JPT @162

You tried to claim in late March that there was a trend toward decreased approval for Obama. The basis of your claim was one data point – his approval rating in late March. Chuck linked to a Zogby online poll to support this (your) claim.

I pointed out that a trend cannot be discerned from a single data point because AT LEAST two points are required to define a line and you had not selected a second data point. I pointed out that the Zogby poll was a clear outlier.

You kept harping about the election. It appeared you were selecting the results of the November election as your second data point. I pointed out that this is statistical nonsense – you were mixing up apples with oranges.

You then tried to weasel your way out of it by claiming you were just setting up a trap for David S (and, no, we are not one and the same). But David S did not step in your ‘oh so clever’ trap and neither did I.

After much back and forth (and considerable abusive language from you), you FINALLY settled on a second data point: Obama’s approval rating in late Jan/early Feb, which was about 66% – as determined by the Gallup tracking poll.

I said – okay – if you want to compare his approval rating in late Jan to his approval rating in late March (when it was about 59%), then – yes – there was a slight decrease in his approval rating over this two-month time period. But I also cautioned you that drawing long-term conclusions by extrapolating data obtained over a short period of time is not always accurate.

You also tried to claim in late March that those who voted for Obama in November now disapprove of his performance. I pointed out that there was no evidence to support this conclusion. One would have to conduct a poll in which the question was asked – did you vote for Obama in November and, if so, do you now approve or disapprove of his performance? I stated I was not aware of any such poll. I said if you were aware of one then please provide me with the link.

Did you provide a link? No. You ducked. You acted like a petulant child and resorted to temper tantrums and started calling me a ‘moron’ for questioning your unsubstantiated claims. Grow up!

Although I warned you in March not to extrapolate the data, you did so anyway in the May thread. You asserted again that Obama’s approval ratings had decreased. Both David S and I provided you with links demonstrating – once again – that you were incorrect. Obama’s approval rating in early May was about 67%. In other words, his approval rating in May had increased ever so slightly relative to late March.

Did this register with you? No, of course not. The actual data did not support your foregone conclusion, so you did what you seem to be in the habit of doing. You immediately resorted to your standard retort of calling me a ‘moron’.

You then went on to assert in May that a Rasmussen Poll (which relied on likely voters) is more accurate than a poll that relies on anyone who happens to answer the telephone. I tried to explain to you that a ‘likely’ voter is a voter who has voted in many previous elections. Historically, likely voter polls tend to include more older, white republicans. I tried to explain to you that the world is changing and many ‘unlikely’ voters (especially younger and/or ethnic minorities) voted for Obama in November.

Did this register? No. You simply ignored it and called me a moron – again. Can’t you come up with something more original than calling people morons and idiots?

In the May thread you also asserted that Obama was losing support among Independents. I provided links demonstrating that Obama had gained support among Independents between March and May. David S did as well.

As expected – you resorted to more abusive language, called me a moron, claimed I did not know how to read a graph, and that the data showed the precise opposite (when – in fact – it did not).

At no point – in any of these numerous exchanges (with me or David S) – did you provide a link to support any of your assertions. Indeed, you made the utterly ridiculous statement that YOU did not have to provide links because you are giving the poor befuddled Obama supporters a much needed ‘homework assignment’. You directed us to use data from late last year. LOL!

Now you are trying to claim that I am one cherry picking the data. No. I was trying to get you to select AT LEAST TWO VALID data points in order to determine the slope of the line. YOU initially chose the second data point from late Jan/early Feb when his approval rating was about 66% in the Gallup tracking poll. The most recent Gallup tracking poll places his approval rating at about 64%. If you want to assert that this is indicative of a significant decrease in approval, then be my guest. But I feel compelled to warn you that the margin of error in this poll is +/- 3%.

Yes – of course – there have been minor fluctuations over short periods of times. They are statistically insignificant. I will say – as I have been saying all along – that if one insists on determining a trend from polling data, then the trend line has been more or less flat. And – I will say once again – extrapolating this data is meaningless. It does not mean the trend line will remain flat, it does not mean it will increase and it does not mean it will decrease. It only means that over the past several months there has been no significant increase or decrease in Obama’s approval rating. I’m sorry if this annoys you, but they are facts.

But now you no longer want to use the data point from the Gallup poll taken in late Jan/early Feb. You want to use data from some poll taken late last year. It is meaningless to attempt to discern a trend in Presidential approval rating using data from late last year because Obama was not President at that time. YOU are cherry picking data AND mixing apples with oranges – again

Based on your past performances, I have good reason to believe that my response will be met by more abuse and/or simply ignored, but – of course – you will not provide any actual data to support your claims. Your MO seems to be tell a lie, keep telling it, call your opponent a moron, accuse your opponent of lying, dodging, ducking and weaving – in short – all the sins committed by you. Whether or not you realize it, your inability to face the facts, your refusal to provide any evidence supporting your claims and your ongoing belligerent name-calling are all hallmarks of a narcissist. It is very tiresome.

And if you want to tout credentials as evidence of math skills – fine – I have a PhD in ‘hard’ sciences and perform far more complex math than this every day. I tried to dumb it down for you as much as possible. I am so sorry if my attempt to explain junior high school level math to you was unsuccessful, but – unlike you – I can only sink so low.

Here is your homework assignment, JPT: Put up or shut up!