Kerry’s response to the Swifties was so late and so inept that it showed he has no chance just due to the professional incompetence of his campaign staff – technical reasons independent of his message and personal issues.

But a campaign doesn’t get so bad unless the candidate’s own administrative skills suck, so it doesn’t matter what Kerry does at this point. He’ll screw up the reorganization too, not to mention that there isn’t time for any reorganized campaign to shake down and get results given that the election is only two months away.

One point to consider is that the main effect the Swifties may have had is not their message, but simply to keep Kerry in the center of attention for several weeks. Note that his standing in the polls tends to go down when that happens, even during the week of the Democratic convention, while it stays even or goes up a bit when he isn’t the center of attention.

This GOP convention week might be an opportunity to verify this hypothesis. If Kerry’s stand-alone image goes up or stays the same (even if Bush gets a boost in head-to-head matchups), I’m right – the public likes Kerry less the more they hear of him, and like him more the less they hear of him. Though constant negative portrayals of Bush by the media and print journalism probably have some influence here.