oYur points are excelent, and, as usual, well expressed.

I believe that the “gut feeling” factor is going to play a large part in the outcome of this election, to McCain’s advantage. There are a lot of voters who are not sufficiently into politics to be concerned bout “issues” and “nuances of issues, and “in depth analyses” to make well-reasoned decisions, who are uneasy about Obama: about his smug self-assurance, his evidence of narcissism, his big spending agenda, even the racial bias of many of his supporters. I don’t think the polls aare covering them, and they well contribute to a “surprising upset.”