m wrong.
Not to mention Iran is getting flooded with all that cheap smack from Afghanistan…a bug, or a feauture? I remember Clint Eastwood’s dope-dealing ‘Western businessman’ character in Firefox who was destroying the USSR with heroin.
“I respectfully question the efficacy of an air campaign. I’ve read that the Iranian population is on the brink of revolt and has a higher opinion of the American people than does the Obama Administration. If we attack, they will, like any population, rally ’round the flag.” Yes, though having great worldview and demographic insight, David is wrong on this one and Ron Paul is right. Bombing Iran will prove counterproductive as the mullahs will only seek to buy a Bomb from Pakistan, and the paranoid Pashtuns after seeing the Zionists/Americans attack Iran will give them one. That will defeat the whole purpose of the campaign, since Washington has already decided it won’t act against Pakistan for backing the Taliban with and supporting A.Q. Khan with impunity.
But at least David can see through the neocons sudden alliance with Qatar. The MBO’s going to take over Libya and Syria in the end, thus providing the perpetual war lobby in D.C. with another useful enemy. Spengler has been very circumspect in what he’s written about Syria’s ‘opposition’.
The comments are amusing, but Mr Goldman’s warning is not. If even 25% true, Egypt is truly on the brink of catastrophy. Tourism is down to nothing. What is the status of exports of Egyptian cotton? Since the fall of Mubarak the economy has been in free fall, nine months!
I fear not a death march across the Sinai, that is ridiculous. I fear social chaos, rampant crime, police and military brutality to quell the desperation, internecine slaughter (Christians by Muslims). With the coming of elections the hotheads will have their day, triggering the bloodbath.
Syria is not far behind, politically. I don’t know its economic status, but even if self-sufficient on food, the system will fail if a full scale civil war erupts.
Iran has a long way to go before things go really bad. I hope it will retract from the brink.
BTW I also don’t fear the sabre rattling by certain Israelis. The west is far more sophisticated today in its skills how to deal with Iranian threats.
Wanted: Acquisition opportunity, to wit:
…… are there any restless countries for sale/and/or/direction…. or lease?
Am 800 telephone number supplied if requested. Mention….”Charlie”.
The following isn’t quite so snarky when you give it some thought……why doesn’t Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Mark Zuckerberg, as the “Youth Division”, form a syndicate, or something, and buy Egypt?
Thirteen billion US dollars (….mentioned in the article as the remaining Egyptian reserves…)is a bagatelle to those three…..make these ardent young Egyptian revolutionaries an offer they shouldn’t refuse….there’s nothing in all of Islam to compare with the combined energy of those three men.
Whatever happened to that young community firebrand of the early days in Cairo who was on “leave” from Microsoft….has he become “virtual”?
Operators are standing by.
Yes, but think of the contingent liabilities. Think of B of A buying Countrywide.
Re: Financier to the rescue:
Just thought of this prescient precedent:
Look up ol’ J.P. Morgan and the United States Treasury.
Geither would? (wouldn’t?) be horrified.
Reply to an Egyptian invasion of the Sinai: I don’t believe it will be physically possible for such a horde (millions+) to cross the desert (one of the driest on Earth)without substantial supplies- primarily water. The attempted Egyptian military invasion of 1967 foundered when convoys were attacked cutting supply lines. You wouldn’t have to kill too many invaders; just block their advance and let them pile up as you destroy their logistics- thus depriving them of food and water. Nature will do the rest.
There was no attempted invasion of Israel in 1967 by Egypt. Israel responded to threats and the announced closing of the Straits of Tiran with a pre-emptive strike against Egyptian airfields, decimating the Egyptian air force. Israel invaded Gaza, not the other way around.
Egyptian forces were mostly echeloned in depth in the Sinai in a defensive posture and not massed on Israel’s border.
Whether Israel had legitimate reasons to do such things is another story. After all, some people take threats and military manueverings, albeit within the confines of their own sovereign territory, seriously. In retrospect, it would’ve been better for Nasser to shut his mouth and stop posturing.
Here’s the summation sentence, pasted from Mr Goldman’s excellent article just above….
…”We cannot fix the Middle East.”
I have been saying that….and…..saying that…..and….saying exactly that ever since I discovered Pajamas Media and the M.E. coverage here.
The most infuriating aspect of the middle east is that the U.S. will time and again act in the interests of those vile, despicable Saudi’s. That is where our real problems lie.
One thing that the Arab Spring uprisings help to clarify is which of two often repeated statements are true
1. Only a small fraction of Muslims are extremists that want to kill all the infidels
2. If democracy comes to the Middle East we will see more extremists governments
They are pretty contradictory right?
Not at all; driven people are often extremely proactive. How can a guy who just wants to live a normal life compete with or constrain people who crave power and therefore find themselves in positions to satisfy such cravings?
As far as Democracy being an incubator of extremist gov’ts, look at Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq; they certainly didn’t need to or wait for a vote to put them in power.
To the contrary, if a group needs votes to put them in power, it isn’t that much to begin with. People often mention Gaza as the paradigm of one-vote-one-time but that’s a small state with a unique situation. There is little need to project that onto the rest of the middle east just to seem wise.
