I have decided to move the returns post up here to get Arafat behind us, for once. In the short run, it feels as if we are all giving each other psychotherapy. Some people prefer to believe the worst inorder not to be disappointed. Other keep up a bravura front. I can go either way. [But you don't flip-flop!-ed. Right!] One thing seems clear so far, that if the close numbers prove to be correct, the polls were pretty accurate. Most of them, as we know, predicted a squeaker.
BTW, kudos to PhP Webhosting. Despite heavy traffic, this site seems to be working pretty well, as opposed to some other political blogs.
1:57p – Oops, server seems to be slowing down.
2:OOp – My detective writer instinct tells me that there is a fair amount of lying going on around the exit polls. False or inflated numbers are being given out for political reasons. It would be a relatively simple thing to do in such a fluid situation. And then later the “informer” just goes “Aw, schucks, that’s what they told me,” giving a nice innocent shrug.
2:15p – In the middle of the election, a disturbing report from Patrick Lasswell regarding voter fraud.
2;28p – Is Hindrocket calling it for Thune in SD? More important – is this a harbinger of things to come when the blogs will be looked to along with or even before the networks to call elections?
2:36 – I keep noticing various bloggers… Power Line, The Corner… urging people to get out and vote. But aren’t they preaching to the choir? I can’t imagine readers of political blogs NOT voting. Am I wrong?
3:37 – I agree with Rod Dreher at The Corner. I can’t get my mind off the murder of filmmaker Theo Van Gogh today. This is the reason we fight and it is hugely depressing to me that the man may have died on the day the American people have deserted the cause.
3:59p – One of our special correspondents has revealed the source of biased exit polls.
4;12 – Florida now will not have its absentee ballot counted until Thurs… Yikes.
4:20p – After this is over, someone ought to track down where these exit polls come from, who does them, who redacts or “scrubs” them, as they say in the parlance, etc.
4:59p – Very weird… The gang on Fox are talking like Dush is losing while the real time votes from Florida show Bush leading comfortably with 12.5% reporting. Fox is projecting Kerry victor in NJ.
5:18p DEMONSTRATION in Amsterdam protests murder of Theo Van Gogh.
5:59p – Fascinating discussion on Fox during which Brit, Bill Kristol, etc. admitted that the exit polls favored Kerry. But some information now indicates the exit polls were in error. Who knows?
6:46p – If you haven’t been checking Horserace Blog, you should be. Interesting early returns from Ohio, which now shapes up as the key state. He also has the best breakdown on the exit poll conundrum. If these exit polls continue to be problematic, we’ll all have a job to do tomorrow – find out how that happened.
7:30p – Your Humble Pundit… I will be on the Hugh Hewitt Show to discuss the election so far in fifteen minutes… 7:45 Pacific. I won’t be making any predictions, I can’ promise you that… but I am wondering about those exit polls.
8:00p – Back from Hewitt. If you missed me, too bad. Here’s what I didn’t say… If Bush wins, he owes his election to two people: Ed Koch (Florida) and DennisThePeasant (Ohio). [Are you kidding?-ed. Of course not.]
8:09p Laker 16 – Nuggest 11 (No, I’m not watching but I get the scores on line. What can I say?)
8:15p The Stem Cell iniative is ahead in Calfiornia. More Arnold clout. If the election goes the way it looks like it’s going who will be the big winners and losers? If Kedwards loses, John Edwards is a footnote. He did nothing for their campaign.
8:34p – Michael Barone is the most knowledgeable political commentator on the air.
8:43p – Susan Estrich claims Ohio will still go Democratic. She seemed angry.
DAvid Gergen on CNN sounds incredibly pompous, talking about cultural dvisions which I don’t think are as operative as he does. Kerry seemed like a phony. That isn’t a cultural division. That’s character.
10:32p – Disputing Ohio, assuming the numbers come in close to where they are now, will make the Democrats seem like soreheads across America. It is a dumb move.
Moreover, with the President winning the popular vote by over three million votes, disputing this election seems deeply weird.
Juan Williams is talking about conspiracy theories on Fox when his man lost by over three million votes. What a creep! The big loser tonight is the MSM.
Juan William is a real jerk. He says KErry shouldn’t concede. Kerry SHOULD concede in order to bring the country together. If he doesn’t he is a hypocrite.
The DEmocrats should concede. To fight on when you have lost the popular vote by three and a half million shows no class and no respect for the people. The reviled Nixon conceded, as we all know, in a much closer election.
No grace from Andrew Sullivan who says Bush was “narrowly elected.” Andrew, he won the popular vote by three and a half million votes. Read your history. That’s not narrow. Bill Clinton never got over fifty percent of the vote.
THe DEmocrats now have the option of self-destructing over implausible challenges, as Michael Barone just said. or of learning and changing.
Okay, folks, definitely stop panicking.
I read The Corner so you don’t have to, and got this:
In other words, those polls on Drudge are disinformation.
With the (non-fake!) early numbers looking better than 2000, I suspect Bush will in fact open up a substantial lead when all is said and done.
Last night’s polls breaking Bush are a good sign.
Sudden dramatic shift at Tradesports.com in favor of Kerry. Bush was trading at 58 four hours ago. Now down to 36.
Not sudden — the price dipped a while back.
You could make some money.
Melk:
I saw that. I did a post on the other thread. It occured to me someone might be making money off this. Who knows? Obvioulsy the markets have not been right so far or if they have they are not now. Does that make sense?
Okay . . . now it turns out that they don’t have a card for Hubby, even though he’d made sure to send in his change of address and they sent him a voters’ registration card from the Prince Georges county. He’s in another line while they call up the office to check up on this. Arrggghhh . . .
Keep your spirits up fellow bloggers….remember, a Kerry win will help keep Hillary out in ’08!
Tradesports is giving me heart palpitations.
Like I said at Jay’s blog, the Market Based Indicators mean NOTHING now. Seriously. I cannot imagine the trading volume is significant, and as a result there can be wild swings in odds on very little activity.
Yeah, they’re being manipulated. Probably by Soros’ goons.
Is it reasonable to be so upset you wish you could slap some of the idiots who post at The Corner? They should have asked their sources before they posted the fake exit polls.
Am I the only person who thinks we should get rid of registering to vote and just have every citizen 18 years of age or older automatically registered? This way we can do away with a lot of voter fraud, and if the system was networked, people wouldn’t be able to vote twice.
I’m glad your site is working…I haven’t been able to view Instapundit or LGF at all today. :\
Emerald, but of course, this is the *first* blog you wanted to be on, right?
lindenen: No kidding. Even their optimistic posts are in full doom-n-gloom style.
I wonder if there is a DOS attack on Instapundit, LGF, and Powerline. Seems odd that Kos is up and they are not….
I’ve had no problems (beyond slight delay) on LGF all day.
George Purcell
Charles at LGF has a whole thread on the “Internet tsunami” problem:
Traffic is insanely high across the whole Hosting Matters network; they?re doing their best (as always) to keep the servers pumping out packets, but things may be a bit glitchy today as a result.
Keep trying–there are about 5400 visitors online at LGF at the moment; I don’t have figures for the other sites, but I have been able to get on both Instapundit (which is very slow-loading today) and Power Line.
Good luck!
I am absolutely amazed at the manner in which the blogosphere has put people who would never no each other exist, in constant touch in real time. To some extent, it’s not healthy. If I had no internet, I would probably put the election out of my mind until 8:00 tonight. Instead I am obsessively shifting back and forth between blogs I trust and rely on hoping for good news even though (as I posted on the other thread) any news now is meaningless. I am really excited about tonight when the returns start to come in although in states that are close I figure there will be a number of bouts of manic-depressive behavior. One thing I am curious about is how the Dem/left bloggers can be SO optimistic while the Repub./right bloggers are as well. Someone is either living in a dream world or lying. Do Josh Marshall and Daily Kos genuinely feel good about their chances? I am sure the sober minded Polipundit bloggers along with Jay Cost and others believe what they are posting. I’m not sure about the lefties. We have all been spinning for months. At last the spin time is over. If Bush is victorious tonight, Kos and Wonkette and Marshall will have no choice but to admit it (unless it is too close) then they will spin the meaning of the results which we can expect for the next four years. The fact that we Bush supporters are nervous leads me to believe we are the ones who understand reality while they are cocooned. I hope so.
Well, he’s not on the book, so he’s been told to go over to the community center to cast a provisional ballot, so it looks like Russian class is off for tonite. Knowing him, he’s going to be majorly pissed off and I’m going to have to calm him down.
cry for help
This is way, way OT, but it’s too late now.
Since I’m sure most of you out there don’t want to see me JUMP OFF THIS LEDGE, I’m hoping somebody, somewhere knows the answer to this Enrichment Problem my son brought home from math today:
Number Machine
In Out
1 | 3
2 | 3
3 | 5
4 | 4
5 | 4
6 | 3
7 | 5
Apparently there is a pattern to this configuration that a 5th grade student can be expected to discern within two weeks’ time.
If somebody doesn’t tell me what it is SOON, I swear I’m gonna jump.
chris m:
which is worse? hillary in the white house or hillary as chief justice of the supremes?
doug:
when tucker carlson was here for the debates at asu, a student reporter asked him, “what effect has all the spin had on real politics?” tucker answered, “politics IS spin. pure and simple.” i don’t know why kerry supporters are so comfortable in a featureless wasteland of spin and gaming, but just because bush supporters are more anxious doesn’t mean they don’t have genuine reason to be. i see this as a moment when ignorant armies clash by night.
Gee. Now Mark Steyn at The Corner is telling us that Texas might be in play. I want to hit them with hammers.
Catherine, dear, count the letters.
(I always hated those problems!)
I have to panic! *runs screaming from Drudge Report Poll Numbers*
Who will pay for my therapy if Kerry wins?
can we use the hammers on catherine’s numbers?
Bostonian, in all honesty, yes…this is my favorite blog. It’s not just because of Mr. Simon’s entries but also that he has a lot of very thoughtful folks that contribute to his threads. This place is truly a gem.
Good evening, all.
We are now 25 minutes away from the first *real* data of the day, as most polls in Indiana and Kentucky will close at 6pm EST. HOWEVER… both states have have some counties in the Central time zone, so we shouldn’t be getting any network projections until after 7pm EST/4pm PST.
There is a good national closing-time map here. It also looks like that page will be posting electoral votes, so you might want to bookmark it.
Both Indiana and Kentucky are reliably red by just about everyone’s map, but it might be possible to gain an inkling of midwestern popular-vote trends by watching the Indiana governor’s race (Democrat incumbent, predicted to shift to Republican by close margin) and the Indiana US Senate race (Evan Bayh, the Democrat incumbent, is predicted to retain seat easily). Although Hoosiers are notorious ticket-splitters…
Lindenen:
Mark Steyn is trying to be funny by suggesting how the difference in voting between 2000 and 2004 in that little town in NH could be spun to “prove” that Texas is in play. I read his post as an attempt to calm people down.
lindenen: Uh, he’s joking. It’s Mark Steyn. He’s making fun of the hysteria.
Hewitt says “calmer heads have prevailed” over the fake poll hysteria. GOTV back on track? I hope so. To a large extent this dirty trick was a test of how fast the blogosphere can process and discard bad information. Was it fast enough? I hope so.
Catherine:
It’s very cute. The second row is the number of
letters making up the written number in the first row.
So, one (3) letters
two (3) letters
three (5) letters
etc
I guess I still think like a fifth grader!
IN the interest of stopping Catherine before she does something rash:
“one” : 3
“two” : 3
“three”: 5
“four” : 4
and so on.
Yankee, I hope you’re right. Maybe I need to go lay down and drink some rum. I would just like to get drunk, fall asleep, wake up tomorrow and find out what happened. But I can’t. Because I’m compulsive, and I guess it’s causing my reading comprehension skills to go on the fritz.
Melk, I’m of the opinion that that kind of problem is pretty muchh too goddamn cute by half.
Oh, maybe as an “aptitude” question, or to demonstrate the value of thinking orthogonally, but not as a regular math problems.
It’s like the other kind of problem I always hated:
MILK
+EGGS
=========
STEAK
or some damn thing. If they can be solved, they are solved by search: you keep trying different numbers for the various letters until you find a collection that work. There’s nothing deep in them, no insight; its a puzzle like solving a jigsaw puzzle.
CHARLIE I LOVE YOU————-
I’m serious.
By SERIOUS I mean that I am now math-obsessed to the point that when Other Moms drop by to pick up their kids and spot my shelf of math books and computer-labeled math notebooks they BURST OUT LAUGHING IN MY FACE.
That’s how math-obsessed I am.
So, uh, I REALLY REALLY REALLY needed that answer.
Melk—-you, too
THANK YOU!
Life is good.
Lindenen–
My nerves are shot too. Some troll just posted something from Drudge over at LGF that supposedly indicates a big Kerry lead. Frankly I’m really sick of the head games that are being played. Someone commented on a thread several days ago here that polls are a cancer on democracy. To which I say Amen.
Who will pay for my therapy if Kerry wins?
I believe he has a plan about that.
Speaking of therapy, I’ve started in on the Jersey Devils. Not bad. T’will do; t’will serve.
I still say Bush by a length.
Charlie: I agree, but it seems to be a good example of a “think outside the box” problem,for extra credit. Trouble is, it’s usually extra credit for the parents or their friends!
scaramouche doing a passable imitation of Bette Davis in All About Eve: “Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy night.”
More resources:
Here is a more-than-you-ever-wanted-to-know- about-poll-closing-times-but- we’re-going-to-tell-you-anyway page with extensive notes about the 14 states that have multiple poll-closing times. It gives estimated times of network projections, and also converts times to UTC, for our international friends
.
I want you all to know that I am refraining from launching into my Why it is morally and economically wrong, wrong, wrong to waste a child’s time on a pattern-recognition problem that involves COUNTING LETTERS to get the answer.
Given the fact that at least half the folks here have a frigging clue about market economics, opportunity costs, productivity gains, and whatever else I’m missing from that list, I figure it would be redundant.
All this sound and fury about exit polling reminds me of the old columnist Mike Royko’s recommendation for people quizzed by political pollsters:
“Lie.”
I generally don’t drink, but I’ve got a very good bottle of very dark, very expensive, very old rum at home that I think I may take a taste of tonight….
FWIW: Hugh Hewitt advised people upset by the Drudge stuff to read Jim Geraghty. Here goes:
The “big cheeses” in GOP circles weren’t worried by today’s nutty exit poll scare. They know the bad, bad history of initial exit polls. In 2000, the first polls showed Bush and Gore even – Bush won by nine points. The 2000 Florida poll showed Gore winning by three, and we all know that ended with a 537 vote Bush win.
Even more glaring, in 2002, the first exit polls showed Wayne Allard down by 10 in the Colorado Senate race. He won by 10.
Catholic vote looks good for the President, particularly in Wisconsin.
Bush is getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 35 percent in 2000.
And no, exit polls don’t include early and absentee voting. Bush leads these nationwide.
There is total confidence that at the end of the night, Bush will win.
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200411021724.asp
Roger,
An observation on exit polls if I may.There has been such a climate of fear generated in the run up to this election,numerous people have said that they dare not put a Bush sticker on their car and a host of former Democrat voters have said that they are reluctant to admit they are Bush supporters.
So why would that change exiting the polling station?
The best of luck to you all and may the only man win.
Roger ought to put up a permanent thread for fifth graders and their math homewokr: “Ask Charlie”
One things for sure – the days of the Demcocratic machine vote manipulation without recourse are over. With real-time blogging, it will be nee impossible to arbitrarily disenfranchise Republican voters with impunity.
As for the early numbers from the “leaked” exit polling – that’s par for the course. The ‘numbers’ are coming from AP stringers, so takes them as you wish.
lindenen
I guess it’s causing my reading comprehension skills to go on the fritz.
Actually, that’s probably exactly what’s happening.
There’s all kinds of fabulous research on brain fritzes under stress. I love it.
Once you know the research, you can see the phenomenon in yourself (which I’m hoping will be a Help to me once I hit old age).
That’s what I was talking about on the other thread when I said I “couldn’t” take the dog for a walk to calm down, because I have 2 dogs, and 1 dog will get upset if he/she gets left behind, etc., etc., etc.
All of that is true, of course, but when you’re stressed, little facts like I-have-two-dogs-not-1-dog are insurmountable.
Brainlock!
Germany’s getting ready for showtime.
One of the talking heads said this, and how typical:
Broder: I used to be pro Bush, but after a few weeks in the U.S. I prefer Kerry. He’s more aristocratic, doesn’t appear so proletarian (like Bush).
Not David Broder.
Catherine, I agree with you completely. I was never very good at a lot of those sorts of problems as a kid; in general I was assured that I “wasn’t trying hard enough”.
I always thought that meant I should strain at it, like passing a bolus after constipation.
What they really meant was “you aren’t willing to keep doing stupid crap until you finally grind it down.”
Or in this case they mean “we’ve presented you with something that claims to be a math problem, but isn’t, so we can explain why you were doing it the wrong way, you dummy.”
In this case, in particular, consider THIS series:
1 | 4
2 | 4
3 | 4
4 | 4
5 | 4
6 | 5
7 | 6
and so on. It’s exactly the same problem — but this time I did it in German: “eins, zwei, drei….”
You see, it’s not a math problem — no mathematical insight or process will arrive at the right answer, and the answer depends on the initial assumption that the reader is reading English.
Catherine, before you click this link, be aware that I’m feeling in an impish-bordering-on-perverse mood, which is the only reason I’m posting it:
http://www.borrett.id.au/computing/petals-bg.htm
You’ve been warned.
And Charlie, I agree with you. It was a damned number machine, not a two-cute-by-half thinking machine.
