Sarah’s the welded-on candidate for tea-partiers, no doubt about it.

But will most republicans want to vote for her? Hmm. She’d have to put on a much better effort than she did last time around. 4 years of being coached and hitting the books might actually get her up to speed, but she’s still divisive. Democrats would have rallied around hillary or obama – that’s what it’s going to take to get a republican into the white house against an incumbent (assuming he doesn’t seriously screw up, which he’s unlikely to do). Palin can’t even get support from the serious conservatives on fox – and she’s practically fox’s staff candidate. What will she do if the krauthammers and kristols undermine her as a lightweight? Or o’reilly, for that matter. Just turn on them with one of her facebook bon mots? Stick targets on them and hope for the best?

Palin isn’t going to be president. It’s just not a credible scenario. She has to get overwhelming support from conservatives to even have a chance, and conservatives are, by their very nature, conservative – and she’s risky. If she waits long enough, and assuming obama doesn’t hand the keys to clinton, she might have a clear run against an unknown … but by then she’s not going to inspire the same religious fervor any more.

In any case, she’s making a bucket of money NOT being president, and she doesn’t have to be accountable to anyone. She doesn’t even have to fight her own battles. Don’t be too shocked if she never nominates (heck – I wouldn’t). It’ll be the liberal media’s fault, of course. You can bank on that.