I think you are all placing too much credence in the swifties, mainly because I see them getting “outed” left and right for having holes and discrepancies in their own stories. Meanwhile, polls indicate Kerry has successfully planted the idea that Bush is (in some way) behind them- A lot of people (who are not veterans) are turned off by the idea that you can disparage military service so cavalierly. It’s one thing to argue about Kerry’s protesting the Vietnam War (a legitimate gripe), it’s quite another to impugn his (and that of a lot of those around him) service. There will definitely be a backlash of some kind, especially with Bush’s failure to specifically condemn the group as McCain has asked.

I don’t believe the dynamic of the swifties has yet fully played out. They have severely damaged their credibility by the nature of their opening salvo, and it will now lessen the impact of later criticism.