Now, give China and India another two years with oil production where it is now and we can talk about supply driving costs.

Exports have remained high and that has helped with growth. I have no idea whether we are going to end up in a recession or not. I really did not think that the economy could tolerate such high oil prices. But I remember the recession back in the late 70′s and early 80′s and trust me, things were much worse then. It could be that the economy has just gotten so large that some parts of it remain in expansion. The big highs and lows we used to see just do not seem to be part of the equation anymore.

And that post was a good example of the point I made above. When did McCain attack his allies and supporters? When did he accept Obama’s narrative? I just got a lecture from someone on a rightie blog who said that McCain is in the pocket of the big plantation owners who use slave like immigrants…you get the picture. And that was not some Democrat either. It seems to me the largest problem is that McCain’s allies and supporters will not stop attacking each other.

Actually, we don’t know whether we’re in a recession. The blather about recessions being “defined” as two consecutive negative quarters of GDP growth is, well, blather. The accepted definition of a recession is, in fact, “whatever time period the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research labels as a recession after the fact.” The Committee is currently headed by Martin Feldstein, who was the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the early Reagan years. They don’t use the “two negative GDP quarters” definition. As Feldstein points out regularly, they look at a variety of factors, such as the level of industrial production and changes in employment. Unfortunately, industrial production has been falling for four months (so far down about 1.4% from the recent peak), and payrolls have been falling for six months, with a net decline of over 400,000 jobs so far. My bet would be that there is a better than even chance that the Committee will eventually declare that a recession began late last year or early this year.

Incidentally, if you use the “two negative GDP quarters” definition, we never had a recession in 2000-2001. The final revisions to the GDP numbers indicate that we had three negative quarters in a period of five quarters, but they were interspersed with two positive quarters, so we never had two consecutive negative quarters. But industrial production was down 6% from peak to trough, and payrolls fell by more than 2.5 million. (Not to mention the fact that the stock market fell 45%.) I would call that a recession, regardless of the GDP data. And so does the NBER.

Now, that’s more like it.

Watch to see if and when McCain and Obama are summoned to the WH.

I don’t think this is something that would be communicated over the phone.

I don’t think McCain’s reaction is gutless, it is politick. That is what people expect. Just read the comment sections of the rightie blogs. Most people are more angry with McCain for having a guy like Gramm advising him than they are with McCain for backing away from his remarks. They bitch too you know.

They bitched when McCain got the nomination. They bitch about the way he runs his campaign and who he talks to and his age. blah blah blah.

If someone else had won the nomination, they would have bitched about that person too. And if that person did just what so many of the complainers wanted him to do and lost anyway they would bitch about losing.

It never ends. This is why so many people just refuse to pay attention to politics or watch the news.

Whining to the left of me, whining to the right of me..

Of course not. Israel is closer to imminent and present danger.
On the other hand, a recent military setback coupled with a bleak internal politics, I’m not sure how confident Israel is going it alone. Close to our situation come to think of it.

To attack, Israel may need a trigger, a provocation, other than photoshopped pics of low range missile test.

It looks as if the threat of WMD is no longer enough of a casus belli. I sure dont hear anybody (other than the blogs) saying so.

Roger, I don’t want Iran to have the bomb as much as the next guy, but when I saw those guys in that photo op in Japan the other day, I only saw Zarco and Brown (maybe) other than Bush willing to do something about it.

If they are planning military action, they’re keeping it very close to the vest.