Comments on: What will the transition team tell Obama about capital gains?

By: Roger L. Simon » Obama’s Presser: I was wrong - again!

Roger L. Simon » Obama’s Presser: I was wrong - again! — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 20:58:45 +0000

[...] the wrong side of the presidential election and on Prop 8 and now I made the wrong prediction about capital gains. So it goes. Of course, the almost comically complaisant media didn’t ask the [...]

By: hermie

hermie — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 20:53:38 +0000

Problem with that is, Obama has already committed himself to his ‘tax break’ scheme. He can’t take it back, or even delayed it as those who voted for him expect the One to perform miracles starting January 21st.

What will be interesting is how he’ll explain his not immediately ordering a 16 month complete pullout from Iraq as he promised he would do.

By: Observer

Observer — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 20:05:33 +0000

If Obama is smart, he will immediately pledge that there will be no increase in the capital gains tax for the first year of his term; and that Larry Summers is going to be Treasury Secretary. Summers was Treasury Secretary under Clinton, so he has the experience, and it would be to Obama’s advantage to remind people how well the economy did under Clinton, rather than remind people of Obama’s wealth-redistribution pledges. If he does those two things, I bet the stock market would shoot up, and BHO could take all the credit.

By: John Galt

John Galt — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:33:40 +0000

The really loony lefties are not as much in control of the Dems as we expected, or they hoped. Obama is probably already working on his re-election campaign and leaving governance to his subordinates. It fits his “empty suit” pattern.

The real fear is that Waxman, Rangel, Reid, Pelosi et al. will force socialism and criminalize political differences. Obama is a man of very weak character and will be unable to resist them.

If Republican keep their mouths shut and their thinking caps on over the next few years, look for a resurgence. I am less than hopeful that they will be able to make inroads until 2016.

By: Andrew Koenig

Andrew Koenig — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:30:48 +0000

Hermie notes that the unions that support Obama have pension funds that are invested the markets that Obama’s policies will destroy. He’s right — which is why Obama will argue that the unions need a bailout or tax break of some kind.

By: jedrury

jedrury — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 15:45:27 +0000

Barry:

“This is totally media driven.”

Bingo, this is governance by celebrity; Caroline Kennedy is off the
UN, Bobby, Jr. is off to EPA head, Kerry off to State. But of course, there is a belief in this country, GOP and Dems alike, that there is
so treasure trove of brilliance/insight/wisdom in the minds of the celebrity. Well, guess what? Governing is a tough job requiring one
to delve into rules and regs and make policy choices impacting the national security, economy and the lives of Americans especially in this time of trouble and turbulence.

But, the media demands this type of summit meeting; where the best
and the brightest (remember Halberstam’s famous book which coined the phrase leading to the elitist culture) meet, greet, ruminate, ponder and decide. The key to this all: a desire in the media for a return to Camelot.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 15:35:22 +0000

The tax on capital gains has always been a losing proposition for governments imposing one. (And I would bet that there still are plenty of people who have been in employee stock purchase plans for decades who still have capital gains–most of which are due to inflation.) A bigger concern is the fact that the tax on dividends will increase once the Bush tax cuts die from 15% to whatever one’s marginal tax rate is on the first dollar of dividends received. That will really depress stock prices.

By: hermie

hermie — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 15:31:16 +0000

Funny thing, but aren’t Obama’s supporters the unions, have pension funds also invested in stocks, bonds and mutual funds?

By: david foster

david foster — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:56:26 +0000

Barry...we recently had a Chicago Boyz discussion about Michigan as an example of Obama's ideas in practice.

By: Barry Dauphin

Barry Dauphin — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:32:08 +0000

I think the fact that so many Americans own stock (via mutual funds) and rely on it for retirement has an effect of its own weight regardless of the desire for some sort of ideological purity. Obama often answered questions in a way like a college debate where purity and consistency of position matters. Politicians deal with the messy world. Hopefully, he will realize this soon enough (especially as he starts receiving national security briefings).

But one bad sign about his judgment. One of the 17 economic advisors he’s assembling is Jennifer Granholm, governor of Michigan. Michigan’s economy is in the toilet. Although that is not all her fault, she is quite undistinguished as an economic “thinker”. She is there simply because of the auto industry. Second bad sign…what can possibily be accomplished when 17 yahoos meet as a committee to “advise” him. This is totally media driven.

One of my biggest concerns about Obama is a return to the Andre Agassi model of governance: “image is everything”. Looks will matter a lot. This will gladen the hearts of many, but it will undermine genuine accomplishments and risk dangers down the road. In that sense this could be Clinton II.