ambisinistral

First, before I respond I must ask. What do you base your statements and predictions on? I must politely add that I would have preferred you to address my posts more specifically because I feel as if you somewhat spoke past what I said and really addressed a completely different point all together.

Secondly, I am Jewish and pro-choice. I am definitely not speaking out of self interest to say the least on this issue but from experience. The link I left if you followed it is pertinent in any election, especially if the issue comes forth in high drama. It does and will cut against the Democrats especially in the Mid-West if the Democrats make an issue of this. The fact is it only would hurt him in states he would not carry anyway, if it hurts him at all, my guess is it would not hurt him much, unless his credibility gap grows to Kerryesque proportions, but that would require two things…

First it would require him to be a total hypocrite and fruad incapable of factually defending himself.

Second he would need to be as personally deficient as Kerry in fighting back. On both counts I doubt it to be the case.

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So I will address why you are right and wrong, and why you completely missed my point…

If the Kerry camp floated a rumor about abortion and Bush spent any significant time on it he would be a stupid as Kerry refighting the Vietnam War. This election is no more a mandate on abortion than it is a mandate on Vietnam. It is about the WoT.

Let me stop here and say you actually made my point for me. It is not about Vietnam or Abortion yet we in fact know that it will still changes voters opinions and you readily acknowledge this. Vietnam should not be central yet it is and is effecting the race much to Kerry’s detriment. My question to you is by what evidence do you have that it would cut against Bush? With that evidence dynamics need to exist to make it that way need to be addressed.

I’ll also ask why should Vietnam cut against Kerry? In truth it shouldn’t at all. If Kerry were a true Patriot who acted out of good faith then the Swift Boats would be absolutely killing Bush politically and not Kerry, yet they hurt Kerry. It is because of Kerry and not because of the Vietnam issue.

Why would it be stupid for Bush? In truth it was not stupid for Kerry to fight back at all. What is stupid is that Kerry is incapable of fighting back because he has a severe character deficit on the issue, that is what his true problem is. But the most stupid thing is that it is Kerry who introduced Vietnam into the campaign, if it had been someone else then Kerry might have some moral highground, so let me go back to what I actually said, my exact words…

I will further say, if Bush brought up Abortion out of nowhere and started beating up people with it, he would properly be painted as hard, divisive and lose more then he would gain… If on the other hand he is attacked on this issue, an issue Kerry can carry no water with either, then those very same Reagan Democrat Mid Westerners I had talked about will come to his defense… I would bet a million dollars on that and start spending it in advance… In his own defense, Bush would be given every right in the minds of people to come back swinging in ways they never would had he been the instigator, and trust me it would be to his benefit.

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What I said above is an important qualifier. So you in my opinion, generically applied value to both sides, yet that would be impossible if one made it central (Kerry and Vietnam) and one didn’t (Bush on Abortion). Character deficit is in truth the issue and not Abortion or Vietnam. But the character issue allows vehicles for rippling the water with multiple issues. Abortion as a topic if introduced by his enemies would unnecessarily add fodder and to Bush’s favor in an area of the country that has more registered Democrats, but are more Pro-Life voters (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio, Iowa).

Why shouldn’t Bush knock them on their ass for pulling such a dirty sucker punch? Bush did not sucker punch anyone, Kerry was blindsided by fellow vets he had offended and betrayed. Kerry brought up Vietnam. DId Bush make an issue of Abortion? And I must address the following…

We know what the right and the left think about abortion. The center is for the most part content with the compromises that have been forged regarding the issue.

Center has nothing to do with it. The term Battleground State does not = Centrist State. The term swing voter does not = Centrist. A swing voter could be a single issue voter who is passionately behind an issue like the WOT. Bush is not going to lose me or Ed Koch by responding to an Abortion attack. It is how issues cut that favor one Party over another with swing voters.

I have been involved in many campaigns, done much polling and I have a Brother-in-Law that does it for a living. This is not about the political center, it is about the intensity of issues. To many Pro-Lifers abortion is a War on Terror, peak those sentiments is to play to the hands of Bush. My characterizations of the Mid-West is accurate I assure you.

Also when I say Bush would make him pay it does not mean Bush would go hog-wild with it as an issue. Has he done it with the Swift Boats? No as he did with that issue he would just smartly put himself in a position to take advantage. What you said is much too simplistic to be used to reject out of hand a topic I addressed with so much specificity.