Well, the latest CBO projection of the economy, for what it is worth, estimates that over the next 11 years we will produce $200 trillion in Gross Domestic Product, rising from $14 trillion now to $22 trillion then. Measured against that prospect, the loss of up to a $1 trillion in GDP in the current downturn doesn’t look that drastic. Neither does the $2 trillion or so in deficit spending it will take to keep losses that low. Indeed, CBO thinks that, without any changes in current law, the national debt in 2019 will be scarcely larger than it is today measured as a percentage of GDP. That picture of the future looks not very gloomy, and we’ll get there if Congress doesn’t, as usual, make the wrong decisions now and as we go along, like assuming that it knows best how to divide that projected pie, and claiming more of it so it can do so.
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