I too believe that McCain will win for roughly the reasons you give. IMO, Obama’s problem is not so much “You’re beautiful, I love you, now change,” but “our self-esteem and worth as a nation will be decided by the citizens of other nations”–no real American would accept such a formulation.

However, given that the Republicans have held most of the marbles the last 10 years, it’s hard to argue that the Democrats ruined the game. McCain’s hands are tied on the economy, he has to distance himself from Bush and the Republican leadership.