Outside of Poland and the Anglosphere, the only really solid and enduring support we can count on against the jihadists will come from those nations that perceive a clear convergence of interests with us as regards making war against the jihadists AND that can actually help us with real, hard assets in the region:- humint, bases, men materiel and a willingness to use them.
The simple, brutal fact of the matter is that, aside from the UK and Poland, the Europeans are more keen to maintain access to arab/persian contracts and oil and to dampen the domestic fallout from their own local jihadist cells than they are to help us fight the jihadists on arab or persian soil. This is a cold calculation of objective national interest.
Neither do these nations have any really meaningful assets there. The farce that has been the Little Three’s overtures to Iran these past couple of years is a good example of their fecklessness reagrding Iran and AQ.
Taken together, these objective facts mean that, despite the odd courageous leader, the foreign policy elites of France, Germany, Spain and Italy will continue to seek to triangulate between us and the muslim world. That is a rational response to their objective situation. I would probably pursue the same tack if I were in the Quai d’Orsay or the other foreign offices.
It’s true that Russia has pursued this strategy as well, and Turkey to some extent too. India has in the past been aligned with Iran. However, these nations and of course Israel actually have heavy assets, serious humint capabilities on the ground, bases and assets and a willingness to use them against the jihadists. Unlike the Little Three, these states’ solid support for a tough containment of Iran could actually make a huge difference there, and regionally, against Al Qaeda as well.
One more point: Iran is heavily courting them. You should not underestimate the value to the desperately poor Russian arms manufacturing and engineering sector of a few billion $$ from nations like Iran. Ditto of course for the Indian and Turkish economies.
Russia, Turkey and India’s support will not be easy to gain but with enough dollars, market goodies and other carrots we can bring them around. We need to get serious about doing so, and fast. A nuclear Iran is inevitable, and Old Europe is utterly powerless to help us against Iran when it happens.