Just realized that site doesn’t make navigation to the game itself obvious. Here’s the direct link:
http://www.borrett.id.au/computing/petals-j.htm
Well, seems exit voters have issues w/how al kaka was handled and they voted accordingly.
According to Fox News.
Re: “internet tsunami”Back on 9/11, news-starved internet users turned to the weblogs and sites like Slashdot because the MSM sites couldn’t keep up with the demand/weren’t delivering the news fast enough. It’s ironic (and gratifying) that on this election day the trend appears to be the oposite.Re: Get-Out-The-Vote
Roger wrote:
Well, just look at the comments on “Returns” and “Returns II” (heh!). Seriously, political professionals have always recognized the problem of late voters not voting because they believed the election was “already decided.” It doesn’t happen as much now that they’ve started embargoing exit poll results, but it is a real factor.
To everyone:
Relax!!! It is out of our control.If you are not working on GOTV then there is nothing you can do and the early exit polls are so thin and unreliable that to approach the ledge over them is unwise.. I think a Kerry administration will be horrible and I think that this election will be a nailbiter. But if it happens we will survive. The supreme court possibilities make me sick but if we survived Carter we can live thru(albeit painfully) Kerry. Depending on your preference I would suggest praying, meditation, or drinking, as long as you are at home and your guns are secure and unloaded.
Catherine, Charlie, & co: those problems made my life miserable because they’re so ill-posed. It’s time to push back on the system by teaching Catherine’s young about non-uniqueness of solutions. Fit that baby to a sixth degree polynomial and let the teacher chew on that for a while!
And Old Grouch, now that people don’t trust Old Media to tell them the truth, “early calls” are less likely to suppress votes than before.
Every dark cloud has a silver lining, I guess.
I’m puzzling over whether Kerry will show grace or bitterness in his concession speech. When Gore finally had the towel ripped from his hands he made a very gracious speech (which he immediately repudiated by his actions). Who will be tasked to tell Kerry that “It’s time Senator.” The best decision that Kerry made in this election was to not give up his Senate seat. At least he’ll have a job in the morning.
Will Daschle require sedation by the end of the evening? Will we be able to hear his shrieking without the aid of radio or telelvision?
Any ideas on how ‘Mr. Rolodex’ will spin the evening? “Yes, we lost the presidential race and it appears that we gave up six Senate seats, five House seats and two Governorships but all the judges we supported in NYC were reconfirmed.” Way to go, Terry.
Roger, maybe not the readers themselves, but the word has to filter out -through them- if at all.
Re your preaching to the choir query – sadly, no. I simply can’t endorse either candidate, although I’m a Dem who would probably vote Bush if someone put a gun to my head. I’m not voting this year, but am racing around these sites like a lost kid at WalMart.
Even though I will be far more disgusted to watch Dems celebrating a win, I also don’t want Bush to have a huge mandate. Neither outcome is going to be reassuring. Almost nothing is reassuring, although there are the really funny moments that allow me to breath properly for awhile. Maybe if our soldiers are successful (and thorough) in Fallujah and Ramadi this month? I dread everything I want to happen.
Kevin, while I understand your point (and in some ways, you’re right), its also important to understand that alot of the folks here have quite a bit invested- emotionally, politically, economically, socially- in Bush’s re-election. Many of the regulars here are former libs who were swayed to vote for Bush because of the war on terror. I for one would like to see their faith in our president and guts in crossing party lines to vote their conscience be rewarded.
Not to mention, a Kerry presidency would not just be “bad”, it would be a disaster, in my opinion. Everytime I think of Kerry and Iraq, I come back to the 6 month pull out deadline (said to be articificial by his troops) and for some reason, I believe Kerry will pull all troops out of Iraq in 6 months, no matter what the state of the country.
Not to mention, Kerry’s campaign represents the absolute worst of the DNC- the hate filled rhetoric, the lying, the cheating. This is not a return to Carter or even Clinton- a Kerry victory sends a signal to Michael Moore, Moveon.org, George Soros, that jerkoff Steven Bing, that not only is lying, cheating and hating acceptable, IT CAN BRING YOU VICTORY.
Its not just a presidential election – its people who tried to run a campaign the right way versus people who want to win at all costs, even if the country is damned in the process.
It may seem overly dramatic but I’ve read the commnetators on this blog for over a year and thats the sense I get.
timmah! -
good idea…
y = 0.0375×6 – 0.9125x^5 + 8.8125x^4 – 42.771x^3 + 108.15x^2 – 131.32x + 61
Courtesy of MS Excel.
Despite my relative calm, I’ve just started drinking already. Ungh — while sick, too.
NRO says the latest of these stupid exit polls show Ohio tied. Since it was +4 Kerry this morning and +1 Kerry this afternoon, the poll (for whatever it’s worth–which might be nothing) is trending Bush’s way.
atticus: So now that it looks close, you’d better get out there and vote for Bush, no?
Do you really want gutter politics to be crowned with the Biggest Presidential Victory Ever?
I dunno about Ohio, but the late Florida voters will be mostly Bush — which, of course, screwed him last time.
Rick Ballard:
Sandy:
Amyone who could be swayed by AlQaQa had already made up their minds. The only thing it taught me is that I can’t trust the NYT, but I knew that already.
Gale has heartburn and is conveinced that if Bush loses his business is ruined. I am wondering if Mr. Wonderful will put Saddam back in chage of Iraq and loan him bulldozers for the mass graves. Michael Moore can do a movie about it, Sean Penn can play a young Saddam.
I think the Dems could win, but then they gotta live with what they won. If you know what I mean.
Catherine, Charlie, & co: those problems made my life miserable because they’re so ill-posed. It’s time to push back on the system by teaching Catherine’s young about non-uniqueness of solutions. Fit that baby to a sixth degree polynomial and let the teacher chew on that for a while!
Funny you should mention that, because the first thing I did was try repeated differences to see what the series was. Then I realized it wasn’t going to fit to anything less than about sixth degree and thought “it’s got to be dumber and simpler than that!”
Thank God it wasn’t a seventh grade problem, eh?
Atticus:
A strong win would be a message to the Democrats (the former party of most of us here on this blog) that this country cannot stand the tactics they’ve resorted to. IMO, this message needs to be sent loud and clear.
From Rapid City, South Dakota
Local bloggers in South Dakota are saying that exit polls are showing Thune six points ahead of Daschle. They are also saying that Daschle is not making a graceful exit.
Tradesports appears to be abe to be manipulated. Either they have a small float, or a big hitter is attempting to sway opinion (Soros?). Time to make money fellas.
PeterUK
The exit polls are largely done by “interested” third parties: interested in affecting the voters yet to vote that is. This is an electioneering trick to discourage voters. It is done by oversampling groups suspected of leaning one way or another.
Exit polling by anyone but a reputable source is to be ignored. It is a trick to influence the remaining voters.
We’ll have to wait until the voters can no longer be manipulated in order to begin a stream of real data.
unfortunately we may be living in a new subatomic world where old rules like gravity and truth and honor have no sway. to think that sean penn, barbra streisand, and michael moore have become the face of our rulers, where surrender is valued above victory, and where lies guarantee power.
John Lynch
What you said. Hugh Hewitt posted the following comments a few minutes ago:
Exit polls are to election nights what food poisoning are to great restaurants. Four years ago they spooked the networks into calling Florida for Gore. Today they almost spooked the blogosphere into calling entire election for Kerry. I think appropriate skepticism has been infused, and that the cool heads at Bush-Cheney got the fire out. But jeez, go back and read a piece I wrote for the WeeklyStandard this year, Black Blog Ops. I think Drudge got worked today –big time.
Here is a link to the Weekly Standard piece on the possibility of using blogs for political dirty tricks: http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/233uylts.asp
Indiana news– Record Turnout?(In Indiana, any voters in line when polls close are allowed to vote.)The Marion County Clerk (Indianapolis) had predicted that with “normal” closing the county’s results would most likely be tabulated around 9pm EST– 3 hours after scheduled closing. Indiana media now reports that there are enough polls that will close late (some possibly as late as 7pm) that tabulation may be delayed by 1/2 to 1 hour. Reporters are attributing delay to “record turnout.”
Catherine:
You asked what “Failing Toward Victory/Succeeding to Defeat meant.
Since this is appears to be the thread I will answer here. Failing Toward Victory is a term I coined in describing how the current MSM approach to Iraq would like in the 1944 European Campaign. Each event in the chain of events that led to the German defeat was described only in its negatives. When described in the negative it looks like the Germans won. Conversely, Succeeding to Defeat a description of what really is happening in Iraq but MSM induced voter perception results in the election Kerry and a withdrawl from Iraq followed by a terrorist victory.
Here in Ohio.
Just got a GOTV call from Bush. Quote: “Ohio is very tight, razor thin, so if you haven’t voted …”
Lines have died down across the street at the community center.
I think we did OK here in Montgomery County. Greene County, next door reports “almost everyone in line had Bush stickers on their Mercede.”
Real data not yet available.
53-47/300
Bostonian: a vote doesn’t send a message as specific as that, unfortunately. It could send the message that I approve of Bush’s entire agenda, which I don’t. I want us to stay on the offensive, and couldn’t care less if it makes Europe or others irritable. But in many other respects I reject the base Bush has been courting, and can’t be counted among them.
The most offensive canard from pundits is the idea that those of us who support Bush on the war on terror are “fearful”, whereas Dems are “angry”. Wrong. I’m angry too – at the jihadis, and at those on the left who can barely get their pupils to dilate on that subject (but say the word “Halliburton”…)
To: Roger L. Simon, our gracious host…and all the people who I’ve spoken with, or listened to here over the past year or so…’specially the regulars:
I need a little help here.
Remind me again, just how many conversations we’ve had that pivoted on the occurence, perception, or issue of of media bias or journalistic malfeasance?
Exit polls? Media exit polls starting at noon eastern? Pffft. And pish and tosh, too.
I’ll be happy to wait until tonight to experience any angst or flutters, thanks.
Maybe it’s a military thing. If you’ve trained hard enough for a mission, by the time you actually step off the ramp for real the moment should become one of release.
We’ve done the debate. We’ve all voted, near as I can tell. There’s nothing else to do but see what the numbers say AFTER THE BALLOTS ARE COUNTED.
Chill, people. We’ve done our part. Smoke ‘em if you’ve got ‘em, pass around the medicinal canteen if that sort of thing appeals to you, but stand to…stand to and stop worrying until you have something to worry about, o.k.? We have to wait for word from above our pay grade before we will know anything real. Got that?
Good.
The above is a sergeant thing. It most certainly is. It’s one of the most precious gifts I carry from my past. BTW, it took me hanging up my ‘medicinal alcohol’ to figure that out.
It was a beautiful day here in Utah. I have high hopes for a splendid evening, too.
Okay so maybe the Appletinis (recipe posted on earlier thread but here is it is: 1 part apple juice, 1 part sour apple schnapps, 1 part vodka, mix with ice, strain into martini glass) are working but this posted on Kerry spot:
“About a half hour back, I posted word that a senior Bush campaign official was saying, “Ohio is won, Florida is won, and Pennsylvania is tied.” Then Shannon Coffin noted a White House source saying, “Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida.”
Now some unnamed source is telling Red State is saying “it is over.”
Folks, we didn’t like this when the networks did it in 2000, and so I would urge anyone who is still thinking of voting to go out and do it, whether the buzz is your guy is up or not. The GOP-heavy panhandle is voting until 7 central standard time, 8 pm Eastern. So there is no reason to not vote, no matter who you support.
UPDATE: Middle Cheese checks in again. “Just checked in with former colleagues in the White House and on the Bush-Cheney campaign. They are confident that they will win both Ohio and Florida.”
He also says that the GOP has a list of documented Democratic voter intimidation cases longer than your arm. Or, longer than a John Kerry speech. Or, longer than John Edwards spends fussing with his hair. You get the idea.”
I have no friggin idea whether this is real or not. But you know Im goin’ to adopt the librul view – invent your own reality and then it will become true. To avoid bad news put hands over ears keep repeating – “I can’t hear you, I can’t hear you…”
Ugh. I hate these times when I want to get older faster. How perverse is that?
Charlie, Catherine, et al,
Yeah, I don’t like those sort of problems either. I suspect that they are *more* difficult for the mathematically inclined. As puzzles, fine. Once you learn the “tricks” they become easier. Crosswords are similar, lots of standard clues and overused words; a little practice makes a big difference.
Tmj
Ditto.
Since we panicked over the Drudge’s bad news morning exit polls, are we entitled to celebrate his good news exit polls?
Via the Corner:
Bush up 7 in NH.
Tim:
Just a thought. Perhaps the early exit poll number were put out by a speculator with the sole intent of going short on Bush or the real Market. Stocks also tanked this afternoon.
Just a thought.
I have to admit I jumped on it because it confirmed my own prediction.
Everybody remember the time zone is Central in FL’s panhandle which his heavily military, military-dependent businesses, and retired vets.
Those people (in the workforce) just got off work in the last hour.
So that hsould help pull FL back toward Bush.
This is the area that got screwed over in 2000 by premature announcements of a win for Gore.
Penwil:
Why the hell not! Skol to NH!
Front page, wsj.com: Bush 57% Kerry 42% (AP 6:49 PM EST) Still exit polling…I…must…take…salt…
Fox is starting to call states.
If the Panhandle and FL west didn’t learn their lesson last time……
I finally got in to Instapundit.com and it says that they’re under DOS attack. It makes sense that the main conservative blogs would be under attack. Prevents the dissemination of relevant information to the righties.
National B 55% K 44%
Remeber all: These are still exit polls
MSNBC Electoral calls (still exit polls people) B 34, K 3
Associated Press ProjectionsIndiana – BushKentucky-BushGeorgia-BushVermont-KerryNothing yet for New Hampshire, Virginia, South Carolina.
OMG, Timmah! The wsj.com report has already fallen to 54-45 (B-K). I don’t like the trend! Just kidding folks! Have a drink, calm down, the Bush team will pull this out and tomorrow we’ll be listening to the pissing and moaning from supporters about how it should have been a huge blowout and from the ABB camp about how the election was stolen.
Links, John, links!
Among other things, that would be EXACTLY what I predicted on the vote. You KNOW how much I like being right….
Well, there is the old saying that people usually get the government they deserve.
I have difficulties accepting that Americans would allow blatant propaganda to turn them into spineless weasels like the French, but it is not inconceivable. We are all humans, after all.
So, I shall grimly enjoy every day of Kerryís administration, including the headline in NYT: ìOsama Breaks His Promise, NYC Bombed Again. Why ? Asks M. Moore, We Did Not Vote For Bush!î (well, not really).
It will also be ìfunî to watch Kerryís effects on economy, except that here we have a sliver of hope that the Congress will curb his worst excesses.
What with that, Kerryís speaking style and his utter ineptness, and Empress Teresa kind appreciation of the ìlittle peopleî we can be assured of the country turning inevitably conservative. Just as Karl Rove promised. The only tricky bit is to make sure that for the next 4 years none of us finds oneself in any of the future ìGround Zerosî. And that everybody converts assets into krugerands.
Things in the Netherlands are going to hell, thanks to their politically correct attitudes toward the criminals in their muslim community. France and Sweden are moving in that direction as well. Soon we’ll be reading about IED’s along the streets of Amsterdam, Paris, and Stockholm.
I hear Kerry plans to change the official language to French. Arabic will be a required second language, for reading the Koran.
Charlie:
I may be in Colorado Springs next Monday night. I have to brief the boss who is question my mother-of-all-roadtrips.
jerry:
Great minds think alike, when I saw the markets I thought the same damn thing. That was a bunch of money flying around.
Did we win or lose?
Oh, that would be from the states that already have results showing. *sigh*
Did Brokaw announce the FLA polls will be closing shortly?
If so, they’re doing it again.
Sorry Charlie (love saying that, reminds me of Tuna for some reason) these are TV calls. No link available.
Tmj: stand to and stop worrying until you have something to worry about, o.k.?
Ever read The Inner Game Of Tennis? A fine book. I’m practicing the inner game of poll-watching.
Looks like Repubs pick up a senate seat GA – Isakson (Zell’s seat)
I just talked to a friend of mine with RNC in Florida- he’s telling me the RNC knows its got somewhere between 120-125k absentee votes for Bush. Those won’t get counted until Thursday. He says quite a few of those ballots are troops serving overseas.
If Bush wins, thats one more debt of gratitude we owe to our men and woman in uniform.
I bought lunch for 5 servicemen home on leave a few days ago and I have to tell you, it felt great. No matter what happens in this election, our troops are heroes and should be treated accordingly.
Here ya go, Charlie. 34 down, click…click…click… 236 to go (exit polls, of course).
Wow – I must have a totally different kind of psychology or something. Having followed the pro-Kerry media spin, the detestable anti-Bush vitriole over the past few years and all of it – I voted for Bush because I beleive that he is a very decent man who has done a hell of a job in confronting our post 9/11 world, restoring our economy after 9/11 and so on – and done it with a tremendous amount of strength and dignity – in the face of lies, and domestic anti-American sentiment which has bordered on treason (Michael Moore comes easily to mind). But to tell the truth – I wouldn’t wish what is coming in the next 4 years on anyone. I am 100% certain that we will be hit with a major attack on our soil in the next 4 years – and that the economy will take a huge nosedive as a consequence – just as it did after 9/11. If that happens on Kerry’s watch – so be it. Especially if he has managed to turn back significant portions of the Patriot Act – or gotten his ACLU friends lined up defending Guantanamo prisoners who happily return to the battlefield after swearing to the virtuous libs that they have renounced terrorism. Sounds a bit like Andrew Sullivan with his platitudes about getting the Dems to take responsibility for the WOT but that’s not how I mean it. If Kerry wins I actually expect the extinction of the Democratic party as we know it in 4 years, especially if moveon and their ilk manage to elect him through voter fraud. Have at it and good luck and may you reap what you have sown…….
