Roger: I agree with the thrust of the argument you make. It does behoove us all to keep checking the electoral vote tally and trends therein http://www.electoral-vote.com/ .While I think the debate performance(s) may move some voters, the work done in the battleground states is probably where the payoff is. In those fora, I think Bush will probably do better than Kerry–none of which is to say, the President has to do better in the coming debates.