We need to face the facts.
We can’t just say that since we don’t agree with the decisions that voters appear poised to make, that they’re somehow not making those decisions. The arguments against Obama are things that could CHANGE the direction of the race, but as of now, they are NOT the electoral facts of the race in and of themselves.
Barring as of now unforeseen and highly improbable events, an Obama landslide is far more likely than a McCain one. Perhaps even far more likely than a McCain squeaker.
Watching the polls make me suspect that a McCain victory could very likely look like this. The following scenario involves McCain overcoming deficits in state races which are smaller than the national deficit.
1). Hanging on by the skin of his teeth to all of the Bush 04 states in the east and midwest except for Iowa.
2). Picking up one electoral vote in Maine’s Second District.
3). Losing New Mexico but winning Colorado and Nevada, thereby pushing him to 270.
Of any McCain victory scenario, this appears to me the one with the highest probability of success (though the probability of it failing is higher) and it would probably involve a defeat in the popular vote.
A Wild Card McCain victory scenario would involve picking up either Wisconsin or Minnesota, which would then bring him to 270 exactly (again, if he held all the Bush 04 states in the east and midwest except for Iowa). Then he’d win even if he lost New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. And it wouldn’t require him to win Maine’s Second District.
I totally discount, incidentally, the prospect of McCain picking up Pennsylvania. I think it’s an Obama lock. And Michigan? Forget it. McCain was 100% right to allocate his resources elsewhere.
The problem with any McCain victory scenario, obviously, is that it seems highly improbable that Obama will not pick up at least ONE Bush 04 state in the east and/or midwest besides Iowa. If he gets even one, game over. If I had to guess, I’d say that Virginia is the most likely to fall–largely because of demographic shifts in Northern Virginia (even since 06) that favor the Democrats.
I’ll also add that even a drastic narrowing of the national head-to-head poll numbers wouldn’t significantly alter the fundamentals of the race at this point, despite the fact that state polls are lagging indicators. McCain would need to be up by something like 5-10 (which just ain’t gonna happen) in the national numbers for him to see safe margins in battleground states where he is now, in some cases, behind by double digits. It’s time to quit dwelling so much on those national numbers.