Ohio closes in 6 minutes. Bet its too close to call though
Off of polipundit poster:
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! You gotta be kidding!! A Pennsylvanian judge has ordered that the absentee ballots not be opened until tomorrow morning because of some ìRepublican discrepencies.î GIVE ME A BREAK!!
I may be in Colorado Springs next Monday night. I have to brief the boss who is question my mother-of-all-roadtrips.
Cool. I’ve got an open email address in my TypeKey page or Roger can email it to you. CS is a ways from here, but who knows.
Hmmm. The boss is in the Springs? We may have mutual friends….
Good link Knucklehead. Thanks. Much easier that wearing out my TV remote. Work for you Charlie (c)?
Caroline.
I was being heavily sarcastic. Nothing annoys me more that people wishing ill to other people or the entire states/countries because of opposing political views.
I want everybody on the planet to be rich and happy. Even the stupid French. We are all in this together, though so many people fail to realize that.
Can someone explain what is up with the Guam voting? Do they just do it for fun? I don’t get it.
Katherine:
Yes. “Freedom for others means safety for ourselves.”
Caroline – Sullivan posted a Larkin poem on his site tonight, and all I could think of was the one that has been banging around my head since 9/11 (sorry I don’t know how to do italics here yet):
Myxomatosis
 
Caught in the center of a soundless field
While hot inexplicable hours go by
What trap is this? Where were its teeth concealed?
You seem to ask.
I make a sharp reply,
Then clean my stick. I’m glad I can’t explain
Just in what jaws you were to suppurate:
You may have thought things would come right again
If you could only keep quite still and wait.
7:32 pm EST
West Virginia – Bush
Charlie:
Boss is in the Pentagon. I am going to visit the stargate.
Go Mountaineers.
*I want everybody on the planet to be rich and happy. Even the stupid French*
Haha, thats a great line Katherine !
Goodness, I’m enjoying Fox + (1/2 vodka + 1/2 red bull).
I’m really hoping Martinez picks up Florida- Betty Castor ran such a negative campaign- I heard one of her ads yesterday, accusing Martinez of (giggle) racism b/c apparently he opposed a hate crime law.
I have a nice Cuban lady as a receptionist and she found a white bitchy lady accusing a hispanic candidate of racism completely ridiculous.
They called Indiana for Bush ages ago, why not South Carolina?
I will know there is voter fraud if Kerry gets over 45% in South Carolina.
Terrye
S. Carolina has only 1% of their precincts in, and that one in a heavily leaning area. They won’t call it until theyt have mo’betta’ data.
Terrye, South Carolina and Virginia were both counted as red, yet no projections yet even though 40 minutes after poll closing. Slow results from key precincts?
Matt;
Thanks for the response. Please don’t take my appeal for calm as a lack of concern. When I used the word “horrible” to describe a Kerry administration I meant it. I was once a rabid dog Reagan hater and when I grew up and voted against Gore I lied about it to my friends because I couldn’t “come out” as bravely as you have.I have stepped out of the closet now and Roger if Bush wins you will not believe how nasty some of your former “friends” will behave towards you. I am just hoping for the best while prepping myself for the worst. Smoke ‘em if ya got ‘em.
Just thought I’d say hi from across the world (“the world is watching” and all that).
Megapundit reports that Bush has almost 57% in Florida with 3.1% counted. Is that still too soon to make anything out of?
http://www.megapundit.com/results2004.php
Terrye
S.C. now reporting 6% of precincts, 60% Bush, 39 Kerry; still not called until key counties report.
This is probably an overreaction to quick calls in the 2000 and 2002 elections. Even CBS doesn’t want to look too stupid. [I know its hard to believe.] I don’t expect quick calls in any swing state unless some huge numbers are posted one way or another.
Observation: I know why election coverage requires talking heads. Not much goes on in between calls. Doing the election on the web is like Tolstoy’s description of an Opera without music. Entirely ridiculous. The best way to watch the results is in a pub. Timing was wrong in 2000 when I was in London but I watched the 1996 results at the Naked Iguana in San Antonio.
Eric all as well,
Remember, these are exit polls, not real vote counts. Do not think this is the same!
The exit polls with credible sources, and enough areas reporting can be considered statistically significant.
Florida? Not enough counties to be valid yet.
Kevin – considering how nasty people are to me for my failure to accept that Bush has a tail, I can’t even imagine their response if I were a wholehearted supporter.
Yeah but Katherine – if there’s another attack as big or bigger than 9/11 and everyone has to be poor and sad – pardon me if I hope its on Kerry’s watch rather than Bush’s. Then all those who so vehemently wished it upon themselves can stew in their own juices and I can just go back to my small real life , shaking my head at their folly but knowing it was inevitable all along, as opposed to sweating out Bush’s entire presidency on the blogs, shaking my fist at the injustice of it all.
Looking good for Dubya.
George Bush: 58%
Electoral votes: 39
John Kerry: 42%
Electoral votes: 3
Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Georgia go to Bush. Vermont goes to Kerry.
The MSM is at it again.
Bush and Kerry Trade Early Victories
Vermont is a trade for GA, IN, KY, or WV? Nevermind all of them?
Matt,
I am drinking Zin myself, but from the bottom of my stash, as the good stuff would be totally wasted on me at this point.
BTW, this is a first time that this chicken ñ that is me ñ wore a little Republican button in public (though not to the hairdresser, imagine what she could do to me!). As you can see, I am alive and well. I also report that I was absolutely shocked to see a big flag with GOP elephant on a house down my street. This means that there are more than 5 Bush voters in SF!
If we lose this, I wonder how much we should blame ourselves for being afraid to speak up.
PS. Can anybody here recommend a good psychiatrist in the Bay Area? Either way it goes I WILL need a therapy.
NRO sez Dems going to court to keep polls open.
What a wonderful bunch of people commenting here. I feel much better now.
From what I understand Florida is so far:
Bush: 57.1%
Kerry: 42.0%
Maybe I’m reading that wrong.
AllenS
(and all)
Let’s not get too pleased with the results so far. Big states and a lot of electoral votes to go. They won’t all go our way. (will they?)
I mentioned yesterday evening that AP/MSM would hold good news in the SE. The VA-SC results are being held until the Central states close.
Brian -
In individual competition of any type, one method of winning is to control what the other side sees.
For fifty years the Left in this country unconciously used the media during the campaign and on election day for that tactic; for instance, CBS wasn’t surprised they got caught running a story based on forgeries.
They were surprised anyone cared. Still. In 2004. That Dan Rather isn’t in retirement right now is all you need to know about the inertia still at work in old media.
I did not follow news today. Yes, I blogged more than I originally intended, but I just stayed the hell away from radio, computer, and TV until about an hour ago. After a quick look back at the day, I decided that the original exit poll dump around noon to two local Utah time may go down in history as the high water mark of media manipulation of elections.
If they really believed the numbers they put up in that period, they wouldn’t have stopped all a sudden as they did. The repeated the same figures (especially Ohio, especially CBS) for another hour and then switched to “too close to call” or “conflicting data”.
They don’t have either of those memes in front of them. What they do have is a fervent hope that nobody will remember those early exit polls they released today by this time tomorrow.
There will be careers quietly ended tonight – not only in media, but polling outfits to. I hesitate to mention any names for fear of insulting anyone unfairly, but for weeks ZOGBY’S polls have had all the precision of a blind man trying to kill a mosquito with a shotgun.
They publish, we listen and judge…but somewhere along the line a check has to be written for crap like this to happen. There won’t always be a Soros shovelling out fifties – especially after tonight – and I think we may see some significant changes because of it.
Of course the best part of a Kerry win would be that my brother in NY, my sister in LA, and my best friend in DC would be safe (all blue). I know it cause Osama said so…….
“What a wonderful bunch of people commenting here. I feel much better now.”
I agree. Found this place the other day and quit going to many of the others which are full of paranoid conservative. My blood pressure couldn’t handle the ups and downs of their comments.
This place is much more relaxed.
Sandy P: Surprise, surprise. Screw Ashcroft for letting them get away with it before.
Electoral projection (so far) from MSNBC B 66; K 77
Charlie
it’s exactly the same problem — but this time I did it in German: “eins, zwei, drei
And meanwhile I can tell you on reasonably good authority that nobody in Singapore, Japan, or China is sitting around wrestling with these things.
No, in SIngapore, Japan & China they’ve got first graders learning how to subtract with regrouping based on subtraction-within-twenty and the inverse property of addtion and subtraction.
So today my son’s teacher told him: “This may take you a whole two weeks to do.”
U.S. kids finish high school almost a full two years behind their peers in other countries, and we’re supposed to drop everything and spend two weeks figuring out that the math problem we’re trying to do isn’t a math problem.
8 pm EST projections
Projected for Kerry
CT – DEL – DC – IL – MD – MS – NJ
Projected Bush
OK – AB – TN
ME splits : Kerry 3 Bush 1
Open:
FLA PA NH MO OH SC VA
Kerry leads Bush 77-66
Can I open my eyes now?
I’ve had a couple of hours off from the election (Mixed Practice and Test accomplished; we’re ditching the Investigation) . . . so . . . I’m gonna dive back in now and see what’s what.
Erik,
Too early to make too much of but the numbers so far are in the right direction. Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are the keys. So far the Red (Bush) is remaining red and the Blue (Kerry) remains blue.
Katherine- I made sure I stocked up on the spirits on the way home tonight. I am taking a day off tomorrow, for the first time in about a year.
So, I get the impression that most of the Gore states are going to Kerry- and Bush states “look” like they’re going for Bush. But if its another Gore/Bush split situation, Kerry would actually have to pick up a 1 big or 2 smaller Bush states.
Is that right ? I must admit, I’m a bit distressed it was not a landslide.
It should be noted, senate conservatives seem to be winning.
I don’t have much to say, but just want you all to know that reading this thread is keeping me sane as I watch the news.
Got one last phone call at 7:35 from ACT to remind me to get out and vote. Rumors of a radio show talking about Dems suing to keep Ohio polls open longer. I’m looking for any links right now.
George Bush: 57%
Electoral votes: 66
John Kerry: 43%
Electoral votes: 77
Bush gets Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee. Kerry gets Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC.
Something weird happening with Ohio.
Florida has its precincts being reported and vote counts coming in. They won’t call it, but you can see it on the scrolling bottom of the TV.
Nothing. Nothing at all – on Ohio.
What’s up?
Erik,
BTW, this is a good place to check for quick updates.
Fox just gave S.Carolina to Bush…
You are making a good point, Caroline, but the problem is that an attack is probably going to happen, whoever is in the WH. Now, should that occur would you rather have a guy there who would coldly assess the situation, assemble military team and deliver most effective blow against the perpetrators and their sponsors, or somebody who would take a opinion poll as to what to do next and/or run to Kofi and Chirac to ask for a permission to issue a condemnation of the attack?
I will grant you that with the appeasing policies such an attack is more probable on Kerryís watch, but it is going to be a very cold comfort to turn to all my intellectual sophisticated friends and say: you reap what you sow.
I do not intend to bury myself in my little life if Kerry wins. I am thinking about volunteering for the CA GOP, and God knows that would be totally new experience for me (in principle, I am a libertarian and I share Mark Twainís opinions about politicians).
S. Carolina now called for Bush. Bush electoral projection 74; Kerry 77
National Bush Kerry percentages are holding up pretty well: Bush 56; Kerry 43
Katherine,
I’m with you when it comes to noodling along with a Kerry presidency. Outside of voting, I’m not a political activist, but this just might put me over the edge. I have to be careful, since I don’t have tenure (can’t really overstate that…I think it was Charlie who on another thread sympathized), but I would like to do something more definitive. I think I may be the faculty advisor for the Young Republicans next year…that would work and be seen as simply taking care of students…
Katherine,
I prefer the guy who sees it as a war and aggressively attacks the enemy on their terrain and our timetable and pace. Bush will do that. Kerry won’t. While that doesn’t mean attacks will be impossible but it does mean they will be harder to pull off for the enemy.
Knucklehead,
Thanks, I’ve been checking that site as well as the Megapundit map.
It’s 2.15am here now, and I’ll try to stay up as long as possible. (Hope I’ll be able to sleep for a little while before I got to go to work)
Powerline is reporting that Daschle is attacking absentee ballots from college students. Fascinating.
Katherine;
Why does everyone assume that there will be another attack in the US? Everybody thought there would be one by election time. All we got was a video. I looked at the intelligence and said nope, no way, can’t do it. Fortunately, my prediction for an attack has been more accurate [so far] then my electioneering. I think we are at the same point in the GWOT as we were in Summer of 1943 in the Battle of Atlantic. The U-Boat threat had been operationally defeated although ASW forces still were required to secure the Sea Lines of Communications.
We still have to aggressively go after Al Qaeda and contain rogue regimes but it has become to dangerous for Islamic terrorists to operate outside the muslim world and the fringes of Eurabia.
which news show are we watching–for reliability and honest comments? i bailed from hardball last night.
Via RealClearPolitics the Ohio results as they come in from the Ohio Secretary of State’s office
John Lynch
The pollsters get up to the same capers here and considering the amount of money that seems to be made,this should be treated like insider trading.
Boohoo. Global monitors find faults.
“As for electronic voting, Gould said he preferred Venezuela’s system over the calculator-sized touchpads in Miami.
“Each electronic vote in Venezuela also produces a ticket that voters then drop into a ballot box,” Gould said. “Unlike fully electronic systems, this gives a backup that can be used to counter claims of massive fraud.”
Venezuela had trouble implementing the system, Gould added, because the ticket printers kept breaking down.
You’ve got to be kidding me. No mention of the massive fraud, eh?
I won’t move off FNC except to get away and watch something else entirely. Watched the last 5 minutes of True Lies, for example.
Jerry – one of the best lines I heard re: the UBL tape was, paraphrasing, “He’d like to send a bomb but he only managed to send a tape.” I’ll take that any day
(Sorry, can’t supply attribution.)
Can someone tell me what I am missing?
According to this http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php New Jersy, Maryland, Maine, and Conn. dont’ cloase until 7:00 PST.
At 5:25 PST they have been called for Kerry based on 0% precincts reporting.
Interesting stat via Powerline:
Bush’s lead is nearly double Martinez’s in percentage terms. This means there are large numbers of Democrats crossing over to vote for Bush in Florida.
About the ballot . . . well, they finally found his card – seems his last name was listed as first name. Sheesh . . . the neighbor who was working the polls called Bruce and he was able to hotfoot it over, just before the polls closed. Alas, Maryland to Kerry . . .
knuclehead:
I was inspired by a same or similar quote.
BeckyJ
Thanks. Whew! I was getting a little (OK, more than a little) frantic for news.
PeterUK
You surely don’t mean to hold our esteemed fourth estate to standards do you? Why … that would be … censorship. gasp.
Charlie
Then I realized it wasn’t going to fit to anything less than about sixth degree
OK, well that was my problem: I have no idea what ‘sixth degree’ means.
Fox gives NC & VA to Bush
OldManRick,
NJ closes at 7PM EST (not PST). I haven’t seen any of the data but they are projecting for Kerry. I’d like to see the % breakdown.
If you go to Drudge you can get a breakdown of each state. Look at NJ:
“7 of 6285 precincts – 0 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 866 – 51 percent
x- John F. Kerry Dem 816 – 48 percent”
If this is current, then Bush is winning NJ. Now we know why this state was called. I just looked at CT as well, what the hell is going on? 0 precincts reporting! Is this info just not current?
102 down, 168 to go.
I’ve been following CNN’s coverage. Their banners show Kerry with a 12 point lead in Ohio, and 19 points in New hampshire. Don’t know if these numbers mean much. CNN has given New Jersey to Kerry already, but the last poll numbers posted showed them tied.
Knucklehead-
Powerline also has a story about a Daschle lawyer getting arrested on an Indian reservation for intimidating voters. Apparently he dared them to do something about it and so they called the sheriff. Heh.
“Fox gives NC & VA to Bush”
Duh. I’ve been laughing my ass off about this. Virginia a swing state? Not yet. Once Northern Va extends down past Fredericksburg, then yeah, definitely a swing state.
Bush leading over Kerry in Tampa area, says Jay Cost.
John -
You’re welcome. I’ve got at least three windows open and I’m surfing like mad searching for news. Hubby is looking through his favorite sites as well.
Lindenen,
Just guessing, but I presume they are projecting based on exit polls without waiting for some significant % of precincts to report in. Not sure why. FNC waited for a reasonable portion of VA, NC, and SC precincts to report before they projected.
If Kerry’s leading in OH, then why do they need to keep the polls open?
And since the youngsters didn’t turn out like they hoped, what does this mean?
Cumulative Projections as of 8:37PES
Alabama Bush 9
Arkansas Open 6
Connecticut Kerry 7
Delaware Kerry 3
D.C. Kerry 3
Florida Open 27
Georgia Bush 15
Illinois Kerry 21
Indiana Bush 13
Kentucky Bush 8
Maine Bush 1 Kerry 3
Maryland Kerry 10
Massachusetts Kerry 12
Mississippi Kerry 6
Missouri Open 11
New Jersey Kerry 15
North Carolina Bush 15
Ohio Open 20
Oklahoma Bush 7
Pennsylvania Open 21
South Carolina Bush 8
Tennessee Bush 11
Vermont Kerry 3
Virginia Bush 13
West Virginia Bush 5
————————————-
Bush 94 Kerry 77 (totals not checked)
John Lynch,
Yes use the Al Capone technique,forget freedom of speech,let them witter all they want,screw them for racketeering.
