Saudi Ascendancy After Arab Spring
The Saudis suddenly have enormous leverage over Muslim states that can’t pay their bills. Turkey is in serious financial trouble, with a current-account deficit equal to 10% of GDP, the same level as Greece or Portugal. Turkey is in no danger of national bankruptcy, but it is in danger of a sever austerity program to correct the imbalance which might expose Tayyip Erdogan as a borrow-and-bully Third World populist tyrant. Is Saudi influence at work in the collapse of Turkey’s romance with Iran? That’s hard to confirm, but the fact is that the Turks (who financed 85% of their currnet account deficit on short-term money markets) need the Saudis more than ever.
As Tony Badran observes in Foreign Affairs, the Obama administration’s hope of outsourcing Levant policy to Turkey has sunk (we might say that the Good Ship Obama has lost its Ankara). It is hard to make sense of what Erdogan is up to; his latest bombing campaign against Kurds in Iraq suggests fear that the Syrian problem might spill over into Turkey itself. But I hesitate to guess at this juncture. Erdogan is a shrewd Anatolian peasant whose response to pressure is to confuse pursuers by contradictory actions.
We do not know what role the Saudis are playing in Turkish politics, but it seems clear that whatever Riyadh does is directed towards closing Sunni ranks against Iran. The good news is that Iran faces serious opposition; the bad news is that the feckless gang in Washington is barely a spectator in these events.
Syria seems to be ground zero for whatever’s on the menu for September according to R.Kahlili
It’s not hard to see Iran won’t take a back seat to the Saudi’s machinations and they are stoking the fire in Gaza and soon on Israel’s northern border.
Could WW III be far off ?
I don’t think China and Russia will sit this one out as they did America’s last 3 adventures in the camel land.
Buckle up and get your radiation repellent out.
Now that it has “lost its Ankara”, what ill winds are blowing it and are rocks close at hand?
It seems to me that Islam is simply rearranging the deck chairs…this tyrant for that monarch etc. I believe this will continue 1. As long as the money flows (oil, that is) and 2. The Islamic narrative remains unchanged/ challenged. The final answer is a fundamental change in the narrative. For example:
Islam was high jacked when Mohamed made the trip from Mecca to Medina. He was killed/ captured (pick one) and replace by a doppelganger. The impostor, a priest of the desert goddess Allah, and his minions modified the Koran and invented sharia law in order to maintain their positions of power. Thus original Islam (Islam al Mecca) was taken over by the evil Islam al Medina, the most prominent form today.
You can fill in the rest of the story to suit.
Just saying.
The Saudi’s always have the most organized end-game. I don’t trust them but sure have to tip my hat to ‘em for making the best moves for their outcome at just the proper time. Would that we might ever have an administration capable of doing the same. We might want to start by not thinking so highly of our own brainpower. Would S ever have a place in a future administration?
I’m the 3rd commenter on this post. By this time next year this blog will be jam packed with comments. Mark my works.
Spengler, I’m a fan for many years now, (atimes.com and firstthings.com).
I’m waiting for the entire ME to blow up. My biggest fear is that the rank and file islamist leaning morons will believe that Israel is the cause of the failure of the Arab Spring to bring about change and jobs. I believe there is no hope for islam (islamsfatalflaw.com) and these robots will rally around any influential leader that tells them that it is Israel behind all Islams failures.
Obama is a midget compared to the events unfolding right before our eyes. Where are America’s leaders. Don’t we have any Roman Consuls who are up to the task?
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia ought to pick up all the tabs from these muslim states that cannot survive without Western aid. If our leaders weren’t so ignorant, they’d know that every Western penny sent to muslim states is, one way or another, financing our destruction at the hands of black-cube worshippers. And that should be good enough a reason to quit such madness once and for all. Let the Umma fund its own jihad.
So right!
http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/07/editors-of-arab-dailies-assess-war.html
The American policy of appeasing the Saudis started long before Obama, but he has “achieved” new lows in that regard. Muslims don’t respect appeasers. They simply pocket the concessions and demand more. They do respect a show of strength, and it had better not be an empty show – it must be backed up with deeds and it must never, never be followed by an apology to anyone.
Despite Obama’s obvious sympathies for Islamic expansionism, the man is just downright stupid. He cannot comprehend the fact that Islamic countries will never be friends with a predominantly non-Muslim America, no matter what he himself does.
Suni-Shia conflict is a blessing for the free world and needs to be encouraged.
“we might say that the Good Ship Obama has lost its Ankara”
OK, how long have you been waiting to use this?
There seems to be misunderstanding regarding the House of Saud;
The United States Petro Dollar system, which is the foundation for US economy since 1971, is based on Saudi Arabian Petroleum production. The Bank called citi-solutions in New York is the liquid petroleum fund pool, in the hundreds of billions of dollars that move in and out of the NYSE and COMEX daily.
The US has been economically impotent since 1971, the movers and shakers in the world have the US over an Oil barrel and whatever the House of Saud decides to do, the US can say nothing as the House of Saud alone supports the US dollar on world markets.
When the House of Saud gives money to any group in US dollars, it is from this Petro Dollar system that is comes from, which is funded by US taxpayer and petroleum revenue streams.
Enjoy the view, your paying for it.
Syria sizzles, but it ain’t bacon!
http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/08/what-is-in-syria-that-keeps-obama-quiet.html
I can see some good things coming out of Saudis leading a Sunni opposition to Shia Iran. Relieves the US of some burdens although it takes some control out of the hands of our Administration. It should also make the House of Saud more appreciative of what military support we do provide.
It also means increased proliferation pressures. First Pakistan, then Iran, soon Saudi Arabia.
Nuclear war is always ugly but less so at a distance. And frankly, what difference do ME city dwellers make to world current or economic events? What do they export or contribute that is positive?
They are a sink, not a source, of civilization.
It would be helpful if the Saudis built a pipeline along the Sinai border and turned Gaza into an oil refinery/export ‘colony’. Pay Egypt to keep it secure.
One way for the Saudis to develop a cold peace with Israel while containing Hamas and securing the Sinai.
I thought the Saudis already “bought” Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and labor force.
The real question for Turkey is what will the Kurds do?
So would it be helpful to covertly fund Turkey keeping them strong enough for them Iran and Saudi Arabia to engage in a barrage a trois?
Do the Saudis have the urge for hegemony as much as Turkey and Iran?
Saudi being able to influence the outcome in the mid east and still have this animus towards Israel; it seems they feel that Israel can be taken out. Israel is our friend, Saudi and all its barbarian cohorts will be no match when a confrontation flares. It may be that Saudi will send funds openly or surreptitiously but having nothing else; when the stuff starts flying it may occur that all of a sudden all electronic networks will be for some reason shut down. Won’t even be able to use the phone. Indeed very possible.
In March 2011 a retired Suadi commodore published the following piece, “What if Arabs had recognized the State of Israel in 1948?” (http://arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article322715.ece), it occurred to me that it was part of an approved KSA information operation to align their security policy more closely with that of Israel and stick a spoke in Iran’s wheel.
Spengler – Have you seen this piece or heard of the author, Abdulateef Al-Mulhim, Commodore (Retd.), Royal Saudi Navy? He’s also written a few other iconoclastic pieces.