ambisinistral

First, I did not take you as being snotty at all. I hate arguing about things one agrees on, I do that with my brother all the time, but I must say concerning…

the Bush campaign just spent a Convention successfully focused on security not abortion. I’m imagine he calculates his base will vote for him this election and that the largest group of new voters he can garner are the moderates unhappy with Kerry’s weakness. If he pushes the Right’s social agenda too much he risks driving some of those moderates back into the Kerry camp.

If it is he who pushes the right agenda you are correct. However, if he does so by responding to an attack defending such agenda, most swing voters will not hold that against him, some might. Remember Dubya is known to be an incredible poker player. That he is a risk taker and a gambler should be obvious. He will instintively weigh the gains and move forward. I have predicted long before even when he was down that he would probably out perform his mid-term successes and again be under-estimated.

Also one important item to point out. An energized base voter trumps a swing voter by a mile. If Bush could energize his base risking 2 vote gains from his base compared to one loss from a swing voter he would be a fool not to. The reason is the lost swing voter has a higher percentage of “just sitting this one out”. Once elected the base voter is less likely to abandon him. There is also many more base voters to get then swing voters to lose. Bush is smart he knows this, yet he wants it all and I believe he will split the difference perfectly, this guy is shrewed and learns. First energize base, Second register new voters, Third go after independents. That is the order of importance.