Oh, damn. NJ changed and Kerry’s up now.
BTW, I want to thank you all for helping keep me sane. I never followed an election this closely.
BTW2, is IL really 80+% for Kerry?!?! I realize its red, but that’s flaming red.
Lindenen-
It is fun to watch them dance around calling states. I’m guessing that after the 2000 FL early call debacle nobody wants to be the one to call a major state too early; they’re erring on the side of caution as they see it, but it does make for some interesting commentary!
lindenen:
I am not so sure that Bush didn’t do better in NVA this time. Turnout was huge today and I suspect that a lot Bush voter decided to show to pad the popular vote. Republican votes in NVA are not worth much in local races. They only “count” in state races. Also there is a hidden Republican vote in NVA. All the military but they vote absentee in other states
Knuckle–
No way 80% is accurate. In Chicago, maybe, but not when you throw in Suburban Cook, the collar counties and downstate. Bush, BTW, has not visited here since about March. They gave up on us months ago.
“Why does everyone assume that there will be another attack in the US?”
jerry,
Only because the terrorists have to be lucky only once, while we have to be right all the time. They will keep trying while we will forget that there is any danger, as so many of us already did. The odds are a bit against us in this regard. In addition, if we slacken off, if we give the terrorist the desired ìbreatherî they will get a chance to regroup and try again that much harder. I will say that if next 4 years pass without an attack, our chances for avoiding future attacks will increase. Personally I would like to see Syria and Iran taken care off in those 4 years, but that is up to next administration.
I never thought that another attack is inevitable, only very probable. Even after 9-11, when everybody was predicting immediate future attacks I was certain that this would not be the case because after swift identification of the perpetrators all their buddies would have to go to the ground and splinter. However, given a chance they will try again. They did so in the past.
So much for an analysis form this ìterrorist expertî with a broadband connection…
Polls are closed in Texas. Why no call. Does anybody expect Kerry to carry Texas….
Ot, sorry but I really get alot out of PeterUK’s posts here- the moniker suggets a british contributer and I’m damn happy that the US is being supported (at least for the moment) by folks in Britain. I’ve got alot of British clients, I really enjoy British folks and Peter exemplifies the best of em.
PeterUK, thanks bro!
NJ back to tied. Fascinating. If we can’t make this blue states red, at least we’ll deliver popular vote.
Well, Kerry seems up in Ohio, but the counties reporting are only the Cleveland counties (80%+ of the total)
The rural counties are coming in slowly, but 9 to 7 for Bush. Still nothing on the SouthWest counties (Dayton, Cinci, etc.)
Katherine:
We only slack off if JFK wins. For the purpose of winning hearts and minds Bush becomes a lame duck tomorrow. If he wins he has no political constraints and if he loses Bin Laden will interpret that as a surrender. Given Kerry’s likely plans for Iraq and Israel Bin Laden just may decide to let time do its work as we become Islamicized like the Europeans.
Knucklehead-
Interesting. I can’t get into the official NJ election site (I think their server is overloaded). RealClearPolitics is calling NJ for Kerry. That’s a big “who knows?!” right now.
If DtP does not deliver Ohio, I will personally hunt him and he will rue the day he met with Katherineís Wrath!
Boss is in the Pentagon. I am going to visit the stargate.
Oh God damn it. Everyone gets better gigs than I do. You get to visit the stargate, all I ever get is stupid DISA in stupid Slidell.
Old Man Rick
The times on that chart are EST (PST+3)…
New Jersey, Maryland, Maine, & Connecticut all closed at 8pm EST = 5pm PST
Repost:
Poll closing map with electoral vote chart
Poll Closing table with UTC time listings
“We only slack off if JFK wins.”
jerry,
That is precisely why am undergoing quiet heart attack hereÖ
Katherine
Have faith. DtP won’t let us down (nor Becky, nor me)
Ohio now within two points and the Cleveland area has already been counted. Rural and Southwest still to go. Should be more than enough.
PS. Can anybody here recommend a good psychiatrist in the Bay Area? Either way it goes I WILL need a therapy.
Jamie, I think she’s playing your song.
Charlie:
For every stargate there is Omaha. Of course I am going to Hawaii as well but this surprise people, but a sort trip to Hawaii is really hard on the body.
OK, whassup with the slight “country” twinge to Susan Estrich’s accent?
Caroline
If Kerry wins I actually expect the extinction of the Democratic party as we know it in 4 years
My husband (ABB voter) says, “Kerry’s presidency will be destroyed by Iraq.”
As to attacks in the U.S., I think Jerry’s right. It’s extremely dangerous and/or logistically difficult for Islamists to operate outside the ME & Europe.
My brain is so fried that I can’t remember the details now, but that’s more or less what the French “terror judge” said when he was here. My feeling is that the Bin Laden tape confirms his judgment. ‘I asked for a terrorist attack and all I got was this lousy videotape.’
Wolf Blitzer is now reporting that Chris Dodd and Harry Reid are already vying for Daschle’s leadership position. Says a lot about what his own party thinks is the outcome.
Ohio: Bush 49% and Kerry 45%!!!! Bush now leading both Florida and Ohio!
lindenan:
Great find! Actually go to CNN interactive map. This is what they have with 11% reporting at 8:52 Bush 183,702 (49%) and Kerry 189,392 (51%). There is a cool county breakdown. It looks to me like many of the counties havent even reported yet.
Okay so how come they can’t call FL with 38% (!!!!) reporting and Bush at 56 Kerry at 43%. What shit are they trying to pull now?
Katherine/Jerry – gee Jerry I sure hope you’re right and Katherine – If another attack happens the only state sponsor I could conceivably see pinning it upon is Iran. (Is there some other state scenario I’m missing?). Well a two-fer would certainly be interesting but what about all those Iranian pro-democracy forces that definitely don’t want that option and wondering if we could even realistically carry it off militarily? Of course neither Bush nor Kerry was ever grilled about – nor did either really volunteer much – about what they would realistically do about Iran. Sorry about the way off topic – keeping my mind off the polls I guess and trying to convince myself of all the possible reasons I could live with a Kerry win in order to forestall possible disappointment……
Bush now 4% up in Ohio!
However, lots of counties still reporting only 1 or 2%.
Local TV has 2-3 hour waits at the polls (Cinci and Cleveland) even though closing time has passed.
Law here is that anyone in line at 7:30 (closing time) gets to vote.
So, the polls are still open.
Could still go .. well .. anywhere.
More on the Corner:
Just heard: NJ TOO CLOSE TO CALL!
I am feeling really good. Time to make more appletinis!
FIRST GOOD NEWS I’VE SEEN [Michael Graham]
Watching Susan Estrich battling defensively on FNC, saying the ìpeople in Boston say if the exit polls are right then Bush wins.î Her entire message was one of annoyance at the lack of alignment between the exit polls and the results thus far.
Joe Lockhart didnít look too happy on FNC, either. Are the wheels falling off for the Democrats just as they reach the finish line?
Posted at 08:56 PM
EMAIL FROM A BUSHIE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
“Virtually every county in Florida that is mostly reported has swung to us since 2000, the median being something like 5-6% in terms of vote margin. Weíll see how the Gold Coast comes in, but with numbers like this we should not have a problem.”
ìNJ back to tied. Fascinating.î
Fascinating? Fascinating?!?!Ö
While I seek therapy, Knuckle observes this race with a detachment of a space alien!
Oops just f*cked up. More on the Corner should come AFTER appletinis!!
Just an FYI, and sorry if someone beats me to this, but the early Kerry surge in Ohio was the result of Cuyahoga County reporting early. (Cuyahoga is basically Cleveland and the surrounding area — heavily urbanized, heavily union. As Blue as Ohio gets.)
Don’t know if this has been posted but there is EXTREMELY good news from Florida.
Orange County (Orlando), which is in the heart of Florida’s crucial I-4 Corridor and was won by Gore in 2000 looks to be voting for Bush this year.
With 233 or 263 precincts reporting, Bush has 123,223 (51.16 %) and Kerry has 116,214 (48.25).
Well, I’m home from work. The television is off and will stay that way unless I can watch Gilmore Girls uninterrupted by meaningless vote massaging “news” bumfodder…
Since the only response a civilized person would give upon being challenged for his vote is, “what business is it of yours?”, I will pay no attention to exit polls. Matt Drudge appears to have bought into his own rep (I MUST BREAK THE STORY) rather than do his leg work and has been played for a fool.
Polls were crowded in my precinct this morning. Got there at 7:15 am and the line was already around the block. Took till 8:50 to get to a polling booth but everyone was quite civil and cheerful while I was there, no one discussed politics except in the most general way.
At my polling place they had replaced the old chad-punch with a virtually identical device that left an ink dot on the ballot instead… but if you weren’t careful, the stylus wouldn’t reach the ballot. Wonder how many people that tripped up?
Now to eat dinner and go about my evening. I’ll be in and out, guys and gals… hang in there. It’s like skydiving. Once you leave the airplane you’re gonna hit the ground and that’s all there is to it, no sense fretting at this point.
OK, well that was my problem: I have no idea what ‘sixth degree’ means.
Well, you’ve heard of getting the third degree, right? The sixth degree is twice as bad.
(Would you actually like to know?)
New Projections 9PM EST
Projected Bush:
Kansas
Nebraska 4/5
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming
Projected Kerry:
Nebraska 1/5
New York
Rhode Island
Not Called:
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Florida
Mississippi
Arkansas
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Bush 155 – Kerry 112
George Bush: 54%
Electoral votes: 155
John Kerry: 45%
Electoral votes: 112
Bush gets Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, South Dakota en North Dakota. Kerry gets New York en Rhode Island.
Caroline:
I didn’t say the probability is zero under Bush. I said I don’t see one in the offing. I think as long as we press forward on their turf then we are safe. I also think we are on verge of victory in the Sunni triangle which will be tremendous defeat for UBL and Co. If Kerry wins then none of those things will happen. UBL will then be free to go on the offensive again.
Wait, did they un-call NJ or not?
If they did, time to chill the champagne.
Mort Krondake on Fox is just now discovering that exit polls aren’t reliable! Classic!
Katherine,
No detachment, but I do have my heart rate back under 200. NJ went BIG for Gore and Clinton. We may not go for Bush, but as far as the popular vote goes we’ll eat up a ton of the small margin Gore got in 2000. I’m growing increasingly calm re: EC votes and I don’t want the Barking Moonbats to have the popular vote whine this time around.
Bush now up by 7% in Ohio. 411,000 votes counted. Still very low reporting.
Matt Evans,
Thank you.You might like read this extract from an op ed in the Times.
“Itís easy to understand why the political Establishment wanted Lord Halifax to succeed Neville Chamberlain in 1940. But thereís a reason why it really couldnít be anyone but Churchill. And no one can deny that John Kerry, the victor of this yearís presidential debates, is the choice of most intelligent and sophisticated people in Britain. But thereís a reason why I still hope America votes for George W. Bush today.
That reason? Itís one word. Will.
In 1940 the British people understood that the virtues that had counted in a time of peace were no longer the qualities needed when fighting a war. The diplomacy practised by Chamberlain, designed to avert conflict, had failed.”
You are not alone brother.
I’m still worried about the rumored Missourification of OH, though this is somewhat reassuring.
TimJUtah
Great post!
Which leads me to reflect that I was one of those teenagers who would have done well with an enforced stint in the military . . .
Changing tacks, I like this prayer Hugh Hewitt linked to today:
Although I’m not religious in this way (I don’t think or pray about God’s will, though I’d probably be better off if I did), this expresses the resolution ‘ve been trying to come to about the election. I’m going to be bitterly disappointed if it’s John Kerry, but I’m going to try to end the bitterness part sooner, not later. I’m going to hope for the best, and try to see the best.
For me, this prayer works just as well, and means the same thing, if you substitute the words democracy or America for Your word and Your way, and you beseech the fates instead of the God of the Bible.
http://stones-cry-out.blogspot.com/2004/11/for-there-is-no-authority-except-from.html
Peter:
Are you in London? I spent 2000 at the O’Conner Don and the Clifton-Ford Hotel.
The final precincts in Orange County Florida seem to be trending to Kerry — the race, with 240 of 263 reporting is now 50.49% Bush to 48.93 Kerry.
Colorado has rejected the split-electoral referendum. There’s now no question: Whoever wins the state gets all the electoral votes.
Folks, Michael Barone on Fox was just pointing out that, in county after county that has already reported in Florida, the counties are going for Bush even when they went slightly to Gore, and Bush counties are going to Bush big time.
New Jersey is apparently pretty close, close enough that it’s sounding suddenly “too close to call.”
Susan Estrich sounds like someone should check her purse for sleeping pills and sharp things.
I don’t want to be too enthusiastic, but I think there are going to be some really surprised MSM talking heads tonight.
Rattler–
Is that for the county or the state?
Help, I’m suffering from media overload. Several blogs, Fox up on the TV (can’t stand the smirking on some other channels), and listening to Hugh Hewitt over the net — http://www2.krla870.com/listen/.
Hugh is predicting a landslide victory for Bush, so listening to him is good for the heartrate …
Well, you all might be getting to know more about Ohio than you really wanted to know. The county by county results are slow coming in, and I suspect that we might hold up resolution this evening. So, in the interest in keeping you all as informed past what you really want to know: here are the State Board of Elections county-by-count results. Pretty low reporting, but I think we all are going to be waiting up for answers and here where they are going to be found.
Betting Anyone?
About three hours ago, Tradesports and Futures Trading showed a Bush bet at 28 (vs. 72 for Kerry). I suggested that it was time to make money. I can’t get into either site (they are swamped) but believe anyone that invested is very much ahead at this point.
Jerry,
No,I lived in London for a while but moved back up North to the moorlands of Lancashire.Hope you had a good time,although it was irksome finding your local pub suddenly closing its doors and charging admission,so I celebrated it the following year.
OH SecState has Bush 53% to Kerry 46%; but only 6+% of precincts reporting. FL showing Bush 51% Kerry 47%. PA Dept. of State says it will begin posting unofficial results after 8pm. It’s 9:30 here and no results. Hmmmmm….Eddie Rendell up to something?
156 down, 114 to go!
AP has called Mississippi and Louisiana for Bush.
Michigan (expected Kerry) still not called.
oops! Sorry. 169 down, 101 to go. My bad.
Starting to breath a bit easier and hoping it won’t be a long night . . . Bush sure is raking in all those poker chips, isn’t he?
Ahahaha. “Hello Mr. Nader. How does it feel to be completely irrelevant?”
Folks, I’m going offline for a couple hours, or 2000 words, whichever comes first. Hold things down in my absence.
It sure appears as if the voting population treated the exit pollsters with all the respect that they deserve.
The Times has cheering news.I don;t know if the link will work.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/section/0,,11069,00.html
ABC’s Projection at 9:35PES
Bush 170 Kerry 112
No call on Ohio, people still voting holding up reporting of returns.
ABC Radio is talking about “marriage gap” in this election rather than “gender gap,” with married people of both genders going heavier for Bush, singles for Kerry. (Pundits are baffled… gee guys, It’s About the Children, duh!).
Ohio governor quoted as saying state may make “days” to count? Anybody else hear about this? Just carried a report interviewing a woman who’s been on line since 2:00 — she says they were told that it may be another 7 hours (!) before everybody gets to vote.
Can anyone ‘splain why Yahoo just clicked to 170 for Bush? It was at 169 but I can’t find the 1 EV state that went for Bush or some change in what was projected.
Sorry, Katherine, but this is fascinating. Anyone in PA who can tell us what’s going on there?
Charlie(Colorado) Sixth degree is impressive, but it is no “Degree Absolute!”
Could be the Maine 2nd district. Maine allocates electoral votes by congressional district plus 2 for the winner of the state.
Peter UK
Link works just fine– thank you for posting it!
Knucklehead, maybe they’re giving Maine’s consolation prize EV to Bush.
Is there a sliver of red in Maine?
Is that where the 1 lone vote came from?
Maine allocates their votes.
PeterUK
The Times link works. Looks similar to the Yahoo! link.
I’m heading to London week after next. Got Ceremony of the Keys tickets. Little Lynch, and Better Lynch are coming, so I guess I get to do the tourist stuff (again.) I’m hoping to relocate my favorite pubs, the ones near the tourist spots and chill while they tour. But I’m sure some amount of quality time will need to be spent as well.
Knucklehead: it may be that one of Maine’s districts flipped Bush.
This CNN site is addictive:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/
Drilled down to Philadelphia county in PA; Kerry’s standing at 80% of the vote there. Wonder how that happened?
Knucklehead-
I’m in Philly. Just heard that Philly is reporting 61,000 votes for Bush to 228,000 for Kerry; however, the PA dept. of State is posting some returns. There are some raw numbers available here, but there are no percentages posted. I think folks are taking their time because we’ve already had numerous fights over absentee ballots (Rendell wanted to cut off the return time which would have cut out a large number of military voters; stuff like that). Local news isn’t really reporting anything of interest yet.
Katherine,
“Why does everyone assume that there will be another attack in the US?”
While you may only be a “broadband analyst” on terrorism, I concur with your assessment. Go back to the first WTC attack in 1993. The terrorists planned and persisted until they pulled off an attack worse than Pearl Harbor on 9-11.
We are not used to being vigilant. We have little in the way of historical memory – unlike most of the world. And, most of all, we would all desire to go back to a world without terrorism. People will begin to discount the probability of an attack the longer we go without one.
As you note, we have to be right 100% of the time in terms of security. The terrorists only have to get lucky once.
