jerry and Catherine have it, I think, exactly wrong. The months-long media assault on Bush hasn’t undermined people’s bottom-line sense of him, but has made them sufficiently confused not to poll for him at the moment. It’s like the trajectory of OIF support before we launched: very high when first put on the table, dropping down to around 50% during the UN quagmire/media assault, and back up near two-thirds on the eve of the event, after Bush had made his case. In their gut, the electorate knows that Bush’s tough course is right. They’ll flirt with Kerry early — pretending we’re in an easy world is fun, less stressful — but vote for Bush when push comes to shove. It takes an effort of will to resist MSM bullshit, which is why Bush has let the electorate tune out and will only prod them to their responsibilities come September (when he won’t be the only thing waking folks up). But then he’ll succeed: because not only right but the facts (good progress in Iraq, excellent economy) are on his side. And because Kerry is a terrible, terrible candidate.

As for why Kerry doesn’t go all isolationist, he can’t. The indispensable part of his coalition is the elite MSM, which is religiously tied to internationalism. He -could- have forged a coalition without the NYT, etc, but them backing out now would be fatal.