Rick B.–

The crucial factor in Gore’s near-election was heavy black voter turnout due not to the nominee’s appeal, but a sense of gratitude towards Bill Clinton.

Kerry has an aloofness and anti-religious feel about him that I think will not serve him well in galvanizing this portion of the electorate. The states with large urban centers that could be thrown into the Bush column by poor black turnout are also the same battleground states everyone talks about: Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Missouri. Whether blacks show up to the polls will largely determine whether the election is a nail-biter or a 40-state Bush blowout.

The polls, as usual, are unreliable when turnout is such a critical factor.