The EUros are of little help to us with Iran. In fact, they’re more useful to the mullahs, who can play them off against us.
If we are to successfully contain Iran, and prevent WMD from seeping out of that candy store to Iran’s north that is the former Soviet Union, then of course the crucial nation for us is Russia.
It’s helpful to think of Russia as like Pakistan in this sense: a neighboring, very powerful, nuclear-armed state in which large elements of the security forces are deeply hostile to the US and over which the putative strongman barely rules. As with Musharraf, we need a full-court diplomatic press to get Putin on our side, immediately.
Spend whatever it takes– $10 billion to wean Russia’s nuclear industry off of Iran? No problem. Joint military exercises in Pankisi Gorge? Let’s talk about it. Increasing tenfold the nuke nonproliferation program budget for Russian scientists? Done.
The other crucial nation is of course India, which has long had decent relations with Iran. Again, bribery, bullying, patient but diligent diplomacy, but get the job done. Do what it takes to get India and Russia on your side.
Who will be better at this, Bush or Kerry? It’s pretty obvious that Bush’s people, when Bush wants them to, are remarkably adept at diplomacy in that region. Note how Armitage and Powell transformed the US relationship with India-Pakistan into a real honest broker relationship that brings very tangible benefits to us, the Indians and Musharraf both. They can do so again with Putin if they set their minds to it.
As to Kerry, he and his Europhiles (Daalder, Holbrooke et al) seem to me to be too far behind the curve– they still think Europe’s the center of the universe. They’d probably waste countless cycles with Straw and the other EU jokers, as they did over Bosnia, instead of bypassing these clowns and going East, toward the crucial nations that truly can help or harm us.
Asian Century now, Americans. Russia, India, China
(and of course Turkey, Israel and Japan) are the crucial nations for us, not France and Germany.
