Sean Trende @ Jay Cost have it right. Demographics will play against Obama. He’s lost whites by enough of a margin that it will be difficult for him (or the Dems) to come back. That’s the game. He broke trust with them and too many have been turned off. Clinton got back in because frankly the stakes weren’t very high. Now the margin’s run out and people will be looking at another four years of the same… there might be marginal improvement in the economy but nothing dramatic enough to give much hope, assuming the statist policies continue.

Don’t focus on the Republican candidates at this stage– all that drama emerges as the race starts in earnest. Suddenly you’ll have leadership flowing from every pore, unexpected oments on the trail, etc…. The big correctional dynamics are in place. I’ll take the over/under at Repubs winning 295 in EC and a pop vote margin of 53%. Insert cadidate of your choice, as vetted by the process.