Roger’s Rules

By Roger Kimball

Bio

Get Updates From Roger Kimball
A Comment About

The crisis in Georgia, 9/11, and the lessons of gratitude

August 10, 2008 - 7:52 am - by Roger Kimball
RAH
2008-08-10 11:24:07

I doubt that the war between Georgia and Russia will make people think they need a strong commander in chief like John McCain. Those who are inclined toward passivism and isolationism will use this as a lesson not to get involved in overseas adventures in Russia’s backyard.

To be practical, there are serious risks to US involvement in the Georgian/ Russian war. The Black Sea is the Russians ocean and they control it. The only sea route from Romania to get troops and supplies is across the Black Sea and subject to interdiction. Turkey was not amenable to using their territory for the invasion of Iraq. We have to depend on a long supply line from Kuwait. I doubt that Turkey with Erdogan and the new islamcist direction the country is going in, would be inclined to support American adventurism in Georgia. They are not the same as Attaturk’s Turkey on the 1950’s, which was a strong bulwark against the USSR.

Our present war in Afghanistan is not doing well. The support route is through Pakistan and they are losing the Khyber Pass to the Taliban and Baitullah Mehsud. The only other route for logistical support in through Russia. If we lose Pakistan as an ally and Musharaff is impeached, we are without a good retreat path. We can get the personnel out but the armor will be left behind. That is a worst-case scenario. We may get them out through Turkmenistan but that country is a pro Russia ally and the cost could be huge.
Then over the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. I cannot imagine that we would invade Iran just to get our armor and personnel out which is the other route.

We cannot get a strong force other than by air to Georgia by land or sea.
The closest airbase is Incirlik in Turkey and I do not think they will allow us to use our basing rights to attack Russian forces and get them involved in the war.

I do agree that Russia should be pushed back, that this is a bad lesson, but I do not see how this can be done without huge risks, So to be realistic, Obama’s waffle position is not relevant since this is a case we can not actually do an effective military intervention. At this point only a military intervention will have any effect against Russia