Way too pat by a long shot. Obama’s reelection depends on whether there are enough voters out there that want him to change enough so that they can vote for him again. My guess is that there are fewer of these people now than there were in 2008 when people were looking for reasons to vote for him and not just against Bush. You’re right, though, in saying that Obama has a lot of things at his disposal to help him over the next two years.

But, despite (possibly bogus) poll numbers to the contrary, most likely voters probably see Obama as a mistake. These people just wanted a good manager at the helm that he promised them he would be. Obama not only lied about that but stubbornly dug in his ideological heels for too long—and has he really ever sobered up? The ‘reluctant’ voters he is depending on would more likely believe in the latest conspiracy theory than an Obama makeover.