I won’t bet to heavily on Obama’s election one way or another at this point. All other things being equal, he is likely to win reelection for exactly the reasons you lay out. However, November 2012 is a very, very long way away. I can think of any number of scenarios that would be huge game changers.

A full-on sovereign debt crisis, a return of recession deep enough that the media can’t deny it, a major terrorist attack, a foreign crisis on the order of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the list goes on and on.

Let’s not make any plans one way or another at this point….