Comments on: Signs and Portents in China

By: Sandy P

Sandy P — Mon, 28 Nov 2005 03:49:26 +0000

2 explosions, an earthquake and 2 explosions in mines.

And their press — for them — is making noise.

Not a good week for the Chicoms.

Any bets as to who the sacrificial lambs are?

By: kynna

kynna — Mon, 28 Nov 2005 02:30:04 +0000

I do believe that tyrannical regimes see famine and natural disaster as population control. So the quake in Iran killed 10? That’s 10 fewer poor people who might take part in an uprising against the mullahs.

And they (and China) will replace the buildings with the same shoddy construction as before — much like our own Louisiana government is trying to do with New Orleans.

By: John Moore ( Useful Fools )

John Moore ( Useful Fools ) — Sun, 27 Nov 2005 21:10:46 +0000

When in Mexico City immediately after the magnitude 8.3 1985 quake, I was told that they had very good earthquake building codes. But corruption pays, and it showed. The most deadly failures were of government built buildings (everyone probably remembers the tragedy at the Maternity Hospital) – those most vulnerable to corruption. The largest number of casualties reportedly came from huge government housing projects – 1000 unit buildings, almost all of which fell down (I saw two remaining – and they were leaning).

Private buliders, of course, could take part in the carnage also by paying fees, and indeed a number of smaller private structures were destroyed.

However, in China one wonders how many of the structural failures were modern buildings and how many were just structures erected by the poor. It is difficult to build a modern building that will fail in a 5.7 earthquake (recognizing that the ground movement and earthquake magnitude are not tightly correlated).

By: heather

heather — Sun, 27 Nov 2005 19:12:56 +0000

It seems to me that the USSR’s disintegration was prefigured by really awful environmental disasters (like whole cities covered in pollution.) China is essentially a 3rd world country, attempting to build 1st world toys … without the social structures and ethics necessary to make them work.

My speculation is that these disasters will have dire consequences for the present political class.

By: Sam_S

Sam_S — Sun, 27 Nov 2005 18:42:00 +0000

Oh, Anthony, the standards are pretty good, at least for newer buildings, but the problem of corruption means those standards may not always be met. You don’t get to know which building got its inspection permit via “extraordinary” means. I live and work in Chinese buildings, so that’s a concern!

By: Colin

Colin — Sun, 27 Nov 2005 17:34:44 +0000

Roger, in response to “I hope the Europeans are starting to get the message that keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of the mullahs is not about George Bush, but about human life”, I would have to say probably not. Especially in Germany, the need to see America defeated on the world stage seems to trump their own instincts for survival. I honestly believe many people in Europe would rather see a mushroom cloud rise over one of their cities which could then be blamed on George Bush and the boorish Americans than to see the treat of such an occurance vanish due to the efforts of the Americans. Quite a sad state of affairs if you ask me .

By: Anthony (Los Angeles)

Anthony (Los Angeles) — Sun, 27 Nov 2005 16:56:48 +0000

Hi Roger,

But one wonders how those monuments to instant development would withstand a serious shake.

I don’t wonder. Chinese industry is rife with corruption, as even their own censored news accounts show. I seriously doubt they have the building standards and inspections we have here in California. My guess it that a Northridge-sized quake in a major metropolitan area of China will bring many of those new buildings tumbling down.