Terrye

In reality it has to do with the weight they give to Party affiliation. For instance in 2000 Democrats had a 4% advantage in Party registration among likely voters. If for instance Zogby uses that model then he could be off because I believe there has been a shift to the Republicans, despite the MSM’s talk of Kerry taking on ex-Bush supporters. Over playing that shift could cause a reverse inconsistency in the numbers. In truth the tricky part of polling is getting accurate representations of party affiliation. Therein I would bet lay the possible variations. One thing is clear there has been a shift to Bush’s favor of at least 3-5 points in my opinion. Things will tighten up a bit and I believe mostly stay under the radar until the last few days of the campaign unless of course monstrous scandals metastasize. (The debates being an exception).