Les,

The Swiftvets can only advertise for about two more weeks. The story appears to be reaching a crescendo that will culminate in the next 5-7 days. You bet there’s going to be a number of Swiftvets hit with ugly stories. They know it and have proceeded anyway. After the wave breaks there will be plenty of time to dissect Kerry’s rather sparse career subsequent to Vietnam.

The reality is that this story has already achieved its tactical objective. The Kerry campaign’s (and his own) weaknesses have been exposed, there’s blood in the water, and the campaign is being forced to spend money that it needs for use down the road. I haven’t read how much will be spent on the countering ads but I do know that every dollar spent in August is a dollar they won’t have in October.

Meanwhile, W’s campaign continues to work the message mix, continues to test ads and continues to gain ground. He may have a 2 point bounce coming into the convention. The RCP 3 way polling average has shown Kerry up by 1.7 for about a month. In the last few days it’s moved to a .7 Kerry advantage. I’m looking forward to Mondays average.