I think you and many others are making this a lot more complicated than it really is. Occam’s razor: he’s neither naive nor ideological. He’s simply paying off his friends and spanking his enemies. Everything he’s done to date makes sense if you look at it this way.

He’ll start losing support when his friends start realizing that their investments won’t come back until he changes his ways. Then he’ll change his ways. Even the carbon market will be a bust if the economy stays depressed.