First of all, more than a few of my Democrat friends realize that Hillary will have a VERY DIFFICULT TIME carrying the same states that Jon Kerry did. Rudy could easily and will likely take both Pennsylvania and New Jersey — and thus election 2008 is over before it ever began.

“I don’t think that Giuliani is the strongest opponent Clinton would face. As a Democrat who also expects her to be the nominee, I would be most concerned with Romney, who will style himself as a kinder, gentler, more competent and conciliatory Dubya.” — Markus

This one was so far out in left field that my head spun around twice! Romney fashioning himself as a Dubya might explain why he is the hopeless trailing in the polls. In contrast to Bush, Rudy Giuliani is liberal on social issues such as abortion and gay rights but is still strong on national security, which is definitely what the country is looking for right now.

One would think that this site can stay aloof from the ad hominem attacks which completely mar other sites.

The honest truth is that we don’t and won’t for some time KNOW if the Surge worked… we probably won’t even be able to define “worked” until sometime next year. That’s really the problem in dealing with insurgencies… no one can honestly tell when they’re being beaten and when they’re hiding out. This has been a common tactic since Mao.

So maybe things will become very peaceful and happy in Iraq, and we’ll see no more terror attacks for then next 12 months. In which case the “War on Terrorism” will quickly vanish in the American Short Attention Span and the reds will be screaming about abortion while the blues scream about global warming. Or, maybe the surge will fail, maybe there will be another horrific attack like what happened in Lebanon. If that happens, it seems likely that Americans will turn screaming into the arms of the Dems. It seems to me that the best bet for any Republican candidate to actually get elected will involve a successful Iraq but a resurgent Al Quaeda, complete with attacks either here or abroad.

I would prefer Rudy over Hillary. However, I’m still not really happy with those options.

Given that there has been NO talk whatsoever about Cheney running for President, I think my explanation is credible, I was making a facetious comment, a joke about the fact that Giuliani’s greatest appeal lies with the same diehard group of voters who happen to think that Dick Cheney is an unjustly maligned leader, someone who “gets it” when it comes to fighting terrorism.

The other posters here are merely more polite than I am. As for “backing up”, there is plenty of evidence in Roger’s comments sections of both your dishonesty and your antisemitism. One piece is right here in this thread, the way you tried to weasel out of the Cheney comment with the tired old “just kidding” dodge.

Barry, I can’t disagree with anything you say. I just don’t see what is so interesting or meaningful about the fact that Republican primary voters are willing to consider an alleged social liberal. Because they are pragmatic enough to know John Paul Stevens is 88, and President Giuliani will likely nominate right-wing judges? Because they know he is not a moderate at all when it comes to miliary and foreign policy affairs?

I’m also not sure how the immigration politics are going to play out. It definately does seem like a hottest issue out there. Will Republican primary voters stay enthused for Rudy when opponents start running ads quoting his earlier statements in support of illegal immigrants? You could answer all of this stuff better than me.

Gary, I wonder why no one else seems to care? Maybe cause you can’t back up your case.

Don’t worry about it. We were told this by a compulsive liar and slimy antisemitic bigot.

I think the Republicans are concerned because of the ambiguity inherent in today’s electoral environment. Politicians abhor (and dread) ambiguity. In fact Roger’s post involves that issue. Rudy is basically socially liberal, but he continues to poll well among Republicans. Will this continue? I don’t know, but it really wasn’t expectable a year ago or 4 years ago. But it becomes less surprising day by day. Perhaps in hindsight it will be seen as inevitable. But today, it can still elicit head scratching. But the Republicans (in the know) are afraid they don’t know so much or as much as they used to know.

One metaphor often invoked to describe how Republicans typically select their candidate is that of a Rotary club. Now to be sure the metaphor is as inaccurate as it is accurate, but there’s a little something to it. In 1996, it was Dole’s “turn”. In 2000 Bush obtained some anointment. But who’s turn is it this year? This year that question doesn’t even seem to make sense. Of course Republicans in the know are skittish.

Many voters have war fatigue and don’t see even minimal prospects of the US “winning.” The Republicans are concerned because who can really project the trajectory of things at this point? But the Democrats are not truly brimming with confidence. Any who are will get blindsided by the voters.

Another issue is immigration policy. The thing is that there is a powerful divide in this country about that issue. Solomon has not yet stepped forward. All politicians would do well to not take anything for granted in 2008.