this is good—
Why the Odds Don’t Favor John Kerry
By Allan Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok
Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American University. Vladimir Keilis-Borok is a world-renowned authority on prediction methodology, and a Professor in Residence at UCLA.
John Kerry can hope to shorten the long odds he faces against President Bush only with a bold, imaginative approach to winning the election.
This challenging conclusion for Kerry comes from the Keys to the White House, a prediction system we developed in 1981 by applying the mathematics of pattern recognition to the outcomes of every presidential election since 1860. We subsequently used the Keys to predict correctly, well ahead of time, the popular vote results of presidential elections from 1984 to 2000.
What are the odds Kerry will come up with a bold, imaginative approacah to winning the election?
http://hnn.us/articles/6599.html
