Jamie,

I haven’t thought much about the electoral vote side. I do believe that the battleground is down to six or at most eight states now. People keep focusing on the Gore vote in ’00 and ignoring the ’02 election. I believe that the ’02 election was historical in nature and perhaps moreso than the ’04 election will be. The ’02 documented the 5% Republican shift and may have understated it. Many pundits put states that Gore won by more than 10% in the “safe” column. I don’t believe that to be true. I also don’t believe that most polling is reflecting that 5% shift at all. Using out of date sample weighting allows a false perception to be widely dissemninated. If you shift the sample by 5% suddenly you have a different electoral map. I really don’t have a feel for the Dem stay at home yet. Kerry has inspired the lowest level of loyalty that I’ve seen so it is very hard to judge where this will wind up.

Watch the campaigns, if Kerry starts spending time in NJ and/or CA then we could see W over 400 on Nov. 2.

I’ll look over the splits while you’re “fishing” (be sure that you buy the freshest “evidence” available before you head home). If you forget to cash all your chips, just throw them away, it’s safer.