Boris you write:
Or you could calculate a linear trend on data since 2001. IF you use GISS, you get a trend of 0.013(+/- 0.02) deg C/year. So the trend itself is actually positive. But as you can also see, the uncertainty is so wide that we can’t rule out a trend that is double the worst case predictions.

BUT a trend of .013 +/- .02 is not positive, it could be as high as
.013+.02 or as low as .013-.02 = -.007 which is NEGATIVE. Just as you can’t rule out a trend that is double the worse case prediction, you can’t rule out the case that the things will get cooler, at least based on the facts you just supplied.

I think that the science of climate modeling is just not good enought yet to make it predict the kinds of things we are demanding of it.