I think we all need a little perspective here.

The Kerry Campaign has been stuck in neutral for the past month. Let’s tally all this summer’s negative news for Kerry: Joe Wilson exposed as a liar; Dick Clarke, ditto; Sandy Burgler; Senate Intel Report providing loads of ammo for going to war; 9/11 Commission Report fails to blame Bush; new Al Qaeda warnings; handover of sovereignty in Iraq; improving security situation in Iraq; consumer confidence up; jobless numbers down; and a negative bounce from Democratic convention.

Against all this we have higher oil prices (partly seasonal, partly ME-related, partly Russia-related); two weak payroll reports; and two interest rate hikes. In the background on the negative side we also have the Plame affair.

In the background on the positive side we have a possible major arrest/sting operation in the WoT, likely strong August payroll numbers, possible new WMD finds and the GOP convention. Oh, and Michael Moore Hates America is supposed to air this fall (before the election I assume).

Unknown unknowns, as Rummy says, include the potential for a major terrorist attack and a spike in violence in Iraq.

In this context, the Swift Boat Vets matter is a free shot. It was an unexpected positive surprise (at least to most of us). If it knocks Kerry out, great. If not, it may still have a large cumulative impact on the marginal voters. At a minimum, as DtP pointed out when the story first broke, it will keep Kerry on his heels when he should be charging ahead.

So relax, everybody. There is more likelihood of good news for Bush to come than the reverse.