The best way to defend ourselves is to be on the offensive, which is one of the reasons I voted for Bush this morning.
PeterUK
*You are not alone brother.*
Thank goodness for that. I have no desire to take a global test but at the same time, American needs its partners- I have nothing but good things to say about Britain, Australia and Poland. I hope that the benefits to each country for their support of America far outweighs the burdens. What do you think about Tony Blair’s election chances ? I will be very interested to watch the British political process in the next year (something I admittedly have not paid enough attention to in the past).
Hum de hum de ho…I stepped out for a couple of hours to shop with the Goddesses and my sis-in-law…did I miss anything?
I like what I’m seeing from here.
My predictions were 57% PV and +300 ECV.
Why does it look like the Dems planned to steal just Ohio and Pennsylvania right now…? What’s taking so long for them to come up on the returns?
Here’s All You Need To Know About Ohio
Follow the Drudge link for Ohio down to the county by county level. There are exactly two counties that will determine the winner of the state of Ohio. These counties are:
1) Franklin (Columbus)
2) Hamilton (Cincinnati)
Those counties, and only those counties, are what you look at. They are the battleground counties in the state: large popluations, votes that could go either way.
As of right now, Bush is up in Franklin based on early results. Hamilton has not reported anything.
bkw, whaddya mean? He’s got a shutout going!
Philly’s only at 80%?
Doesn’t that seem kind of low?
Matt,
I used to watch the British Parliament on C-Span. It is a fascinating to watch the debates.
You are right to cite our true allies as well.
Oops. Link for raw PA numbers here. I’m off to wash the dishes and clear my head a bit. I don’t think my heart rate is up around 200 as Knucklehead, Catherine, and others have mentioned, but I do need to get out of this chair and away from the computer for a bit.
Things are looking good for Bush in Ohio and Florida.
Maybe they’ll be called for Dubya tonight.
CNN now has (at 9:53 PM EST) Bush at 171, Kerry 112.
Bush is still up in Ohio, but with only 15 % of the vote counted. (CNN’s updates have been showing some ridiculous swings in many states. I just saw a banner showing Bush ahead in Delaware by 5, and CNN has already conceded Delaware to Kerry! Horrible reporting!!)
Extremely early returns in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin bode well for Bush. Paul Begala is trying to spin the absentee votes in the heavy Dem south Florida counties as a possible dramatic turnabout in Florida.
I say he’s full of shit, because Florida Jewish Dems are defecting in droves to the Republicans over Israel.
Old Dad’s Crystal Ball:
At 7:55 PM MST, Bush wins 52-46, 300+ ECV.
How do I know? I just do. I know that’s a very Democratic rationale, but that’s tough. As long as I’m being a Democrat, no blood for oil. Bush wins.
I thought PA was called for Kerry?
What have I missed???
Sandy-
Yeah, given how Democratic this city is (rabid, drooling Dems in some cases), it is kind of low (all things are relative). I think there are a lot of closet Bush supporters wandering around this city.
Yahoo is showing all 3 EVs for Kerry. Have a look at DE. Showing pop vote 51-48 for Bush with 47% reporting yet gives the 3 EVs to Kerry. MO still shows tied.
Barrnett:
The reason that terrorist got to plan long term is all that they had to suffer was an occaisional drive by. The domestic CT intelligence community was asleep and the National Intelligence Officer for CT is [he remains in place even after his failure to warn] a notorious Arabist who just before 9-11 who discounted Al Qaeda’s interest in a mass casualty attack on the United States.
Ultimately it is not the public who matters but the senior leadership in White House, Intellience, military and law enforcement communities. If Bush stays in office then that leadership will continue on offensive.
FNC just projected PA for Kerry. I don’t like that, but MN and MI are still showing Bush leading. Who took PA last time?
Utah-
In Ohio, turnout has been massive…somewhere between 71 and 75 percent of registered voters. Problems don’t seem to be systematic, but the simple fact is that certain precincts have been buried.
The North Linden area of Columbus, which is overwhelmingly poor African-Americans, have very few machines, which was based on prior year turnouts, and there are still people waiting in line to vote…it appears to be result of increased turnout and the voter registration drives rather than the machinations of the VRWC.
Areas in Central Ohio that have had high turnouts historically where allocated more machines and seem to have handled the increased volume pretty well. My own experience this morning was impressive…those poll workers knew what they were doing and kept things moving right along.
IEM futures 54/45 Bush
21:00 CST
It was being gamed before. Damn, I wish I’d bought in when Bush was around 15.
I had no problem accessing the site from China!
We as everyone knows closed early. Red and Zell’s seat is now offically ours.
Have enjoyed all of your comments so very much. Have been worried all day about the results.
If this trend continues and GWB gets both the popular vote and the EC, how difficult is it going to be to deal with the demo’s. They I am sure have made some people very upset – they have me.
I cannot get past this “wrong war at the wrong time”.
I for one cannot ever remember being a right war at the right time. History does not work like that or at least the history I studied.
Reporting at Yahoo at this moment in time is good for Bush in WI, MI, MN, MO, and OH. I find it hard to believe that PA is as resoundlingly Kerry as Yahoo is showing. FNC just retracted PA projection for Kerry. PA back in play!
We as everyone knows closed early. Red and Zell’s seat is now offically ours.
Have enjoyed all of your comments so very much. Have been worried all day about the results.
If this trend continues and GWB gets both the popular vote and the EC, how difficult is it going to be to deal with the demo’s. They I am sure have made some people very upset – they have me.
I cannot get past this “wrong war at the wrong time”.
I for one cannot ever remember being a right war at the right time. History does not work like that or at least the history I studied.
Gore took PA.
At this point, with the exit polls so totally whacked, I don’t trust any calls for Kerry. None.
I expect Rendell and co. will have successfully stolen PA in the end, though.
Gore took PA handily.
DTP -
If Utah turnout comes in under seventy percent I’ll be really surprised. No big deal on the national level, but we had some pretty important state issues beyond offices to decide, too.
Glad to hear that there have been few problems (to your knowledge) in Ohio. So far. *grin*.
America. I love this place. Roger’s blog, too, of course.
Occam : Mr. Nader was on Fox, and Brit’s comments were somewhat pointed. e.g. “It does not look like you will be the deciding factor in this race …”
And PA has not been called yet. Was Gore state, and Kerry MUST have it.
Hugh is predicting lots of interesting things in WI and MN area.
Charlie(CO):
you are such a smart guy. There I was looking at Catherine’s math problem and scratching my head and going”…. what the…..” with wichitaboy saying “don’t cheat now”… so I cheated and scrolled down and lo, there was your answer. How did you get it? I was trying to figure out the formula. If I hadn’t cheated I would no doubt still be a nervous wreck right along with Catherine.
John Lynch,
Pity you are not going the 8th to the 14th I could have let you have free tickets for the Olympia Fine Art and Antiques Fair.Covent Garden has a lot of boozers and plenty to do and see.
Natt Evans,
The main consideration is that the Governments opposition is the Conservative party,so we don’t have the same problem as you do with the Democrats.As far as I am concerned Tony can go because of his subserviant policies towards the EU and the fact that outside the WoT his government is a disaster.
My son just told me that Britt Hume was mistaken. There is no PA call for Kerry
Jerry,
I absolutely agree. My point about the public being vigilant is that the eyes and ears of the street can be invaluable. I’m not suggesting a paranoid, spy on your neighbor approach, but an awareness of our surroundings.
If Kerry wins, will he take out another $7 billion from intelligence to pay for healthcare?
Yahoo just reset to 184-112 Bush. Not sure which states were projected. Probably MT, WY, and UT. 86 to go!
Katherine
PS. Can anybody here recommend a good psychiatrist in the Bay Area? Either way it goes I WILL need a therapy.
No. But I can recommend a great one.
Jamie Irons
No, he will probably cancel the F-22 to pay for healthcare. Not enough in the intelligence budget. He will cut intelligence to pay for some lesser welfare program
Utah went for Bush. Be still my beating heart.
I helped pull the string for that shot! Yay!
Utah-
Ohio traditionally has turnouts around 60%, so when you move to 70-75%, you’re talking a lot of bodies. So much of this relates to how well trained the poll workers are at each site, in addition to the number of machines available.
Add to the fact that in places like North Linden, where turnout is huge compared to historical averages, you are talking about a lot of people who unfamiliar with the mechanics of voting…per person average times are probably much higher than in precincts were high turnouts are the norm.
Put those three variables, machines, poll worker training and vote times together and you can come up with some ugly combinations.
OK, I’ve clicked off of FNC briefly precisely twice. The first time I got to see the final few minutes of True Lies which I find hilarious. Second time I got to see Michael Corleone get the pistol from behind the toilet and shoot the two guys. These are VERY good omens. Fox has Bush over 190, 195 IIRC.
At about 8 PM I became exhausted and wanted to go to bed.
Wake up the next morning and say, oh, that’s nice, either way.
I’m feeling relatively good either way. The American citizen foiled the MSM again by exit polls.
They’re getting savvy. There’s hope.
Dashle Thune
Daschle is about 2% up from Thune with 25% of the vote in. Not to worry, the reporting is coming from Daschle’s strong eastern S.D. areas where he should be leading much more. Western S.D. is strongly pro Thune and is one hour later. No western counties are reporting yet.
At this point it looks good for Thune.
Good Golly Miss Molly! My third click off of FNC got me to Ground Hog Day. I’m starting to believe the 300 EV speculation! Heart rate under 150 (well, OK, wavering around 150).
Btw, what’s with those guys in the Fox set background who jump up&down every time they’re in the picture?
Funny.
Here are the latest stats for Florida. This will be key for Bush tonight.
Florida race for President 5798 of 7241 precincts – 80 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 2,959,848 – 52 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 2,707,703 – 47 percent
FWIW, this from Jim Geraghty at NRO:
BUSHIES THINK THEY KEEP NEW HAMPSHIRE [11/02 10:15 PM]
Word from a guy doing consulting in New Hampshire:
Spoke w/ his people in NH. They think they’re going to win. Bush surprisingly won 2 wards in heavily Democratic Manchester, and one in Nashua. Their vote total was much higher than expected in traditionally Democratic places, and the late returns in NH usually come from heavily GOP areas.
So Tim, how many times did you vote to swing Utah to Bush….
It is time for the bye-kus (apologies to Taranto). Perhaps my confidence has been reinforced by some dark brown, old, alcoholic stuff–but here goes:
Goodbye John Kerry
Voters have cast their ballots
And found you scary
OK–perhaps a bit doggerelish
Fifty Two for Bush
Forty Seven for Kerry
Keep your day job, John
IEM
58/40
21:17 CST
tick, tick, tick, tick…..
DtP -
The optimist in me says that a lot of people have been planning for this day for months, regardless of which side they are planning to support. And people on both sides of the table are anxious NOT to end up on the front page of the local paper under “Palm Beach County Not Only Place Morons Run Elections or Vote”.
Elections are the ultimate expression of citizenship for just about ninety percent of the electorate. Red or Blue, there has to be some measure of pride in just getting the job done right when you get the chance. At least I would hope so.
All the sound and fury of the past couple of years has been produced by media to sell media…the candidates (especially Bush) and us have been unwilling casualties of the shrapnel of confusion and conflicting agendas within media.
You can tell lies all the time and get away with it. You cannot lie today and tell the truth tomorrow for weeks, months, and years and reasonably expect to be taken seriously.
We’ll get a president out of today’s work. Will we have a viable media culture and two political parties? That remains to be seen.
What’s that I hear…champagne corks in Chappaqua, New York? Imagine that.
Thia from the little rght hand box atop Nat’l Review’s homepage, it’s apparently text from the Michigan GOP’s answer to the lawsuit to keep Detroit polls open past closing time:
“”Voter intimidation does exist in Michigan and it is Democrats that are practicing it,” said MRP Executive Director Greg McNeilly. “With their black arm bands and menacingly positioned “check in” tables, John Kerry’s field organization, MoveOn.org, is causing excessive damage to the integrity of this election. The D in Democrat is short for Disenfranchisement. This is just another in what is now a long list of Democrat attempts to destroy the integrity of this election.”
Black armbands?
Just a note. Just voted about 45 mins ago in Redlands, CA (County of San Bernardino)
Polling place was a local middle school with three precints voting there.
Using electronic voting machines all were working except one. Line moving smoothly with after work rush. Was in and out in about 20 mins.
Go BUSH
This may go down to Hawaii. It’s only fair as their vote is mostly ceremonial with the Presidential race already called before their polls close.
Ron Wright
The raw numbers show PA at 66% Kerry, 34% Bush with 27% of precincts reporting. Not surprising since I think this is the first time in a long time this state has been in play in a presidential election.
Fresh Air — sorry, my earlier posts were for Orange County only and it looks to have slipped to Kerry. The bigger picture is that the state looks to be Bush’s [52-47 with 83% reporting] and the symbolic change is Osceola County, just south of Orlando/Orange County. There has been a heavy migration of Puerto Ricans and other Hispanics into the area. Osceola went to Gore in 2004 and looks to be for Bush this time around.
Bush should be a clear winner in Florida.
Well I keep hearing the phrase LA Times exit polls. Say no more, say no more…..
There was a Moveon.org guy at my polling place in MI. But he had on a red hat (as I believe they all did). I didn’t like his presence there, but he didn’t seem to be doing anything illegal that I could tell.
More on Florida from Jim G at NRO:
MORE FROM BUSHIES ON FLORIDA [11/02 10:24 PM]
An individual close to the Bush campaign reports that the Bush campaign assessment on Florida is that the President should win by about three percentage points when all is said and done.
In Broward, the Bush campaign expected to lose by 250,000 votes, but are down only 174,000 with 84 percent reporting.
In Duvall, the Bush campaign expected to win by a 40,000, and they are set to win with a 50,000 vote margin.
Bush is ahead of the swing counties, and north of the I-4 corridor, Bush is set to double the vote margin of victory he had in 2000.
And the Bush campaign says they will have an absentee vote margin of 150,000.
Adding that all together, they estimate a 3 percentage point win.
Hmm. Bush down to 51% in national. With the Left Coast still to come, this could mean trouble for the popular vote. Still, much more to come.
Joe
I cannot get past this “wrong war at the wrong time”.
Jim Hoagland has made the point that in saying this Kerry may have undermined the moral and legal basis for continuing to fight the insurgency.
jerry -
Just the one easy punch…and yes, I did check for chads.
PA was supposed to relatively close according to the polls. Here is what Yahoo reports:
Pennsylvania race for President 4339 of 9425 precincts – 46 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 1,139,907 – 59 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 788,925 – 41 percent
How many machines showed up with votes already registered? I wonder what the post mortem will be.
Ohio Update-
Bush up 52.22/46.66 with 21.57% reporting.
Cuyahoga (Cleveland): 2 to 1 Kerry with 1.5% reporting. No surprise, but should narrow.
Franklin (Columbus): 54/45 Bush with 22% reporting. This is very good news for Bush.
Hamilton (Cincinnati): 50/50 with 9% reporting. Bush can live with that, but more is always better.
On a county by county basis, I’m seeing about what I thought I would see…no surprises as of yet. I expect Bush to take Hamilton (it will be close), and I expect Bush to take Franklin (though not by 9 points).
My own guess was Bush taking Ohio by 5 points. As of now, I’d guess it is going to be closer to 4 points. Bush won by 3.6 points in 2000.
Ohio’s three key counties: Cuyahoga (Cleveland) at around 9% reporting:
Kerry, John F. Democratic 74,316 60.88%
Bush, George W. Republican 47,367 38.80%
Franklin (Columbus)61% reporting:
Bush, George W. Republican 157,583 50.03%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 155,840 49.47%
Hamilton (Cinci) 11% reporting:
Kerry, John F. Democratic 39,541 34.62%
Bush, George W. Republican 34,804 30.47%
Montgomery(Dayton) 43% reporting:
Kerry, John F. Democratic 65,577 53.99%
Bush, George W. Republican 55,332 45.56%
My home, Dayton, not doing so well. Damn! Maybe more to come, but we didn’t go for Bush last time, maybe we didn’t swing it this time either.
Go Columbus! (DtP)
Barrett-
As I watch the numbers at the PA DoS the gap is closing. I just checked the county-by-county returns and many of the rural counties have not yet reported results. The initial large gap comes from Philly. From what the local news is reporting the turnout among the Amish is almost historically high. This could be the deciding factor. PA is still in play.
Chocolate….nature’s Prozac. I highly recommend it for everyone!
There is NO WAY that Hamilton Cty, OH is going for Kerry. You’re looking at 11% counted. Also keep in mind nothing’s come back yet for Warren Cty – large, conservative, and Cincinnati suburbs. This is where W had his rally with 50K+ in attendance this fall.
I wasn’t going to weigh in but I have to say if the exit polling ais off a badly as it appears to be then their will be a further diminished stature of the MSM. Exit polls had Bush losing Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire by large margins. Bush has an insurmountable lead in Florida and conventional wisdom said Mel Martinez was going to perhaps carry Dubya to victory yet it is the reverse as the President is out polling Mel by 3%. Ohio had even worse exit polls but I told my wife that Ohio would go Dubya for one simple reason. I noticed in the exit polling something very interesting. First Dubya increase his African American support by 9% and women by 2% which offset Dubya loss of 8% among White male. Most importantly he increased his support with 60+ voters! I would take their reliability over the new and improved “527 youth vote” anyday and he increased among them by 8%! Michael Barone is a gem by the way on fox news, the man is a genius. Bush is incresaing 1% here and a 1/2% there. The Republican’s have done this former Democrat proud in their turnout to vote. Old voting models are being destgroyed. Catherine that 5% 9/11 shift lives on!
