http://pjmedia.com/ronradosh/2008/12/26/the-options-on-the-iranian-bomb/ Just another Pajamasmedia.com weblog Wed, 15 Feb 2012 18:39:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 http://pjmedia.com/ronradosh/2008/12/26/the-options-on-the-iranian-bomb/#comment-1158 swingin Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:26:47 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/ronradosh/?p=353#comment-1158 I agree with Muravchik. The difficulty of the Iran situation is the chronology. Evidently their progress is accelerating. As is well-known, the major difficulty of nuclear weapon production is weaponizing the uranium or creating plutonium. According to media reports, they have mastered the process and are simply awaiting its results. Iran could have a bomb within 1 year. Presumably they can buy or otherwise obtain useful warhead technology, and have already done so. Are we to invest our hopes in a revolution? It seems an overly optimistic strategy to me. Solidarity took over a decade to work. There are some signs that suggest that it was in fact a secret police operation, or in any case *allowed* to run its course in conjunction with a faltering Soviet empire. There is no such dynamic at work in Iran. I am not one who presumes Iran will immediately launch against Israel. I believe Iranian nuclear technology is insurance against which to leverage an ever greater strategy of covert aggression against Israel and the West. Nuclear technology is first a foremost a defensive technology. But at the present rate of escalation, to which Iranian already disproportionately contributes, can we really wait to see whether the revolution emerges in time to implode the current Islamic Revolutionary junta? I just don't understand why anyone would sincerely in their heart-of-hearts believe so. There is no reasonable conclusion other than that Iran is, unfortunately, a military problem. I agree with Muravchik. The difficulty of the Iran situation is the chronology. Evidently their progress is accelerating. As is well-known, the major difficulty of nuclear weapon production is weaponizing the uranium or creating plutonium. According to media reports, they have mastered the process and are simply awaiting its results. Iran could have a bomb within 1 year. Presumably they can buy or otherwise obtain useful warhead technology, and have already done so. Are we to invest our hopes in a revolution? It seems an overly optimistic strategy to me. Solidarity took over a decade to work. There are some signs that suggest that it was in fact a secret police operation, or in any case *allowed* to run its course in conjunction with a faltering Soviet empire. There is no such dynamic at work in Iran. I am not one who presumes Iran will immediately launch against Israel. I believe Iranian nuclear technology is insurance against which to leverage an ever greater strategy of covert aggression against Israel and the West. Nuclear technology is first a foremost a defensive technology. But at the present rate of escalation, to which Iranian already disproportionately contributes, can we really wait to see whether the revolution emerges in time to implode the current Islamic Revolutionary junta? I just don’t understand why anyone would sincerely in their heart-of-hearts believe so. There is no reasonable conclusion other than that Iran is, unfortunately, a military problem.

]]> http://pjmedia.com/ronradosh/2008/12/26/the-options-on-the-iranian-bomb/#comment-1152 Joshua Muravchik Fri, 26 Dec 2008 22:21:56 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/ronradosh/?p=353#comment-1152 The US can "proudly and openly" give aid to Iranian dissidents, but are there any who will take it, which almost surely would mean arrest and torture? Under communism, US government aid to Solidarity was covert--and much of it was diverted by secret police agents who had infiltrated. The US can “proudly and openly” give aid to Iranian dissidents, but are there any who will take it, which almost surely would mean arrest and torture? Under communism, US government aid to Solidarity was covert–and much of it was diverted by secret police agents who had infiltrated.

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