When democracy came to the Palestinians, we got One Man, One Vote, Once, and Hamas in power. (They continue to hold elections, but do not permit opposition)
When democracy came to Iran, we got One Man, One Vote, Once, and Ayatollahs in power. (They continue to hold elections, but do not permit opposition)
When the army permitted the Islamists to win in Turkey, those who opposed Islamism were soon in jail. Future elections will have no real opposition.
When democracy came to Algeria, the winning party’s platform was that they would kill everyone that was insufficiently Islamic, and no one was sufficiently Islamic. Bloody civil war ensued. Fortunately, after much bloodshed, the democratically elected party lost.
Can anyone nominate an Islamic democracy that did not turn out badly? Iraq is doing OK so long as occupied by US troops, which occupation is ending. Afghanistan is behaving badly even though occupied by US troops.
No Muslim, anywhere in the world, should be allowed to vote. Those that attempt to vote, should be killed.
James,
I am a very left very Zionist Israeli. Of course u are right – democracy is a system not a religion. Definitely not a good one. Just about every war on this planet seems, in the last 30 years, to involve Muslims. Someone would tell me of a war in blugiblustan , I would ask muslims? they would say of course.
Of course i don’t see an alternative – but your last sentence indeed made me laugh and cheered me up a bit – israeli from the upper galili (ie closer to hezbollah than tel aviv)
hazak ve’ematz (strength and courage)
warm regards – trust us – everything will be under control – sooner than you think
I sent your letter all over the country – especially my daughter
The Zionist entity is not long for this world. Its destruction is imminent, Insha’Allah. The Zionist occupiers will be driven out of Palestine and into the sea by the Ummah that surrounds them. We are 300+ million in the Middle East surrounding the tiny Zionist state of less than 6 million Jews. In the Middle East you are outnumbered by more than 50 to 1. Demography is destiny. We will swallow you dirty Zionists up and spit you out into the sea. The end of the fake illegitimate Zionist regime is near. We will liberate Al-Quds from the Zionist occupier. The pathetic Zionist entity is drowning in the sea of the Islamic Great Awakening.
Allah is on our side. Our victory is inevitable. The Jihad and the Sharia are unstoppable! Allahu Akbar! Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Koran is our law. Jihad [holy war] is our way. Dying for the sake of Allah is our highest hope. Jihad is our path, Prophet Mohamed is our leader, and the Quran our constitution.
The calculus is 300 megatons vs 60 targets.
ANY serious outbreak of jihad will be met with such counter-force that it’s ugly to think about.
Read Wretchard’s Three Conjectures. ( Google is your friend. )
Britain, America, Russia, China and India have ALWAYS started off their war campaigns on the wrong foot.
No matter.
Their immense resources and defenses permit them to entirely re-jigger their militaries — ultimately destroying ‘first-mover’ powers.
Of these powers America is by far the most feared. She is both a continental power, hemispheric power, full-span oceanic hegemon, and an island power of unmatched advantage.
Enraged Japan struck America many decades ago. Her ideology was astoundingly similar to islamism.
For her troubles, Japan discovered that within eight months victory was hopelessly out of reach — with battlefront commanders lying to the national leadership WRT their dire situation.
As for the noble populace: until the very last minute they were treated like mushrooms. ( Kept in the dark and fed horse manure. )
The ummah has NO ECONOMIC POWER in the face of Western objection.
That’s the lesson of the Duck of Death — the emir of Libya.
His vast military arsenal bought him kinetic lead poisoning.
The MENA must crash upon the Malthusian constraint.
Peak islam is at hand.
one problem with your argument – u haven’t met my idf sons – both combat captains
300million arabs against 6 million hi tech jews – give me a break
To the Islamist in Londonistan
Having lived in the largest muslim country in the world, I have learned to have as much esteem for your religion and its resultant reduction of people to the lowest common denominator on the planet as one does for fleas. As fleas vastly outnumber elephants, they can make the same claims you do over the Israelis, but the worth of fleas and elephants is obviously incomparable. When the fleas of the middle east are exterminated, or the remaining ones are found under elephant piles, perhaps you’ll have a clearer understanding of their moral worth in vast scheme of things that encompasses other things, like the universe. Go back to riding your flea infested camel, say?
Anyone who thinks we are going to do anything about a Nuclear Iran as long as “Lead from behind” Obama is in charge is delusional.
With that said, I am rather optimistic about cultural growth in the Islamic world. Tyrants are falling, and while the Moslem Brotherhood types are trying to fill the power vacuum, I think the cultures are inspired by and aspire to Purple fingers raised aloft.
When a superior culture meets an inferior culture, the inferior culture is forced to adapt. The seed of American Culture placed in Iraq in the middle of Islamoland, is now bearing fruit with the Arab Spring. Islamoland saw the violence, lack of utilities, and grinding hopelessness in Iraq, replaced by American Culture with elections, hung Tyrants, growth, and hope. And now they want the same thing to happen to them.
Jacksonian Libertarian,
There was a time long ago when I hoped that what you said might be true. Experience in Iraq and much reading has convinced me otherwise. When a failed culture faced with exposure to a successful outside culture there are generally just a few possible outcomes. War, loss of cultural confidence and change of religion to the successful culture’s religion and cultural suicide which in the Islamist sense is indistinguishable from the first option.
The real horrifying prospect is that Islam truly has nothing to offer the world except its excess stomachs which is in the process of a long correction. Islam for the most part has learned nothing except to mimic the West’s worst political ideas and turn its mundane technologies into weapons. To be used against the creators of that technology.