Ohio:
Statewide Totals
Bush, George W. Republican 969,961 50.66%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 891,086 46.54%
with 33% reporting
BeckyJ,
I just robbed my daughter’s Halloween candy based on your advice!
Thanks.
Roger on Hewitt soon! (In case you’re only reading the end of the comments page.)
kellymo, DtP,
These numbers are extremely large for Ohio.
I’d look at these numbers as final numbers, not partially reported (40% range)
At this rate we’re going to get almost 70% participation!
Is it just me, or does Kristol sound like Mulder?
Can anyone ‘splain the discrepancy between FNC (193 EV) and Yahoo (195 EV)? For any MO folks at Roger’s Place, Thank You from the heart of the Blue Zone!
John & DTP – we heard from coworkers who were waiting to vote in different Warren Cty precincts this afternoon. Both were 2 hours plus into their lines around 3pm. When you see those OH census numbers decreasing for Hamilton County? Well, Warren’s where a huge percentage of them are going…
Caroline,
Jerry is the bona fide expert here, so his opinion matters. But my amateurish take on Iran is that we will try to push the regime change from the inside. Mostly using the Brits, who have had reliable network there for years. I may be totally wrong, but this is how I processed scarps of publicly available evidence.
Jerry,
Thank you for sharing your opinion about low probability of the attacks. I will sleep better tonight thanks to you, no matter what.
Jamie,
Thank you! You think that these therapy sessions will be held inside or outside of the crawl space? I almost fear to hope that I may not need that order for lead sheet after all. Either way, we should get together and drink lots and lots of good wine.
Following Beckyj’s lead, the Ohio rural (Amish, or fundamental) are going two to one for Bush. Small populations, but they are adding up!
John Lynch,
The popular won’t be out of whack. The margin for W in California will tighten considerably from ’00. The current percentage includes a bunch of the NE but is only about 50% of the total vote that will be cast.
Barrett-
I can recommend chocolate for just about any stress-inducing activities! Or regular every day stuff too. It’s a very versatile form of self-medication!
Looks like PA has been called for Kerry by CNN and RealClearPolitics. No real surprise there. Despite the battleground status I never really expected this state to swing to Bush. As NY is anchored by NYC, PA is anchored by Philly. Fox just called PA for Kerry as well.
Anybody got the scoop from Michigan and Ohio?
Both Yahoo and FNC just projected PA for Senator Munchausen.
Katherine:
Thanks for the vote of confidence. Now that I am on the public record I hope I will not be proven wrong next week.
I gave a brief to the assembled Anti Submarine Warfare Community in May of 1991 where I said the Commies are gone and the aren’t coming back. Well, I was sound asleep on the family August vacation at my in-laws house in Northern Wisconsin when my wife woke up to tell me that CP had started the revanchist coup. The first thing that came to mind was that my career was over. Lucky for me Boris Yeltsin stood like the Govenator and smashed the reds.
Rick Ballard,
I guess you are right. The Left Coast may move the national percentage by a point, maybe two, but currently it is K47 to B51. Still enough for the popular. I guess I was hoping for majority as well.
My predictions were 53/47;300.
Getting hard to do now.
IEM
last trade 70/31, B/K
22:00 CST
Did somebody already post this?
Tidk, tick, tick…….
Okay, I got up at 4:00 am to watch this, and just realized I haven’t taken a deep breath since 4 hours ago.
By the way, Chinese people don’t like Bush much, but the commie gov’t seems to feel they can do business with him. Better the devil you know, I think….
I think I can go on to the office now.
OK, so looking at the map, right now if Bush holds on to OH and FL, then takes NM, AZ, CO and ID, that makes 270 right there.
Jerry,
You were right then and I hope you are right now. Commies were gone for good already in 1989; however, it was impossible that they would go away without a twitch. Hence the coup. What will happen in Russia now with Putin tightening the grip is a fascinating topic, but somehow I donít think that it will catch attention of anybody tonight.
I think I need to open another bottleÖ.
If you look at the Gore/Bush map (click lem) agaist the CBC.ca News Interactive (live) Bush is picking up two Gore states, Wis. 10, and Mich. 17. Unless Fla goes Kerry, (unlikely so far) Kerry is toast.
Yahoo just gave CA to Kerry with 0% of pop vote reported. 90% of FL is in with 5% Bush lead but they won’t project.
Jerry,
Sometimes you have to stick your neck out. While there may be risk in doing so, people who want an informed opinion (i.e. a conclusion) will value you. You just have to have the right audience. In any case, Yeltsin came through for you.
Just so you know, a lot of us value your insight here
kellymo is right about Warren County…it had slipped by my beartrap-like mind.
Vexorg-
RealClear has called AZ for Bush giving him 207 to 188 for Kerry.
John Lynch,
My calc on the left coast is about a .5% total impact on the popular. The last Field poll (heavy Dem tilt) had Kerry up by 7% where Gore was up 12%. I don’t trust the AP reporting on this at all. They will hold back accurate reporting on the popular vote until they know whether law suits might work. If everyone wakes up and hears it was 50-50 unstead of the much more likely 52-47 it will give a different flavor to the lawsuit issue.
Someone on Fox News just called Florida too close to call (go figure, and talked about an ACLU lawauit over absentee ballots…
ìYahoo just gave CA to Kerryî
This is a bit like Sullivanís endorsement of Kerry. No shit, Yahoo!
click lem for the most uptodate election numbers. if you compare it to the Gore/Bush map (lem above) you may want to check make sure the champain is not freezing
S’alright, DTP. This Redskin has your back.
FreshAir-
Check out The Horserace Blog for Ohio & Florida updates.
Correction to previous post: Bush 210-Kerry 198
jerry
I see that Falls Church City, Virginia (where I live) precints have not reported yet , but being that my wife went to Washington-Lee High School (Arlington) and I grew up in Arlington as well, I’ll just bet that the Arlington margin of 68% Kerry, 31% Bush will be similar to our margin in Falls Church (we might actually be worse).
I read today that Falls Church households have a median income of 100,000 per house-hold. Many nice people, but there are also a bunch of blue-blooded damn do-gooders who have an oversized sense of their own importance. May they chew on and stew in the results of this election for a season because Bush is clearly headed to victory. As for me, I will wake up tomorrow in peace.
Katherine,
While it may be like AS’s (like that ASs) endorsement of Kerry, Boxer has 66% of the tabulated vote so far. IMHO, she is a nutjob.
CA is a pipe dream for Bush in the Electoral College. However, a good showing in the popular vote would help Bush in a tight race, which it appears it will be.
Is it me or is Juan on FNC channel awfully quiet.
FNC says AZ for Bush
Nobody is going to call Florida until it is mathematically impossible to be wrong. It is natural for people to assume that what happen last will happen again. The fancy terminology is the elasticity of expectaion = 1. The entire Democratic Party legal strategy is based on repeat of 2000. The odds are almost zero that it will happen that way.
Statistically, with 94% of the precincts in and a 52-47 lead by W, there is no way W can lose FL.
Having cried the last hour over the fact this election seems to be close and it shouldn’t have been, I am heartened a little by Charlie’s clever puzzle solving skills and the good sense all of you project.
Still, I live in the Georgia district that has given Israel hater and racist Cynthia McKinney another term in Congress, and I despair over how the MSM has behaved ever since it knows the blogosphere knows it is distorting, lying and cheating on behalf of its agenda and candidates. The mainstream media has not been shamed into behaving responsibly and objectively, and, if Kerry wins, they may be emboldened into further partisan activism.
My passport already has a respectable number of Euro and Asian entries for surviving under a transnational/UN/ICC/Kyoto Kerry administration, but I think some yards and yards of dark fabric wrapped ’round me and also my daughter might be in order.
This site on CNN allows one to look county by county through each state as the returns come in. It’s fascinating. What one sees everywhere is that each state mirrors the national vote in that Kerry wins big in the old-line central cities, but outside of those the results are mixed and Kerry is decidedly weak. Kerry isn’t even winning in some of the traditional left-wing college-town counties, like Douglas County, KS. For example, check out New York. Outside of NYC and Albany, Kerry is weak and probably even losing on the whole.
If you click on a specific county you can see the actual vote within that county. This shows Kerry up over Bush 70-29 in Boulder County, CO, while he is only up 57-42 in Westchester County, NY. Kerry is only weakly ahead in Miami-Dade. Bush seems to be winning most counties in MI. Quite a surprise.
Forget the state totals and the projections. If Kerry can only weakly win Miami-Dade and Westchester, he’s toast.
Are you willing to admit the error of your ways yet jerry?
BeckyJ,
As a former (tenured) academic, I would strongly recommend that you not sponsor the college Republicans next year. I wouldn’t breathe a pro-Republican word if I were you until I had tenure. Academic politics is mean and nasty to the nth degree.
Katherine,
Don’t worry: it wouldn’t have made any difference for you to tell people about voting for Bush. The Kerry voters had all made up their minds before we invaded Afghanistan.
Samuel: I’m in Leesburg, VA. how did we do?
Montana for Bush (FNC)
I forgot a big one. If you’re into the OH inside baseball stuff, don’t forget Butler Cty either. Again, v. conservative large suburbs for Cincinnati. Right now: about 42% in with almost 65% for W.
OH Secretary of State’s website says 50% of precincts reported with 52% W to 46% Kerry.
Just think, if Bush had been willing to do something about the immigration catastrophe he probably would have had the 29 electoral votes of NV, AZ, NM, and CO wrapped up already. His vote may be up with Hispanics, so far, but 4 or 5% more of that vote is almost certainly less than the votes he could have got from non-Hispanics.
Maybe it will all come down to Hawaii!
Wash is 50 50 right now.
Could Susan Estrich be more obnoxious? That opening “Just a Country Hick” voice has GOT to go.
According to a poster at LGF, ABC just called Florida for W.
Just got back from an adventure over in the fever swamps of the DU. Check this out (verbatim):
“Skinner does so much to help us here on this cite. Sen. Kerry will win this tonight I now it. I hate the bush and his people. Sen Kerry is a good man and he was in vetnam in 1970 and he fought so hard and he was wonded and got a medal. I dont understand why the voter in Pennsaylvania and Ohio are not voting for Sen Kerry. They are stupid people in the woods and dont know what is right. My Dad says they are married to each other like the son and daugter. thats wrong. Lets win tonight and bush is gone for good!!!”
Back in a minute after I clean the muck off my shoes…
ABC just called FL for Bush.
WA may be 50-50, but I don’t think any King County results are in yet. Chances are those will probably go 2/3 for Kerry.
ABC gave FL to Bush and hasn’t given WA to Kerry.
Becky:
That’s not mud, its country humor. The DU poster sounds like her parents are brother and sister.
CNN just made it official: Florida is W’s.
Yahoo has WA for Kerry although it is early. We have a road to travel here. I don’t know the composition of the precints.
Washington
President 417 of 6686 precincts – 6 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 311,957 – 50 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 301,871 – 48 percent
Coisty
The election is over, Bush has already won. He is a political genius, all the credit can’t go to Rove. He is a political genius because he had a sense for just how much he could risk and still win. If Bush had Clinton’s mentality he would be winning in a Reaganesque landslide with near 60% of the vote. But he is a gambler with little regard for self and more for doing bold actions what he feels is right. His domestic and foreign policy will shape the next generation and ironically history rewards boldness not popularity. Clinton chased historical fame, this President found it without care of looking for it, funny how that works. This President is a historical figure indeed.
Wichita,
I know you are right about most of those Kerry voters making their mind before invasion of Afghanistan, but I still think that there is small percentage of people who went along with the MSM propaganda about Iraq being a distraction in the war on terror. So I blame myself for not speaking out more often. Who knows, maybe I would have converted a person or two.
This relates to you advice to BeckyJ. Undoubtedly you are right again, but I am so tired, so very tired of practicing ketman all my life. I mean, it was an obvious survival strategy in the CommieLand. But here? In the Land of the Free? Something does not compute
OK. After a relatively pleasant evening, I’m getting concerned about Ohio.
Can someone out there provide a little reassurance?
Roger,
You know is Susan Estrich seems aggravated, it must not be going good for the Dems. She is a good barometer of a person afflicted with BDS.
CNN’s site doesn’t shot a projection for FL. In fact they still show the EV as 197-188. Whassupwitdat?
It’s close to Pumpkin for me and this is probably my last post the evening. I am asking myself this question. Am I going to do a Charles Evans Hughes and go bed thinking Bush has been re-elected and wake up with President-Elect Kerry. Looking at state by state vote totals it is still possilbe for Kerry to win. If he does he, like Bush in 2000, is going to have fewer popular votes. The big difference is that Bush will probabbly have a clear majority where Gore did not top 50%. I think this is because many blue states are much less blue then four years ago. Ohio could be shaping up as this year Florida. See you all tomorrow. I wish I lived on the West Coast so I could see how Ohio and Wisconsin turn out.
Samuel,
Maybe the conservative side of me is speaking, but I am not in the mood to invoke Murphy’s law by saying it is over. You may be right.
What about all those lawyers Kerry and the DNC dispatched. They probably have laptops with prepared forms to file lawsuits.
How large does the margin of victory have be for this to not end up in the courts? Does anyone know?
Of course Estrich looked angry. Those “customized” ballots were supposed to be back from Kinko’s hours ago…
DtP,
I forgot to mention before that I have lived in Ohio, I got my grad degree from University of Cincinnati, and I still have connections there. So, you better deliver that W vote. I donít care how many lawyers you have to retain.
Things are looking good for W. I think the Republic is safe! Reading the blogs for the last 18 months, especially the Iraqi blogs, has changed me. They put a “face” to the rhetoric and the fight waged in faraway places by men and women far braver than I. They are my heroes. I simply could not abandon them to a man who calls them “the wrong war at the wrong place at the wrong time.”
My mandate to W? Savor your moral and wholly American victory. You earned it. Tomorrow morning, to borrow from Ledeen, I ask of you: faster, please.
Well, by my math (real math, not number machines)
Using calls from Yahoo! (wherever they get these calls):
Start with 210 (from called)
Add FL, OH, CO, and NM and the rest don’t matter – its 271.
Each of the above, while not called, are over 40% reported and over 4% advantage Bush.
Florida they won’t call because of these late provisional and absentee ballots.
Ohio they won’t call until at least 80% reported and all of the major counties tallied.
Colorado, I’m not sure why they won’t count it.
New Mexico, they won’t call until the Hispanic vote gets tallied.
There may be other ways to get there, but these seem the clearest path.
OKay, I’m back. What’d I miss?
Fox pulled something off Kerry’s list and reduced him to 133 EV? I suspect WA, but can’t tell. I’m glad I never went through this suffering so deeply before. They only have Bush at 221, haven’t given him FL yet.
If Samuel is right, it makes you wonder what Bush could do if he had the gift of gab.
Has anyone heard anything about the election coverage Michael Moore and friends were doing for the BBC?
BobT,
OH
W’s up 180,000 with 66% of the precincts in. If the lead holds through 80% then I’d say it’s over. Estrich’s convoluted explanation of how Kerry would win was a good indication how bad he is actually doing. I won’t declare victory but I’m very sure of the outcome.
you are such a smart guy. There I was looking at Catherine’s math problem and scratching my head and going”…. what the…..” with wichitaboy saying “don’t cheat now”… so I cheated and scrolled down and lo, there was your answer. How did you get it? I was trying to figure out the formula. If I hadn’t cheated I would no doubt still be a nervous wreck right along with Catherine.
Coming from you guys, that’s really high praise.
The answer is that I’m a computer scientist, not really a mathematician. After a minute or two, I saw that table as a coding problem rather than a continuous function.
Btw, what’s with those guys in the Fox set background who jump up&down every time they’re in the picture?
Funny.
Fox’s studios are at ground level at 48th street and Sixth Avenue — katty-corner across from Radio City. Those guys are outside the windows, on their cell phones, saying “See! See! That’s Me! There I am!”
Jerry, whatever it is, all I can say is ewwwww!
wichitaboy:
thanks for the advice. Somehow I got outed today, but managed to survive. I played corporate politics for 10 years so I’m ready for academic politics (I do understand the differences, but I can be nasty too). At any rate advising the YRs probably won’t happen as the guy who’s doing it now has not brought it up since first mentioning it. He’s fairly protective of me in a collegial way so I think he thought better of the idea. Regardless, I’m not bringing it up again.
RealClear’s latest total: Bush: 246, Kerry: 199
24 to go…
If Bush wins just the three states even Yahoo! has leaning his way right now, he’s President in January.
I voted at 7:00 AM EST, which, if I did the math correctly, was a little over three years ago.
I’m exhausted, but I fear sleep.
RickB,
Thanks. A few minutes with Jay Cost helped, too.
I’ve been staying away from the TV and working the blogs all night. Tuned in to the networks and was startled to hear their “too close to call” take.
Denis,
Any light to shed on what to expect from here in Ohio?
Ohio race for President 8683 of 11477 precincts – 76 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 2,151,699 – 51 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 2,025,015 – 48 percent
New Mexico: Bush leads by 51% to 48% with 70% of precincts reporting.
Campaign Carl Cameron just mentioned that the mood in the Kerry camp has dampened considerably. Kerry isn’t allowing the pool reporters in to where he’s watching the returns.
Like Jerry, I’m turning into a pumpkin. I’m not used to having to stay up this late to watch returns! (Almost all previous presidential elections have been followed from CA.)
Hold down the fort all; I’ll check in with everybody tomorrow morning.
I think I may know why Estrich is in such bad humor. She and Brit had a “misunderstanding” earlier where Brit jokingly called her a “know-it-all” and she took great offense. She got sort of weepy for a while before Brit apologized.
