As an engineer, I am always amazed at people smugly predicting that X or Y cannot do Z until time T (well into the future). This simply ignores the uncertainty of intelligence knowledge, the intelligence and education available to anyone in the world (except perhaps North Koreans), the dramatic improvements in computing power every year, and the acceleration of all sorts of work due to modern telecommunications. Add to this the incentives for collaboration (as demonstrated by the A.Q. Khan network), and I think anyone who puts a date longer than a year on anyone’s nuke program is blowing smoke.

and given that Iran’s leader has made it abundantly clear that the annhialation of Israel is priority number 1; what is keeping Israel from launching a preemptive first strike?

Iran’s leader is Khameni, quietly in the background pulling the strings along with Rafsanjani. Ahmadine-jahadi is most likely their wacko puppet.

The interesting question is why they choose to act with such belligerence. They appear to be asking for a military strike from us or Israel. This could be apocalyptic Shia thinking; it could be a cynical attempt to increases internal control (which I think is a lot stronger already than appreciated) as a natural response to an attack; it could be an attempt to dissipate what little will the west has, when the inevitable huffing and puffing about the attack paralyzes the west and prevents another; or, it could be bragging for internal and external consumption – taken in the belief that we are already too paralyzed to stop them.

He has made his career bashing the American soldier. I am not interested in his unsourced inside crapola.

Look at John Moore’s post and delete the “probably”:

“… I would not be at all surprised if the recent Korean test was in fact a Pu nuke where the trigger was slightly deficient – and it was probably observed by (or built by) Iranian engineers.”

It was a joint test by North Korea and Iran. Further I said on Winds of Change last April that the high probability period for their first test would start in October, though I admitted it might come as early as the middle of September. I was uncertain, though, as to whether the location of the test would be in Iran or North Korea. I got the place wrong, but the date right.

Tom, have you got some actual evidence or intelligence to point out? I agree with you that this seems possible, even probable — or, perhaps, the recent test was a demo at a sales meeting — but you assert it as fact.

The taboo against doing that is greater than the survival instinct? Israel will be hated even more by the Arabs and the International Community than they are today? It’s better to be dead Nice Jewish Boys than live “Nazis?”

No, I think I will skip this.

You know what? I think that if we could make a bomb in the desert of the American southwest more than 60 years ago, it is quiet possible that all kinds of backward countries coud make one today. If they chose to.

I do not trust the author or leaks from the CIA. Leakers laways have an agenda and the CIA has made too many mistakes to be a credbile source.

Iran already HAS exploded its first nuke. It was a joint test with North Korea.

Yes there is.

If the CIA’s view was true, other countries in and around Iran’s region would not be getting nuclear weapons. If it’s false (or nations in and around Iran’s neighborhood believed it false, they WOULD be embarking on crash nuke programs).

The NYT reports the FOLLOWING nations have publicly announced nuke programs: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Algeria. The FOLLOWING have not publicly announced but consensus of intelligence analysts is that they are starting them anyway: YEMEN, UAE, Tunisia, Turkey.

That makes a total of EIGHT … 8 … nations in and around Iran starting nuke programs. Note Iran ALREADY has ballistic missiles that can reach to Italy and plans soon missiles that can reach the Continental US and thus ALL of Europe and North Africa also.

Therefore, Hersh’s article and the views of CIA officers presented therein fail the sanity test. The views don’t jibe with real world actions taken by those with the most to lose and inside already the US defense umbrella (Saudi, Egypt, Morocco, UAE, Tunisia). When MOROCCO plans nukes you know consensus ARAB intelligence views are that Iran ALREADY has nukes.

Hersh will look like an idiot as well as the CIA when Iran explodes it’s first nuke. Well he IS an idiot not to run this sanity test himself. Belief deluding rationality. Hersh a perfect example. As if it were 1968 forever.

Like making a movie about Bobby Kennedy’s assasination and forgetting somehow to mention that the assassin was Muslim Sirhan Sirhan, acting over Kennedy’s speech in support of Israel.