Not only does this new policy significantly increase the likelihood of an attack on the United States (or on our European nominal allies), but I suspect it greatly increases the likelihood of a nuclear war in the Middle East: this Israelis are increasingly unable to prevent the Iranians from building nuclear weapons and delivering them. At this point, an Israeli conventional strike would almost certainly be marginally successful at best. Only an American conventional strike could work, and we know that won’t happen under Bambi.

So, what’s Israel to do? Will the Israelis really wait for an Iranian first strike? They might, but the instant the Israelis detect an Iranian missile in the air towards them, I would put my bets on their using those 5 minutes or so of warning to launch a full scale nuclear response. Or, the Israelis might take the view that, having been passive in the face of genocide once, if it’s “us or them” they’d rather be quite sure “them” does the dying, and launch a preemptive nuclear strike that will really put paid to the Iranian nuclear project, its government, and a substantial chunk of its military capability.

My own pessimistic view is that we will see a nuclear exchange, or at least a nuclear strike, in the Middle East before the end of Bambi’s first term.