I never realized how thin-skinned she is OR how this election is affecting her. It’s a little sad.
G in Tucson
P.S. Voting was such a relief today; I feel 20 lbs. lighter!
Katherine-
I put the lawyers on Roger’s VISA, so consider it done.
Latest OH figures…
Bush up by 5 points even with 64.23% of the vote in. It is looking increasingly bleak for Kerry. There is still 2/3 of Cuyahoga (Cleveland) to count and that will be heavily Kerry, but the bottom line is I do not think that will be enough, in and of itself, to swing the state away from Bush. Hamilton (Cincinnati) is trending towards Bush, and we still have a couple of heavily Republican counties that haven’t reported.
Biggest OH surprise to me is Kerry winning Franklin…and by the margin he is winning it by (30,000 votes). I really thought Bush had turned it around from 2000. One factor in my favor is that the suburbs are slipping out of Franklin County…I am in Delaware, and it went 2-1 Bush by 19,000 votes, which narrows Kerry to 11,000 up in Central Ohio. You put Licking County in the equation and Bush leads Central Ohio. Guess I need to sharpen up on the demographics…
The key to my sanity tonight has been keeping the TV off and surfing the net for information. Of course, I’ve stayed tuned in here.
I was up by 6 AM this moring and voted at 7 AM. I think I have a couple more hours in me before I crash. Tomorrow at work is going to be a challenge.
Barret
Well as a first time Republican voter I don’t know how big my “conservative side” is but the internals of Ohio are just about impossible for Kerry to overcome, he won’t even get close to a contestable margin, also Florida’s margin of victory is larger than any court case can overcome as well. The absentee ballots sitting uncounted have always gone Republican and their aren’t enough of them even if they didn’t. If the Democrats contest this race they will lose credibility and more of the electorate. People are tired of the divisivness. Bush has four more years and I will add that a popular vote victory of more than 1 million votes, a pick up of 3 or more Senate seats equals a mandate. Top that off with a Tom Dascle overthrow by the voters of South Dakota and the Democrats had better get the message of change. Also they better set aside the Gay Marraige for a season and come back with civil Unions and stop shoving the issue down voters throats.
ABC reported that Bush just won Colorado.
There’s quite a few ballots in Hamilton, Warren, Butler, and Clermont counties in OH not reported – all normally R territory.
Guys, I donít know about you, but I was in a similar position as I am now in 2000. I was a Clinton voter, but I was petrified that Gore would win. I pegged him as a central planner, an ideological zealot, and liar par excellence. I was terrified about what he would do to the economy. On top of that I was afraid of him because he was a 27-year Washington insider, seeking more and more power. Bush convinced me to vote for him by his promise to reduce atomic arsenal, cut taxes, reform SS and have non-interventionist foreign policy (how ironic!). I was at my computer late that night, keeping up with the election returns and just as I was ready to turn in came Gore retraction of his concession. What followed we all know, but you may not know that I got so disgusted with shenanigans of the Democratic Party that I registered as a Republican on the day that Florida Supreme Court decided that election rules are for suckers.
In retrospect, one I can see how puny the stakes were 4 years ago. Yet I find myself in the same situation, waiting for the results with a dead dread in my heart. I do not allow myself to hope for too much, because of my former experience. Will we endure similar nightmare as 4 years ago? Will ñ even worse ñ the vote go directly to Kerry?
It looks that lots of people did not learn anything on 9-11. Certainly this is true for many of my friends, even those who still want to keep up with such bloodthirsty warmongering capitalist pig as myself. Otherwise I would not be fretting so and we would be experiencing a landslide.
This blog, the wonderful community here kept me sane and I hope will help me to survive in the future. So, heartfelt thank you to all of you and most of all to Roger who made it all possible.
Anyone know what the popular vote is doing? Noone’s talking about that.
The Yahoo site has Bush up 140K in OH. FNC just said Bush was up 130K with 800K still not reported (no idea how they know that). Making up the 130-140K out of 800K isn’t impossible but doesn’t seem likely. Just sayin’
OHIO
Bush up 52.23/47.27 with 70.14% reporting.
Raw numbers: Bush up by 180,000.
If Cuyahoga (Cleveland) reports at present trend, Kerry will pick up 100,000.
Hamilton (Cincinnati) will net Kerry nothing.
Tuscarawas (heavily Republican) hasn’t reported anything yet.
Warren should net Bush an additional 15,000.
We are very close to Bush locking Ohio.
It is amazing to me that New Mexico is trending towards Bush. Not that long ago it was a reliably Democratic state.
I guess it’s Albuquerque’s growth that has done this. The people moving to the Santa Fe area are unlikely to be Bush supporters.
The big contest seems to be coming down to Ohio. If Bush wins it, he wins. If he loses it, I think at this point he loses.
Dennis the Peasant ó If we get over 80% reporting with Bush’s lead holding, is there anything (legal) the Dems can do to come back?
W is up close to 3 million in the popular vote. Still at 51-48
All RIGHT!
I just scared the hell out of the cats. But Fox just called Vitter winning the Louisiana Senate with 51 percent. No run off. Mel Martinez is leading on Florida, net plus four or five seats in the Senate. The Republicans are gaining lots of seats in the House.
Folks, this is a blow out. Dennis, if you’d just get them to close the deal on Ohio, we could go to bed.
Dr. Sanity
According to CNN, Bush leads the nationwide popular vote 51% to Kerry’s 48%.
OK – Now can we talk about the probable tenor of Kerry’s concession?
Fox is projecting Bush wins Ohio! That’s the deal, all he needs is another 3 EVs and that does it.
OHIO UPDATE
Precincts Reporting:†76.97%
Bush, George W.
Republican
2,238,561
51.77%
Kerry, John F.
Democratic
2,063,934
47.73%
Fox calls Ohio for Bush. Its pretty much over.
All except for the frivilous lawsuits- Silky Pony can lead their charge.
Fox just called Ohio for Bush
Hell, Rick, I still expect Kerry to say “it ain’t over” and start naming his Cabinet.
I’m still worried about Ohio.
Why aren’t more precincts reporting???
I’m convinced the dead are voting in Cleveland!
Brit Hume says its over – either Bush gets Alaska for 3 more EVs to tie (and thus win) or NM to win.
Watching the wailing over at democratic underground is incredibly therapudic, by the way…
Ramesh on The Corner “Mr. Kerry, You are dismissed from duty.”
Fox calls ohio for bush – all he needs is alaska and new mexico.
Charlie,
Your probably right. Remember this is the trial lawyer ticket.
The Constitutional Restoration has arrived.
HOLD YOUR HORSES
OHIO’S Getting too close.
MSNBC, Kerry campaign getting votes needed.
MSNBC says not so fast. JFK picked up nearly 200k votes in cleveland and is doing well other places. they will litigate and lose. but still…
good on OH and Fla, but recall, it wasn’t about just winning. It was about mandate potential, and from what i see, he aint getting it.
hes out of it in all the other midwest states except OH–WI, MI and IA.
what the hell is up with Nevada?
hidden plus: Bush has coatails….6 HRs and 3-4 Sens owe their jobs to him. in the senate, that means a lot.
PS James carville just conceded.
Fox has called Ohio but no one else so far. I think Ohio will stick. Let’s hope it’s big enough to avoid contests. Bush is going to win Alaska and New Mexico for sure which will put him over 270. Let’s hope he can get a few more also so it’s not so close. Strangely, he appears to be doing well in the popular vote which may well give him a better mandate. I am still surprised at the closeness of this race. We will analyze it ad nauseum. But I suspect it had something to do with the degree to which the Democrats suceeded in turning their fellow Democrats against the Iraq war. I don’t know if I can ever forgive my party for dividing the country over a just and necessary war.
Poor Juan Williams is so desperate.
Roger:
Ohio is being called for Bush by Fox but I am still nervous.The main democratic counties are still being counted and the ability to generate the number of dead voters in some of the big cities is still something to be worried about. I understand Hamilton county is only at 31%votes counted and I still fear the Dems may have held some boxes of votes in reserve plus provisional ballots. I hate to be a spoiled sport but don’t open the champagne yet.
Roger:
Ohio is being called for Bush by Fox but I am still nervous.The main democratic counties are still being counted and the ability to generate the number of dead voters in some of the big cities is still something to be worried about. I understand Hamilton county is only at 31%votes counted and I still fear the Dems may have held some boxes of votes in reserve plus provisional ballots. I hate to be a spoiled sport but don’t open the champagne yet.
Samuel:
There’s an old Irish saying: God made whiskey so the Irish wouldn’t rule the world. I sometimes wonder if that’s why He didn’t give W a golden tongue.
At 8:00 when our polls closed, I was in the car listening to the radio on my way home from “getting out the vote” here in California. They called CA for Kerry at 8:01. Just cracked me up.
Fox just called Ohio for Bush. Thank you Jesus! Goodnight – I don’t think I’ve ever been so happy to have something over in my life.
MSNBC just called Ohio, and Alaska, and called Presidential Race for Bush
Okay…remember all that “chill, y’all” stuff earlier?
I can’t breathe.
More thoughts here.
Dennis,
The vote count in Ohio is down to 100,000 for Bush. What do the teas leaves say as you read them?
I’ll concede. I congratulate the President and his supporters and I wish you all well.
Still smiling.
Goodbye.
Barrett,
The OH Sec. of State site has the margin at about 190K toward W.
Do you think this is it?
Do you think this is finally the atonement this nation needed to make for abandoning the people of Vietnam? That when the people of Afghanistan and Iraq finally tasted freedom the American people elected to stay the course with them?
Goof, that’s the way. I don’t think I could dhave done that if Kerry had won.
Thanks Goof. That was gallant concession and true to your promise.
Farewell, Goof. Godspeed.
Bush was ahead by just 17 votes in Iowa a second ago!
Edwards will get blamed for Kerry loss.
Dear Goof,
Best wishes to you, too.
I wish all Democrats were as graceful as you.
Kerry’s fault for picking Edwards.
Substance, people. Substance.
By my calculations, suspect at this hour, running the county by county Repub/Dem mix out gives Kerry 70K more votes, eating away at a difference of 190K votes. I think when all precincts are in 120K vote difference, not counting the absentee, which will break Bush and are about 40K.
Net, around 130K for Bush in Ohio on 5.8M votes. Here it requires .25% for automatic recount.
I pray for a dawn horizon clear of lawyers.
I have to run my sis-in-law up to SLC in about five hours. I am waiting to see the call on FOX before I pack it in.
Goof, you are a heck of a citizen. I hope we both wake up tomorrow winners of our latest revolution. I surely do.
OHIO
Here it is, straight from Kenneth Blackwell:
80.70% of precincts reporting:
Bush 51.76/47.75
Bush up by 181,668 votes.
Based on my analysis, the best Kerry can expect to do, and I doubt he will do it, is get the margin of the raw vote down to somewhere around 100,000. Cuyahoga, Summit and Lucas counties would have to vote 100% Kerry in all remaining precincts to come close to a tie.
George W. Bush has been re-elected President of the United States.
And remember, Goddamnit, who called it ONE MONTH AGO.
Thanks Roger and everyone for letting me hang out on your blog.
Goodnight all,
Tom
Remember this, Goof-
The next time you feel rain in L.A., just know I’m very, very close.
NBC has Bush at 269. NM not called yet but trending Bush. It looks like it’s over except that Kerry literally has lawyers on planes waiting for word of which state to go to. It looks like OH and challenge of provisional ballots.
Ah, hell.
Some silly ass from the Kerry side is just saying “hey, it’s too close in Ohio to concede, and ther are still a few other states… it just gives too much of a psychological advantage when you concede.”
It may be necessary for Kerry to make trouble in order to finally resolve his Shakespearean need to self-destruct, but does he have to drag the US along with him?
Looks like Bush is about 4,000 up in Iowa now…
Well, Roger, you posted a comment about Susan Estrich above – now you know why she is about the worst Presidential Campaign advisor in history. I’m still astonished each time anyone puts her on the air – its not like Dukakis was known for running a smart campaign.
Nah, Charlie, he’s the Rubber Duck, he’ll be back windsurfing tomorrow. But millions of his minions will self-destruct. Good. When they get themselves put back together, maybe they’ll have learned not to lie so damned much.
Bush is up by 23,000 in NM with 86% precincts reporting.
Goof, you are a true gentleman. Don’t be a stranger, okay?
goddamnit. cahill is protesting ohio.
Charlie,
I can sympathize with the lawyerly temptation. But if Dems go this way I can guarantee you that they will only hasten their own demise. They will self-destruct right here in the good old US of A, no need to go to Iraq. Good luck to the evil litigious bastards. 4 years from now it will be a contest between the Moveon Party and The Rest of Us.
DtP, kellymo,
Looks like Ohio is tightening up. Down to 109K difference and around 180K still uncounted, also Blackwell said about 140K provisional ballots out.
Air is filling with planes of lawyers.
Now 102K difference
Goof
In the past I have given you a hard time, but you behaved like a true gentleman tonight.
Gentlemen are rare.
Be well.
Jamie Irons
100K
Goof may be a gentleman, but someone at Crush Kerry isn’t (not that I blame him). To wit:
Nothing like a gracious winner…
From Drudge:
It is very nice to see Goof concede. Would that also hold true for Kerry.
Jamie, what about those therapy sessions? It ainít over until the Empress sings.
Richard,
That is great question, especially at this point in the evening. You must have taken a nap to be thinking like this.
I am not sure that people in general were thinking along those terms. It is not as if Kerry is the last of the Vietnam era to run for a national office. However, if it turns out that this election means that America has learned to do the right thing even when it is difficult or unpopular then the future may be brighter for everyone.
Much has been written here about the significance of this election regarding the future of America’s role in the world. If Kerry was elected and essentially employed a cut and run strategy, America would become increasingly isolated in spite of Kerry’s proclomation to “rebuild our alliances.” The countries that support us now would become reticent about aligning with us in the future, the Russians and the Chinese (as well as every two-bit dictator and terrorist) would not respect us and the French will continue with their historical anti-American attitudes.
While this election may or may not be an atonement for forsaking the people of Vietnam, I hope that it is a step towards leading with a more collective confidence.
Bush must be prudent in leading during a second term or a historic opportunity will habe been squandered.
Let’s hope Ohio holds and there is no litigation.
John L–
If the numbers you cited are correct and the Kerry’s margin on the remaining 170,000 or so ballots is a huge 30%, he still can only make up 50,000 votes.
The provisional ballots would be another matter, though the numbers are similarly difficult there. Say he shaves the lead down to 55,000 after the regular count, then he needs to win by a 39% margin on the provisionals. I don’t know if he’s done that well anywhere in the country.
There is no mathematical way he can make the present difference of 105,000 votes, IMHO.
Ohio back to around +140K Bush.
Got competing reporting of thenumbers. CNN and Ohio Election Boards
The CNN numbers seem ahead by about 3-4% reported over the Ohio numbers. Not sure how that can happen. But trend is bouncing around a bit.
But getting closer.
Where do you see this? I see about 102K difference right now.
Also, Bush pulled ahead by about 2000 in Nevada, and continues to gain in Iowa.
Jay Cost says Cuyahoga County is 99% in: The bleeding has stopped in Ohio. Also predicting Bush will take Iowa and New Mexico.
104K difference with 93% reported at CNN
138K difference with 87% reported on Ohio
W’s current popular vote margin is 3.45 million. Even if CA breaks like last time his margin will remain above 2.5 million. Kerry will remain a fool should he decide to challenge this. I believe that the current position is just smoke and that Kerry will concede – perhaps not until tomorrow but he will concede.
Dennis
You da man!
Jamie Irons
1% is about 58k votes.
7% remaining could be around 406K votes
difference is running about 100-140k
it would take a 2-3 split to wipe out the difference, but possible.
Vexorg, I’ve got the Ohio Elections board up in another window. Right now it’s 2,539,008 Bush, 2,388,898 Kerry, 150110 difference.
Bush continues to gain in Iowa (leads by about 11K now), but now trails again in Nevada. Wisconsin is starting to look unlikely.
I think it’s time for some ice cream.
Bush at 150K with 88.8% reporting.
Jay Cost thinks we can add Iowa and New Mexico too.
Here are Yahoo’s numbers. How can they be ahead of the Ohio Secretary of State?
Ohio President 10617 of 11477 precincts – 93 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 2,595,156 – 51 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 2,491,212 – 49 percent
CNN has 95% precincts reporting and Bush with 2,648,463 versus Kerry’s 2,546,176.
CNN’s showing 96% reported now, with a gap of 121K.
I have Bush at 281 with I o a, We ow them is goping our way.
CBS just won’t let go. To watch them gives me a lot of pleasure.
May I say : Juan Williams is an idiot.
New Mexico is showing 96% now with about a 29K gap (look for a call on this soon.) Bush is showwn about 5K ahead in Nevada again too at 56% counted.
Yes, Juan Williams is an idiot.
And for some reason I thought Juan Williams was a completely different person. I think I’m confusing him with someone from CNN.
Looks like the Cuyahoga and Lucas counties still have significant Kerry uncounted votes (2 to 1Kerry over Bush); probably about 90K difference to Kerry.
Looks like Claremont, Hamilton, and some smaller counties give around 20K difference to Bush.
CNN now opening gap to 123K
I think we’re OK, but its not over.
Iowa is a “confused” situation, according to Gunga Dan.
Ohio now at 152,773 as of about 4 minutes ago.
So glad you’re all here. I’ve been a basket case all night, and I am almost afraid to calm down, after the 2000 roller coaster, where I went to bed thinking one thing and woke up with another. (Of course, in those days I was for Gore, but the principle is the same).
