At this point I think it is a race to see which will happen first: whether the story will run out of steam and die in the blogosphere, or whether it will break through critical mass and become the stuff of watercooler conversations. If it is the latter then I think it might end up hurting Kerry, if for no other reason than it makes him out to be both at once a ridiculous and a pathetic individual.

Having said that, I don’t think the election will ultimately turn on it. Rather, the election will most likely be decided by events of which neither candidate will have much control over: if there are terrorists attacks in Greece during the Olympics and here at home before the election, if the economy either goes south or rebounds again during the next couple of months, and if something dramatic happens in Iraq, like the capture of Zaqr or, conversely, if the insurgency escalates to disastrous levels. And other stuff, like bin Laden being captured, or actual honest to God stockpiles of sarin gas shells being found buried in a bunker in the desert.

To a lesser extent, Bush might be able to give himself a boost if he gives a kickass speech, on the order of his post 9/11 speech, at the convention, and either candidate could always screw up enough during the debates to tilt the swing and wobbly voters.