There are lies, damn lies, statistics – and then there are polls.

- In the last Canadian election, the polls had the Conservatives forming a minority gov’t right up until 3 days before the election – the Liberals got a minority government. It was a combination of bad polling and a last-minute gaffe by a back-bencher.

- To add a fudge factor, I always aggregate the admitted moonbats (Nader voters) with moonbats in denial (Kerry voters).

- Bush is on a big bounce right now; he had a very positive (Arnold) and energetic (Zell)convention. Kerry will come back and re-energize some of his Sullivan-like voters (want to win the WoT, but don’t really like all those nasty Republicans and the price of vicotory; Kerry will (re-)snow at least some of these folks).

All that said, this is great news, so long as the Bush team doesn’t get complacent, though I don’t think Rove knows how to be complacent, though he can fake it.