I have no expertise on polling and projections, so I have nothing of intelligence to add on that score. Except that Kerry’s staff (Mary Beth Cahill) is acting as expected, no surprise there. No problem whatsoever with the idea of tearing the country apart and putting us through a bunch of crap again. Lovely.
blogaddict, they’re saying that Teddy is having a “serious conversation” with Kerry right now. Not clear whether this is to encourage Kerry to concede, or to urge him onward.
Now I’m starting to hope that Teddy will throw his lot in with the “fever swamps of conspiracy” and a “pointlessly contested election”.
Juan Williams, Larry O’Donnell and Chris Matthews ó The “My Three Sons” reunion from Hell… Jeez, even Carville had the good sense to fold his tent…
Okay, Sandy, that settles it: Iowa for Bush.
Charlie,
The 152K number is with 88.79% reported.
The 123K number is with 96% reported, a later,more complete number. The gap is closing.
With still 200K votes to count.
I think we’re OK, but look for it to close further.
John L–
Where on earth did you get that bit about “significant uncounted votes”? Jay Cost said Cuyahoga was depleted.
If Kerry contests the Democratic Party ceases to exist in 2006.
Ohio county breakdown
Cuyahoga isn’t all reported yet.
Per Ohio Secretary of State-
Bush up 152,773 with 94+% of precincts reporting.
Nor is Lucas county.
Juan Williams is arguing that because it’s been a nasty campaign, they should contest the election.
I feel like Terrey, ready to promise dear Lord that, starting tomorrow, I will become a better person if we win thisÖ and I am an agnostic to bootÖ I guess it is true that there are no atheists in the trenches.
I think its done. 5% is around 250K votes still to be counted.
To make up 152,xxx (thanks DtP) would be damn difficult.
Just want to be sure of my facts when the acusations start flying.
Lucas County shows 95% reported, which would mean there couldn’t be more than about 15-20K votes left there.
GoofÆ – you’re not a rude troll but you are a troll and incredibly annoying to boot. Your disappointment makes my whole, long, nail-biting night.
I can’t say I feel victorious – rather relieved like we just dodged a bullet, but we’re not out of the woods by a long shot. Certainly not triumphant – far too much work still to be done. There’s still a war on, and Bush is far from the best possible leader – though he’s a hell of a lot better than Kerry. As we speak the Marines are stepping up their attacks – let’s not forget to spare a thought for them. I’m glad that they’ll be fighting under the leadership of a man who believes in them and their mission, but it’s still a damn hard mission. They are over there, purchasing our freedom with their lives.
In their attempt to win this election, the Dem LEASERSHIP (not all the run of the mill Dems) deliberately undermined the war effort, not out of principal, but merely as a way to hurt the president. I can’t forgive that, and we should not forgive or forget that.
John, Dennis and I are pulling our figures from the Ohio Sec’y of State elections page. If CNN is reporting something mnore, I don’t think they’re official figures yet.
… and the pge will refresh in 30 seconds….
Bush: 2,655,975
Kerry: 2,500,899
Δ 155,076
Instapundit has NBC announcing Kerry will not concede tonight. Graceless to the end…
Thune is gaining on Daschle, up about 9,000.
Here comes the Breck Girl
And here we go.
If anyone is left at this point, the Kerry folks have given a 2 minute warning; the word is that Edwards will come out and refuse to concede. But how?
Richard Mac–
Doesn’t it figure that the most graceless senator of all-time would have the second-most graceless senator of all time for a progeny?
Turds.
Okay, he’s saying “they will fight for every vote.” That’s it. Didn’t say they’d sue until the cows come home.
If these miserable swine do sue, then the Democrat party deserves to go down.
Charlie (c) and DtP,
I also am using the Ohio site, with the county breakdowns. They are the official ones. The CNN is a blend of something, official and projected I think. But it does purport to report a higher percentage of districts so may be a leading indicator of the Ohio reported numbers.
Working just with theOhio reported numbers, you still get 5% or 250K votes uncounted (approx) and a 153K difference.
The uncounted counties include some strong for Kerry, and a few smaller ones strong for Bush.
As I’ve said, I think we’re OK, but the numbers could break unexpectedly in one direction or another, and there is mathematical room for the difference to be erased.
I’d like to go to sleep with the question resolved, not still possible to wake up to a surprise.
I guess we can go to bed now. I hope its over before Inauguration day.
CNN now shows Cuyahoga County as being 100% reported. The remaining precincts seem to be going Bush.
Bush: IA, NV, NM, OH
Kerry: MN, WI, HI
Bush wins.
Edwards is now ranting about one more day and counting every vote (which I presume includes the fraudulent ones). What a tool.
I dunno, John, Dennis and I are getting the same numbers.
No guts Kerry sends the Breck girl out to rally the troops. What a total coward.
The DNC and the MSM really need to pay heavily for this cheesy performance. Kerry got beat with the MSM running the most blatant propaganda machine ever seen here.
I believe that the Senate should be called to a lame duck session and immediately change the standing rules eliminating the 60 vote cloture rule. Let the Dems suck on that as they look at their ever diminishing role in governance.
Charlie (c)
I’m getting the same numbers you are.
The five remaining percent are what I’m worried about.
With Cuyahoga gone, I think we’ve got it.
Hmm.
Cuyahoga is still only reporting 87% in.
link
Rick
What do you make of the rather pathetic appearance of the Breck Girl, and his pledge to “count every vote?”
I think the Democratic Party is determined not just to go down in defeat, but to go down in flames.
Jamie Irons
Good line: In effect, as Brit Hume just implied, if Kerry had the moral integrity of a Richard Nixon, he would concede.
From the Battlegrounders at NRO. I’m not ambitious enough to make a link at this point.
I’m trying to figure out where CNN’s numbers are coming from… They’re currently showing 2,706,778 to 2,581,451 with 97% precincts reporting. The Ohio Secretary of State page is showing a much larger difference, albeit with less precincts reporting.
G’Night all.
Jamie, does the word “hubris”, in its classical sense, seem to fit in here?
John L–
I still can’t see a 153,000 lead being erased by 250,000 votes. With a 62-37 run by Kerry (highly unlikely), that only nets him 62,500. So even if there are another 250,000 in provisional ballots and even if they lean Kerry by an incredible 25-point margin, he can only erase 125,000 votes.
I stick by my earlier statement. There is no freaking way, provisional ballots or not, for Kerry to win Ohio.
Dennis was right. Put a fork in him. Thanksgiving has come early for the SwiftVets.
Roger:
I have been a wet blanket for most of the night but I am declaring it over. President Bush will win.I have been planning a snarky remark for Goof for months but his concession took all the fun out of it. Gracious losers should not be slapped around. Goof, call Kerry and give him some pointers. The MSM is in full depression mode. Juan Williams is trying to cobble together some Hail Mary scenario and he is looking ridiculous. Chris Matthews wants to cry.Ron Reagan Jr. is in shock that “it’s the economy stupid” doesn’t work in the post 9-11 world.He also is floating a new theory that 9-11 made all the white male “cubicle” workers feel like they too could be more macho vicariously thru the war.Jr. should be the last person to be discussing the proper role of masculinity in America. You would think that the fact that the American voters would set aside their personel economic concerns and vote on non-economic issues would be applauded by the elites but because their boy Kerry lost it is to them another example of how stupid the American voter is.
They have no shame.
But we’ve known this since they spared the Rapist-in-Chief.
Has anyone heard a single network talking head mention that Bush won the popular vote? Seemed really important in 2000.
It is ridiculous that Kerry is not conceeding.
George,
As of now even Fox did not call the election for Bush. I guess they enjoy all-nighters and litigations. Must be great for ratings.
Charlie
Jamie, does the word “hubris”, in its classical sense, seem to fit in here?
Yes. And connected with hubris was a second, extremely apt, but less well known notion: ate (pronounced AH-tay, and spelled alpha-tau-eta)>
It’s a hard idea to translate, but connoted a terrible kind of destruction visited upon overly presumptuous mortals by the angered gods.
Jamie Irons
I’m packing up and moving out, too.
I didn’t watch a moment of TV tonight…and am a better man for it.
BeckyJ, thanks for the link waaaaayyyy back up there for the Ohio numbers. And thanks to all who shared the load here tonight.
And thanks to you, Mr. Simon, for allowing us to destroy some really fine carpet and stain all your tabletops.
I’m on the road in three hours, too. What a day it’s been.
Jamie,
I make the popular vote spread 3.5% and project total popular margin to be above 4 million. Although Kerry lacks the backbone to make a concession tonight, I have no doubt that he will tomorrow. I’m not sure who he will blame in his concession speech but I’m betting that it will be particularly graceless. America has truly been providentially blessed by not having to endure this pathetic excuse for a man any longer.
It should be over tonight and it will definitely be over tomorrow. Looks like I missed the popular by 2% but I’ll definitely take a 55 seat Senate. It’s time to change the cloture rule.
TMJ,
Safe travel and godspeed.
Kerry’s unwillingness to concede portends that this is going to get very ugly. The let’s count every vote line is very populist in its appeal. However, the Dems can do the same statistical analysis that is going on here.
Let’s hope that these last four states can get counted with a margin beyond a reasonable doubt quickly.
New figures coming out at CNN, showing 98% reporting and a margin of about 137K now.
Ladies and Gentlemen of the Bay Area (and everybody else for that matter)
I do not want to jinx anything, but do I dare to whisperÖparty, anyone?
BTW
GEORGE W. BUSH WON A CLEAR AND UNDENIABLE MAJORITY OF VOTES CAST!!!
And I’m not a bit sorry for the all caps, bold and multiple exclamation points.
Fox hasn’t called it because at the moment, they are forecasting 269 votes for Bush, which if it continued would be an electoral college tie, which would require the (fortunately Republican) congress to settle, at which point Bush would win.
If they pick up one more state (New Mexico, for example), Bush wins.
Fox has discussed Bush having a popular vote majority (with the caveat that it might slip as more votes come in).
Kerry team is reportedly readying jets full of lawyers to go to Ohio (where they already have 3200 lawyers). In other words, they are being poor losers. That should hardly come as a surprise.
Oddly, the Kerry team sent Edwards out to tell their crowd how they would make sure every vote was counted (i.e. they were sending the lawyer horde). The odd thing is that they didn’t send out Kerry himself. Given Kerry’s various character flaws ( ” I don’t fall down” ), it leads me to wonder if Kerry has come unglued as a result of the election. Teddy is there with him, so another possibility is that Teddy fed him too much whisky.
Iowa has 98% reporting according to CNN and a Bush lead there.
ìTeddy is there with him, so another possibility is that Teddy fed him too much whiskyî
Oh God, John, thatís a first honest laugh that I had this whole crazy election day/night! Thank you!
Bush is up almost 4 million in the popular vote.
Here is the latest from Yahoo on Ohio.
Ohio race for President 11241 of 11477 precincts – 98 percent
George W. Bush (i) Rep 2,736,850 – 51 percent
John F. Kerry Dem 2,599,244 – 48 percent
New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada also look good.
I have a 9:00 am meeting in NYC and will be getting less than three hours of sleep.
Good night all and thanks for your diligence and analysis.
Here’s a glimmer of rationality from the other side, via LGF:
a comment at Daily Kos
CNN earlier had a blurb at the top of the page claiming that due to electronic voting machine issues or something like that, Iowa final results would be delayed. Don’t look for this one to be called tonight.
Katherine
I do not want to jinx anything, but do I dare to whisper ÔøΩparty, anyone?
Party! Party!
Jamie Irons
NY Times:
With Echoes of 2000 Vote, Ohio Count Is at Issue
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Yeah, right. The New York Times completes its decent into infamy.
::waving hi::
All I can say is that this proves to me that Kerry hates America.
I’ll shut up now before I say something stupid that I wouldn’t regret but probably shouldn’t say anyway.
The “reality based community” mentioned by Daily Kos seems to be an idea by those on the left that they face reality while conservatives live in a fantasy world. This was apparently bolstered by someone in the White House who, in trying to make the point that they look beyond immediate reality, convinced some dimwitted member of the MSM that he meant that they don’t care about reality. This was enhanced by Bush’s comments on how he didn’t need the press and didn’t read the papers, leaving press folks to conclude that he wasn’t interested in reality (it apparently never ocurred to them that he has others who are paid to digest all the details in the press and elsewhere and give him only what is important).
Hence the press and the left (hmmm, the former is a subset of the latter) talk about “reality based community” as opposed to whatever Bush belongs to.
This model may be one of the many reasons they can’t understand Bush, who is more solidly connected to reality than people who come up with these kinds of theories. It also allows them to feel superior to conservatives and the Bush whitehouse.
The idea that the left is ccnnected well to reality would be funny if the left didn’t do too much damagae.
Well, this is absurd. NM is 53 – 47 for Bush, with 98% reporting. And they STILL WON’T CALL IT!
Jamie,
You are on! Letís see who else we can get outside that crawl space!
Now with 99% reporting in Ohio Bush is up 144215 over Kerry.
Screw this.
In 2008 I’m voting for a monarchy.
Well, you narrowly missed Empress Teresa.
The Democrats are now just increasing their losses through their refusal to concede whilst they (presumably) consider their legal options.
Hey boys, wake up and smell the roses. You got your arses kicked. Suck it in !
Well done to the USA for a sensible election result. This Australian is proud of you.
Forget absurd, this is insane. NV is finished counting, Bush wins the state. But none of the networks will say so.
But there is still hope for Duchess Hillary!
Let’s hope they audit Empress Teresa.
Oh, and there is literally one county in Ohio that hasn’t finished reporting. They’re supposedly at 405 and Bush has double Kerry’s vote. This is from the CNN site.
Watching Fox News for a few minutes, they said that there may be a call on New Mexico forthcoming. The reason it has not yet been called is due to a question on the number of absentee ballots outstanding. Nonetheless,they’re saying Pete Domenici may call the state for Bush, with the caveat of those votes.
That said, they are also saying that if either NV or NM gets called, the president may still speak tonight.
that should be 40%. not 405.
To clarify, they say the absentee ballots remaining in NM may be somewhere in the range of 100-200K. They do say that most of the absentees in Bernalillo County, the largest in the state (great, I spent sixteen years of my life in that state, and now I can barely even remember how to spell Albuquerque…) have been counted.
CBS gave Bush Nevada, but they’re withholding Ohio. Grrr…
And at the risk of spamming, the AP map at C-SPAN shows Nevada as called for Bush, 51-48 with 99% reporting.
ABC now calling Nevada. Wonder what on earth Fox is waiting on.
Nevada at 99% reported, New Mexico at 98%, Ohio at 99%, and Iowa at 99% and Bush has a solid lead in each. If you make the assumption that every single absentee ballot goes for Kerry, then it’s possible he could still win them, but that’s obviously absurd. And they weren’t making any such allowances in the states they have already called for Kerry.
Well, it’s just more of the same inability to face reality and unwillingness to give Bush so much as the time of day. In the long run this will help Bush and the Republicans even more as it will cause both the Democrats and the MSM to lose even more respect among moderate voters.
Bush has clearly won and that’s been clear for a couple of hours now–the MSM be damned–but I must admit that unlike Fool To Himself & Burden To Others, I’m not terribly pleased with our results for this election. Far too many Americans took the side of the terrorists to leave much comfort in the pit of my stomach.
This was the first election in which the blogs had an influence and that influence is still growing by leaps and bounds. Just think how things will stand at the next election. I fully expect many blogs to surpass the NYT in daily readership by that point. Power to the people!
The Associated Press is here to tell us that hope is on the way!
Kerry sends Edwards with message of hope
By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press | November 3, 2004
BOSTON — Unwilling to concede defeat, John Kerry dispatched smooth-talking running mate John Edwards to deliver his trademark message of hope to supporters and a divided nation waiting for a president. . . .
The solid lead in NM suddenly dissapeared. This stinks of good old Dem vote fraud.
This is seriously fucking pathetic. What sort of game is the media playing here? Report the obvious.
Now NM shows that only 94% have reported. That state makes NJ appear like a paragon of moral rectitude. I give up.
Tune in tomorrow for the court fights,
That does seem a tad suspicious, the margin is down to under 2,000 now. I wouldn’t be too concerned though, AP has already called Nevada for Bush, which should be enough.
I’m just worried that Kerry’s going to manage to drag this through the courts for who-knows-how-long…
Fresh Air,
Here’s a key portion of the quote you gave us from the Barking Moonbat kennel…
Now they’ll try to “redefine politics” to escape from the “game” they aren’t doing so well at. They’ll work to tear down the system we have an put their absolutist/totalitarion reactionary vision in its place. The next four years won’t be pretty. Bush marginally enhanced his position. The first since his dad to win an outright popular majority and increased his EV count (I think, not sure about that). Now its time to shine the spotlight on the reactionary cockroaches and get them scurrying around in all their nauseating loathesomeness. (Sorry, but 3 hrs sleep isn’t enough for me in my advancing maturity.)
What’s the over-under on a Kerry concession?
Just quickly looking things over (using ABC)…
W has ~12K lead in NM, ~15K+ in IA, ~14K in WI, and ~135K in OH.
So far so good
Congratulations,the world can breathe easy again.
When the history of the World comes to be written,it will be celebrated that in the year 2004 civilisation as we know it was saved by Dennis the Peasant and his Dogs.
Knuckle–
Concession? Didn’t you hear Breck Girl? We’re conceding nothing!
Hey, I mean honestly…on a morning when Mara Liasson says the GOP “will hold control of Congress for two more years [or decades, honey!]“–rather than make unprecedented gains in the House and Senate–I think these people really do live in a parallel universe.
Jay Cost is nailing it: