In response to questions, Standard & Poor’s today said that the ratings decision to lower the long-term rating to AA+ from AAA was not affected by the change of assumptions regarding the pace of discretionary spending growth. In the near term horizon to 2015, the U.S. net general government debt is projected to be $14.5 trillion (79% of 2015 GDP) versus $14.7 trillion (81% of 2015 GDP) with the initial assumption. . . .
In the near term horizon, by 2015, the U.S. net general government debt with the new assumptions were projected to be $14.5 trillion (79% of 2015 GDP) versus $14.7 trillion (81% of 2015 GDP) with the initial assumption – a difference of $345 billion.
In taking a longer term horizon of 10 years, the U.S. net general government debt level with the current assumptions would be $20.1 trillion (85% of 2021 GDP). With the original assumptions, the debt level was projected to be $22.1 trillion (93% of 2021 GDP).
The primary focus remained on the current level of debt, the trajectory of debt as a share of the economy, and the lack of apparent willingness of elected officials as a group to deal with the U.S. medium term fiscal outlook. None of these key factors was meaningfully affected by the assumption revisions to the assumed growth of discretionary outlays and thus had no impact on the rating decision.
The emphasis is mine. “The lack of apparent willingness of elected officials as a group to deal with the U.S. medium term fiscal outlook.” Think about that. Behind the antiseptic prose is a moral and political condemnation of the first water. Our political elites have failed us dismally.
The response? If you’re Harry Reid you read S&P’s opinion that “the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges” and then conclude that Congress should address their “weakness” by raising taxes! “The action by S&P,” said Reid, “reaffirms the need” for us to raise taxes on all you slobs out there. Like the president, Harry Reid calls this a “balanced approach,” but the balance in question, as John Boehner observed, means “We spend more, you pay more.” (Incidentally, Harry Reid should get together with the Treasury Department to work out a consistent story. Just when Harry Reid was saying that the S&P downgrade meant Congress should raise taxes, the Treasury Department was saying the S&P analysts got it all wrong, in which case, presumably, nothing to worry about and Congress would not have to raise taxes: which is it, boys? Note that this is a situation in which both cannot be right but both can very easily be wrong.)
It’s worth thinking carefully about this brisk reveille that Standard & Poor’s has brought us. As Amilya Antonetti noted in her interview with Neil Cavuto, the business community was not surprised by the news. Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin: they had seen the writing on the wall for months. S&P issued a warning last spring, which prompted Timothy Geithner’s little “no risk” ejaculation. The narrative is now up for grabs. The stakes could hardly be higher. The United States is at a crossroads. One way, the way advocated by our political elites, is the Keynesian path. We travel that road endeavoring to spend, and tax, our way out of debt. We have grand, economy-wrecking schemes according to which every auto shall travel 56 miles on a gallon of gasoline. Coal will be taxed and regulated to oblivion. Light bulbs will be toxic, cast a sickly light, but be “energy efficient.” And all Americans will be dependent on the federal government for their basic necessities.
Alexis de Tocqueville came up with the name for that road, and F.A. Hayek made the phrase famous: it is the Road to Serfdom. Vice President Joe Biden said that the Tea Partiers “acted like terrorists” by having the temerity to criticize the recent decision to increase the federal debt by $2.5 trillion. Here’s the question: how much more proof do you need to see that business as usual in Washington is ruining the country? Federal debt at $16.7 trillion. Unemployment above 9 percent. The credit worthiness of the United States downgraded for the first time in history. Isn’t it time to wake up and smell the latte?
More at the Tatler: “The King of Excuses“