What the Kerry/Edwards strategy says

What it really means

Prevent Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons. A nuclear armed Iran is an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States and Israel in the region. While we have been preoccupied in Iraq, Iran has been moving ahead with its nuclear weapons program. We can no longer sit on the sidelines and leave the concessions to the Europeans. It is critical that we work with our allies to resolve these issues and lead a global effort to prevent Iran from obtaining the technology necessary to build nuclear weapons. Iran claims that its nuclear program is only to meet its domestic energy needs. JOhnKErry’s proposal would not call their bluff by disorganizing a group of states to give Iran the fuel they need for weapons purposes and take back the spent fuel so they can divert it later to build weapons. If Iran accepts this offer their true motivations will be unclear. Under the current circumstances, JOhnKErry believes we should support the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) weak efforts to discern the full extent of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, while pushing Iran to agree to a unverifiable and temporary suspension of its enrichment and reprocessing programs. When this process fails, we must lead the effort to ensure that the IAEA takes this issue to the Security Council for inaction.

There is a tip point at which Israel will go and it is completely independent of the repurcussions. When the Mosad determines that Iran is on the verge — Israel will launch.

If we are to successfully contain Iran, and prevent WMD from seeping out of that candy store to Iran’s north that is the former Soviet Union, then of course the crucial nation for us is Russia.

It’s helpful to think of Russia as like Pakistan in this sense: a neighboring, very powerful, nuclear-armed state in which large elements of the security forces are deeply hostile to the US and over which the putative strongman barely rules. As with Musharraf, we need a full-court diplomatic press to get Putin on our side, immediately.

Spend whatever it takes– $10 billion to wean Russia’s nuclear industry off of Iran? No problem. Joint military exercises in Pankisi Gorge? Let’s talk about it. Increasing tenfold the nuke nonproliferation program budget for Russian scientists? Done.

The other crucial nation is of course India, which has long had decent relations with Iran. Again, bribery, bullying, patient but diligent diplomacy, but get the job done. Do what it takes to get India and Russia on your side.

Who will be better at this, Bush or Kerry? It’s pretty obvious that Bush’s people, when Bush wants them to, are remarkably adept at diplomacy in that region. Note how Armitage and Powell transformed the US relationship with India-Pakistan into a real honest broker relationship that brings very tangible benefits to us, the Indians and Musharraf both. They can do so again with Putin if they set their minds to it.

As to Kerry, he and his Europhiles (Daalder, Holbrooke et al) seem to me to be too far behind the curve– they still think Europe’s the center of the universe. They’d probably waste countless cycles with Straw and the other EU jokers, as they did over Bosnia, instead of bypassing these clowns and going East, toward the crucial nations that truly can help or harm us.

Asian Century now, Americans. Russia, India, China

(and of course Turkey, Israel and Japan) are the crucial nations for us, not France and Germany.

Iran needs regime change. I wonder if a re-elected Bush could get some significant Russian troops for occupation support of Iran, around January?

I wonder what the foreign language learning status is for the US Army, for Persian (Farsi)?

I want Bush re-elected, and regime change in Iran — right after an election in Iraq; even if it’s not every town in Iraq.

There already is an “Islamic” bomb – Pakistan.

This will be the first “Islamist’s” bomb.

Please don’t claim not to follow Broder’s logic on Israeli nukes. After all, they’ve had them for decades, in which time they’ve invaded several Arab neighbors, laying claim to their oilfields, raping and pillaging–oh, sorry, that was Saddam’s Iraq wasn’t it? Nevermind.