I think they’re manipulating the polls right now like there’s no tomorrow. For instance, Monday’s ABC poll has Kerry leading Bush 49 to 47 among likely voters (with Nader getting 2). However when you look at the breakdown of the party affiliation of those interviewed, it’s 39% Democrats, 29% Republicans and 21% independents. They’ve obviously so weighted their polling to favor Kerry that it has become meaningless.

Having said that, I do think it will be a very close election, unless there’s an underground shift going on that the polls aren’t picking up on, which is definitely possible. I remember one gubernatorial election here in California in the ’80s between Dukmegian (sp?) and the Democratic candidate Tom Bradley, the African American mayor of LA. In the polls leading up to the election Bradley was leading by double didgits, and even the exit polling showed him winning handily. But when the votes were actually counted it was a solid victory for Dukmegian. Everyone was at a loss to explain how the polls could have been so far off. My own theory was that people had simply lied to the pollsters, because they were afraid if they said they weren’t voting for Bradley they would be perceived as racist, even through in most cases race had nothing to do with their choice. And, since it was easier to lie than to justify their vote, they lied. Or rather enough lied that it threw off the polls.

On the other hand, if there is a terrorist attack this fall, all bets are off.