Come November who knows what we will be talking about–maybe Afghanistan and Pakistan or India/Pak relations go sour, ok, worsen from where they are now; maybe there is a war bet I/P or Israel and Iran or whomever; North Korea (once Olympic are over China “ain’t going to cooperate with us in dealing with ‘nut-thing’”; Russia (whose foreign policy is to keep oil prices high); Iran; Israel/PLA; Bin Laden/Al Qaeda; or Iraq. Well, you all get the point.

That said, and it pains me to say this, all things being equal Obama is likely to win. I can point to many factors, as to why this is: admittedly none substantive.

But things do not tend to be equal. The election is far from decided, but advantage Obama.

Mr. Roger: “Bad things happen to good countries.” darn good line. You are obviously paraphrasing that famous book of about 30 yrs ago by A Rabbi who lost a child: “why bad things happen to good people.”

To anyone who has not read it, that book is still good read today.

How many of the “inevitable Obama” crowd previously were solemnly intoning Hillary’s inevitability?

I think most scholars look back on statistical data on national data that strongly suggests that the same party is usually unsuccessful in succeeding itself for three White House terms. This is fool’s gold because it is premised on the notion that the past will predict the future. Why this is a trap can be understood simply by differentiating past from present events: they are unique, and dining out on historical analogies generally yields a meager dinner.

There is another way to understand this–the fallacy of induction, noted by Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan: a turkey has every reason to believe that Thanksgiving Day will resemble exactly the 364 preceding days–abundant food and water and first rate care. Not always so. And this year, because the Democrats nominated not only the first African-American candidate, but also (perhaps, depending on one’s views of George McGovern) the first moderate core leftist candidate in U.S. history, there are plenty of historical differentiators that suggest either that, 1), the future may not resemble the past, or 2), Thanksgiving may come early this November.

However, this eerily reminds me of the ’92 presidential election. An aging, Republican war hero with a history of trying to please the left vs. the immature, narcissistic, double-talking, lying socialist championed by the MSM. Even Ross Perot has been acting up lately! I just hope the outcome is not the same.

Also, sometimes it seems that Senator McCain’s campaign is just as incompetent as George Bush’s ’92 re-election campaign. If he cannot capitalize on B. Hussein Obama’s support of the Supreme Court’s suicidal decision in favor of terrorists then Sen. McCain deserves to lose.

For 8 years, the Clinton administration ignored Islamic terrorist attacks, coddled these same terrorists and actively supported our enemies. Then we ended up with thousands of Americans murdered on 9/11. How will the U.S. (or Israel) fare with a President B. Hussein Obama “talking” with terrorists like Ahmadinejad or Kim Jong-Il?